Even More Keepers - Butt Admirals

Time to take a look at possible keepers for the Butt Admirals.  The Admirals finished in 10th place last year, so let's see how good their chances look heading into the draft.  For those wondering what I'm talking about, check out some of the previous keepers posts to find out.  Here's the roster.

Butt Admirals

Carlos Delgado (NYM - 1B) 

Edwin Encarnacion (Cin - 3B)          

Prince Fielder (Mil - 1B)        

Kosuke Fukudome (ChC - OF)         

Vladimir Guerrero (LAA - OF)         

J.J. Hardy (Mil - SS)  

Nate McLouth (Pit - OF)       

Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B)     

Kelly Shoppach (Cle - C)       

Grady Sizemore (Cle - OF)    

Fernando Tatis (NYM - CI,OF)        

Willy Taveras (Cin - OF)       

Marcus Thames (Det - 1B,OF)          

Ryan Theriot (ChC - 2B,SS)  

Joey Votto (Cin - 1B,OF)      

Rickie Weeks (Mil - 2B)        

Scott Baker (Min - SP)          

Josh Beckett (Bos - SP)         

Jorge Campillo (Atl - SP,RP) 

Dan Haren (Ari - SP) 

Bobby Jenks (CWS - RP)      

Ubaldo Jimenez (Col - SP)    

Scott Olsen (Was - SP)          

Mike Pelfrey (NYM - SP)      

Joakim Soria (KC - RP)    

     

The obvious picks are Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore, and Dustin Pedroia.  Sizemore is a legit first-rounder entering his prime who has averaged 26 HR, 28 SB, and 116 Runs over the last four years.  He does tend to strikeout often, hurting his batting average, but his upside for 2009 is a consecutive 30/30 season.  Fielder will mash; I don’t think he’ll hit 50 HR this year, but I think 40 are definitely in reach.  Pedroia, the reigning AL MVP, will be overrated in drafts this year, but he does have value at a shallow position.  Pedroia will always hit for average, but I’m not sure that he’ll repeat his 17 HR from last year.  I’m thinking a more conservative estimate might be 15 HR, 18 SB, with a batting average around .320.  The Admirals will be happy with anything more than that.

3 spots down, 4 to go.  I think that Joey Votto has to be a keeper on this team.  He had a strong minor-league career, he raked in his first pro season, and he’s only 25.  He may regress this year, but the Admirals should keep him with an eye towards the next six years.

If you’ve read my previous posts, then you know how I feel about pitchers.  Nevertheless, Dan Haren was a top-ten starter last year, and he has the talent to repeat.  Some encouraging signs to note: Haren was able to cut down on his walks and raise his strikeouts last year, leading to a ridiculous 5.15 K/BB ratio.  Even if he regresses a bit, Haren will still be an elite pitcher.

I liked Nate McLouth a lot going into 2008, but I like him less for this year.  Funny the difference a year makes.  McLouth still provides good value, but I think last year’s numbers represent a ceiling for him.  McLouth had some inconsistent months last year, and I think that will continue to be the case for him.  I say bank on another 20/20 season with serviceable batting average, and be thankful for anything else he gives you. 

For the last spot, I’m going to dismiss the rest of the pitchers.  Joakim Soria is an elite closer who tends to be underrated because of his team, but while I don’t like to keep pitchers, I never like to keep closers.  Even elite closers can turn into pumpkins, so it’s better to go with a bit safer pick.  Josh Beckett has a lot of talent, but he does tend to spend some time on the DL each year.  When he’s healthy, he can be a top-ten pitcher, but it’s better to stay away from pitchers with an extensive injury history if possible.  J.J. Hardy has shown good pop at shortstop the past two years, but it’s his streakiness that concerns me.  Last year he had three months where he was bad to average, and three months where he was very good.  In mock drafts, I’ve been seeing him go in the middle rounds to fill the MI roster spot; he could put a very good year together this year, but it might be better to wait and pick him up in the draft.

I can see an argument for keeping Hardy, but I’m going the opposite direction and recommending that the Admirals keep a player with a lot of miles on him but who should have one more good year left.  That’s right, I’m going with Vladimir Guerrero.  Vlad is not the five-tool, 40/40 threat (or even the 30/15 threat) he once was, but I think he’s got one more top-20 outfield season in him.  What gives me hope is that with the Bobby Abreu signing, the Angels have more outfielders than they know what to do with, enabling them to give Guerrero a lot of starts at DH.  Hopefully limiting his time in the field will limit the amount of time he spends on the DL this year.  If he can get 550-600 at bats, then put him down for another 30 HR season.

Once again, feel free to let me know how smart or dumb I am in the comments.

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More Keepers - Summer Fox

Let's take a look at the possible keepers for the Summer Fox.  For those who remember from the last post, I'll be looking at which seven players I think each owner in our Yahoo H2H league should keep for the upcoming season.  Here's the roster for the Summer Fox.

Summer Fox

Jason Bay (Bos - OF) 

Adrián Béltre (Sea - 3B) 

Stephen Drew (Ari - SS) 

Yunel Escobar (Atl - 2B,3B,SS) 

José Guillén (KC - OF) 

Todd Helton (Col - 1B) 

Akinori Iwamura (TB - 2B,3B) 

Kenji Johjima (Sea - C)  

Adam Jones (Bal - OF)  

Paul Konerko (CWS - 1B)  

Jason Kubel (Min - OF)  

Brandon Phillips (Cin - 2B) 

Manny Ramírez (LAD - OF) 

Colby Rasmus (StL - OF) 

Aaron Rowand (SF - OF) 

Skip Schumaker (StL - OF) 

Ichiro Suzuki (Sea - OF) 

Mark Buehrle (CWS - SP) 

Fausto Carmona (Cle - SP) 

Randy Johnson (SF - SP) 

Hiroki Kuroda (LAD - SP) 

John Lackey (LAA - SP) 

Justin Masterson (Bos - SP,RP) 

Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos - SP) 

Greg Smith (Col - SP) 

Billy Wagner (NYM - RP) 

First off, we have some no-brainer picks: Ichiro, Manny Ramirez, Brandon Phillips, and Jason Bay.  On average, these guys are being taken before the fourth round.  I don't think Jason Bay will revert to his 2007 season form, but I don't expect him to improve on last year's numbers.  Ichiro is getting older - he posted his lowest OPS total since he's been in the U.S. last year - but he can still run and help your batting average.  He should still be a stud this year.  Manny will mash no matter where he is.  Phillips will give you a good balance of power and speed at a position lacking depth for both, but I am a little worried about the possible batting average drain.

After that, I think we have to go with Stephen Drew.  A heralded prospect in the minors, Drew 

took a big step forward in his second full year in the majors, hitting .291 with a .502 slugging 

percentage.  He'll be 26 when the season starts, right in the middle of his prime, so it's possible 

that he could take another small step forward.  Like Phillips, strikeouts are a concern, so Drew 

might have trouble hitting .291 again.

Though I don't like keeping pitchers, I think the level of talent that's left means we have to take 

John Lackey.  Lackey is a solid pitcher who will give you good strikeout rates and 13-14 wins.  

He's cut down on his walks the past two years, which should help keep his ERA and WHIP down. Expect better numbers than last year from a healthy John Lackey.

For the last spot, we have a few players to consider.  A possible candidate is Daisuke 

Matsuzaka; while he is a good pitcher, he walks way too many batters to be able to repeat last 

year's 2.90 ERA.  He does strikeout more batters than Lackey, but I think Lackey has the edge 

in ERA and WHIP this year.  I think Matsuzaka, or a pitcher like him, could be found through the draft.  I also like Adrian Beltre; he's been a very solid third baseman over the years, but I think he is someone who could also found in the middle rounds of the draft.  For this last pick, I think we have to go for prospects with upside.  Summer Fox picked up Colby Rasmus in the draft last year in hopes that he would be called up during the season, but injuries kept Rasmus down in the minors for the year.  Rasmus is still a talent, but it doesn't look like there's room for him to win a spot out of spring training.  He's draftable, but only as a late-round flier.  I think the choice here is Adam Jones.  This is a high-risk pick, but Jones has displayed the type of skills in the minor that could make him a fantasy stud for years to come.  I don't know that he will break out this year, but his upside is a 20/20 season this year if he can take that step forward.  10/20 seems more likely this year, but we'll be happy with that.

As always, let me know where I went wrong or right in the comments.

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Let's Look At Some Keepers - The Tossers

For those just joining us, this is a bit where I take a look at the other teams in my Yahoo H2H keeper league and state which seven players I think that they should start the 2009 season with. To the other owners in the league, I hope that this will serve to stoke your anticipation for the upcoming fantasy season.

Let's look at the Tossers' roster.

The Tossers

Casey Blake (LAD - 1B,3B,OF)

Travis Hafner (Cle - 1B)

Corey Hart (Mil - OF)

Eric Hinske (Pit - 1B,OF)

Torii Hunter (LAA - OF)

César Izturis (Bal - 3B,SS)

Conor Jackson (Ari - 1B,OF)

Casey Kotchman (Atl - 1B)

José López (Sea - 1B,2B)

Bengie Molina (SF - C)

Álex Rodríguez (NYY - 3B)

Nick Swisher (NYY - 1B,OF)

Mark Teahen (KC - 1B,3B,OF)

Michael Young (Tex - SS)

Jonathan Broxton (LAD - RP)

Francisco Cordero (Cin - RP)

Jorge De La Rosa (Col - SP,RP)

Jeremy Guthrie (Bal - SP,RP)

Hong-Chih Kuo (LAD - SP,RP)

Derek Lowe (Atl - SP)

John Maine (NYM - SP)

Hideki Okajima (Bos - RP)

Manny Parra (Mil - SP,RP)

Wandy Rodríguez (Hou - SP)

Takashi Saito (Bos - RP)

Joe Saunders (LAA - SP)

The Tossers finished last in the postseason, and, I have to be honest, looking at this roster doesn't give me great hope for their chances in 2009.  The Tossers do boast one of the best players in the game (all steroid admissions aside) with Alex Rodriguez, who is a no-brainer as a keeper.  After that, I think you have to keep Corey Hart and Torii Hunter for the combination of speed and power that they offer; both players have the ability to put up 20 HR and 20 SB when healthy.

After that, the next best guy is Michael Young who, despite having a declining OPS over the past few seasons still figures to be a top-10 shortstop.  If he does switch over to third base as the Rangers have asked him to do in order to make way for prospect Elvis Andrus, Young will gain a little more value due to the extra position eligibility.

We have three more spots to fill, so what's left on the roster?  We have a few players coming off bad seasons looking to bounce back, we have some decent closing options, and a couple pitchers that offer little in the way of strikeouts.  Setting aside the pitchers for now, I think we have to pass on former fantasy studs Nick Swisher and Travis Hafner.  I think it's unlikely that they ever rebound to the levels that they was produced at, especially Hafner, plus their poor showings in 2008 should make them available in the later rounds of the draft.  Jose Lopez and Bengie Molina, both decent values for their positions, should also be available in the middle to late rounds.  I think the best option here is Conor Jackson.  Jackson doesn't have the power that we would like from a first baseman, but he does hit for good average and he should get his fair share of RBI hitting in the middle of Arizona's order.  Jackson is in the middle of his prime (he'll be 27 in May) and it's always possible that he could have a career year in his fourth season in the league.

Normally I don't like keeping closers, preferring to pick them up later on in the draft, but I think we have to fill the last two keeper spots with the best values, and that would be Francisco Cordero and Jonathan Broxton.  Both closers give you good k/9 ratios, especially Broxton. Broxton has never been a full-time closer before, but he's had good success as the setup man for Takashi Saito, and he should pitch well in the 9th inning.  Cordero has been a fairly solid closer over the years, and he should be good for another 30 saves this year.

Let me know in the comments how wrong or right you think I am.  I'll be posting one of these for each of the owners in the league.

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Random Thoughts

- I just wanted to point out that since the Tossers lost 7 matchups in row earlier this season, they have gone 5-1-1 over their last 7 matchups, beating a few highly ranked teams. Good job, Troost.

- Self Indulgence got to play the role of playoff spoiler last week when they beat the Macafeys 9-0. The Macafeys were tied with the Balls for the final playoff spot prior to the matchup, now they have to dig themselves out of a 5-game hole. Tim's team was let down by poor pitching and by poor hitting from his infield, but mostly he got beat by a team having a good week. Incidentally, the Macafeys are sitting at .500 and I can't remember the last time that's happened this late in the season.

- Things that caught my eye as I looked at the waiver wire:
For anyone looking for help at catcher, Jesus Flores is catching full-time for the Nationals, and he's .304 with 9 RBI over the past week. He's been getting most of his at bats in the 5th spot, so their could be the chance for more RBI production if he keeps hitting, but that depends on people getting on base for him.
Dave Bush has had a few good outings mixed in with some poor ones, but he could be a good pitcher to pick up if the matchup is right. He's pitched much better at home than on the road this year, with a 3.30 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. That is a ridiculously small WHIP.
Speaking of home/away splits, Greg Maddux has been very good when pitching at Petco. His Batting Average Against is .228 at home compared to .326 on the road, and he has a WHIP of 1.00 at home. Pick your matchups with Maddux, and he'll serve you well.
For all the talk about how Mike Cameron would finally be out of pitchers parks, he's hitting better when playing away from Milwaukee. His OPS is .906 on the road versus .627 at home. He'll flirt with 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases, not bad for player who missed the first month of the season.

- I'd like to thank Raul Ibanez for his stellar play over the last few days; he has 15 RBI in his last four games, and he's the main reason I am beating the Butt Admirals in RBI this week.

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Manny Comes to the Dodgers

ESPN is reporting that Manny Ramirez will be a Dodger for the next two months.

Though the trade has yet to be officially announced, ESPN says that Manny goes to the Dodgers, the Dodgers send Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris to the Pirates, Boston sends Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen to the Pirates, and the Pirates send Jason Bay to Boston.

Seems like the Pirates got a pretty decent haul of prospects.

I honestly don't know whether to be excited or scared, but my first instinct is leaning towards fear.

Why did the Dodgers get another high-priced outfielder when we can't play all the ones that we already have? I assume that this means Andre Ethier will sit, and I can see them playing Andruw Jones over Juan Pierre now that they have Manny. With a slugger in the middle of the lineup, the Dodgers might feel that they can drop Jones in the order and continue to give him at bats without the pressure of producing runs.

It seems that their best outfield would be Manny, Ethier, and Matt Kemp, but it's hard to say how Jones and Pierre would fit in.

But why give up LaRoche for two months of Manny? I'm assuming it's going to be two months of Manny, since I can't imagine the team would give him the last big contract that he wants to end his career with. Actually, I can imagine Ned Colletti and Frank McCourt giving Manny $25 million a year in a misguided attempt to create headlines. But does he turn the Dodgers from a pretender to a contender?

Manny does not turn the Dodgers into a World Series contender. He gives the team a legitimate shot at winning the NL West, but the Dodgers still have too many injuries and offensive problems to seriously compete in the playoffs.

The Dodgers traded away their third baseman of the future after only giving him 152 at bats over the last two years. Less than a third of a season's worth of at bats is not nearly enough time to figure out what a player is worth, especially a prospect of LaRoche's caliber. The Dodgers weakened themselves for next year for some headlines and a chance to lose to the Phillies, Mets, or Cubs in the playoffs.

Thanks a lot.

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5 Weeks To Go

- We have five weeks left in the regular season before the playoffs starts; let's look at three teams fighting for a playoff spot.

Macafeys - 86-77-7 (tied for final playoff spot)
Balls - 84-75-11 (tied for final playoff spot)
Dinos - 77-84-9 (8 games out of final playoff spot)

With just five weeks to go, there isn't much time left to gain ground, but the Dinos do face the Macafeys once more before the season ends. With a strong showing against the Macafeys, the Dinos could pass them up for 7th place, just outside of a playoff spot. The Balls have the easiest schedule, with three matchups against teams out of contention.

The Balls and the Dinos just made a blockbuster trade, each time trying to fill a need as they head down the final stretch. The Balls traded Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, and Bobby Abreu for Ryan Howard, Chone Figgins, and Joe Nathan. The Balls are losing a lot on the offensive end, but they do gain back a premier slugger and an elite closer. With Joe Nathan, the Balls have upgraded their bullpen immensely, previously having to rely on Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman for saves. Even without Abreu, Pujols, and Cano, the Balls still have a formidable offense.

The Dinos have nearly gutted their bullpen, with Troy Percival as their only closer, but they have recharged their offense. Even when hurt, Pujols is still one of the best closers in the game, but the Dinos may have hurt themselves next year if Pujols has to miss most of the season because of surgery. Cano looks like he's shaken off his first-half slump, and he's now slugging .554 this month. Abreu gives the Dinos another decent bat in the outfield.

Will this trade help the Dinos overtake the Balls? Well they have more offense, and they should hit for better average, especially since they won't have to carry around Howard's .237 batting average. The Balls are a more well-rounded team with the addition of Figgins' speed and Nathan's saves. I think the trade was pretty even, but I'll say that it's not going to be enough to push the Dinos past the Balls.

- Taking a look at the trading block (which is a nice idea, but I wish Yahoo would make the presentation a little more user-friendly), the Dinos are offering up Corner Infielders and Outfielders for Starting Pitching. The Macafeys have Roy Halladay, Rich Harden, and Shaun Marcum on the trading block, and they are looking for HR and RBI. Let's see what could work for them, maybe J.D. Drew for Rich Harden or Carlos Beltran for Roy Halladay? I don't know, I'm just speculating.

- Carlos Guillen has more walks than strikeouts this month, and it's helping; he scored 12 runs last week and has 19 this month.

- Miguel Cabrera is going off this month; 13 RBI last week and 26 in July.

- Waiver Wire Watch: For those in need of a catcher, Ramon Hernandez has started to produce. He has an OPS of .814 so far in June and July.

For those looking for a pitcher, Bronson Arroyo has a WHIP of 1.12 in his last 33 innings.

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First Half MVP's and Cy Young Winners

Since it's halfway through the season, I thought I'd take a brief look at each team in my Yahoo fantasy league and see who their MVP and Cy Young winners are for the first half. I tried to avoid picking players that were picked up after the first month or who spent significant time on the DL. Teams are listed in order of their record, and the runners-up are listed in parentheses. I won't be providing any commentary on my picks, but feel free to let where I got things right or wrong in the comments.


1. Adrian's Revenge (79-46-5)
MVP - Carlos Lee (Brian McCann)
CY - Kerry Wood (Ervin Santana)

2. Screaming Lemurs (72-50-8)
MVP - Ian Kinsler (Ryan Braun)
CY - Cole Hamels (Brandon Webb)

3. The Balls (70-54-6)
MVP - Hanley Ramirez (Adrian Gonzalez)
CY- Mariano Rivera (Edinson Volquez)

4. Val Kilmer's Asshole (70-55-5)
MVP - Lance Berkman (Josh Hamilton)
CY - Jonathan Papelbon (Scott Kazmir)

5. Naterade (71-57-2)
MVP - Justin Morneau (Kevin Youkilis)
CY - Francisco Rodriguez (Felix Hernandez)

6. Butt Admirals (65-53-12)
MVP - Grady Sizemore (Nate McLouth)
CY - Dan Haren (Josh Beckett)

7. Macafeys (68-58-4)
MVP - Derek Lee (David Wright)
CY - Roy Halladay (Shaun Marcum)

8. Dinos (62-62-6)
MVP - Chase Utley (Carlos Beltran)
CY - Tim Lincecum (Cliff Lee)

9. Dissect Yourself (48-71-11)
MVP - Dan Uggla (Matt Holliday)
CY - Carlos Marmol (C.C. Sabathia)

10. Summer Fox (49-76-5)
MVP - Brandon Phillips (Jason Bay)
CY - John Lackey (Billy Wagner)

11. Tossers (45-78-7)
MVP - Alex Rodriguez (Corey Hart)
CY - Joe Saunders (Takashi Saito)

12. Self Indulgence (42-81-7)
MVP - Chipper Jones (Mark Reynolds)
CY - Johan Santana (Jose Valverde)

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