Trade Review - Ryan Howard for Nelson Cruz/Adam Wainwright/Roy Halladay

The final trade prior to the league's deadline, and the second of the day for the Macafeys, involves two teams heading for the consolation bracket during the playoffs. The Macafeys move Nelson Cruz, Adam Wainwright, and Roy Halladay to The Balls for Ryan Howard, as both teams look towards future keeper plans.

I think Tim gave up too much to get Ryan Howard. Howard is a beast who can hit 50 HR a year, but he's hit .262 since his MVP season in 2006, and he'll be 30 to start next season. When Howard was named MVP, he hit .313 with 58 HR, astounding numbers that I think will be an outlier for his career stats. Howard has power, but I don't like his chances to hit over .300 again. Tim did receive a talented player, as Howard will be his best first baseman and power hitter heading into the 2010 season, but I think he could have received a little better deal for the players he offered.

Those players include two of the best pitchers in the game, Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay. Halladay is putting up one of the best strikeout rates of his career, and he continues to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. Halladay will be 33 to start next season, but there's no reason to assume that he will not continue to be an ace in the AL. With 200 less starts in his career than Halladay, Wainwright has less of a track record of success than the Cy Young winner, but the young pitcher has shown this year that he has the talent to be one of the top 10 pitchers in the MLB. It's a sign of his talent that his numbers have gotten better as the year has moved along. If Brubaker keeps both pitchers along with new White Sox ace Jake Peavy, he will have a collection of pitching talent that could top any other team in the league. Typically I don't like to keep pitchers, but if you can amass a group of talented aces it can be worth the risk to keep them.

The third player in the trade, Nelson Cruz, looks like he could be a rich man's Mike Cameron. I was down on the late-blooming OF at the beginning of the year, but he has put up some impressive numbers this year with 26 HR and 17 SB. Brubaker may have to drop someone he likes to make room for Cruz on his keeper list, but he could be getting a top-20 OF if Cruz can keep his batting average in the .270-.280 range.

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Trade Review - Alex Rios/Andrew Bailey for Curtis Granderson

In the first of two trades by the Macafeys prior to the deadline, Tim trades Alex Rios and Andrew Bailey to the Screaming Lemurs for Curtis Granderson. The Lemurs appear to be nearly assured of a playoff spot, while the Macafeys are most likely headed for the consolation bracket.

With Andrew Bailey, the Lemurs now have a third closer to go along with Heath Bell and Leo Nunez. Bailey will be a strong #2 closer behind Bell, and this relief depth will help the Lemurs as they contend for the championship. He should have a handful of saves the rest of the year, and his high strikeout totals will come in handy. The Lemurs lose some power in this trade, but I believe the tradeoff is worth it to get more saves, and Rios's offensive potential should help make up for the loss of Granderson. Rios is only hitting .265 this year, but he has shown in the past that he can be a better hitter than Granderson and he can match Granderson's ability for steals. Rios has yet to have the breakout season that everyone has expected of him, but he is a decent keeper for next year due to his combination of power and speed.

Granderson is having a career year due to his HR and SB totals, and it seems obvious that the Macafeys like him better than Rios. I'm not too high on Granderson due to his inability to hit for high average throughout most of his career, but I think he can be a solid source for HR as he gets older. I don't think we can count on him being a 20/20 guy next year, but he should chip in enough steals to make him a top-20 outfielder. Whether or not he will be an upgrade over Rios in years to come is the main question, as the Macafeys are clearly betting that he will.

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Trade Review - Hunter Pence/Zack Greinke for Joey Votto

Last Sunday was the trade deadline in our league, and we had quite a bit of activity as teams tried to either improve for the playoffs or for next year. Three trades happened last week, and I hope to get to all of them by tomorrow night.

In the first trade before the deadline, the Butt Admirals traded Joey Votto to my team, Adrian's Revenge, for Zack Greinke and Hunter Pence. As presently situated, I didn't believe my team was strong enough to contend in the playoffs if I made them, so I made the decision to try and improve my keepers for next year by trading away some players that weren't in my plans for future domination. I felt that Joey Votto would be a good solid hitter to build around; at the age of 26, he'll be entering his prime heading into next season. Votto has consistently hit well, with a batting average well over .300 every month except for August, and he's had a slugging percentage of .500 or more during those same months. I think Votto will be a solid power producer, capable of hitting 30 HR with a great batting average, and I look forward to having him on my team for years to come.

Kimball strengthens his pitching staff heading into the postseason, which will allow him a better chance of competing against teams such as The $5 Footlongs and Orc Mischief. Zack Greinke has been a top-ten pitcher this year, and even though his team struggles to get him Wins, he has the talent to be a top-five pitcher next year. I don't like keeping pitchers because of the risk of injury; I wish I hadn't kept Ervin Santana this year, and I'm sure a lot of people wish they hadn't trusted Jake Peavy or Brandon Webb as keepers. You never know what can happen to a pitcher, and I prefer to roll the dice on B-and-C-list pitchers in the draft.

I saw Hunter Pence as a fringe-type keeper, and he might be able to make Kimball's keeper list for next year. Pence is a very streaky player, and that frustates me in a head-to-head league. He would have a terrific month, and then struggle for a month. He definitely has power and can provide some steals, though I doubt his ability to continue to steal since he gets caught almost as often as he succeeds, and he could be a very strong outfielder if he can put everything together from month to month.

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Regrets and Satisfaction

With the season now two-thirds finished, I wanted to highlight some moves I've regretted making and some moves that I haven't. With so many people fighting for a playoff spot in our league, it seems like any one of moves that I regret making could end up being the difference between the championship bracket and the consolation bracket. Let's take a look at some of those moves.

Regrets

1. Keeping Ervin Santana

In eleven starts this year, after missing a month and a half of the season due to injury, Santana has been a complete bust. He's given up four runs or more in over half his starts, and he's only pitched six innings or more in four starts. I'm still hoping he'll turn things around, but it's not easy to deal with his struggles knowing that I could have kept Nelson Cruz (ranked 41st this season by Yahoo) instead of Santana.

2. Drafting Magglio Ordonez

As I mentioned in my look back at the first round of our draft, I thought that Ordonez would be a dependable source of batting average and RBI, along with 20 HR. He's been far from it this year, with production that ranks behind outfielders such as David DeJesus, Randy Winn, and Garrett Anderson. Like i said before, I wish I had taken Jermaine Dye.

3. Drafting Joel Hanrahan

I had Hanrahan in 2008 when he took over the closer role in Washington after Jon Rauch got traded, and I thought that he would be a cheap source for saves and strikeouts this year. Hanrahan did save 5 games before losing his job due to his 7.71 ERA with the Nats. Closers I could have drafted instead of Hanrahan: Chad Qualls, George Sherrill, or Rafael Soriano.

4. Missing out on Adam Jones

Prior to the draft, Adam Jones had been on my list of young guys that I was excited about. Ultimately he didn't fall quite far enough for me, and he's having a great season. In retrospect, I should have reached for him with my previous pick, instead of Jhonny Peralta.

5. Trading Carlos Lee for Brandon Webb

This happened in another league, but it was to Jonathan, manager of the Dinos, and it hurts more now knowing that Webb will likely make just one start for my team. Both my offense and pitching are average in that league, so losing Lee hurts as well.

Satisfactions (Moves that I'm glad I made or didn't make)

1. All my trades

I'm happy with everyone I received through trades this year. These include: Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Matt Kemp, Robinson Cano, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Kosuke Fukudome (sortof). Morneau is having a monster year, I think Kemp's going to be a star, Cano has turned things around, Mauer's having a career year thanks to his newfound power, and Jimenez has pitched great this year.

2. Picking up Nyjer Morgan

I picked up Morgan near the end of April; since then he's stolen 26 bases and is leading my team in steals.

3. Picking up Ricky Nolasco

The Balls dropped Nolasco when he was sent down to the minors, and I picked him up before he cleared waivers. Since coming back from the minors, Nolasco has a 2.71 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, 5 Wins and 73 strikeouts.

4. Drafting Kevin Gregg

During our draft, the Cubs' closer role was still up for grabs between Gregg and Carlos Marmol. I went with the guy with previous closer experience, he got the job, and he now leads my team in Saves.

5. Highlighting J.A. Happ and Clayton Richard as possible sleepers

This isn't a move that I made, but I did write in a post at the start of the season that Richard and Happ could have value this year. Happ has 2.97 ERA with 7 Wins for the year, and Richard has had some value as a matchups type pitcher. Richard is headed to Petco in the Peavy deal, and he could have even more value there.

Around the League

I asked the owners in our league to email me with their best and worst moves this year. Here are their responses (as of July 2nd):

Ben P. (Screaming Lemurs) - Positives: "Not too many difference makers unfortunately. Randy Wells has been a pretty good find so far."

Negatives: "Picked up and dropped Ryan Franklin."

Micah (Dissect Yourself) - Positives: "The move that has benefited me most has been picking up Brandon Inge from free agency early in the year. He's been one of my best and most consistent producers."

Negatives: "The biggest move I regret is drafting Chris Davis with the first overall pick."

Nate (Naterade) - Positives: "Keeping Justin Upton."

Negatives: "Keeping Russell Martin. My other really bad move was drafting Lastings Milledge and holding onto him after he got demoted. I don't know why I can't drop him."

For the other owners in our league that want to complain or crow about moves they've made this year, feel free to post them in the comments.

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Trade Review - Josh Beckett for Derek Jeter

Here is the second trade between these two teams, in which Orc Mischief sends Derek Jeter to Naterade in exchange for Josh Beckett. I feel that people tend to overrate both these players, but let's see how this trade will affect these two teams.

Orc Mischief has done a good job of strengthening his team's pitching this year through trades; in his previous trade with Naterade, he received Jered Weaver in exchange for Jose Guillen. Clint's team has had mediocre records in the pitching categories this year, and the addition of Beckett should help him win an extra game or two each week, helping him in his quest for a playoff spot. After an awful first month, Beckett has been very good the rest of the year. One of the reasons that I think people overrate him is that they overlook his injury history and the inconsistency he's had as a starter throughout his career, instead tending to focus on the team he plays for and the opportunities for wins that team gives him. It can be very hard to predict wins, as evidenced by the fact that Jason Marquis has as many wins as Beckett despite playing for a team with a worse record. Though he hasn't been consistent enough in his career to be considered an ace, Beckett is a very solid pitcher due to his ability to get strikeouts. He's put up numbers similar to this season's in the past, so I think that, barring an injury, he should continue his dominating season on the mound. Clint was able to make this trade without losing much offensively thanks to the offensive resurgence of Alexei Ramirez and his pickup of Elvis Andrus a couple of weeks ago.

Derek Jeter tends to be overrated because he has a reputation as a power/speed shortstop, when he hasn't had a 20/20 season since 2004 and he has produced more than 15 steals once since that same year. With that said, Derek Jeter is on pace to have a season to rival any other in his career. He's already hit 10 HR and 17 SB with a .321 average this year. I don't think he'll keep his current paces up, but he should continue to be, at the very least, a decent source of Runs and BA. Naterade's offensive record hasn't been very good this year and Jeter should help Nate in a couple categories each week, but I'm not certain that getting Jeter will help secure Nate a playoff spot. Losing Beckett will weaken this pitching staff, but hopefully Jeter can make up for it on offense.

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Tip of the Cap to Order of the Phoenix

Just weeks after I put them last in the latest power rankings, Order of the Phoenix proceeded to kick my ass 9-1 in the last matchup heading into the All-Star break. The only category I beat him in was steals, 5-4. Mark's team put up some incredible stats in that week: 17 HR, 62 RBI, .334 BA, and 9 Saves. Here are some of the his stars for that week:

Ryan Ludwick: .481/6/4/15

Paul Konerko: .391/5/3/10

Pablo Sandoval: .333/4/3/11

Rafael Soriano: 4 Saves (after having 8 the previous 13 weeks).

Lots of amazing performances that week for the Order of the Phoenix, and I tip my cap to them.

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Revisiting the First Round

Since we are halfway through the 2009 season, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at the first round of our draft. With such a long season, it can be easy for fantasy owners to forget what their strategies were and the players they had pegged as "can't miss" picks heading into the draft. It's possible that in looking back at our draft moves, we can learn from our successes and mistakes and apply those lessons to future drafts. Let's take a look back at that first round.

For those who aren't in our league and find themselves confused by the lack of fantasy studs such as Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and David Wright in this round, this is a 12-team H2H keeper league in which we are able to keep seven players each year without any restrictions. I will list each owner's place in the league standings and their pick, along with the player's current stats and Yahoo ranking. (Stats listed in BA/Runs/HR/RBI/SB and Wins/Saves/K's/WHIP/ERA formats.) Click here if you would like to read the original post along with some of the opinions of the other owners in the league.

1. Dissect Yourself (4th)

Chris Davis (1B/3B)

Stats: .203/31/15/33/0

Yahoo Ranking: 466

It's hard not to take a 23-year-old player who hits .285 with 17 HR in 80 games during their major league debut, but Davis has been very disappointing this year. The power is there, but the average is a killer. With Justin Smoak crushing the ball in the minors, there's a possibility that Davis's future playing time may be in question, and Micah may be wishing that he had taken Alexei Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis instead.

2. Orc Mischief (7th)

Alexei Ramirez (2B/SS/OF)

Stats: .272/36/10/39/12

Yahoo Ranking: 113

The Cuban Missile was looking like a bust after a horrendous April, but he's turned things around to hit .282 over the past two months, including 7 HR in June. He's on pace to outdo most of last year's numbers, especially in steals, and he should be one of a handful of second basemen to reach the 20/20 level. Clint should be happy with how this pick has turned out for him.

3. Order of the Phoenix (12th)

Francisco Liriano (SP)

Stats: 4/0/80/5.62/1.52

Yahoo Ranking: 1283

Though Chris Davis hasn't produced at the level that many expected of him, he's not nearly the bust that Francisco Liriano has been. Davis will only hurt you in one category each week, while Liriano has hurt owners in WHIP and ERA all season long. The strikeout numbers are nice, but Liriano has been far worse than I or anyone else expected. Liriano's season did improve in June when he posted a 3.77 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in five starts, a small hook to hang your hopes on for a midseason turnaround, but I'm pretty sure that Mark would rather have had Yovani Gallardo instead.

4. Butt Admirals (6th)

Brad Lidge (RP)

Stats: 0/14/28/7.57/1.94

Yahoo Ranking: 906

Brad Lidge is on pace to get to 28 Saves this year, but he's been anything but lights out and I wouldn't bet on him getting there. He's missed time due to injury but he hasn't been that effective when healthy, and I'm not sure how secure his hold is on the Phillies' closer role. It's possible that they may use his injury woes in order to DL him as a roundabout way of demoting him without the public humiliation if he doesn't turn things around. Kimball was counting on Lidge to anchor his bullpen, but Lidge has been anything but, and I'm sure that Kimball would like to have this pick back.

5. Summer Fox (10th)

Kevin Youkilis (1B/3B)

Stats: .314/49/14/47/4

Yahoo Ranking: 40

Our first player to find themselves ranked in the top 100, Youkilis has been a solid offensive contributor all across the board. A .300/100/30/100 season is within his reach, numbers which look very good compared to the rest of the hitters in our first round. Youkilis slumped in June, hitting .244, but he still managed to produce a .860 OPS. Rogstad should be very pleased with this pick.

6. Tossers (3rd)

Roy Oswalt (SP)

Stats: 4/0/83/4.02/1.30

Yahoo Ranking: 781

Roy Oswalt has not been his usual dominating self this season. If the season ended today, this would be the worst ERA and the second-worst WHIP of his career. Oswalt has been having problems with the long ball and free passes, which can kill any momentum that a pitcher has in a game. Oswalt did have a stellar June with 2 CG, a 3.14 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, and he has been more of a second-half pitcher the past two years, so there is hope that he can regain his past dominance. Still, I think Troost wishes he could have this pick back.

7. Screaming Lemurs (5th)

Adam Dunn (1B/OF)

Stats: .260/36/20/56/0

Yahoo Ranking: 76

Adam Dunn is Mr. Consistent. He's on pace for his fifth straight season of 40 HR and I bet he gets it. His average is better than it has been in recent years thanks to a hot April, but even if he hits .235 the rest of the way, it's palatable thanks to his power output. Ben P. wanted a power hitter and he got him. I don't think there's any regret with this pick.

8. The $5 Footlongs! (1st)

Rafael Furcal (SS)

Stats: .240/35/3/17/4

Yahoo Ranking: 665

I originally thought that Furcal was the best pick this round, as I thought that he was going to rebound to previous years' numbers of 30 steals and double-digit HR. I was very wrong about that. Furcal has been bad all year and his batting average appears to be in decline. Furcal's poor performance has him ranked behind quite a few shortstops this year, and I'm pretty sure that Jonathan would like a redo on this pick.

9. Naterade (2nd)

Robinson Cano (2B)

Stats: .300/49/12/42/4

Yahoo Ranking: 62

After a very hot start in April, Naterade used Cano as part of a package to get Mark Teixiera. Cano hasn't been quite as hot the past two months, hitting .271, but he is on pace to set career-highs in HR, Runs, and RBI. This isn't any concern of Nate's since he doesn't have Cano anymore, but I think he's fine with that pick since it got him Teixiera.

10. The Balls (11th)

Aubrey Huff (1B/3B)

Stats: .270/33/10/52/0

Yahoo Ranking: 149

Aubrey Huff has been a solid source for RBI this season, but his other offensive totals leave much to be desired. Huff is hitting .270 after hitting .304 and .280 the past two years, and Brubaker probably isn't happy with the 20-HR pace Huff's on right now since he thought he was getting the 30-HR hitter from 2008. Huff raised his average by hitting .291 in June, but his power numbers are on a downward trend. This is a disappointing performance for Brubaker, who was hoping to get a power hitter with his first pick. Huff hasn't been terrible due to his RBI's, but Bru did a lot better with his second pick, Jermaine Dye.

11. Adrian's Revenge (9th)

Magglio Ordonez (OF)

Stats: .260/29/3/24/3

Yahoo Ranking: 592

Magglio Ordonez has been a giant disappointment for me and the Tigers, and he's ridden the bench at times for both our teams. With the second-to-last-pick in the first round, I knew that all of the players with upside would be taken, so I wanted to get a dependable veteran bat. I wavered between picking Ordonez and Dye, but ultimately I went with Ordonez. I knew that he wouldn't hit more than 20 HR this year, but I reasoned that he was a solid hitter who could help my team by hitting .300 and driving in 100 RBI. Ordonez did hit .315 in May, but he also hit .235 in the other two months. In retrospect, I should have picked Dye.

12. Macafey (8th)

Matt Wieters (C)

Stats: .247/8/2/7/0

Yahoo Ranking: 978

I didn't like this pick when Tim made it because he already had a young catcher on his team named Geovany Soto. Tim reasoned that he could always trade one of them. Wieters has only been in the majors for a little over a month, and we can assume that he's still trying to figure out major-league pitching, but so far the returns on this pick have been small and Tim has yet to move one of his catchers. This was a pick towards the future and it's hard to make judgement on it yet with such a small sample size.

In looking back at our first round, most of us did poorly with our picks. Only three are currently ranked in the top 100 fantasy players, and quite a few aren't even ranked in the top 300. It would be interesting to look back at our drafts from previous years and compare them to this one, in order to see if this year was a fluke or if we really aren't good judges of fantasy talent, but I'm too lazy to do that work. One thing I do believe is that things can change from half to half, and we could be looking at this round very differently at the end of the season than from how we view it today. Maybe the first round isn't as important as we believe it to be, and it could be that your best hope is to get a player that won't hurt you as you build your team's strengths from the middle rounds of the draft. Next year I'm going to just throw a dart at a player list and see what comes up.

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Power Rankings

After a long delay, we have our second power ranking of the season. In this post I will be attempting to rank the 12 teams in my Yahoo H2H keeper league based on how I think they will perform the rest of the year. These rankings are purely subjective and I reserve the right to change my mind on a whim. The rankings will show up intermittently throughout the year, depending on how determined I am. I will be including each team's record as it stands at the beginning of this week, and I will be naming a player for each team that hasn't performed well and who, in my opinion, will continue to not do well. So far almost every team is still within striking distance of the playoffs, so the next couple of months should be exciting as we see how everything shakes out.

1. The $5 Footlongs (71-36-3)

The Footlongs retain the number one spot from the previous power rankings, due in no small part to the fact that he is 10 games ahead of anyone else. The Footlongs have been doing well offensively, thanks to fantasy studs such as Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, and Miguel Cabrera. Jonathan's team has been doing especially well in the SB and BA categories. He's had some great pitching lately from Kevin Slowey, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Edwin Jackson. Howie Kendrick and Delmon Young have been disappointing, and it might be time to give up on them. Adam Jones has had a nice breakthrough season this year, though he has slumped this past month. Jonathan will need a healthy Carlos Beltran if he wants to solidify his hold on first place for the rest of the season.

Player to sell: Delmon Young

2. Screaming Lemurs (56-50-4)

The Lemurs are currently in sixth place in the league standins, but they are only 4.5 games out of second and the stats they've put up this season indicate that they are much better than their current record. The Lemurs have a lot of speed and they've benefited from Juan Pierre's strong output during Manny's suspension. I've said it before, but this is a very well-balanced offense. Getting Aramis Ramirez back in a week or two will help a lot, but the Lemurs continue to get a lot of offense from a variety of players. His pitching staff has struggled a little bit, but it's quite a good collection of talent and I believe in their abilities to turn things around. When asked about his team, Posluch said, "I hate Mike Fontenot."

Player to sell: David Price

3. Orc Mischief (52-52-6)

Another team that I feel is better than their current record, Orc Mischief has put up some great offensive numbers this season. They've done a good job at picking up young players such as Nolan Reimold and Andrew McCutcheon throughout the year. Alexei Ramirez is starting to turn things around, Brad Hawpe is continuing to have a career year, and Mark Reynolds has been a nice surprise. The pitching staff doesn't have a lot of depth, but everyone has pitched well this year, and, with this offense, I think there will be a lot of 6-4 or 5-4 games.

Player to sell: Mike Cameron

4. Butt Admirals (56-41-13)

The Admirals have a solid team that is very competitive in the RBI, SB, BA, WHIP and Saves categories. Brad Lidge has struggled this year, but hopefully his time off will help him find last year's success. Ben Zobrist was a great pickup, as was Clint Barmes. Grady Sizemore and Joey Votto are back from their respective DL stints and the Admirals will count on their power production. The pitching staff has talent, but losing Edinson Volquez indefinitely shows this team's lack of pitching depth.

Player to sell: Vladimir Guerrero

5. The Tossers (58-46-6)

The Tossers have a lot of power and a great bullpen, but most of their success has depended on the strong starts by guys like Russell Branyan. Alex Rodriguez has sucked so far, so I guess I can't fault the Tossers for relying on guys like Branyan. Torii Hunter is having a career year, as was Raul Ibanez before he went on the DL. The pitching staff has been decent, but having Roy Oswalt pitch like the Roy Oswalt of years past would be a big addition. I think this team will make the playoffs, but not as a top-three team.

Player to sell: Roy Oswalt

6. Macafey (52-51-7)

After scuffling around in the bottom half of the league standings for most of the season, Macafey has made their way into the top half with some strong performances in the past month. They have a lot of offensive talent, but the team has underperformed for most of the year. Jimmy Rollins, Geovany Soto, and Mike Jacobs have all been disappointments, and David Wright has not hit for the power we expected of him. Derrek Lee and Adam Lind have done surprisingly well this year after underwhelming seasons last year, and Yovani Gallardo has been lights out for the past month. Pitching injuries have hurt this team, though Scott Downs, Roy Halladay, and Erik Bedard should be back in a week or two. This team has the talent to do well in the second half. When asked about his team's peformance this year, Tim replied, "We have not yet begun to fight! I wouldn't trade my team for any other on the road to the playoffs."

Player to sell: Milton Bradley

7. Naterade (56-48-6)

Naterade is currently ranked fourth in the standings, but I feel that they've been a bit lucky as their team hasn't been that good offensively compared to the rest of the league. Russell Martin has really been a disappointment, as was Lastings Milledge. Other than Mark Teixiera, Justin Upton, and Cody Ross, the offense has struggled for the past month. Maybe Andre Ethier will start to hit for a better average when Manny comes back from his suspension. The pitching staff has been very good, and Naterade has a plethora of closers, which will come in handy since Matt Lindstrom just went on the DL. Felix Hernandez has been great this year, and this could be the breakout season that we've come to expect from him. I think this team is a hitter or two away from making a deep run in the playoffs.

Player to sell: Lastings Milledge

8. Dissect Yourself (54-48-8)

Micah's pitching staff has done well so far, but I don't think they can keep it up. C.C. Sabathia has been disappointing, Wandy Rodriguez has been awful lately, Jose Contreras is old, and Gil Meche is inconsistent. At least Carlos Zambrano has pitched well this season. The offense is more talented, but this team has the worst BA in the league, thanks to free-swingers such as Chris Davis and Alfonso Soriano. Adrian Beltre is starting to heat up, and Chris Young has shown signs of life this month, but Jay Bruce and Matt Holliday have not exactly been carrying this team. Troy Tulowitzki is at least showing that he remembers how to be a fantasy stud. Micah had this to say about his team: I view my team this year like a bag of microwavable popcorn. My guys are playing great and you know there are going to be those last little kernels popping as you take the bag out of the microwave (see Bruce, Davis, Soriano, Young). And then I'll add the sweet melted butter (see: Sabathia - always a slow starter). Bon appetit."

Player to sell: Dan Uggla

9. Adrian's Revenge (52-55-3)

My team's driving me nuts. I've had some great performances from guys like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, and Ryan Zimmerman this year, but it seems like my team can't perform well at the same time. Kosuke Fukudome has been awful since I got him, Cameron Maybin was a bust during his time in the majors, and Magglio Ordonez needs to get in touch with Manny's hormone supplier. Thankfully Colby Rasmus is starting to look comfortable in the big leagues with eleven extra base hits this month, and Jhonny Peralta's power stroke is starting to return. The solid veterans that I thought I was drafting have really let me down this year, though. On the pitching side, Ervin Santana has been a bust and Scott Baker has been inconsistent. I think Ricky Nolasco will continue to improve in the second half, and Jordan Zimmerman will end up having a good year if he can continue his great strikeout rate. Hopefully my closer situation will stabilize and I'll get some more saves each week.

Player to sell: Pick 'em.

10. The Balls (41-63-6)

Here's where we get to the teams that are most likely out of the playoff race already. The Balls have gotten some solid power from Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Howard, but they've lost Carlos Quentin for a month and counting, and most of their outfield is underwhelming. This team should have better stolen base numbers than they've already put up, but they'll need Jason Bartlett to continue his career year. Shin-Soo Choo is looking like a great draft pick. The pitching staff took a big hit with the loss of Jake Peavy, and no other pitcher on this staff is doing well this month. In regards to his team, John said, " The Balls suffered from an acute case of collective social anxiety disorder this year, but they have dealt with the issue and are now ready for a heroic comeback." John also attributes his early season struggles to a lack of "paying attention".

Player to sell: Phil Hughes

11. Summer Fox (44-60-6)

The Fox has been hurt by Carlos Delgado's injury, Manny Ramirez's suspension, and Garrett Atkins poor year, all of which have contributed to them falling near the bottom of every fantasy category in our league. Stephen Drew and Orlando Hudson find themselves heading in the opposite directions as their early season surge/stumble begin to correct themselves. Better performances are needed out of Kevin Youkilis and Brandon Phillips if the Fox has any hope of reaching the playoffs. The pitching staff has been hurt by injury and ineffectiveness and there's not much hope of them rebounding. John Lackey should get better, but I'm not willing to make the same bet for Joba Chamberlain, Daisuke Matsuzaka, or Chien-Ming Wang.

Player to sell: Wang

12. Order of the Phoenix (33-75-2)

Does Mark even check his team anymore? He has four DL-eligible players and three empty DL spots. Injuries to fantasy studs like Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, and Scott Kazmir have hurt his team, but he hasn't made any attempt to replace them. David Ortiz has found his power stroke this month, but Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francouer and Vernon Wells have been awful. Justin Verlander and Joe Blanton have been good this year, but Francisco Liriano is the only other starter currently pitching in the majors and he's been terrible.

Player to sell: Too many to list

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Trade Review - Chris B. Young/Gil Meche for Ubaldo Jimenez/Kosuke Fukudome

We have our fourth trade of the season, the third one that I've been involved in and the first for Dissect Yourself. Dissect Yourself had made it clear that Ubaldo Jimenez was available and I had been looking to move Chris B. Young, so we worked out a deal on June 8th that had my team, Adrian's Revenge send Chris B. Young and Gil Meche for Ubaldo Jimenez and Kosuke Fukudome.

I've had Chris B. Young in our keeper league ever since his rookie year in 2007 when he hit 32 HR and stole 27 bases. His numbers dropped a bit last year, but they couldn't prepare me for what he's done this season when I decided to trade him: .178 BA, .233 OBP, .314 SLG, 4 HR, and 8 SB. The Diamondbacks had just called up Gerrardo Parra, who seemed like a threat to his playing time, and though I still believed in Young's speed and power, I wasn't certain that he could get enough playing time if he couldn't hit the ball. Since Micah had said that Jimenez was available, I checked to see if he'd have any interest in Young.

Despite the fact that Jimenez had started off the season with a couple disastrous outings, I'd been intrigued by the numbers that the young pitcher had put up since then. Jimenez puts up solid strikeout totals, and he's cut down on his walk rate from last season. He consistently pitches pitches into the seventh inning, and he induces more groundballs than flyballs, which is a benefit when you pitch half your games at Coors Field. My team needs pitching help, and I felt that Jimenez was the type of underrated pitcher that could be had cheaply.

Micah was willing to trade Jimenez for Young by themselves, but he wanted to find out if I would be willing to include Meche for Fukudome. Meche has had some decent years for the Royals, enough to make him an underrated pitching asset, but he had put up some mediocre numbers in the first two months of the season, and I was worried that his chronic back problems would keep him from ever pitching to his potential. Fukudome had struggled as the season went on last year, but I was hoping that he could turn that trend around this year now that he was familiar with the major league season. My offense needed a consistent 4th or 5th outfielder, and I felt that Fukudome could fill that role if he could avoid tiring as the season progressed.

The day the deal went through, Meche pitched a 7 inning, 11 strikeout gem for his first win in a month. Those stats went to me, but he followed that up with a complete game shutout against the Diamondbacks. Micah may have gotten Meche at just the right time if he can pitch to the potential that he has shown in recent years. Young has also shown a bit more at the plate since the trade, hitting 2 HR and 3 doubles to go along with 2 SB in six games. Fukudome hasn't shown me anything since I've received him and he's 0 for his last 20. Jimenez had his own complete game win in his last start, but the fact that he threw 127 pitches and 4 walks doesn't give me a lot of hope in his next start.

How will this trade be remembered? Hard to say. Early dividends give the trade to Micah, but sometimes trades are not about screwing another team over. Instead, they can be a tool to get players that you believe will help your team. None of these players may be on our rosters next year, but it's all about improving your team's weaknesses.

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Trade Review - Jose Guillen for Jered Weaver

We have our third trade of the season, as Naterade and Orc Mischief deal from their strengths to shore up their weaknesses.  Besides myself, Naterade and Orc Mischief are the only other teams to have completed a trade so far this year, with two trades apiece.  Let's look at the trade's principals.

Naterade has struggled in the HR category this year and adding Jose Guillen will help to strengthen a young and inconsistent outfield.  Naterade doesn't have many sluggers on his team and Guillen will give him a veteran outfielder with 25 HR and 100 RBI upside.  Guillen is a career .273 hitter, so he could hurt Nate's BA, but Guillen did hit .290 in 2007.  Guillen missed a couple of weeks earlier this season, but he has been hot since coming off the DL, hitting .343 with 3 HR and 11 RBI in 10 games.

Orc Mischief has had very poor pitching so far this season, and he's only won two pitching categories other than Saves this year.  Besides Johan Santana and Jon Lester, and Lester hasn't pitched that well yet, Orc Mischief has a lot of soft-tossing pitchers with little major league success.  I'm not a big fan of Jered Weaver, but he should give you double-digit Wins with an okay WHIP and ERA.  He should be a top-40 pitcher, and he will become the Orc's 3rd or 4th best pitcher.  Weaver has started out very hot this year, and he could be a fantasy surprise if he can return his strikeout rate to last year's levels.  

Not every trade has to be a blockbuster deal, and I like how both teams evaluated their own strengths and weaknesses and then dealt accordingly.  Neither team will miss the players they gave up too dearly, and they both will enjoy the services of the players they received.

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Let's Take Stock of the Surroundings

As it is now the third week of the season, I see no reason why I shouldn't be able to make wild speculations and assumptions based upon the events of the previous two weeks in my Yahoo H2H keeper league.

- After two matchups, The $5 Footlongs have taken a close lead over the Screaming Lemurs, Dissect Yourself, and Naterade.  The Footlongs have gone undefeated in every offensive category except for steals, though they have had middling results in the pitching categories.  Their victories over the Lemurs and the Macafeys have been very close, so it might not be time yet to chisel their name on the season trophy.  They've had incredible starts from Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley and Adam Jones; of the three I feel most confident in Cabrera's and Utley's abilities to maintain a high level of play, but Jones will eventually struggle at some point.  This is a good team (good enough that I put them on top of last week's power rankings), but they could easily be fourth or fifth.

- The Lemurs had a solid 10-0 victory over Summer Fox, but the matchup wasn't as lopsided as it looked.  The Fox came close to beating the Lemurs in Runs and RBI, but having Brandon Phillips and Garrett Atkins combine for 2 Runs and RBI surely didn't help his cause.  Incidentally, with Matsuzaka now on the DL, it seems that Rogstad needs to cut ties with Joey Devine in order to free up a DL spot and add a pitcher that will actually pitch this year.  Devine had surgery on his arm and will be out for the season.

- As far as the teams at the bottom of the standings, I think the Macafeys are most likely to make the playoffs.  They have too much talent to be stuck in the consolation bracket all year.  Order of the Phoenix will need to pitch better if they want to make the playoffs; none of their starters have an ERA under 5.00 to begin the year.  Orc Mischief has had a couple of tough matchups to begin the year, and I don't see them staying in the basement forever, though I don't know if they have the offense to make the playoffs.

- Let's give the Butt Admirals the "Hard Luck Award" for the first two weeks; they have tied in more categories than anyone, including tying in stolen bases each week, despite the fact that they are second in steals overall.  The Admirals would be in 7th if Emilio Bonifacio hadn't started the season so hot, or if Dustin Pedroia had stolen a base last week.

- The Tossers have stolen 6 bases so far this season, last in the league and half the amount that the Admirals and Orc Mischief put up in the first week.  It's possible that they could be the slowest team in the league, but they nearly tied Order of the Phoenix last week.

- Players that are hitting poorly this month that will hit better: Alexei Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Jay Bruce, and Chris Davis.

- Players that are hitting well that will drop off: Nick Swisher, Orlando Hudson, Mike Cameron, and Brandon Inge.

- Free Agents that I'm watching: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, Pedro Feliz, Nick Johnson, Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Davies, David Purcey, Tim Wakefield, Justin Masterson, Anibal Sanchez, and Octavio Dotel.

- Since this is a keeper league, I just wanted to briefly touch on some on some of the rookies performances so far this season.  Since most starters have only made two starts, we'll just look at the hitters.  Cameron Maybin hit his first HR today, but he's still hitting around the Mendoza line.  Colby Rasmus has more walks than strikeouts, which suggests good strike zone judgement on his part, but where's the power?  He only has one extra-base hit so far this year.  Travis Snider is hitting great, but the batting average will probably come down a bit.  The power is legit though, and 25 HR is realistic.  Elvis Andrus is also hitting well, and the stolen bases should come as long as he keeps getting on base.  Dexter Fowler is showing a solid combination of pop and speed.  Jordan Schafer is struggling and striking out way too much; where's his speed?  Based only on these past two weeks, Travis Snider should be the AL Rookie of the Year by a landslide.

- Some prospects that I'm waiting on for this year that no one has on their roster: Matt Gamel, Gordon Beckham, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Carrasco, and Tommy Hanson.    

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Trade Spin

Two trades so far this season and I have been involved in both of them.

After I named a players from each team that I wanted in my power rankings, Naterade responded by offering me Justin Morneau and Robinson Cano for Mark Teixiera and Emmanuel Burriss.  Nate has tried every year to pry Teixiera from me, and this was the deal that finally did it.  I really needed to upgrade at second base, so I was happy to receive Cano.  I felt that the upgrade that Cano represented over Burriss balanced out the downgrade from Teixiera to Morneau.  I think Morneau is a top-five first baseman, and though he doesn't have the power potential of Teixiera, Morneau is not that far off in the other offensive categories.  Cano balances out the slight offensive drop off by giving me one of the top 6 or 7 second baseman in the league.  I think Cano will bounce back from last season's mediocre batting average to hit over .300 again with 15+ HR.  He's a big upgrade for my team over Burriss, who I had picked up for his stolen base potential but had instead been killing my team's BA.

I'm not surprised that Naterade targeted Burriss; he had complimented my pickup of Burriss at the start of the season and Natarade could use the steals.  He gets a star in Teixiera, who was one of the longest tenured players on my team.  I first drafted Teixiera in 2006 and I've dealt with his slow starts every year.  He will pick things up, but it's hard to deal with slow starts from your star players in a H2H league.  Teixiera is a better keeper than Morneau, but I think having Cano will help me more this year.

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Power Rankings

It's time for the first power rankings of the year.  For those who don't know, this is a ranking of the 12 teams in my head-to-head keeper league.  As always, these are 90% subjective and they are a measure of how I think each team will do from this point on.  I reserve the right to change my opinion about each and every one of these team's throughout the year.  As an added bonus, I have designated one player from each team that I would like to have on my own team in a transparent attempt to ignite some trade talks.  These power rankings will appear intermittently throughout the season because they are time-consuming, though I will be more inclined to do them if you guys ask nicely.  Feel free to debate these rankings in the comments section.  Onto the rankings.

1. The $5 Footlongs

With Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, and Carlos Beltran, this offense can officially be considered stacked.  Most teams will not outslug them, and they might find it hard to outrun them since they also have Jacoby Ellsbury, Rafael Furcal, Bobby Abreu, and Adam Jones.  This outfield is a little light on power, so any home run droughts in the infield will be a blow to this team.  This team has great pitching, and though Tim Lincecum and Kevin Slowey have struggled so far, both pitchers should be fine.  This team has a solid bullpen, especially if Trevor Hoffman can stay healthy.  The only thing I can nitpick about this team is after their top four pitchers, they are relying on guys like Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, Anthony Reyes, and Rick Porcello.  These pitchers all have value, but it’s not a good sign to see them all in one place.  

Guy who I’d want on my team: Kevin Slowey.  I think he’s going to be a top-15 pitcher this year. 

 

2. Screaming Lemurs

The Lemurs have a good mix of speed and power; this is a very balanced lineup.  Victor Martinez has started hot out of the gate this season, probably trying to erase any memory of his awful 2008 season.  Travis Snider has also started well, and he could have a solid rookie year.  The Lemurs need Alex Gordon to step things up this year to make this lineup one of the best in the league.  I’m a big fan of this team’s pitching, even with Brandon Webb on the DL.  John Danks, Javier Vasquez, Matt Garza, and Johnny Cueto should all have good seasons.  Saves will be scarce on this team, but the Lemurs have already taken advantage of Trevor Hoffman’s injury by picking up Carlos Villaneuva, who should get a few save opportunities before Hoffman comes back.  The Lemurs went 4-6 last week, but that was a very close matchup that could have easily been 6-4 in their favor.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Johnny Cueto.  He’s going to bounce back this year.

 

3. Naterade

This is a team that is better than the 5-4-1 record they put up last week against a very strong Macafeys team.  Naterade has a solid offense with a few young stars and a great pitching staff anchored by young aces such as Chad Billingsley, Felix Hernandez, and Josh Beckett.  This team should have a lot of high strikeout totals each week.  Naterade will more than hold his own in the pitching categories each week, but they may have trouble beating some of the more powerful offenses in our league.  Other than Justin Morneau and Evan Longoria, this team is a little light on power.  They will need guys like Justin Upton to improve this year if they want to go deep into the playoffs this year.  

Guy who I’d want on my team: Robinson Cano.  I think he’s going to have a strong season this year. 

 

4. Dissect Yourself

I think this offense is better than people realize.  Micah has lots of power and a good amount of speed on this team.  This team could be poised for a deep playoff run if Chris Davis and Ryan Doumit can hit like they did last year, and if Troy Tulowitzki can return to his 2007 form.  Micahel Bourn will steal a lot of bases if he can keep hitting the way he is now.  The bullpen is very solid, and Micah should come close to winning the Saves category every week.  The pitching is decent, but I’m not a fan of Carlos Zambrano, even with his good start.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Ubaldo Jimenez.  Despite pitching in Coors, I think Jimenez will be a good pitcher.

 

5. Macafeys

Last year’s champions have a strong team again this year, but I feel that it’s a bit weaker offensively than the 2008 team.  They have fantasy studs like David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, BJ Upton, and Geovany Soto, but they also have some weak spots, specifically at the middle infield positions.  The Macafeys have reloaded with young up-and-comers such as Adam Lind and Matt Wieters; Wieters will especially be valuable to the Macafeys as either Wieters or Soto will become a trade chip once Wieters is promoted.  Mike Jacobs has started slow, but I really like the power that he offers and he’s a solid CI or UT.  I’m not a Milton Bradley fan, mainly because he can’t stay healthy.  I think Nelson Cruz will be good this year, but I’m not buying into the hype that he generated with last year’s performance.  The pitching staff is very good; having Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Erik Bedard, Adam Wainwright, and Yovani Gallardo will result in some great pitching totals every week.  Closers are scarce on this team, though Jose Arredondo and Scott Downs could find a few saves this year.  Downs could supplant BJ Ryan as the Blue Jays closer if Ryan is injured or inefficient, greatly increasing Downs’ value.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Erik Bedard.  I’m buying into Bedard’s comeback year.   

 

6. The Balls

The Balls are also strong offensively, though there are some question marks on their team; Shin-Soo Choo and Xavier Nady have started out well, but can they continue to hit well throughout the season, or will find themselves losing at bats if they struggle?  Also, will Jarrod Saltalamacchia bust out of his slump and overtake Elvis Andrus as the jewel of the Mark Teixiera trade, or will he be a black hole at catcher for the Balls this year?  This team will run and hit, but batting average might be a problem for them.  The pitching staff should be pretty good, with Jake Peavy, Ricky Nolasco, and Derek Lowe running out there every five days.  I’m also a fan of Jair Jurrjens for this season, more so than I am of Gavin Floyd who, last season’s 17 Wins notwithstanding, I feel is overrated.  This team is good enough to win 6-4 every week, but I think they will struggle in the Saves, BA, and Wins categories.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Jair Jurrjens.  He’s going to surprise some people.

 

7. Order of the Phoenix

There’s some good power on this team stored in the bats of Lance Berkman, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, and Ryan Ludwick, but this team should find steals hard to come by with Jose Reyes their only proven base stealer.  Even if Reyes has a monster year and steals 3 bags a week, this team will struggle in the SB category against most teams in the league.  There’s talent on the mound for the Phoenix, but there’s not a lot of depth behind Scott Kazmir and Francisco Liriano.  The bullpen is very good, so the Phoenix should be competitive in Saves, WHIP, and ERA, but K’s and Wins might be hard to come by for this staff.  It looks like Mark plans to address this problem by rotating out as many pitchers as the league allows each week, which should help him if he can pick solid matchups each time.  

Guy who I’d want on my team: It’s a tossup between Pablo Sandoval and Manny Parra.  Both players have started slow, but I think they’re going to have great years.

 

8. Adrian’s Revenge

My team has been hurt by injuries.  Already I’ve had to deal with Ervin Santana, Scott Baker, and Melvin Mora making trips to the DL (Joe Mauer and Kelvim Escobar are also on the DL but they were like that when I got them).  Only the young guys on my team want to hit; Mark Teixiera, Magglio Ordonez, and Carlos Guillen have given early performances ranging from awful to so-so.  Still, I like my team’s chances to make the playoffs if they can turn things around.  I really like my pitching staff, especially with the way Zack Greinke and Gil Meche have been pitching.  It would be nice if Joel Hanrahan would get a save, but I guess the Nationals would have to win a game for that to happen. 

 

9. Summer Fox

The Fox has the best record after the first week, but their team resembles a MASH unit more than a baseball team.  6 Fox players are on the DL, though Ichiro just came off recently, and it’s not looking like Hiroki Kuroda will return next week when eligible.  This team has a good offense with some young stars to build around.  Their hitting will need to carry the team until the pitching can get healthy.  Right now they are depending on Kyle Lohse, Ryan Dempster, and Jamie Moyer to anchor their staff.  There’s not much in the way of relief on this team, and it might be time to drop Joey Devine for another pitcher since he won’t be back any time soon.  This team can be competitive in the future if managed right, but they will need to get some pitching help if they want to be competitive this year.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Stephen Drew.  I think he’s going to be a solid SS for the next five years or so.

10. Butt Admirals

This could be again one of the faster teams in the league.  They don’t have any true burners, except for possibly Chone Figgins, but they do have quite a few guys that can steal 20-30 bases.  Elvis Andrus is a guy who will probably struggle at the plate, but he had 93 steals over the last two years in the minors, so I think it’s safe to say that he’ll have value this year.  Their pitching staff isn’t as solid as the offense, especially with the injury to Chris Carpenter, who was doing so well prior to getting hurt.  Dan Haren is a stud, Rich Harden is only as good as he’s healthy, and Edinson Volquez has talent, though he probably won’t be as good as he was last year.  Beyond those three, there isn’t much else.  The Admirals should be fine most weeks because they have a solid bullpen to help out in WHIP and ERA, though I’d probably think about dropping Takashi Saito for a reliever or starter with less health issues, preferably one that strikes out a lot of batters.  This team is well-suited to compete over the next couple of years if their young players like Chase Headley and Andrus can mature into All-Stars.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Joey Votto.  I think this guy’s going to be a star for years to come.

 

11. Orc Mischief

This is a boring team.  It’s boring, and I mean that as a compliment.  None of the players on this team are really sexy breakout picks, except for Alexei Ramirez probably, but they get the job done.  Players like Mark Reynolds, Mike Cameron, and Brad Hawpe don’t seem that great during the season because they can be streaky, but their stats at the end of the year are solid.  This team will have a lot of power, but I think their batting average will be suspect most weeks.  The Orcs will need to use that power to bash their opponents into submission each week, because there’s not much going on in the bullpen.  Johan Santana has started the season with his typically amazing results and Jon Lester is a solid young ace, but Chien-Ming Wang has been awful and Joe Saunders is overrated.  This team will have to hope their relievers give them solid ERA and WHIP each week.  I think this team could surprise some people if they get in the playoffs, but I don’t think the Orcs are built to win beyond this year.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Brad Hawpe.  Solid slugger.

 

12. The Tossers

What I like about this offense: Travis Hafner looks to be making a bit of a comeback, Corey Hart is a solid 20/20 player, Chris Iannetta could be a top-5 catcher, and Alex Rodriguez might be his old self by May.  What I don’t like: There are a lot of older guys here, which is not a good sign for a team that didn’t have a lot of success last year.  I do like the power and speed that Torii Hunter and Jayson Werth bring, but this team does not have a lot of stars.  The pitching staff is looking better than the offense, especially because bullpen offers three solid closers.  Aaron Harang also looks like he’s ready to bounce back from last year, and Ted Lilly is always good for strikeouts and a decent WHIP and ERA.  This team will need Cliff Lee to pitch better because the pitching staff will be critical to this team’s season record.  

Guy I’d want on my team: Ted Lilly.

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Tip of the Cap

I want to offer a tip of the cap, to steal Stephen Colbert's oft-used and possibly trademarked phrase, to my opponent this week the Balls for their prodigious offensive output today.  They hit .386 with 10 Runs, 6 HR, and 15 RBI, giving them a large lead over my pitiful .194/7/1/2 day.

Big hitters for the Balls were Carlos Quentin with 2 HR and 4 RBI, and Aubrey Huff with 4 hits and 3 RBI.  The Balls' offense is off to a solid start this season, and I commend them on their strong performance today.

Though my offense fared poorly today, I'd be remiss if I didn't comment on the solid pitching performance I received from Zack Greinke in his match against the Indians.  Greinke struck out 9 in just 5 innings, and though his WHIP suffered from 6 hits and 2 walks, Greinke recieved the W.  Greinke has put up some great numbers in his first two starts, striking out 16 while keeping the opposition scoreless through 11 innings, and I'm excited to see what he'll do as the year progresses.  

Since we are giving out tips of the cap, I'd like to acknowledge the strong pitching performances that the Macafeys and Naterade put up against each other last week.  The Macafeys barely overcame Naterade in 3 out of the 5 categories while tying in Saves.  The Macafeys received strong performances from Erik Bedard, Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson, while Naterade countered with Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez.  Both teams look like they will have formidable rotations this year.

I hope to have a short power rankings up by Friday, and maybe a small look back at the first two weeks of the season early next week.  

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Notes From Around My League

Wow, was it a bad first day for my offense.  

Our final line: 7/40 - 6 Runs - 1 HR - 3 RBI - 0 SB

My best player today was Matt Kemp, who went 1/3 with a solo home run.  Magglio Ordonez was my only player to have multiple hits.  

The worst offenders on my team today: Mark Teixiera 0/4, Mark DeRosa 0/3, and Jhonny Peralta 0/3.

On the pitching side for me, Paul Maholm turned in a solid start against the Cardinals with a 1.35 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 6.2 innings, and Kevin Gregg converted his first save of the season despite a shaky ninth.

Dissect Yourself, my opponent this week, started the day almost as poorly as I did, but he was able to rebound with good performances from Brian Roberts, Alfonso Soriano, and Michael Bourn.  We are now tied in HR, RBI, and Steals.

Around My League

As we'll see, almost every team in our league has suffered from a slow start to the season.

 - The Balls were nearly as bad as I was today, hitting .194; the lone bright spot was Hanley Ramirez's 2/1/5 line.  The Balls were able to put up strong strikeout totals because of Jake Peavy and Ricky Nolasco's efforts, though neither pitcher was especially sharp.  

- Cliff Lee was destroyed by Rangers' hitting, marring an otherwise strong pitching day for the Tossers.  Lee's outing has put the Tossers in early hole in the ERA and WHIP categories.

- Order of the Phoenix has to be happy that Hank Blalock is starting the season healthy; Blalock and Ryan Ludwick combined for 2 HR and 5 RBI to pull the Phoenix into an early lead over Summer Fox in every offenensive category.  It's a good thing that this team is doing well offensively as their pitching line stands at a 12.46 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in 13 innings (not counting any stats that Brian Fuentes might provide later tonight) due to awful outings by Aaron Cook and Justin Verlander.

- Summer Fox was without Jason Bay's and Kevin Youkilis's bats today because their game was postponed due to poor weather.  This set the tone for the Fox's team as five other players from their team also watched Opening Day from the bench.

- How about the 2 HR from Felipe Lopez against the Rockies, where did those come from?  The Macafeys have to love that performance almost as much as the 4 hit, 6 RBI day that Adam Lind produced.  We can't expect much power from Lopez the rest of the year, but Lind is a forgotten prospect who could be finally figuring out major league pitching.  

- Probably the best pitching performance of the night was Felix Hernandez's 8 inning gem with 6 K's and 1 ER.  Hernandez's stellar outing was marred by 3 walks, but he keeps Naterade ahead of the Macafeys in ERA and WHIP.

- Emilio Bonifacio has made Orc Mischief look like a genius for picking him up, putting up probably the best hitting line of the night - 4 hits, 4 Runs, 1 HR, 2 RBI, and 3 SB.  Steals were tough to come by in our league today, and Bonifacio has given the Butt Admirals an early challenge in the steals category.  

-  Though the Admirals did not steal any bases today, they could have one of the fastest lineups in the league and they may still have a chance to overtake the Mischief in that category.

Best Team Hitting Performance

Screaming Lemurs - .412/6 Runs/4 HR/12 RBI/1 SB

Best Team Pitching Performance

Orc Mischief - 12.1 Innings/1 Win/0 Saves/9 K/0.73 ERA/0.97 WHIP (Joe Saunders is in line for the win with the Angels game in the 8th inning at the time of this writing.

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First Trade of the Year

I was happy to be a part of the first trade of the year in our league as I and Orc Mischief swapped players.   Orc Mischief looks to have improved their chances of success this year and I have added some risk in the hopes that I will have greater success in the near future.  I tend to make at least one bad trade each year (Adam Dunn for Morgan Ensberg in 2006, Brian Roberts for Kelly Johnson in 2008) and hopefully this trade won't bite me in the ass this  year.

Here's the trade: I get Matt Kemp and Joe Mauer and Orc Mischief gets Brian McCann and Carlos Lee.  

Orc Mischief has greatly improved their team by moving an injured catcher for a better one and adding one of the best and most consistent sluggers in the game.  Both are solid keepers for next year.  I gave up a lot, but I did get younger by adding Kemp, whose steals should make up for Lee's power, and my hope is that he will be a solid star for years to come.  Lee is a great player but he probably can play at an elite level for only a couple more years.  Getting Kemp greatly improves my keepers for next year, though I may have hurt by team's ability to be competitive in 2009.  How I do will depend on how many games Joe Mauer misses this year.  If Mauer only misses a month, I could still be in the hunt for the playoffs, because when he's a great hitter when healthy.  I think McCann is a better fantasy player, but Mauer is not far behind.  I think both teams got a fair deal from this trade.

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Here's my ESPN team

Just for kicks, here's another team I've drafted over at ESPN.  It's a league setup by some commenters over at razzball.com.  The league I'm in is just one of many for that website, and the best team out of all the leagues gets $50 worth of Taco Bell coupons, so wish me luck.  It's a 12-team league and I had the 2nd pick.  Let me know what you think.

C         Ramon Hernandez, Cin         

1B       Albert Pujols, StL

2B       Brandon Phillips, Cin

3B       Adrian Beltre, Sea

SS        Derek Jeter, NYY

2B/SS  Ryan Theriot,

1B/3B  Ian Stewart, Col

OF       Matt Kemp, LAD

OF       Nate McLouth, Pit

OF       Curtis Granderson, Det

OF       Justin Upton, Ari

OF       Adam Jones, Bal

UTIL   Mike Jacobs, KC

Bench  Joe Mauer, Min

Bench  Wladimir Balentien, Sea

Bench  Jason Giambi, Oak

P          Roy Oswalt, Hou

P          John Lackey, LAA

P          Brad Lidge, Phi

P          Kevin Slowey, Min

P          Matt Capps, Pit

P          Gil Meche, KC

P          Chris Volstad, Fla

P          Mark Lowe, Sea

P          Andy Sonnanstine, TB 

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Here Are 6 Pitchers That Could Have Some Value If They Make The Rotation

None of these pitchers were drafted in our league, but I'm going to be watching how their first few weeks go if they make their teams' rotations.  These are merely speculative picks and deep sleepers that could give fantasy teams some value during the year.  

1. Clay Buchholz (BOS)

2. J.A. Happ (PHI)

3. Scott Lewis (CLE)

4. Yusmeiro Petit (ARI)

5. Garrett Mock (WAS)

6. Clayton Richard (CWS)

As a bonus, here is one pitcher that has secured a rotation spot and could provide some value, but wasn't drafted in our league.  Keep him in the back of your mind.

David Purcey (TOR)

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Draft Analysis - Part 3

Allow me to present our third and final installment of my analysis of our league’s recent draft.  With just six rounds left, I will be dispensing with the best and worst picks for each round, because at this point in the draft most teams are filling out their roster positions and you really can’t go very wrong no matter who you pick once we get into the end rounds.  You can easily figure out which players I like or don’t like from commentary.

Round Thirteen

1. Chris Dickerson      Dissect Yourself

2. Mike Cameron        Orc Mischief

3. Manny Parra            Order of the Phoenix

4. John Maine              Butt Admirals

5. John Smoltz            Summer Fox

6. Coco Crisp              Tossers

7. Elijah Dukes            Screaming Lemurs

8. Jorge Posada           The $5 Footlongs

9. Troy Percival           Naterade

10. Jair Jurrjens           The Balls

11. Andy Sonnanstine Adrian's Revenge

12. Mike Jacobs          Macafey

Comments:  This was a tough round for me.  I had been planning on getting either Parra or Jurrjens this round, and then get Mike Jacobs with my next pick, but it all went wrong.  Brubaker took Jurrjens and I got pissed off and took Sonnanstine, not realizing that Tim would take Jacobs.  I ended up taking Carlos Guillen with my next pick.  I was not happy with that turn of events.  I’m not sure about Chris Dickerson; I haven’t really read anything that makes me think he’ll be a .300/20/20 guy this year.  Maybe he’ll be good, but he might not be better than Mike Cameron, who has been an underrated 20/20 player for most of the past five years.  He missed the first month of the season due to a suspension, but he still hit 25 HR and stole 17 bases.  I think he’ll come close to 20/20 again this year, though his batting average does leave something to be desired.  I also like Elijah Dukes in this round as a possible 20/20 candidate; he should get it if he can stay healthy on the field and out of trouble off it.  I don’t like Jorge Posada for this year, not when other catching options are available such as Kelly Shoppach (21 HR in 352 AB last year), Ramon Hernandez (15 HR last year) or AJ Pierzynski (13 HR, .281 BA).  I’m surprised no one took a chance on one of the Rangers’ catching prospects.  I’m beginning to think that Rogstad has a thing for pitchers over 40.

Round Fourteen

1. Adam Lind             Macafey

2. Carlos Guillen         Adrian's Revenge

3. Kaz Matsui              The Balls

4. Troy Glaus             Naterade

5. Hideki Matsui         The $5 Footlongs

6. Travis Snider           Screaming Lemurs

7. Jesse Litsch             Tossers

8. Jack Cust                 Summer Fox

9. Jeremy Hermida      Butt Admirals

10. Hank Blalock        Order of the Phoenix

11. Joe Saunders         Orc Mischief

12. Jason Motte           Dissect Yourself

Comments: I would have been happy to take Lind to fill my UT spot, but Tim took him and now I’m stuck with Carlos Guillen.  At least he should hit for average and provide Runs and RBI.  I’ve been reading a lot about how Lind is going to be better than Snider this year, and I think I agree.  Lind was once a hyped hitting prospect a couple of seasons ago, and though he didn’t pan out right away, he’s now had some seasoning at the major league level and could be ready to take the next step forward.  Snider is young, and he could just as easily struggle as Lind once did.  There were quite a few players taken this round that could put up interesting numbers if they can get 450-500 at bats this season.  I think Blalock does it, but not Glaus or Matsui.  Saunders and Litsch seem like pretty interchangeable pitchers; neither misses many bats and they’re both usually done by the seventh inning.  I like Litsch better since he didn’t issue as many free passes last year as Saunders did, and Saunders was recently experiencing tightness in his shoulder.  Most pitchers in these rounds are replaceable. 

Round Fifteen

1. Dan Wheeler           Dissect Yourself

2. Brandon Lyon         Orc Mischief

3. Alexi Casilla            Order of the Phoenix

4. Clint Barmes           Butt Admirals

5. Colby Rasmus         Summer Fox

6. JJ Putz                     Tossers

7. Edgar Renteria        Screaming Lemurs

8. Oliver Perez            The $5 Footlongs

9. Eric Byrnes             Naterade

10. Justin Duchscherer The Balls

11. Kevin Gregg         Adrian's Revenge

12. Manuel Corpas      Macafey

Comments: Gregg is still in contention with Marmol for the Cubs’ closer role, and he could win the role based on his previous closing experience and the fact that Marmol is a much more versatile reliever.  This could be a great pick for me if he wins the role and gets 30 saves.  Brandon Lyon is another reliever looking to win the closer role, and ESPN has him at the top of the Tigers’ closer depth chart.  I think he’ll be the closer for the Tigers and this will be a good pick for Clint.  Wheeler should give Micah a few save opportunities when Percival misses games, which he will.  Brubaker took Duchscherer in the right round; this is a risky pick because of the threat of injury to Duchscherer, but he’s talented and could provide solid value here.  Tim could get some saves from Corpas, but everything I’ve read seems to indicate that the Rockies will have Huston Street close in order to maximize his trade value.  I think Corpas will get some saves this year.  Byrnes was great two years ago, but he missed most of last year with injury and he has yet to play in spring training.  He could provide some steals if he gets playing time but he’ll be fighting with Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy for playing time in the outfield.  Naterade has already dropped him for Randy Winn, which I think is a good move.  Rogstad was able to draft Rasmus again, and hopefully he’ll be able to play him sometime this year.

Round Sixteen

1. Felipe Lopez           Macafey

2. Jeremy Guthrie        Adrian's Revenge

3. Kevin Kouzmanoff The Balls

4. Brandon Wood       Naterade

5. Mike Pelfrey           The $5 Footlongs

6. Kenshin Kawakami Screaming Lemurs

7. Jason Giambi           Tossers

8. Hideki Okajima       Summer Fox

9. Ryan Garko             Butt Admirals

10. Ben Sheets            Order of the Phoenix

11. Denard Span         Orc Mischief

12. Ubaldo Jimenez    Dissect Yourself

Comments: I’m a fan of Kouzmanoff for this round; he’ll give you 20 HR and a serviceable batting average.  He’s a good guy to fill in your UT spot.  Same with Jason Giambi, who I think will be good for 25 HR.  I would rather have Jimenez over Sheets, especially since Sheets will make 15 starts at the most this season.  Sheets will lose value if he signs with a team like Texas, which seems likely since that’s where he’s been rehabbing.  Jimenez was wild last year, but he strikes out a lot of guys and he could improve in his second full year in the league.  Will Kawakami be more like Hiroki Kuroda or Kaz Ishii?  This is a good upside pick.  It’s good to take risks on pitchers in these rounds since they can be replaced fairly easily.  Brandon Wood could be a good pick, and if he gets enough at bats I think 20 HR is easily possible, though his batting average will hurt you.  Span is a good speculative pick for his ability to steal bases, but how many steals he gets will depend on how playing time shakes out in that crowded outfield. 

Round Seventeen

1. Gaby Sanchez         Dissect Yourself

2. Juan Rivera             Orc Mischief

3. Brad Penny            Order of the Phoenix

4. Noah Lowry            Butt Admirals

5. Casey Blake            Summer Fox

6. Freddy Sanchez      Tossers

7. Jonathan Sanchez    Screaming Lemurs

8. David DeJesus        The $5 Footlongs

9. Rafael Soriano        Naterade

10. Phil Hughes           The Balls

11. Paul Maholm         Adrian's Revenge

12. Matt Gamel           Macafey

Comments: Gaby Sanchez appears to be the favorite to win the Marlins’ first base job, and I’m interested to see what he’ll do based on the numbers he had in Double A last year.  David DeJesus can be boring, but he won’t hurt you anywhere.  Matt Gamel has had a very good minor league career, but his defense might keep him from being a regular at third.  He hasn’t played yet in spring training, but his bat is one to stash away because at some point the Brewers will tire of Bill Hall and Mike Lamb.  I don’t think Phil Hughes starts for the Yankees this year unless someone gets injured, and Brubaker has already dropped him.  I think Jonathan Sanchez is a good pick, because of his elite strikeout ability when healthy.  Freddy Sanchez hit .344 two years ago, but he’s been in decline since then.  He doesn’t steal bases or hit for much power, but he’s a decent player to stash on your bench in case he gets hot.  Brad Penny has yet to pitch in spring training due to shoulder issues, and I don’t think he’ll be much more than a matchups guy this year.  Juan Rivera has been overlooked in recent years due to injury, but he can hit when healthy and it’s assumed that the Angels will give him at bats because of the three-year contract they signed him to. 

Round Eighteen

1. Nick Swisher           Macafey

2. Josh Fields              Adrian's Revenge

3. Dioner Navarro       The Balls

4. Jerry Owens            Naterade

5. Kosuke Fukudome  The $5 Footlongs

6. Grant Balfour          Screaming Lemurs

7. Cody Ross              Tossers

8. David Murphy        Summer Fox

9. Takashi Saito           Butt Admirals

10. Josh Anderson      Order of the Phoenix

11. Andruw Jones       Orc Mischief

12. Wandy Rodriguez Dissect Yourself

Comments: It’s the last round, and owners are filling out bench spots by speculating on steals, playing time, power and upside.  Most of these players will not finish the year on the same team, and in fact a few have already been dropped.  Navarro is a serviceable catcher, but Brubaker dropped him for Kelly Shoppach, a move with which I agree.  I needed more power on my team, and I was happy to get Josh Fields since he should get most of the playing time at third base for the White Sox, and he has the upside to hit 25 HR.  Andruw Jones could pull a Sammy Sosa for the Rangers, but I don’t think he’ll be anything more than a part-time player for them.  Josh Anderson looks like the front-runner for the Braves centerfield spot, and he could be a good source for steals and batting average.  Same with Jerry Owens if he can get playing time.  Cody Ross has decent power and could hit 20 HR this year.  Not a bad player to have on your bench.  How much value David Murphy has this year will depend on how much playing time he gets, but he’s a good speculative bench fodder pick.  I think Wandy Rodriguez will have a lot of value because of his strikeout ability, especially as a matchups guy.

Well, there you have it, my analysis of our 2009 league draft.  Thanks for the comments and I hope to be back next week with some more comments and speculation.

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