Trade Review - Ryan Howard for Nelson Cruz/Adam Wainwright/Roy Halladay

The final trade prior to the league's deadline, and the second of the day for the Macafeys, involves two teams heading for the consolation bracket during the playoffs. The Macafeys move Nelson Cruz, Adam Wainwright, and Roy Halladay to The Balls for Ryan Howard, as both teams look towards future keeper plans.

I think Tim gave up too much to get Ryan Howard. Howard is a beast who can hit 50 HR a year, but he's hit .262 since his MVP season in 2006, and he'll be 30 to start next season. When Howard was named MVP, he hit .313 with 58 HR, astounding numbers that I think will be an outlier for his career stats. Howard has power, but I don't like his chances to hit over .300 again. Tim did receive a talented player, as Howard will be his best first baseman and power hitter heading into the 2010 season, but I think he could have received a little better deal for the players he offered.

Those players include two of the best pitchers in the game, Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay. Halladay is putting up one of the best strikeout rates of his career, and he continues to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. Halladay will be 33 to start next season, but there's no reason to assume that he will not continue to be an ace in the AL. With 200 less starts in his career than Halladay, Wainwright has less of a track record of success than the Cy Young winner, but the young pitcher has shown this year that he has the talent to be one of the top 10 pitchers in the MLB. It's a sign of his talent that his numbers have gotten better as the year has moved along. If Brubaker keeps both pitchers along with new White Sox ace Jake Peavy, he will have a collection of pitching talent that could top any other team in the league. Typically I don't like to keep pitchers, but if you can amass a group of talented aces it can be worth the risk to keep them.

The third player in the trade, Nelson Cruz, looks like he could be a rich man's Mike Cameron. I was down on the late-blooming OF at the beginning of the year, but he has put up some impressive numbers this year with 26 HR and 17 SB. Brubaker may have to drop someone he likes to make room for Cruz on his keeper list, but he could be getting a top-20 OF if Cruz can keep his batting average in the .270-.280 range.

Read more!

Trade Review - Alex Rios/Andrew Bailey for Curtis Granderson

In the first of two trades by the Macafeys prior to the deadline, Tim trades Alex Rios and Andrew Bailey to the Screaming Lemurs for Curtis Granderson. The Lemurs appear to be nearly assured of a playoff spot, while the Macafeys are most likely headed for the consolation bracket.

With Andrew Bailey, the Lemurs now have a third closer to go along with Heath Bell and Leo Nunez. Bailey will be a strong #2 closer behind Bell, and this relief depth will help the Lemurs as they contend for the championship. He should have a handful of saves the rest of the year, and his high strikeout totals will come in handy. The Lemurs lose some power in this trade, but I believe the tradeoff is worth it to get more saves, and Rios's offensive potential should help make up for the loss of Granderson. Rios is only hitting .265 this year, but he has shown in the past that he can be a better hitter than Granderson and he can match Granderson's ability for steals. Rios has yet to have the breakout season that everyone has expected of him, but he is a decent keeper for next year due to his combination of power and speed.

Granderson is having a career year due to his HR and SB totals, and it seems obvious that the Macafeys like him better than Rios. I'm not too high on Granderson due to his inability to hit for high average throughout most of his career, but I think he can be a solid source for HR as he gets older. I don't think we can count on him being a 20/20 guy next year, but he should chip in enough steals to make him a top-20 outfielder. Whether or not he will be an upgrade over Rios in years to come is the main question, as the Macafeys are clearly betting that he will.

Read more!

Trade Review - Hunter Pence/Zack Greinke for Joey Votto

Last Sunday was the trade deadline in our league, and we had quite a bit of activity as teams tried to either improve for the playoffs or for next year. Three trades happened last week, and I hope to get to all of them by tomorrow night.

In the first trade before the deadline, the Butt Admirals traded Joey Votto to my team, Adrian's Revenge, for Zack Greinke and Hunter Pence. As presently situated, I didn't believe my team was strong enough to contend in the playoffs if I made them, so I made the decision to try and improve my keepers for next year by trading away some players that weren't in my plans for future domination. I felt that Joey Votto would be a good solid hitter to build around; at the age of 26, he'll be entering his prime heading into next season. Votto has consistently hit well, with a batting average well over .300 every month except for August, and he's had a slugging percentage of .500 or more during those same months. I think Votto will be a solid power producer, capable of hitting 30 HR with a great batting average, and I look forward to having him on my team for years to come.

Kimball strengthens his pitching staff heading into the postseason, which will allow him a better chance of competing against teams such as The $5 Footlongs and Orc Mischief. Zack Greinke has been a top-ten pitcher this year, and even though his team struggles to get him Wins, he has the talent to be a top-five pitcher next year. I don't like keeping pitchers because of the risk of injury; I wish I hadn't kept Ervin Santana this year, and I'm sure a lot of people wish they hadn't trusted Jake Peavy or Brandon Webb as keepers. You never know what can happen to a pitcher, and I prefer to roll the dice on B-and-C-list pitchers in the draft.

I saw Hunter Pence as a fringe-type keeper, and he might be able to make Kimball's keeper list for next year. Pence is a very streaky player, and that frustates me in a head-to-head league. He would have a terrific month, and then struggle for a month. He definitely has power and can provide some steals, though I doubt his ability to continue to steal since he gets caught almost as often as he succeeds, and he could be a very strong outfielder if he can put everything together from month to month.

Read more!

5 Weeks To Go

- We have five weeks left in the regular season before the playoffs starts; let's look at three teams fighting for a playoff spot.

Macafeys - 86-77-7 (tied for final playoff spot)
Balls - 84-75-11 (tied for final playoff spot)
Dinos - 77-84-9 (8 games out of final playoff spot)

With just five weeks to go, there isn't much time left to gain ground, but the Dinos do face the Macafeys once more before the season ends. With a strong showing against the Macafeys, the Dinos could pass them up for 7th place, just outside of a playoff spot. The Balls have the easiest schedule, with three matchups against teams out of contention.

The Balls and the Dinos just made a blockbuster trade, each time trying to fill a need as they head down the final stretch. The Balls traded Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, and Bobby Abreu for Ryan Howard, Chone Figgins, and Joe Nathan. The Balls are losing a lot on the offensive end, but they do gain back a premier slugger and an elite closer. With Joe Nathan, the Balls have upgraded their bullpen immensely, previously having to rely on Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman for saves. Even without Abreu, Pujols, and Cano, the Balls still have a formidable offense.

The Dinos have nearly gutted their bullpen, with Troy Percival as their only closer, but they have recharged their offense. Even when hurt, Pujols is still one of the best closers in the game, but the Dinos may have hurt themselves next year if Pujols has to miss most of the season because of surgery. Cano looks like he's shaken off his first-half slump, and he's now slugging .554 this month. Abreu gives the Dinos another decent bat in the outfield.

Will this trade help the Dinos overtake the Balls? Well they have more offense, and they should hit for better average, especially since they won't have to carry around Howard's .237 batting average. The Balls are a more well-rounded team with the addition of Figgins' speed and Nathan's saves. I think the trade was pretty even, but I'll say that it's not going to be enough to push the Dinos past the Balls.

- Taking a look at the trading block (which is a nice idea, but I wish Yahoo would make the presentation a little more user-friendly), the Dinos are offering up Corner Infielders and Outfielders for Starting Pitching. The Macafeys have Roy Halladay, Rich Harden, and Shaun Marcum on the trading block, and they are looking for HR and RBI. Let's see what could work for them, maybe J.D. Drew for Rich Harden or Carlos Beltran for Roy Halladay? I don't know, I'm just speculating.

- Carlos Guillen has more walks than strikeouts this month, and it's helping; he scored 12 runs last week and has 19 this month.

- Miguel Cabrera is going off this month; 13 RBI last week and 26 in July.

- Waiver Wire Watch: For those in need of a catcher, Ramon Hernandez has started to produce. He has an OPS of .814 so far in June and July.

For those looking for a pitcher, Bronson Arroyo has a WHIP of 1.12 in his last 33 innings.

Read more!

Monday Fantasy Baseball Thoughts

As we wait for the 2008 MLB season to begin on the other side of the globe, here are some random thoughts for Monday.


- In my 12-team H2H keeper league, I ended up drafting Rick Ankiel in the 18th round. I needed some power and I was willing to sacrifice average to get it, so I was looking for guys who could conceivably hit 25 or more home runs. I ultimately chose Ankiel over Josh Fields, and after hearing the news that, barring a trade, Fields will most likely start the season in the minors after failing to unseat Joe Crede at third base, I'm happy with the choice I made.

Now ultimately I believe that Fields will have a better career than Ankiel, and Fields shouldn't be in the minors for too long, but I'm glad that I went with the player who had greater job security and little competition at his position. In keeper leagues, a younger player with upside is almost always a more attractive option than a proven veteran who's reached his ceiling, but sometimes you have to go with the guy with the longer track record.

Granted, Ankiel's track record is actually smaller than Fields, but Fields has to contend with a crowded outfield and an incumbent third baseman who hit 30 HR in 2006. Ankiel just has to hold off the not-so-threatening combination of Ryan Ludwick and Brian Barton.

I'm willing to gamble that a full season of Ankiel will give me better value than a partial season of Fields. Sometimes is hard not to get caught up in the hype of a touted prospect, especially in a keeper league, but if you want to contend this year, go with the guy that is assured of a full-time job.

Here are some players that were taken in the middle rounds of our league's draft but either have already been sent down to the minors or a rumored to be sent down:

Colby Rasmus (The Balls dropped him for Dave Roberts)

Jay Bruce

Joey Votto (hasn't been sent down, but hasn't beaten Scott Hatteberg for the starting job

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (thinks he'll be sent down)

Evan Longoria (most likely will be sent down to start the season)

These rookies all have value in keeper leagues, but the chances that they'll be a top 100 player either this year or next is small. There just aren't that many Ryan Braun's in the world. I'll go with guy who actually has a job.

- Kerry Wood was named the Cubs' closer today. This is good news for me as I drafted Wood in hopes that this would happen. Carlos Marmol is still the better pitcher, and he definitely has value due to his strikeout ability and his good command. Now all I need is for Wood to stay healthy and keep the job for the whole year. If he can stay healthy and pitch consistently on back to back outings, 30 saves should be within reach.

In that same article, it was noted that Felix Pie has won the starting centerfielder's job and will bat 8th. It'll be interesting to see what he can do with consistent playing time, something that he was not given last year. Pie could easily steal 25 bases in a full season if he can adapt to major league pitching. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick talks about what Pie has to work on to succeed.

- If you're looking for a deep sleeper with power, you should keep an eye on Florida's Jorge Cantu. Cantu appears to have won the Marlins' third baseman job with a .457 average in 46 spring training at bats. He's been driving the ball well as nearly 40% of his hits have gone for extra bases. Cantu hit 28 HR in Tampa Bay in 2005, and 20 HR aren't out of the question if he can get 550 at bats. What is in question is his ability to hit lefties; he's hit .243 against them in 341 AB's over the last three years. Cantu won't replace Miguel Cabrera for the Marlins, but a better third base option has not presented itself for them, so monitor how Cantu starts the season if you need a few home runs from a corner infield position.

- Injury News

Brewer's lefthander Chris Capuano is likely out for the year. Capuano will probably undergo a second Tommy John surgery as opposed to rehab. Capuano has no value this year, and little for the next, which is a shame because Capuano was a good pitcher in 2005 and 2006 who kept the ball down. He had trouble last year and was moved to the bullpen, but I had hoped he might rebound this year and fly under everyone's radar. Oh well.

Scott Rolen broke his right middle finger during a fielding drill on Sunday. We'll have a time table on how long he'll be out once he sees a specialist on Monday, but GM J.P. Ricciardi says "the early prognosis is it isn't going to be six weeks". Chris Neault at The Disabled List Informer has his own prognosis.

Curtis Granderson also had his finger broken this weekend when he was hit by a fastball on Saturday. Granderson will go on the 15-day disabled list, and he expects to be ready in another three weeks. This doesn't sound too serious, and he shouldn't have much trouble getting back into form once he's healthy.

John Smoltz will likely start the season on the DL with a sore shoulder. This sounds like a precautionary move, and hopefully won't be something that bothers him throughout the year.

Brad Lidge has been placed on the 15-day DL, retroactive to March 21st, according to the Delaware Online. It looks like he'll miss the first 5 games of the season. I have Lidge on my team as part of a shaky closer trio with Matt Capps and Kerry Wood, so I'm praying this isn't a recurring theme for the year.

- Trade Talks

According to the Denver Post, the Rockies are trying to trade Marcus Giles to the Dodgers. Jayson Nix appears to have the second baseman's job sealed up, and Giles will not accept a minor league assignment, so it looks like a trade will be the only way to make him happy. As a Dodger fan, I'd rather see Tony Abreu get playing time at second while Jeff Kent's hamstring heals, but Abreu might have to replace Nomar Garciaparra and Andy Laroche at third. I don't think Giles will have much value wherever he's traded, so let's move on.

The Nationals are trying to trade Felipe Lopez. Lopez was behind Ronnie Belliard and Christian Guzman on Washington's depth chart, limiting any fantasy value he might have had. If he lands in the right place, Lopez could be a cheap source of steals. He's stolen 68 bases over the last two seasons, and he could have 25 SB this year if he gets traded to a team that likes to run. Watch to see how this plays out.

- What Other Blogs Are Saying

Keith Law points out that Eric Gagne isn't trusting his changeup and he's relying too much on his fastball.

Eric Hz at Fake Teams has some notes on Sunday's spring training performances, including Chad Billingsley and B.J. Upton.

ESPN has posted their 2008 sleepers for both mixed and NL/AL only leagues. Lot of intriguing names on this list, and a lot of guys who've already been on people's radars all spring (I'm looking at you Jeremy Hermida). Happily for me, both Austin Kearns and Rick Ankiel are on the list, reaffirming my own good feelings about them.

All right, less than 24 hours until the season starts. I can't wait.

Read more!