Trade Review - Ryan Howard for Nelson Cruz/Adam Wainwright/Roy Halladay

The final trade prior to the league's deadline, and the second of the day for the Macafeys, involves two teams heading for the consolation bracket during the playoffs. The Macafeys move Nelson Cruz, Adam Wainwright, and Roy Halladay to The Balls for Ryan Howard, as both teams look towards future keeper plans.

I think Tim gave up too much to get Ryan Howard. Howard is a beast who can hit 50 HR a year, but he's hit .262 since his MVP season in 2006, and he'll be 30 to start next season. When Howard was named MVP, he hit .313 with 58 HR, astounding numbers that I think will be an outlier for his career stats. Howard has power, but I don't like his chances to hit over .300 again. Tim did receive a talented player, as Howard will be his best first baseman and power hitter heading into the 2010 season, but I think he could have received a little better deal for the players he offered.

Those players include two of the best pitchers in the game, Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay. Halladay is putting up one of the best strikeout rates of his career, and he continues to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. Halladay will be 33 to start next season, but there's no reason to assume that he will not continue to be an ace in the AL. With 200 less starts in his career than Halladay, Wainwright has less of a track record of success than the Cy Young winner, but the young pitcher has shown this year that he has the talent to be one of the top 10 pitchers in the MLB. It's a sign of his talent that his numbers have gotten better as the year has moved along. If Brubaker keeps both pitchers along with new White Sox ace Jake Peavy, he will have a collection of pitching talent that could top any other team in the league. Typically I don't like to keep pitchers, but if you can amass a group of talented aces it can be worth the risk to keep them.

The third player in the trade, Nelson Cruz, looks like he could be a rich man's Mike Cameron. I was down on the late-blooming OF at the beginning of the year, but he has put up some impressive numbers this year with 26 HR and 17 SB. Brubaker may have to drop someone he likes to make room for Cruz on his keeper list, but he could be getting a top-20 OF if Cruz can keep his batting average in the .270-.280 range.

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Tip of the Cap

I want to offer a tip of the cap, to steal Stephen Colbert's oft-used and possibly trademarked phrase, to my opponent this week the Balls for their prodigious offensive output today.  They hit .386 with 10 Runs, 6 HR, and 15 RBI, giving them a large lead over my pitiful .194/7/1/2 day.

Big hitters for the Balls were Carlos Quentin with 2 HR and 4 RBI, and Aubrey Huff with 4 hits and 3 RBI.  The Balls' offense is off to a solid start this season, and I commend them on their strong performance today.

Though my offense fared poorly today, I'd be remiss if I didn't comment on the solid pitching performance I received from Zack Greinke in his match against the Indians.  Greinke struck out 9 in just 5 innings, and though his WHIP suffered from 6 hits and 2 walks, Greinke recieved the W.  Greinke has put up some great numbers in his first two starts, striking out 16 while keeping the opposition scoreless through 11 innings, and I'm excited to see what he'll do as the year progresses.  

Since we are giving out tips of the cap, I'd like to acknowledge the strong pitching performances that the Macafeys and Naterade put up against each other last week.  The Macafeys barely overcame Naterade in 3 out of the 5 categories while tying in Saves.  The Macafeys received strong performances from Erik Bedard, Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson, while Naterade countered with Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez.  Both teams look like they will have formidable rotations this year.

I hope to have a short power rankings up by Friday, and maybe a small look back at the first two weeks of the season early next week.  

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Almost Out Of Keepers - The Balls

As we near the finish line, let’s look at last year’s third-place finisher, The Balls.  Will they be contending for a title in 2009?  Here’s their roster.

The Balls

Garrett Atkins (Col - 1B,3B) 

Mike Aviles (KC - 2B,SS)     

Milton Bradley (ChC - OF)   

Pat Burrell (TB - OF) 

Jack Cust (Oak - OF) 

Mark DeRosa (Cle - 1B,2B,3B,OF)  

Chone Figgins (LAA - 2B,3B,OF)    

Adrián González (SD - 1B)   

Ramón Hernández (Cin - C)  

Ryan Howard (Phi - 1B)        

Carlos Quentin (CWS - OF)  

Hanley Ramírez (Fla - SS)     

Shane Victorino (Phi - OF)    

Randy Winn (SF - OF)          

Bronson Arroyo (Cin - SP)    

Erik Bedard (Sea - SP)          

Zack Greinke (KC - SP,RP)  

Trevor Hoffman (Mil - RP)    

Joe Nathan (Min - RP)           

Ricky Nolasco (Fla - SP)       

Jake Peavy (SD - SP) 

Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP)  

Matt Thornton (CWS - RP)   

Edinson Vólquez (Cin - SP)  

Adam Wainwright (StL - SP)

Chris Young (SD - SP)          

Hanley Ramirez is an easy choice, as he’s typically believed to be one of the top-two players in fantasy baseball.  He’s only 25, he has a career OPS of .906 in three seasons, and he’s averaged 45 SB in his short career.  According to his coach, Ramirez will hit primarily out of third spot this year, possibly limiting his stolen base opportunities but increasing his RBI chances.  Ramirez will give The Balls another elite season.

Ryan Howard is not the first-round fantasy hitter that he was during his MVP season in 2006, mainly because it doesn’t look like he will ever help you in batting average, but his power keeps him among the elite first basemen in the league.  Howard has averaged 51 HR in the last three seasons, and he should come close to hitting 50 again this year.  Howard is surrounded by a strong offense, so he’ll have a lot of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Carlos Quentin was one of Arizona’s best prospects, but he was never able to put things together until he was traded to the White Sox, where he put together a great year until he missed all of September because of a fractured wrist.  Quentin might lose some power because of last year’s wrist injury, but he should be able to repeat his other stats from last year.

The Padres tried to dump his contract during the offseason, but that doesn’t mean you should think about getting rid of Jake Peavy.  Peavy missed some time last year with an elbow injury, but he pitched great when healthy, and he’s been an elite talent for the past few years.  If Peavy can bring last year’s K/9 rate up to his career numbers, he’ll be in for another great season.

Adrian Gonzalez is another Padre, but unlike Peavy, playing at Petco doesn’t help his value.  Gonzalez has put up solid power numbers since joining the Padres, but most of his best work is done on the road, where his OPS is over .100 points higher than at home.  He’s only 26 and he had his most homers yet for the Padres last year, so there’s hope that we might one day see him hit 40 HR in a season.  Even if it’s not this year, expect another 30 HR season from Gonzalez.

Shane Victorino might not ever be a 20/20 player, but there’s nothing wrong with being a 15/30 player.  Victorino will give you close to 100 Runs and an average around .290, but the steals are where he gets most of his value.  Not a bad outfielder to have, he’s being drafted in the 8^th round on average over at ESPN. 

For the final pick, I’m going to eschew my normal guidelines and take Joe Nathan, a closer.  I took Joe Nathan instead of guys like Chone Figgins and Garrett Atkins because I feel he gives you the best value.  Nathan has never had less than 36 Saves in a season, and he rarely walks anyone, giving your team a good WHIP and ERA.  Nathan’s K/9 rate has been dropping from its formerly elite levels over the past couple of years, but he still strikes out a batter per inning which is more than closers such as Huston Street, Joakim Soria, and Matt Capps did last year.  I think Nathan is the guy to go with here.

As far as Figgins and Atkins go, I like Atkins better, but I’m not sold on Atkins ever developing the power that you want from a corner infielder.  Don’t be seduced by Figgins’ steals totals over the past few seasons; he will not give you much of anything else.  This team already has Ramirez and Victorino, so they should be fine with the speed they have going into the draft.  Figgins has been running less over the past couple of years because of injuries, but don’t expect him to suddenly steal 45 bases this year.

All right, just one more team to go, last year’s champion Macafeys.  I hope to get to their keepers next week, and then once everyone submits their 2009 keepers, I will do a short rundown of the top 3.  

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Random Thoughts

- I just wanted to point out that since the Tossers lost 7 matchups in row earlier this season, they have gone 5-1-1 over their last 7 matchups, beating a few highly ranked teams. Good job, Troost.

- Self Indulgence got to play the role of playoff spoiler last week when they beat the Macafeys 9-0. The Macafeys were tied with the Balls for the final playoff spot prior to the matchup, now they have to dig themselves out of a 5-game hole. Tim's team was let down by poor pitching and by poor hitting from his infield, but mostly he got beat by a team having a good week. Incidentally, the Macafeys are sitting at .500 and I can't remember the last time that's happened this late in the season.

- Things that caught my eye as I looked at the waiver wire:
For anyone looking for help at catcher, Jesus Flores is catching full-time for the Nationals, and he's .304 with 9 RBI over the past week. He's been getting most of his at bats in the 5th spot, so their could be the chance for more RBI production if he keeps hitting, but that depends on people getting on base for him.
Dave Bush has had a few good outings mixed in with some poor ones, but he could be a good pitcher to pick up if the matchup is right. He's pitched much better at home than on the road this year, with a 3.30 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. That is a ridiculously small WHIP.
Speaking of home/away splits, Greg Maddux has been very good when pitching at Petco. His Batting Average Against is .228 at home compared to .326 on the road, and he has a WHIP of 1.00 at home. Pick your matchups with Maddux, and he'll serve you well.
For all the talk about how Mike Cameron would finally be out of pitchers parks, he's hitting better when playing away from Milwaukee. His OPS is .906 on the road versus .627 at home. He'll flirt with 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases, not bad for player who missed the first month of the season.

- I'd like to thank Raul Ibanez for his stellar play over the last few days; he has 15 RBI in his last four games, and he's the main reason I am beating the Butt Admirals in RBI this week.

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5 Weeks To Go

- We have five weeks left in the regular season before the playoffs starts; let's look at three teams fighting for a playoff spot.

Macafeys - 86-77-7 (tied for final playoff spot)
Balls - 84-75-11 (tied for final playoff spot)
Dinos - 77-84-9 (8 games out of final playoff spot)

With just five weeks to go, there isn't much time left to gain ground, but the Dinos do face the Macafeys once more before the season ends. With a strong showing against the Macafeys, the Dinos could pass them up for 7th place, just outside of a playoff spot. The Balls have the easiest schedule, with three matchups against teams out of contention.

The Balls and the Dinos just made a blockbuster trade, each time trying to fill a need as they head down the final stretch. The Balls traded Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, and Bobby Abreu for Ryan Howard, Chone Figgins, and Joe Nathan. The Balls are losing a lot on the offensive end, but they do gain back a premier slugger and an elite closer. With Joe Nathan, the Balls have upgraded their bullpen immensely, previously having to rely on Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman for saves. Even without Abreu, Pujols, and Cano, the Balls still have a formidable offense.

The Dinos have nearly gutted their bullpen, with Troy Percival as their only closer, but they have recharged their offense. Even when hurt, Pujols is still one of the best closers in the game, but the Dinos may have hurt themselves next year if Pujols has to miss most of the season because of surgery. Cano looks like he's shaken off his first-half slump, and he's now slugging .554 this month. Abreu gives the Dinos another decent bat in the outfield.

Will this trade help the Dinos overtake the Balls? Well they have more offense, and they should hit for better average, especially since they won't have to carry around Howard's .237 batting average. The Balls are a more well-rounded team with the addition of Figgins' speed and Nathan's saves. I think the trade was pretty even, but I'll say that it's not going to be enough to push the Dinos past the Balls.

- Taking a look at the trading block (which is a nice idea, but I wish Yahoo would make the presentation a little more user-friendly), the Dinos are offering up Corner Infielders and Outfielders for Starting Pitching. The Macafeys have Roy Halladay, Rich Harden, and Shaun Marcum on the trading block, and they are looking for HR and RBI. Let's see what could work for them, maybe J.D. Drew for Rich Harden or Carlos Beltran for Roy Halladay? I don't know, I'm just speculating.

- Carlos Guillen has more walks than strikeouts this month, and it's helping; he scored 12 runs last week and has 19 this month.

- Miguel Cabrera is going off this month; 13 RBI last week and 26 in July.

- Waiver Wire Watch: For those in need of a catcher, Ramon Hernandez has started to produce. He has an OPS of .814 so far in June and July.

For those looking for a pitcher, Bronson Arroyo has a WHIP of 1.12 in his last 33 innings.

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Flapjacks Fantasy Transactions

Here's another look at some of the recent transactions in my Yahoo keeper league.

1.  Macafeys (Tim) drop Tim Wakefield and pick up Jason Varitek, then drops Varitek and picks up Asdrubal Cabrera.

I assume that this was done to take advantage of the two games that Boston plays this week, as Tim already has a decent, if raw option at catcher in Geovany Soto.

I don't know how much this will affect Wakefield's season, but Doug Mirabelli, Wakefield's personal catcher, was waived by the Red Sox.  Boston's catchers had problems catching Wakefield's knuckle ball last year, enough so that Boston was forced to trade for Mirabelli back from the Padres.  Wakefield has always managed to win games, but I think it's more likely that he continues to regress this year due to age.

Cabrera is a young second baseman with some upside upside.  He hit .310 in AA last year with an .837 OPS, then hit .283 in the majors after being called up in August.  He'll likely need another year or two before developing into a top ten 2B, but he does give Tim a decent option at MI in case Bobby Crosby is injured. 

2. The Balls (Bru) drop Carlos Quentin for Edison Volquez.

I like Volquez, but I'm not certain that Bru needed another pitcher, having already rostered six on his squad.  Maybe he wasn't completely confident in the abilities of Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez to pitch a full season.  

Quentin has talent and should get his share of at bats in the White Sox's outfield, but I don't think he's ready to be a solid contributor this year.  

This is a good pickup for the fact that Volquez has upside and Quentin was expendable, but I think Bru needs to improve his offense, especially since Cameron Maybin was just sent down.

3.  Tossers (Troost) picks up Jason Bartlett.

Since Kaz Matsui will miss the first couple weeks of the season with anal fissures, Troost needed to pickup a MI.  Bartlett stole 23 bases last year with the Twins, and with his move to the Rays, a team with a more aggressive base path philosophy, Bartlett should better those numbers.  The Rays will get twelve games against the Yankees and the Orioles in the first two weeks of the season, two teams with catchers that do not do a good job of limiting base stealers. Bartlett should have a few SB in during those series.

4.  Naterade (Nate) drops Josh Fields and picks up Andre Ethier.

Fields has been demoted to the minors, but he'll be back up this year, and he could provide great value as a keeper.  Fields has great power, but a poor batting average; if he can run like he did in AAA in 2006 when he stole 26 bases, he'll be a poor man's Ryan Braun.

Ethier has been one of the Dodgers' best players this spring, hitting .340 with 5 HR in 50 AB's. He could improve on his HR totals if he can beat out Juan Pierre for playing time in left field. Ethier could be a very good 5th outfielder, and he should provide Nate a decent option if Justin Upton or Adam Jones struggles to begin the year.  I like Ethier and I think he'll improve on his numbers from the last two seasons.

The only problem is that Nate is now severely lacking in corner infielders, with only Kevin Youkilis guaranteed playing time.  Time to hit the waiver wire, or trade one of your outfielders.

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