- We have five weeks left in the regular season before the playoffs starts; let's look at three teams fighting for a playoff spot.
Macafeys - 86-77-7 (tied for final playoff spot)
Balls - 84-75-11 (tied for final playoff spot)
Dinos - 77-84-9 (8 games out of final playoff spot)
With just five weeks to go, there isn't much time left to gain ground, but the Dinos do face the Macafeys once more before the season ends. With a strong showing against the Macafeys, the Dinos could pass them up for 7th place, just outside of a playoff spot. The Balls have the easiest schedule, with three matchups against teams out of contention.
The Balls and the Dinos just made a blockbuster trade, each time trying to fill a need as they head down the final stretch. The Balls traded Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, and Bobby Abreu for Ryan Howard, Chone Figgins, and Joe Nathan. The Balls are losing a lot on the offensive end, but they do gain back a premier slugger and an elite closer. With Joe Nathan, the Balls have upgraded their bullpen immensely, previously having to rely on Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman for saves. Even without Abreu, Pujols, and Cano, the Balls still have a formidable offense.
The Dinos have nearly gutted their bullpen, with Troy Percival as their only closer, but they have recharged their offense. Even when hurt, Pujols is still one of the best closers in the game, but the Dinos may have hurt themselves next year if Pujols has to miss most of the season because of surgery. Cano looks like he's shaken off his first-half slump, and he's now slugging .554 this month. Abreu gives the Dinos another decent bat in the outfield.
Will this trade help the Dinos overtake the Balls? Well they have more offense, and they should hit for better average, especially since they won't have to carry around Howard's .237 batting average. The Balls are a more well-rounded team with the addition of Figgins' speed and Nathan's saves. I think the trade was pretty even, but I'll say that it's not going to be enough to push the Dinos past the Balls.
- Taking a look at the trading block (which is a nice idea, but I wish Yahoo would make the presentation a little more user-friendly), the Dinos are offering up Corner Infielders and Outfielders for Starting Pitching. The Macafeys have Roy Halladay, Rich Harden, and Shaun Marcum on the trading block, and they are looking for HR and RBI. Let's see what could work for them, maybe J.D. Drew for Rich Harden or Carlos Beltran for Roy Halladay? I don't know, I'm just speculating.
- Carlos Guillen has more walks than strikeouts this month, and it's helping; he scored 12 runs last week and has 19 this month.
- Miguel Cabrera is going off this month; 13 RBI last week and 26 in July.
- Waiver Wire Watch: For those in need of a catcher, Ramon Hernandez has started to produce. He has an OPS of .814 so far in June and July.
For those looking for a pitcher, Bronson Arroyo has a WHIP of 1.12 in his last 33 innings.
Monday, July 28, 2008
5 Weeks To Go
Posted by
Ben Westrup
at
1:07 PM
6
comments
Labels: balls, bronson arroyo, carlos guillen, dinos, macafeys, miguel cabrera, ramon hernandez, trade talk
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
First Half MVP's and Cy Young Winners
Since it's halfway through the season, I thought I'd take a brief look at each team in my Yahoo fantasy league and see who their MVP and Cy Young winners are for the first half. I tried to avoid picking players that were picked up after the first month or who spent significant time on the DL. Teams are listed in order of their record, and the runners-up are listed in parentheses. I won't be providing any commentary on my picks, but feel free to let where I got things right or wrong in the comments.
1. Adrian's Revenge (79-46-5)
MVP - Carlos Lee (Brian McCann)
CY - Kerry Wood (Ervin Santana)
2. Screaming Lemurs (72-50-8)
MVP - Ian Kinsler (Ryan Braun)
CY - Cole Hamels (Brandon Webb)
3. The Balls (70-54-6)
MVP - Hanley Ramirez (Adrian Gonzalez)
CY- Mariano Rivera (Edinson Volquez)
4. Val Kilmer's Asshole (70-55-5)
MVP - Lance Berkman (Josh Hamilton)
CY - Jonathan Papelbon (Scott Kazmir)
5. Naterade (71-57-2)
MVP - Justin Morneau (Kevin Youkilis)
CY - Francisco Rodriguez (Felix Hernandez)
6. Butt Admirals (65-53-12)
MVP - Grady Sizemore (Nate McLouth)
CY - Dan Haren (Josh Beckett)
7. Macafeys (68-58-4)
MVP - Derek Lee (David Wright)
CY - Roy Halladay (Shaun Marcum)
8. Dinos (62-62-6)
MVP - Chase Utley (Carlos Beltran)
CY - Tim Lincecum (Cliff Lee)
9. Dissect Yourself (48-71-11)
MVP - Dan Uggla (Matt Holliday)
CY - Carlos Marmol (C.C. Sabathia)
10. Summer Fox (49-76-5)
MVP - Brandon Phillips (Jason Bay)
CY - John Lackey (Billy Wagner)
11. Tossers (45-78-7)
MVP - Alex Rodriguez (Corey Hart)
CY - Joe Saunders (Takashi Saito)
12. Self Indulgence (42-81-7)
MVP - Chipper Jones (Mark Reynolds)
CY - Johan Santana (Jose Valverde)
Posted by
Ben Westrup
at
9:00 AM
7
comments
Labels: flapjacks
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Flapjacks Power Rankings Week 13
(Season record and last week's rankings in parentheses.)
1. Adrian's Revenge (71-44-5) (1)
My team retains the number one ranking after a tough matchup versus one of the preseason favorites, the Dinos. It was a big offensive week with 17 HR from my team, led by Carlos Lee, Brian McCann, and Mark Teixeira. Hopefully Teixeira's 3-home run outburst on Sunday is signalling an offensive turnaround for the first baseman. His .906 June OPS is his highest of the season, and he's been consistently better in the second half of the season for his career. Brad Hawpe continues to hit well, and the team could receive a boost from a recently healthy Josh Willingham, if his back doesn't affect his power. My third basemen have been dropping like flies, with Ryan Zimmerman on the DL for at least another month, and Kevin Kouzmanoff has missed the past six games with back problems, though it looks like he'll avoid the DL.
On the pitching side, Ervin Santana and Justin Duchscherer continue to dominate; for the month of June they've combined for 6 Wins, 43 K's, a 2.41 ERA, and a 1.05 WHIP. The bullpen has also been stellar, shutting out the competition over their last 15.1 innings, but Javier Vazquez has been knocked around a bit the last month, and Ian Snell continues to struggle after a promising couple of starts. Snell has soreness in his pitching elbow, but it seems that he'll only miss a start. Some time off may help him clear his head, but he's been awful for most of the year. In other news, Rich Hill has been sent to the Cubs spring training complex to work on his mechanics; he's been wild in AAA and it's hard to know if the promising pitcher will ever contribute to my fantasy team this season. My pitching staff is in trouble, but so far they've been able to stay competitive.
2. The Balls (67-48-5) (2)
The Balls suffered from a bit of a power outage last week, but still managed to beat Summer Fox 8-1. Luckily the Balls have studs like Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez to keep them afloat. There's a lot of talent on this team, but they need everyone to step up to their potential if they want to win. Robinson Cano is still struggling, hitting .220 in June after it looked like he had gotten his season back on track when he hit .295 in May. Pat Burrell is still showing power but he's slumped recently. Milton Bradley has hit well this season, but it looks like the bumps and bruises are beginning to take their toll; the Balls have depth to weather injuries, but they need players like Melky Cabrera and Bobby Abreu to be productive. Luckily Albert Pujols should be back this week, giving them a much need offensive boost.
The pitching staff is hurting, but Zack Greinke and Edinson Volquez have pitched well as of late. The Balls need Jake Peavy to pitch like Jake Peavy, otherwise this team could be done in by inconsistent production.
3. Screaming Lemurs (65-47-8) (3)
The Lemurs had a very strong week offensively; Jermaine Dye hit 5 HR last week, and Aramis Ramirez hit 4. There's a lot of offensive talent on this team, and everyone's been performing well over the past month. With Victor Martinez injured for a while, the Lemurs need Jeff Clement to pick up the slack and live up to the hype, and it sounds like Seattle is giving him the chance to do that by making him a starter.
Brandon Webb has been awful in June so far, but Cole Hamels has been lights out. Despite a lack of closers, the bullpen is looking strong and Salomon Torres appears to have really taken to the role of closing for the Brewers. Santiago Casilla should be a good addition, as he was pitching well before he got hurt; he'll help with K's and WHIP/ERA. The Lemurs have a strong squad and they've stayed consistent throughout the year; I believe they'll be competing deep into the playoffs this year.
The Kilmer's have a good offense, but injuries have plagued this team all year. David Ortiz is out for at least another month, and who knows how Andruw Jones will perform when he comes back at the All Star Break? Incidentally, I'm curious to know why Marky continues to burn a bench spot on Ortiz by not using his second DL spot. Even with the injuries, this team has a good offense; Josh Hamilton, Lance Berkman, and Jose Reyes have been great, and Jeremy Hermida looks like he's starting to turn his season around. One player who's performance has still be disappointing is Jarrod Saltalamacchia. His slump hasn't helped fill the holes at first base and catcher.
I picked the Dinos in the preseason to compete for first place, but their record has kept them in the middle of the pack. Despite their mediocre record, they have competed statistically and are in the top three in the league in almost every category. Part of their problem has been poor luck; despite having the league's best ERA and WHIP, their record in those categories is 6-6 and 7-5 respectively. They also have the third-most home runs but only a 5-6-1 record. Things are looking up for the Dinos, as for the first time all season, they have a fully healthy roster. Eric Byrnes is back from the DL, and the Dinos will look for him to regain some of last year's production. J.D. Drew and Carlos Beltran both had great weeks, but the infield has struggled greatly. Miguel Tejada has only 6 RBI in June, and Chase Utley has hit .229 this month. Chase Headley has produced since being called up, with 2 HR in 24 at bats, and he could be the second-half spark that this team needs.
The pitching staff, led by Ben Sheets and Andy Pettitte, has been very strong lately. The bullpen is shallow, but Joe Nathan and Troy Percival have been very productive.
Posted by
Ben Westrup
at
9:39 AM
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comments
Labels: power rankings
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Flapjacks Power Rankings Week 12
Let's take a look at the teams in my Yahoo H2H keeper league and see how they're doing. Hopefully I'll be able to do these power rankings more consistently, and provide more original content as well. Doubtful, but one can only hope.
6/17 Flapjacks Power Rankings
(Season record and last week's rankings in parentheses.)
1. Adrian's Revenge (66-40-4) (3)
Though my team has the best record in the league, I almost didn't give myself the top ranking this week, and it might be a short stay if I suffer a second consecutive losing week. My pitching staff has been very strong, leading in Wins and Saves, and we're also second in Home Runs, but I'm last in Steals and second to last in Batting Average. But then again, almost every team in the league has issues right now. Anyways, let's talk about why my team should be the best.
Despite inconsistent pitching from Ian Snell and Rich Hill, my pitching has been strong; I've had strong performances from Javier Vazquez, Ervin Santana, and Ted Lilly, but my success is mainly to do with a strong bullpen. With Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Jon Rauch, and Matt Capps, I can dominate in Saves and compete in WHIP, ERA, and K's. Snell has had a couple good starts recently, so he could be turning a corner.
Injuries have slowed my offense, but Mark Teixeira and Carlos Lee have hit well. Chris B. Young has struggled recently, and I need him to start performing like last year. Kelly Johnson has been disappointing since I traded Brian Roberts for him; I already regret not trying to get a better second baseman. Brad Hawpe has performed well since coming off the DL, and he could be a decent pickup for the second half. There's enough talent on this team to make it a strong performer over the rest of the season.
2. The Balls (59-47-4) (2)
The Balls lead the league in Home Runs, RBI, and WHIP, and they also are very strong in Runs and ERA. Their only weakness is a lack of speed; other than Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino, there's really no one else that can steal 30 bases. But this team makes up for it in power. They have six guys on pace for 30 or more home runs. Pat Burrell has been especially good lately, rebounding from a poor April to .333 this month. Losing Albert Pujols for three weeks hurts, but it sounds like he could return ahead of schedule.
The pitching staff has performed well recently after struggling, and Jake Peavy looks to be healthy. Erik Bedard had an encouraging performance against Washington, striking out 8 in six innings. But there's still not a lot of depth to this staff, especially with Adam Wainwright possibly missing a month due to a sprained finger. Even if Eric Gagne regains his closer role when he comes off of the DL, the bullpen is still not very strong.
3. Screaming Lemurs (60-42-8) (4)
The Lemurs are not spectacular offensively, but they are solid enough to be competitive each week. They also have shown a lack of speed so far this year, mostly due to Curtis Granderson not running as much as expected and Rafael Furcal being on the DL. Injuries are a problem on this team, with Victor Martinez and Furcal out for another two months. The Lemurs could slump if overachievers such as Jorge Cantu and David Murphy have rough weeks. Ian Kinsler won't be a 30/30 man this year, but he'll come close.
The pitching staff is very good, and there's no reason why they shouldn't continue to dominate in K's. Clay Buchholz could return from the minor leagues soon and strengthen this staff, and Dustin McGowan has 3 Wins in his last four starts. The bullpen continues to be a weakness, with no pitcher guaranteed save chances, and not much in the way of strikeouts.
4. Macafeys (59-48-3) (1)
The Macafeys have had a rough last couple of weeks; B.J. Upton and David Wright have struggled recently, and Alex Rios hasn't hit a home run in over a month. The good news is that this team arguably has the most talent in the league. Derek Lee is hitting .348 over his last twenty-three at bats, and Jimmy Rollins has scored 8 Runs in the past week. But Jeff Francoeur and Alex Gordon have been a bit of a disappointment for those expecting strong seasons. Despite the Macafeys' flaws, they have hardly any weaknesses.
The bullpen is a little thin, but Tim's starters have been good. Rich Harden has stayed healthy, and Tim will need a healthy Harden if he wants to compete in the pitching categories.
5. The Dinos (55-50-5) (5)
It bodes well for the Dinos championship chances that despite the mediocre record, they still are in the top three of six out of the ten scoring categories. The Dinos have been very productive, they just don't have the wins to show for it. Ryan Howard has been a beast, hitting 2 HR and 13 RBI in the last four games. The Dinos offense is really clicking right now; 2/3 of their team is hitting over .300 for the past week. Eric Byrnes is the only really disappointing player on the roster, with just 4 SB and 6 HR for the season. Chase Headley should be activated this week; time to see what he can do.
The pitching staff has talent, but after Tim Lincecum and Ben Sheets, the talent drops off quickly. With just Troy Percival and Joe Nathan in the bullpen, relief pitching is not a strength. Clayton Kershaw appears to be improving, so he could help in the second half.
6. Val Kilmer's Asshole (62-44-4) (6)
Despite their record, this team does not dominate much in any one category. They have a strong bullpen, and their team has power, but injuries have hurt this team. Lance Berkman and Josh Hamilton have been great, but other than Jose Reyes, there aren't many other standout stars on this team. It's a shame that David Ortiz got injured just as he was starting to come out of his early season slump; now we'll have to see if his wrist will be a hindrance for the rest of the year. I'm not certain why Mark hasn't put Ortiz on the DL, considering he has an open DL spot. Jarrod Saltalamacchia hasn't performed up to preseason expectations.
Jonathan Papelbon and Huston Street have been good out of the bullpen, but the rest of the pitching staff has been inconsistent. Luckily Justin Verlander appears to be turning the corner.
7. The Butt Admirals (57-44-9) (8)
The Admirals offense is speedy, but they lack power. Willy Taveras should steal 50 bases this year, and Grady Sizemore and Ryan Theriot could each have 30. Besides those three, there are at least three others who could steal 20 this year. But when looking at home runs, there are only four players that could hit 30 this year, and I don't think that one of them (Vlad Guerrero) is going to do it. The good news is that Grady Sizemore has gone on a tear over the past week, hitting 5 HR in six games, and Prince Fielder's slugging percentage has rebounded this month.
The Admirals' main strength is their pitching; they have a strong group of starters, and their bullpen, despite consisting of only Bobby Jenks and Joakim Soria, is elite. Bronson Arroyo looks like a smart pickup, but Aaron Harang has struggled in May and June, with an ERA over 5.00. He did look good in his last start, so hopefully he won't wear down over the course of the season.
8. Naterade (58-51-1) (7)
Naterade's offense has been disappointing; if it wasn't for the surprising play of Ryan Ludwick, they'd probably be last in home runs. As it is, there is not a lot of power on this team. Gary Sheffield should return soon, but he's been disappointing so far this season. Mike Cameron should be a good pickup for power and speed, as long as you can survive the low average.
The bullpen has been dominant, with many save opportunities, though Ryan Franklin might not have the closer's role for long. Francisco Liriano has pitched well in the minors, so he could be of help in the second half, though his velocity is not where it was before his surgery.
9. Self Indulgence (35-68-7) (11)
The Self Indulgence has a decent offense, but no speed to speak of and not much in the way of pitching, especially now that Chien-Ming Wang might miss the rest of the year. Chipper Jones has been the man for this team, and he should continue to lead the way offensively. Carlos Pena is a bit of a disappointment; sure, he probably wasn't going to hit .280, but .227 and a DL stint just isn't fair.
Johan Santana is a stud, but he can't do it by himself. This pitching staff is shallow, but a strong bullpen has helped carry the weight. Gil Meche has had two strong outings in a row, and more performances like those would help.
10. Dissect Yourself (42-60-8) (10)
Dissect Yourself doesn't have much in the way of pitching, but they do have a good offense, though it remains to be seen how they'll weather Alfonso Soriano's absence for the next six weeks. Dan Uggla has been a great surprise this year, and Brian Roberts has really done well since being added to this team.
The bullpen is now more of a strength, even with J.J. Putz on the DL. Adding Brandon Morrow gives him four possible closers, and having Carlos Marmol is like getting an extra solid starting pitcher each week. The pitching staff could be turning around after C.C. Sabathia and Roy Oswalt were both lights out in their last two starts.
11. Summer Fox (41-66-3) (12)
The Fox is last in Wins and K's, and their offense hasn't been much to speak of. Adding Manny Ramirez will help, but injuries have set this team back. Paul Konerko has especially been disappointing, but Jason Bay appears to have rebounded from a poor season last year. Now we just have to wait and see when Colby Rasmus will be called up, and whether he'll be more like Adam Lind or Jay Bruce.
Daisuke Matsuzaka and Fausto Carmona should be back in the next week, which is good news for a staff that had been basically relying on John Lackey to carry the load by himself. Billy Wagner has been struggling lately; since the Fox is not going to be winning any Saves categories this year, it might be wise to shop Wagner around while he still has value.
12. The Tossers (35-69-6) (9)
The Tossers have had arguably the worst pitching staff, and their offensive production is in the bottom three. It's hard to imagine where this pitching staff would be without Joe Saunders. With Chris Young sidelined for almost a month, it's fallen upon Saunders and John Maine to carry the team, and Maine has an ERA of 5.40 over the past month. In the bullpen, Takashi Saito hasn't been getting many save opportunities, and Tom Gordon has had two consecutive bad outings.At the plate, Nick Swisher might be finally turning things around, but the Tossers still need Travis Hafner to be healthy and productive.
If Troost were to ask my advice, which he hasn't, I would say that he should shore up his offense by trading away his starting pitching. Put together pitching packages to try and improve the bullpen, making sure to get solid closers. Pick up as many solid middle relievers with high K-rates as you can, and then spot-start nine starters each week. The idea is to improve the offense enough to be competitive each week, and improve your chances to win K's, ERA, Saves, and WHIP with a solid group of relievers. If you're smart and a bit lucky, you can pick and choose your starting pitching matchups, with the hope that they will get you Wins and not hurt your WHIP and ERA.
All right, whether you agree or disagree with anything I've said today, let me hear about it.
Posted by
Ben Westrup
at
9:09 AM
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Labels: power rankings
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Flapjacks Trade - Manny Ramirez for Jason Isringhausen and Todd Jones
Dissect Yourself (Micah) traded Manny Ramirez to the Summer Fox (Jon) for Jason Isringhausen and Todd Jones. Micah has a season record of 1-9-0 in the Saves category, so it makes sense to add closers to help J.J. Putz and C.J. Wilson.
It seems like Micah could have gotten better closers for Manny Ramirez, or at least closers with better job security. Jason Isringhausen has been on the DL for the past few weeks, recovering from lacerations on his hand suffered from pushing a TV, though it's not hard to imagine the Cardinals wanting to give him some time to get his mojo back. Isringhausen has blown 6 saves this year, and his ERA in 21 appearances is 8.00. His problems are due to a lack of control, an inability to strikeout batters, and a propensity for giving up home runs. There are signs that Isringhausen's luck might change, evidenced by a high BABIP and a low strand rate, but it's not even certain that he'll be the Cardinals' closer for the rest of the season when he comes off of the DL in a week or two. The Cardinals have other options available (Ryan Franklin, Chris Perez) so Isringhausen may not have the luxury of a long leash.
Todd Jones has continued to defy expectations by consistently putting up high save totals with very little in the way of pitch speed. Over the past three seasons, Jones has averaged 38 saves despite an ERA of 3.36, which doesn't tell you how shaky he pitched in 2006 and 2007. Jones doesn't strike anyone out, and he won't help you in WHIP or ERA, but he gets the job done. If Jones holds onto his job, which seems likely as the other Detroit candidates are pitching their way back from injuries, he should post another 30 save season, which is valuable if you can stomach the lack of production in other categories.
By getting Manny Ramirez, Jon upgrades his outfield and gets to move Adam Jones to the bench. Manny's on pace for another 30 HR, 100 RBI season, which should help Jon win a few weeks in those categories. Over the past three years, Manny has tended to heat up after the All-Star break, posting an OPS nearly .100 points higher than in the first half, so there shouldn't be any worry about Manny failing to continue his good start.
By giving up Jones and Isringhause, Jon is left with Billy Wagner as his only closer; unless he makes a move to acquire another closer, it would appear that Jon is punting the saves category. I commend him on his strategy because it enabled him to upgrade his offense significantly. Micah probably could have gotten more value for Manny Ramirez, maybe trading him for a top-ten closer like Matt Capps or Joakim Soria, but he did improve his ability to gain saves. Micah will miss Manny's production, but with Matt Holliday back from the DL, he does have a good outfield.
Vote in the poll which side of the trade you would have wanted.
Posted by
Ben Westrup
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1:45 PM
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Labels: dissect yourself, jason isringhausen, manny ramirez, summer fox, todd jones, trades
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Line Drives and Patience
In my mind, if you're hitting line drives you're probably going to stand a good chance of getting on base. It also seems likely in my mind, that if you're hitting line drives you must be getting some extra-base hits. If you're patient and able for a good pitch to drive without striking out often, in my mind you're probably a good hitter. So if you hit line drives often and you're patient and able to make contact, it seems to me that you're getting on base a lot, driving in runs, and scoring runs.
Now I don't have any statistical evidence to back this up; this just seems like the profile of a skilled hitter that I'd like to have. So, with little analysis, here are ten batters this season who've hit line drives over 20% of the time they make contact, walked more than 10%, and struck out less than 25% of the time.
Most of these players are rostered in nearly every league. I've included their stats as of today, so it will be interesting to see how they hit over the next month, and whether or not they still fit the profile of a good hitter.
1. Marco Scutaro (26.8% LD, 11.6% BB, 15.6% K)
.269 BA/.358 OBP/.347 SLG/.705 OPS
2. Orlando Hudson (26.1% LD, 10.0% BB, 13.5% K)
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Ben Westrup
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4:23 PM
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Labels: line drives and patience
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Flapjacks Power Rankings Week 10
Agree or disagree with my thoughts, just let me hear about it.
Posted by
Ben Westrup
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6:03 PM
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Labels: power rankings