Trade Review - Chris B. Young/Gil Meche for Ubaldo Jimenez/Kosuke Fukudome

We have our fourth trade of the season, the third one that I've been involved in and the first for Dissect Yourself. Dissect Yourself had made it clear that Ubaldo Jimenez was available and I had been looking to move Chris B. Young, so we worked out a deal on June 8th that had my team, Adrian's Revenge send Chris B. Young and Gil Meche for Ubaldo Jimenez and Kosuke Fukudome.

I've had Chris B. Young in our keeper league ever since his rookie year in 2007 when he hit 32 HR and stole 27 bases. His numbers dropped a bit last year, but they couldn't prepare me for what he's done this season when I decided to trade him: .178 BA, .233 OBP, .314 SLG, 4 HR, and 8 SB. The Diamondbacks had just called up Gerrardo Parra, who seemed like a threat to his playing time, and though I still believed in Young's speed and power, I wasn't certain that he could get enough playing time if he couldn't hit the ball. Since Micah had said that Jimenez was available, I checked to see if he'd have any interest in Young.

Despite the fact that Jimenez had started off the season with a couple disastrous outings, I'd been intrigued by the numbers that the young pitcher had put up since then. Jimenez puts up solid strikeout totals, and he's cut down on his walk rate from last season. He consistently pitches pitches into the seventh inning, and he induces more groundballs than flyballs, which is a benefit when you pitch half your games at Coors Field. My team needs pitching help, and I felt that Jimenez was the type of underrated pitcher that could be had cheaply.

Micah was willing to trade Jimenez for Young by themselves, but he wanted to find out if I would be willing to include Meche for Fukudome. Meche has had some decent years for the Royals, enough to make him an underrated pitching asset, but he had put up some mediocre numbers in the first two months of the season, and I was worried that his chronic back problems would keep him from ever pitching to his potential. Fukudome had struggled as the season went on last year, but I was hoping that he could turn that trend around this year now that he was familiar with the major league season. My offense needed a consistent 4th or 5th outfielder, and I felt that Fukudome could fill that role if he could avoid tiring as the season progressed.

The day the deal went through, Meche pitched a 7 inning, 11 strikeout gem for his first win in a month. Those stats went to me, but he followed that up with a complete game shutout against the Diamondbacks. Micah may have gotten Meche at just the right time if he can pitch to the potential that he has shown in recent years. Young has also shown a bit more at the plate since the trade, hitting 2 HR and 3 doubles to go along with 2 SB in six games. Fukudome hasn't shown me anything since I've received him and he's 0 for his last 20. Jimenez had his own complete game win in his last start, but the fact that he threw 127 pitches and 4 walks doesn't give me a lot of hope in his next start.

How will this trade be remembered? Hard to say. Early dividends give the trade to Micah, but sometimes trades are not about screwing another team over. Instead, they can be a tool to get players that you believe will help your team. None of these players may be on our rosters next year, but it's all about improving your team's weaknesses.

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Let's Take Stock of the Surroundings

As it is now the third week of the season, I see no reason why I shouldn't be able to make wild speculations and assumptions based upon the events of the previous two weeks in my Yahoo H2H keeper league.

- After two matchups, The $5 Footlongs have taken a close lead over the Screaming Lemurs, Dissect Yourself, and Naterade.  The Footlongs have gone undefeated in every offensive category except for steals, though they have had middling results in the pitching categories.  Their victories over the Lemurs and the Macafeys have been very close, so it might not be time yet to chisel their name on the season trophy.  They've had incredible starts from Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley and Adam Jones; of the three I feel most confident in Cabrera's and Utley's abilities to maintain a high level of play, but Jones will eventually struggle at some point.  This is a good team (good enough that I put them on top of last week's power rankings), but they could easily be fourth or fifth.

- The Lemurs had a solid 10-0 victory over Summer Fox, but the matchup wasn't as lopsided as it looked.  The Fox came close to beating the Lemurs in Runs and RBI, but having Brandon Phillips and Garrett Atkins combine for 2 Runs and RBI surely didn't help his cause.  Incidentally, with Matsuzaka now on the DL, it seems that Rogstad needs to cut ties with Joey Devine in order to free up a DL spot and add a pitcher that will actually pitch this year.  Devine had surgery on his arm and will be out for the season.

- As far as the teams at the bottom of the standings, I think the Macafeys are most likely to make the playoffs.  They have too much talent to be stuck in the consolation bracket all year.  Order of the Phoenix will need to pitch better if they want to make the playoffs; none of their starters have an ERA under 5.00 to begin the year.  Orc Mischief has had a couple of tough matchups to begin the year, and I don't see them staying in the basement forever, though I don't know if they have the offense to make the playoffs.

- Let's give the Butt Admirals the "Hard Luck Award" for the first two weeks; they have tied in more categories than anyone, including tying in stolen bases each week, despite the fact that they are second in steals overall.  The Admirals would be in 7th if Emilio Bonifacio hadn't started the season so hot, or if Dustin Pedroia had stolen a base last week.

- The Tossers have stolen 6 bases so far this season, last in the league and half the amount that the Admirals and Orc Mischief put up in the first week.  It's possible that they could be the slowest team in the league, but they nearly tied Order of the Phoenix last week.

- Players that are hitting poorly this month that will hit better: Alexei Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Jay Bruce, and Chris Davis.

- Players that are hitting well that will drop off: Nick Swisher, Orlando Hudson, Mike Cameron, and Brandon Inge.

- Free Agents that I'm watching: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, Pedro Feliz, Nick Johnson, Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Davies, David Purcey, Tim Wakefield, Justin Masterson, Anibal Sanchez, and Octavio Dotel.

- Since this is a keeper league, I just wanted to briefly touch on some on some of the rookies performances so far this season.  Since most starters have only made two starts, we'll just look at the hitters.  Cameron Maybin hit his first HR today, but he's still hitting around the Mendoza line.  Colby Rasmus has more walks than strikeouts, which suggests good strike zone judgement on his part, but where's the power?  He only has one extra-base hit so far this year.  Travis Snider is hitting great, but the batting average will probably come down a bit.  The power is legit though, and 25 HR is realistic.  Elvis Andrus is also hitting well, and the stolen bases should come as long as he keeps getting on base.  Dexter Fowler is showing a solid combination of pop and speed.  Jordan Schafer is struggling and striking out way too much; where's his speed?  Based only on these past two weeks, Travis Snider should be the AL Rookie of the Year by a landslide.

- Some prospects that I'm waiting on for this year that no one has on their roster: Matt Gamel, Gordon Beckham, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Carrasco, and Tommy Hanson.    

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Here's More Keepers - Dissect Yourself

Let’s look at the keepers for Dissect Yourself.  Dissect Yourself finished first in the consolation playoff bracket last year, so they will have the first pick in the draft, which could help them make the jump into the championship playoff bracket.  Dissect Yourself has a good mix of upcoming and established talent, so they could be one All-Star away from being in playoff contention.  Here’s the roster.

Dissect Yourself

Clint Barmes (Col - 2B,3B,SS)          

Hank Blalock (Tex - 1B,3B)  

Jay Bruce (Cin - OF)  

Eric Byrnes (Ari - OF)           

Ryan Doumit (Pit - C,OF)     

Brian Giles (SD - OF)

Matt Holliday (Oak - OF)      

Orlando Hudson (Ari - 2B)   

James Loney (LAD - 1B)      

Mike Lowell (Bos - 3B)         

Xavier Nady (NYY - OF)     

Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B)        

Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF) 

Troy Tulowitzki (Col - SS)    

Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B) 

Jayson Werth (Phi - OF)        

Josh Willingham (Was - OF)  

Dave Bush (Mil - SP) 

Ryan Franklin (StL - RP)       

Jon Lester (Bos - SP) 

Mike Mussina (NYY - SP)    

Carlos Mármol (ChC - RP)    

Roy Oswalt (Hou - SP)          

Chris Pérez (StL - RP)           

Chad Qualls (Ari - RP)          

CC Sabathia (NYY - SP)       

Dan Wheeler (TB - RP)         

Though Matt Holliday’s value will undoubtedly take a hit with the move to Oakland, he is a good enough hitter that he should still give you a .300 BA, 25 HR and 100 RBI.  He’s not first-round material anymore, but he’s still a talented hitter in his prime.  The 28 SB were a nice surprise last year, but let’s not count on him doing that again, especially since his new team does not run very much. 

Alfonso Soriano has not been an iron man since coming to the Cubs, but when he plays, he rakes, hitting 62 HR in 244 games with the Cubs.  I think he’ll give you close to what he’s done the past two years, something like 30 HR with 20 SB.  He’s a solid source of speed and power. 

Brian Roberts has been pretty steady over the past three years, never hitting worse than .286, never stealing less than 36 bases, scoring less than 100 runs once, and nearly hitting 10 or more HR each season.  Despite not coming close to repeating his career-high 18 HR season, his slugging percentage has been trending upward for the past three years, as have his doubles totals.  It appears that he’s sacrificing fly ball hits for line drives, resulting in more doubles and helping his batting average.  I think we can expect another solid season from him, with another 40 SB.

C.C. Sabathia put together one of the best half-seasons for a pitcher in recent years, and he now finds himself with a new contract playing in front of one of the better offenses in the league.  Sabathia will be a little overrated going into this season, only because of how well he pitched in the second half and because of the high amount of innings he’s pitched over the past two years.  It’s possible that Sabathia will miss a start or two this year (in fact I expect it), but I think he’ll put together another solid, though probably not elite, season.  He’ll strikeout a good number of batters, and he should be in line for a good amount of wins since he pitches deep into nearly every game.

I didn’t like Roy Oswalt heading into last year because of the way his k/9 rate was trending down the last few years, but he rebounded to post a solid 7.12 k/9 rate last year.  Even if the strikeouts aren’t elite, Oswalt is still a good enough pitcher to give you a solid WHIP and ERA.  If not for a few bad starts in April and May last year, Oswalt would have had much better numbers for the season.  As it was, he turned it on in June, pitching his way to an ERA of 2.44 for the rest of the year.  Oswalt should have another solid season this year, with around 15 Wins. 

Jay Bruce was heavily-hyped when he came up last year.  He didn’t put up Ryan Braun numbers, but 21 HR in 413 at bats as a 21-year-old is nothing to sneeze at.  Bruce put up great numbers in the minors, something that I expect we will see him repeat in the majors some day.  I think he will hit for power this year, but struggle to maintain a good BA.  He’ll need to improve on his BA against lefties and on the road from last year.  He’s young, so there will be some slumps, but this kid has the kind of talent that you have to hold onto in keeper leagues.    

Dissect Yourself has a good amount of depth, so it was a little hard filling this last spot.  Dan Uggla is a good option as a keeper, providing the type of power you don’t normally see from a second baseman, but since we already kept Brian Roberts, I felt it would be good to have a little positional balance heading into the draft.  Ryan Doumit is a catcher I like for this year; if he stays healthy he could be a top-five catcher, but he does have a bit of an injury history.  He’s a great hitter, but I think there is more depth at catcher than people might think, and good value can be found later on in the draft.  James Loney is young and talented, but he’s never been much of a power hitter.  While I like Loney’s ability to hit for average, it’s good to have power from your corner infield slots, and I don’t think Loney will even hit 20 HR this year.  Xavier Nady was a bit of a surprise last year, but it looks like he might lose at bats in a crowded Yankees outfield, plus he’s never had 500 at bats before, so it’s hard to say that he will repeat last year’s production.  I think the pick here has to be Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulowitzki had a great rookie year and then a disappointing sophomore season last year.  He missed a lot of time with injuries, but he did have a couple good months when healthy, and he appears to be good to start the season.  I think we see him return to numbers closer to his 2007 year.  

Let me know what you think.

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Flapjacks Trade - Manny Ramirez for Jason Isringhausen and Todd Jones

Dissect Yourself (Micah) traded Manny Ramirez to the Summer Fox (Jon) for Jason Isringhausen and Todd Jones. Micah has a season record of 1-9-0 in the Saves category, so it makes sense to add closers to help J.J. Putz and C.J. Wilson.

It seems like Micah could have gotten better closers for Manny Ramirez, or at least closers with better job security. Jason Isringhausen has been on the DL for the past few weeks, recovering from lacerations on his hand suffered from pushing a TV, though it's not hard to imagine the Cardinals wanting to give him some time to get his mojo back. Isringhausen has blown 6 saves this year, and his ERA in 21 appearances is 8.00. His problems are due to a lack of control, an inability to strikeout batters, and a propensity for giving up home runs. There are signs that Isringhausen's luck might change, evidenced by a high BABIP and a low strand rate, but it's not even certain that he'll be the Cardinals' closer for the rest of the season when he comes off of the DL in a week or two. The Cardinals have other options available (Ryan Franklin, Chris Perez) so Isringhausen may not have the luxury of a long leash.

Todd Jones has continued to defy expectations by consistently putting up high save totals with very little in the way of pitch speed. Over the past three seasons, Jones has averaged 38 saves despite an ERA of 3.36, which doesn't tell you how shaky he pitched in 2006 and 2007. Jones doesn't strike anyone out, and he won't help you in WHIP or ERA, but he gets the job done. If Jones holds onto his job, which seems likely as the other Detroit candidates are pitching their way back from injuries, he should post another 30 save season, which is valuable if you can stomach the lack of production in other categories.

By getting Manny Ramirez, Jon upgrades his outfield and gets to move Adam Jones to the bench. Manny's on pace for another 30 HR, 100 RBI season, which should help Jon win a few weeks in those categories. Over the past three years, Manny has tended to heat up after the All-Star break, posting an OPS nearly .100 points higher than in the first half, so there shouldn't be any worry about Manny failing to continue his good start.

By giving up Jones and Isringhause, Jon is left with Billy Wagner as his only closer; unless he makes a move to acquire another closer, it would appear that Jon is punting the saves category. I commend him on his strategy because it enabled him to upgrade his offense significantly. Micah probably could have gotten more value for Manny Ramirez, maybe trading him for a top-ten closer like Matt Capps or Joakim Soria, but he did improve his ability to gain saves. Micah will miss Manny's production, but with Matt Holliday back from the DL, he does have a good outfield.

Vote in the poll which side of the trade you would have wanted.

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Flapjacks Trade - Jim Thome and Clay Buchholz for Roy Oswalt and Oliver Perez

Let's take a look at the latest trade in my Yahoo H2H keeper league.

1. Dinos (Jonathan) trade Roy Oswalt and Oliver Perez to Dissect Yourself (Micah) for Jim Thome and Clay Buchholz.

The Dinos received Roy Oswalt two weeks ago in a 7-player trade with Naterade. Since then, Oswalt has gone 0-3 with an ERA of 9.00 in three starts. There hasn't been any news of injury regarding Oswalt, but has not been the same pitcher that had back-to-back 20-win seasons just a few years ago. Though his control is still elite, with only two walks issued in 16 innings, he's been more prone this year to giving up home runs and his K/9 rate is still little better than average.

Oliver Perez has always given fantasy owners fits with his inconsistency, but at least you know he'll give you lots of strikeouts to accompany a high WHIP. He's pitched well to start the season, but he's probably due for a letdown, as his percentage of runners stranded has been quite high for his normal range. He should be good for double-digit wins and 170 strikeouts with the Mets.

Jim Thome has long been a fantasy beast with nine seasons of 35 HR or more, including 77 HR in his last two seasons. Thome has started the season slow this year, hitting .176 with a .573 OPS through twelve games. He's had trouble hitting lefties the past couple of years, but this year it's the right-handers that have been giving him problems. I think he'll recover once he starts to hit righties again. One hopeful stat is his poor Batting Average on Balls In Play; his BABIP should rise to its historical levels over the course of the season. He has been hitting a greater percentage of groundballs than normal, so he might just need to make some corrections at the plate. I still think he's good for 25 more home runs during the season.

Clay Buchholz has been tantalizing fantasy owners since his no-hitter during his rookie season last year. He has the talent the succeed, but the Red Sox are in no hurry to push him too hard, and it appears that they will be carefull with his pitch count during games. Buchholz has labored in his first two starts, and he might not see that many wins if he can't pitch past the sixth inning. The more he builds his arm strength during the season, the more innings he'll pitch, but he needs to cut down on his walks (4.09 BB/9). Buchholz will struggle some, but his K/9 rate is good enough to give him value even if he has control problems.

On paper, I think Micah's team got the better end of the deal, even though I'm not a Roy Oswalt fan. Micah strengthens his pitching staff by adding Oswalt and Perez; they step in right behind C.C. Sabathia and Brad Penny, giving the rotation some much-needed depth. Oswalt doesn't strike out enough players anymore to be considered an elite pitcher, but he's got more talent than what he's shown so far and he should rebound, as long as his problems are with his mechanics and not injury related. Micah will probably miss Thome's bat later on in the season, but Thome wasn't contributing much of anything to begin with.

I'm not certain that this move helps Jonathan's team very much; his offense was already one of the best in the league and the subtractions of Oswalt and Perez thins out a rotation that has some question marks. I think it's good that he got rid of Oswalt, but I think he might have gotten better value due to Oswalt's reputation as an elite pitcher. If Ben Sheets and John Smoltz get injured and Buchholz struggles, Jonathan will miss Oswalt and Perez. Buchholz could be good all year, but he hasn't shown dominance as a pitcher yet, despite only giving up four runs in two starts. The most favorable projections give him 9 Wins, 124 K's, a 3.53 ERA, and a 1.23 WHIP. Good numbers, but Perez should match the wins and better the strikeouts by quite a few. If Jonathan's looking to buy low on Thome and trade him away later on during the season when he starts hitting, then more power to him, but I don't see how this trade makes his team better.

I'll have a poll up in a couple of days; let me know which team you think got the better end of the deal, or if they both came out looking good.

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Keepers, Keepers, Here Come the Keepers

With the offseason in full-swing, and everyone all a-twitter with thoughts of A-Rod and the rest of the free-agents, there will be lots to discuss in the upcoming weeks. I'll be commenting on the notable transactions and their impact to the fantasy world, but while I have some free time, I'll be using this space to discuss who I think each manager in my fantasy league should keep for next year. Now, unless the Dodgers grossly over pay for Miguel Cabrera by giving up Matt Kemp, Andy Laroche, Clayton Kershaw, and Chad Billingsley, without also getting Dontrelle Willis or Dan Uggla in return, I will be posting these picks every couple of days. If the aforemention scenario does occur, I'll probably be driving out to take a fat dump on Ned Colletti's lawn. Let's get on with the picks.

Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. (For those who are unfamiliar with the strategy, streaming is the practice of picking up and starting as many pitchers as you can each day in order to win in the strikeouts and wins categories. This strategy requires good closers to win the saves category, and to offset the often poor ERA and WHIP totals that result.)

I'll be going through each team by draft order for next season. The first is Dissect Yourself, managed by Micah. He holds the first pick by virtue of being the consolation bracket champion.
Here is his roster, followed by my choices and comments:

Hitters
Josh Barfield (Cle - 2B)
Carlos Delgado (NYM - 1B)
Jason Giambi (NYY - 1B)
Todd Helton (Col - 1B)
Matt Holliday (Col - OF)
Raúl Ibañez (Sea - OF)
Austin Kearns (Was - OF)
Juan Pierre (LAD - OF)
Iván Rodríguez (Det - C,1B)
Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF)
Mark Teahen (KC - 1B,3B,OF)
Troy Tulowitzki (Col - SS)
Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B)

Pitchers
Brian Fuentes (Col - RP)
Jon Garland (CWS - SP)
Orlando Hernández (NYM - SP)
Braden Looper (StL - SP,RP)
Mike Mussina (NYY - SP)
Andy Pettitte (NYY - SP)
J.J. Putz (Sea - RP)
C.C. Sabathia (Cle - SP)
Ben Sheets (Mil - SP)
Javier Vázquez (CWS - SP)
Tim Wakefield (Bos - SP)
Dontrelle Willis (Fla - SP)

My Choices:

1. Matt Holliday
Holliday's an easy choice; the MVP candidate set career highs this past season in almost every meaningful offensive category. He'll be 28 when the season starts, right in the middle of his prime. His numbers are helped by playing half his games at Coors, but he's no slouch on the road, slugging .485 and batting .301. He's a borderline first-rounder, and should continue to be a highly productive player for the next few years.

2. Alfonso Soriano
Despite not rivaling last year's numbers, Soriano had another quality season, matching his career high in slugging percentage and almost equaling his career mark in batting average. He hit more than thirty home runs for the fifth time in his career, and his offensive numbers would have been even better if he hadn't missed most of August with an injured right hamstring. Hampered by the injury, he attempted less than thirty stolen bases for only the second time in his career. He's been a 30/30 threat throughout his career and should still have a few highly productive seasons left.

3. Juan Pierre
Juan Pierre may be overrated as a baseball player, but for fantasy owners looking for stolen bases, he's just right. Having Pierre on his team gives Micah a strong competitive edge in the stolen bases category; add in Soriano, and Micah could possibly have one hundred stolen bases between two players. Because of his poor on-base percentage, Pierre might find it harder to steal 50 plus bases as his legs get older, but he does provide a solid batting batting average, which is made more valuable to fantasy owners because of his high number of at bats. An interesting stat: Pierre has more walks than strikeouts in his career. Pierre rounds out a solid outfield for Micah.

4. Troy Tulowitzki
Tulowitzki is another solid keeper; despite his awful stats away from Coors, he is young enough to improve greatly on those numbers. The Rookie of the Year runner-up needs to cut down on his strikeouts, but he has the talent to hit 30 homeruns a year with a solid average. How he does next year without the anonymity of being a rookie will tell a lot about his abilities as a major leaguer.

5. Dan Uggla
Uggla was a top ten second baseman last year, and he could be top five if he can bring his batting average back up to his rookie mark of .282. Even though his batting average fell thirty points from last year, he increased his walk total by twenty. He offers a lot of pop for his position, leading all second basemen in homeruns despite playing in a park not conducive to them. Uggla was a solid infielder, and if he improves on last year's numbers, Micah will have a great middle infield.

6. C.C. Sabathia
Normally I don't advocate keeping pitchers, preferring to find them through the draft and off the waiver wire, but there aren't too many other viable options on Micah's team, and Sabathia was very good last year, rating behind only Jake Peavy on ESPN's player rater. My only concern is the high number of innings he pitched last season, thirty-one more than his career high (not counting 15.1 playoff innings in which he got shelled.) Sabathia could be poised for a letdown next season, but he has improved in strikeouts, walks and ERA over the last four years, showing his maturation into an elite pitcher.

7. J.J. Putz
While I normally don't advocate keeping starting pitchers, I almost never keep closers. Saves is a very volatile category, as is the closer position; over the past three seasons, only four closers have placed in the top ten for saves more than twice, only two have placed in the top five more than once. There are suprises at the top of the saves list each year, and this year was no exception with Jose Valverde and Joe Borowski coming in first and second with more than 45 saves each. Putz had his second season of 35 or more saves, and he was ranked the number one closer on ESPN's player rater. His strikeout rate was down compared to last year, but so was his Batting Average Against, with a ridiculous .153. He is a solid choice for next year.

The Also-Rans

There were a few players who could be considered as keepers for next year, but I just couldn't justify leaving anyone of this least for these guys. Jason Giambi suffered through injuries all last year, resulting in the second-worst OPS of his career. He most likely won't have first-base eligibility next year, relegating him to the Utility spot. At thirty-six his best years appear to be behind him. Carlos Delgado is another aging All-Star that just missed this list; he couldn't crack the top fifteen first basemen on the player rater and it's not that hard to find players at his position who hit 20-25 homeruns with better batting averages. He's not done yet, so keep an eye on him in the draft. Mark Teahen was a touted third base prospect, but he failed to build on last year's power numbers. With Alex Gordon vying for playing time, Teahen will only be OF eligible in 2008, and even repeats his production from 2006, it's hard to justify keeping a .285/20HR hitting outfielder over any of the guys on this list.

So, those are my picks for who Micah should keep. He definitely has a solid and balanced offense, and a good foundation for his pitching staff. He should be very competitive in 2008.

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