Once More, Keepers - Self Indulgence

Time to do another one.  Let’s look at the possible keepers for Self Indulgence, who will be known this year as Orc Mischief.  Here’s the roster.

Self Indulgence 

Orlando Cabrera (CWS - SS)

Johnny Damon (NYY - OF)  

Andre Ethier (LAD - OF)      

Ken Griffey Jr. (CWS - OF)  

Carlos Guillén (Det - 1B,3B,SS)       

Jerry Hairston Jr. (Cin - 2B,3B,SS,OF)         

Aubrey Huff (Bal - 1B,3B)   

Derek Jeter (NYY - SS)         

Chipper Jones (Atl - 3B)        

Matt Kemp (LAD - OF)        

Jeff Kent (LAD - 2B)

Hideki Matsui (NYY - OF)   

Joe Mauer (Min - C)   

Carlos Peña (TB - 1B)

Mark Reynolds (Ari - 3B)      

Denard Span (Min - OF)        

Jose Arredondo (LAA - RP) 

Aaron Cook (Col - SP)          

Brian Fuentes (LAA - RP)     

Brandon Lyon (Det - RP)      

Gil Meche (KC - SP) 

Johan Santana (NYM - SP)   

Scot Shields (LAA - RP)       

Andy Sonnanstine (TB - SP) 

José Valverde (Hou - RP)      

Chien-Ming Wang (NYY - SP)         

Carlos Zambrano (ChC - SP) 

Here are three no-brainers, but I call them no-brainers for three different reasons.  Johan Santana is a no-brainer because he’s been arguably this best pitcher in the major leagues since he became a full-time starter in 2004.  The man is consistent, and I think we can expect another stellar season from him. 

Matt Kemp is a no-brainer, not because he’s a fantasy stud, but because he could be a fantasy stud for many years to come, starting with this one.  I think the power will come, and we could be seeing a 30/30 season from him in the next few years. 

Joe Mauer is a no-brainer because he is one of the best hitters, not just at his position, but in the entire league.  He won’t hit for power like Brian McCann, and he won’t run like Russell Martin, but he does hit for average.  He’s entering his prime, so be ready for a good season, barring injury.

After those three, we have Chipper Jones, a third baseman who has had more than 500 at bats in a season once since 2003, but who is really good when he plays.  Despite his age and his injury history, I think Jones is one to keep on this team as long as you expect him to miss a quarter of the season.  His main calling card these days is his ability to get on base, which he does by being selective and making contact.  Enjoy it if he reaches 500 at bats, because you could have really good value for him if he does.

Derek Jeter is definitely starting to fade, but I think we can expect one more season of double digit HR and SB with a BA near .300.  He can be overrated in drafts, but he’s fine as a keeper for this team. 

Carlos Pena has hit 77 HR over the past two seasons after struggling to find playing time the two years prior.  I don’t think he’ll hit 40 HR again, but between 30 and 35 is reasonable to expect.  I also don’t think that we can expect him to repeat his .282 BA from 2007; his .247 average from last year is more in line with his career stats.

For the last spot, I think we have to pick another fading Yankee, Johnny Damon.  Damon had one of his stronger seasons last year, but at the age of 35, I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to continue performing at that level.  I still think he’ll provide good value this year, but it seems likely that his SB will drop closer to 20.  I’d take the under on him hitting 15 HR this year as well.

Some quick thoughts on the players I passed up on: Andre Ethier could take another step forward this year, but he’ll be available later in the drafts.  Aubrey Huff showed some great power last year, but I think his draft-day value will be suppressed as people wonder if he can repeat it.  I think he can repeat, but he should be relatively cheap on draft day.  I don’t like Carlos Zambrano this year at all, as his k/9 has been trending downward the past few years, and the high number of innings pitched in his career may be catching up with him.  I’d take him if he fell to the middle rounds, but I think he’ll go too high based on his name value.

I think this team has some interesting pieces for next year and a good mix of power and speed, but I think they'll need to get a little younger if they want to be competitive over the next couple of years.  Let me know what you think.

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More and More Keepers - Val Kilmer's A**hole

Let’s take a look at the next team in our league, Val Kilmer’s A**hole, now known as Order of the Phoenix (Mark likes to change his team names a lot).  They have a good mix of talent, but a couple of these fantasy studs are starting to see the far side of their careers.  Let’s look at the roster.

Val Kilmer's A**hole

Lance Berkman (Hou - 1B,OF)         

Michael Cuddyer (Min - OF) 

David DeJesús (KC - OF)     

Mark Ellis (Oak - 2B)

Jason Giambi (Oak - 1B)       

Troy Glaus (StL - 3B)

Josh Hamilton (Tex - OF)      

Jeremy Hermida (Fla - OF)    

Mike Napoli (LAA - C)         

David Ortiz (Bos - 1B)          

José Reyes (NYM - SS)         

Scott Rolen (Tor - 3B)           

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tex - C,1B)   

Freddy Sánchez (Pit - 2B)     

Vernon Wells (Tor - OF)        

Joe Blanton (Phi - SP)

A.J. Burnett (NYY - SP)       

Matt Cain (SF - SP)   

Ryan Dempster (ChC - SP,RP)         

Jeff Francis (Col - SP)           

J.P. Howell (TB - SP,RP)      

Scott Kazmir (TB - SP)          

Jonathan Papelbon (Bos - RP)           

B.J. Ryan (Tor - RP)  

Huston Street (Col - RP)       

Justin Verlander (Det - SP)    

The no-brainer picks here are Jose Reyes, Lance Berkman, and Josh Hamilton.  These guys are studs, and all three usually go in the first two or three rounds of a draft.  Reyes is one of the top-five players in fantasy baseball because of his success on the base paths; he’s averaged 64 SB along with 113 Runs the past four years.  Reyes will even give you double-digit HR for good measure, with some possible room for growth as he matures into his prime.  Even with a possible lineup move out of the leadoff spot, Reyes is the type of young star you can build a team around.

Though he’s not young anymore, Berkman is another type of star that you love to have on your team.  He shows consistent power, a career BA of .302, and he’ll even steal a base or two (though I don’t think anyone of us expect a repeat performance of his career-high 18 SB last year).

Josh Hamilton has had a superb season and a half in the big leagues now, and I think it’s all right to expect him to continue to rake this year as well.  He carries a little more risk than the other two players I’ve talked about, but he could have just as much talent. 

If these three players are no-brainers, let’s call the next two players Guys-you’d-want-but-have-to-take-a-second-to-think-about.  They are David Ortiz and Vernon Wells, and the reason that you’d want them is because of what they’ve been able to produce, and the reason you’d think for a second about taking them is that they are probably not those players any more.  Ortiz missed time last year with a wrist injury, and though it seems to be fully healed, can we expect him to be the Big Papi of old?  I think Ortiz will be fine next year, with an OPS around .900, though I do think he will miss having Manny Ramirez in the lineup.  Wells also missed time last year and the year before due to injury, though he did hit well in 2008 when he played.  I don’t think we can expect Wells to run like he did in 2007 and 2006, but I think he can be a top-25 OF if he stays healthy.  

Let’s hear the familiar refrain: “I don’t like to keep pitchers.”  But looking at the players we have left, there’s not much keeping me from doing that.  Jonathan Papelbon was a top-five closer last year, and there’s little reason to think he won’t repeat that.  He lowered his walks drastically while setting a career-high in innings pitched, and he struck out 10 batters per nine innings.  Papelbon is good value here.

I’m not big on this last player, but who else could we keep?  Jason Giambi, Scott Rolen, and Troy Glaus are all former stars, but they’re all old and dealing with injuries.  Mike Napoli is a catcher I like for this year, but only because he’s being underrated in the drafts.  A.J. Burnett is talented but inconsistent.  So let’s go with Scott Kazmir, who is also inconsistent and misses a few starts each year, but has more talent than Burnett.  Kazmir will most likely miss a few starts this year, but he gives you an elite K/9 and he plays for a good offense.  Just be wary of a late season collapse like last year’s.

So how’d I do?  Let me know what you think in the comments.

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Even More Keepers - Butt Admirals

Time to take a look at possible keepers for the Butt Admirals.  The Admirals finished in 10th place last year, so let's see how good their chances look heading into the draft.  For those wondering what I'm talking about, check out some of the previous keepers posts to find out.  Here's the roster.

Butt Admirals

Carlos Delgado (NYM - 1B) 

Edwin Encarnacion (Cin - 3B)          

Prince Fielder (Mil - 1B)        

Kosuke Fukudome (ChC - OF)         

Vladimir Guerrero (LAA - OF)         

J.J. Hardy (Mil - SS)  

Nate McLouth (Pit - OF)       

Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B)     

Kelly Shoppach (Cle - C)       

Grady Sizemore (Cle - OF)    

Fernando Tatis (NYM - CI,OF)        

Willy Taveras (Cin - OF)       

Marcus Thames (Det - 1B,OF)          

Ryan Theriot (ChC - 2B,SS)  

Joey Votto (Cin - 1B,OF)      

Rickie Weeks (Mil - 2B)        

Scott Baker (Min - SP)          

Josh Beckett (Bos - SP)         

Jorge Campillo (Atl - SP,RP) 

Dan Haren (Ari - SP) 

Bobby Jenks (CWS - RP)      

Ubaldo Jimenez (Col - SP)    

Scott Olsen (Was - SP)          

Mike Pelfrey (NYM - SP)      

Joakim Soria (KC - RP)    

     

The obvious picks are Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore, and Dustin Pedroia.  Sizemore is a legit first-rounder entering his prime who has averaged 26 HR, 28 SB, and 116 Runs over the last four years.  He does tend to strikeout often, hurting his batting average, but his upside for 2009 is a consecutive 30/30 season.  Fielder will mash; I don’t think he’ll hit 50 HR this year, but I think 40 are definitely in reach.  Pedroia, the reigning AL MVP, will be overrated in drafts this year, but he does have value at a shallow position.  Pedroia will always hit for average, but I’m not sure that he’ll repeat his 17 HR from last year.  I’m thinking a more conservative estimate might be 15 HR, 18 SB, with a batting average around .320.  The Admirals will be happy with anything more than that.

3 spots down, 4 to go.  I think that Joey Votto has to be a keeper on this team.  He had a strong minor-league career, he raked in his first pro season, and he’s only 25.  He may regress this year, but the Admirals should keep him with an eye towards the next six years.

If you’ve read my previous posts, then you know how I feel about pitchers.  Nevertheless, Dan Haren was a top-ten starter last year, and he has the talent to repeat.  Some encouraging signs to note: Haren was able to cut down on his walks and raise his strikeouts last year, leading to a ridiculous 5.15 K/BB ratio.  Even if he regresses a bit, Haren will still be an elite pitcher.

I liked Nate McLouth a lot going into 2008, but I like him less for this year.  Funny the difference a year makes.  McLouth still provides good value, but I think last year’s numbers represent a ceiling for him.  McLouth had some inconsistent months last year, and I think that will continue to be the case for him.  I say bank on another 20/20 season with serviceable batting average, and be thankful for anything else he gives you. 

For the last spot, I’m going to dismiss the rest of the pitchers.  Joakim Soria is an elite closer who tends to be underrated because of his team, but while I don’t like to keep pitchers, I never like to keep closers.  Even elite closers can turn into pumpkins, so it’s better to go with a bit safer pick.  Josh Beckett has a lot of talent, but he does tend to spend some time on the DL each year.  When he’s healthy, he can be a top-ten pitcher, but it’s better to stay away from pitchers with an extensive injury history if possible.  J.J. Hardy has shown good pop at shortstop the past two years, but it’s his streakiness that concerns me.  Last year he had three months where he was bad to average, and three months where he was very good.  In mock drafts, I’ve been seeing him go in the middle rounds to fill the MI roster spot; he could put a very good year together this year, but it might be better to wait and pick him up in the draft.

I can see an argument for keeping Hardy, but I’m going the opposite direction and recommending that the Admirals keep a player with a lot of miles on him but who should have one more good year left.  That’s right, I’m going with Vladimir Guerrero.  Vlad is not the five-tool, 40/40 threat (or even the 30/15 threat) he once was, but I think he’s got one more top-20 outfield season in him.  What gives me hope is that with the Bobby Abreu signing, the Angels have more outfielders than they know what to do with, enabling them to give Guerrero a lot of starts at DH.  Hopefully limiting his time in the field will limit the amount of time he spends on the DL this year.  If he can get 550-600 at bats, then put him down for another 30 HR season.

Once again, feel free to let me know how smart or dumb I am in the comments.

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More Keepers - Summer Fox

Let's take a look at the possible keepers for the Summer Fox.  For those who remember from the last post, I'll be looking at which seven players I think each owner in our Yahoo H2H league should keep for the upcoming season.  Here's the roster for the Summer Fox.

Summer Fox

Jason Bay (Bos - OF) 

Adrián Béltre (Sea - 3B) 

Stephen Drew (Ari - SS) 

Yunel Escobar (Atl - 2B,3B,SS) 

José Guillén (KC - OF) 

Todd Helton (Col - 1B) 

Akinori Iwamura (TB - 2B,3B) 

Kenji Johjima (Sea - C)  

Adam Jones (Bal - OF)  

Paul Konerko (CWS - 1B)  

Jason Kubel (Min - OF)  

Brandon Phillips (Cin - 2B) 

Manny Ramírez (LAD - OF) 

Colby Rasmus (StL - OF) 

Aaron Rowand (SF - OF) 

Skip Schumaker (StL - OF) 

Ichiro Suzuki (Sea - OF) 

Mark Buehrle (CWS - SP) 

Fausto Carmona (Cle - SP) 

Randy Johnson (SF - SP) 

Hiroki Kuroda (LAD - SP) 

John Lackey (LAA - SP) 

Justin Masterson (Bos - SP,RP) 

Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos - SP) 

Greg Smith (Col - SP) 

Billy Wagner (NYM - RP) 

First off, we have some no-brainer picks: Ichiro, Manny Ramirez, Brandon Phillips, and Jason Bay.  On average, these guys are being taken before the fourth round.  I don't think Jason Bay will revert to his 2007 season form, but I don't expect him to improve on last year's numbers.  Ichiro is getting older - he posted his lowest OPS total since he's been in the U.S. last year - but he can still run and help your batting average.  He should still be a stud this year.  Manny will mash no matter where he is.  Phillips will give you a good balance of power and speed at a position lacking depth for both, but I am a little worried about the possible batting average drain.

After that, I think we have to go with Stephen Drew.  A heralded prospect in the minors, Drew 

took a big step forward in his second full year in the majors, hitting .291 with a .502 slugging 

percentage.  He'll be 26 when the season starts, right in the middle of his prime, so it's possible 

that he could take another small step forward.  Like Phillips, strikeouts are a concern, so Drew 

might have trouble hitting .291 again.

Though I don't like keeping pitchers, I think the level of talent that's left means we have to take 

John Lackey.  Lackey is a solid pitcher who will give you good strikeout rates and 13-14 wins.  

He's cut down on his walks the past two years, which should help keep his ERA and WHIP down. Expect better numbers than last year from a healthy John Lackey.

For the last spot, we have a few players to consider.  A possible candidate is Daisuke 

Matsuzaka; while he is a good pitcher, he walks way too many batters to be able to repeat last 

year's 2.90 ERA.  He does strikeout more batters than Lackey, but I think Lackey has the edge 

in ERA and WHIP this year.  I think Matsuzaka, or a pitcher like him, could be found through the draft.  I also like Adrian Beltre; he's been a very solid third baseman over the years, but I think he is someone who could also found in the middle rounds of the draft.  For this last pick, I think we have to go for prospects with upside.  Summer Fox picked up Colby Rasmus in the draft last year in hopes that he would be called up during the season, but injuries kept Rasmus down in the minors for the year.  Rasmus is still a talent, but it doesn't look like there's room for him to win a spot out of spring training.  He's draftable, but only as a late-round flier.  I think the choice here is Adam Jones.  This is a high-risk pick, but Jones has displayed the type of skills in the minor that could make him a fantasy stud for years to come.  I don't know that he will break out this year, but his upside is a 20/20 season this year if he can take that step forward.  10/20 seems more likely this year, but we'll be happy with that.

As always, let me know where I went wrong or right in the comments.

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Let's Look At Some Keepers - The Tossers

For those just joining us, this is a bit where I take a look at the other teams in my Yahoo H2H keeper league and state which seven players I think that they should start the 2009 season with. To the other owners in the league, I hope that this will serve to stoke your anticipation for the upcoming fantasy season.

Let's look at the Tossers' roster.

The Tossers

Casey Blake (LAD - 1B,3B,OF)

Travis Hafner (Cle - 1B)

Corey Hart (Mil - OF)

Eric Hinske (Pit - 1B,OF)

Torii Hunter (LAA - OF)

César Izturis (Bal - 3B,SS)

Conor Jackson (Ari - 1B,OF)

Casey Kotchman (Atl - 1B)

José López (Sea - 1B,2B)

Bengie Molina (SF - C)

Álex Rodríguez (NYY - 3B)

Nick Swisher (NYY - 1B,OF)

Mark Teahen (KC - 1B,3B,OF)

Michael Young (Tex - SS)

Jonathan Broxton (LAD - RP)

Francisco Cordero (Cin - RP)

Jorge De La Rosa (Col - SP,RP)

Jeremy Guthrie (Bal - SP,RP)

Hong-Chih Kuo (LAD - SP,RP)

Derek Lowe (Atl - SP)

John Maine (NYM - SP)

Hideki Okajima (Bos - RP)

Manny Parra (Mil - SP,RP)

Wandy Rodríguez (Hou - SP)

Takashi Saito (Bos - RP)

Joe Saunders (LAA - SP)

The Tossers finished last in the postseason, and, I have to be honest, looking at this roster doesn't give me great hope for their chances in 2009.  The Tossers do boast one of the best players in the game (all steroid admissions aside) with Alex Rodriguez, who is a no-brainer as a keeper.  After that, I think you have to keep Corey Hart and Torii Hunter for the combination of speed and power that they offer; both players have the ability to put up 20 HR and 20 SB when healthy.

After that, the next best guy is Michael Young who, despite having a declining OPS over the past few seasons still figures to be a top-10 shortstop.  If he does switch over to third base as the Rangers have asked him to do in order to make way for prospect Elvis Andrus, Young will gain a little more value due to the extra position eligibility.

We have three more spots to fill, so what's left on the roster?  We have a few players coming off bad seasons looking to bounce back, we have some decent closing options, and a couple pitchers that offer little in the way of strikeouts.  Setting aside the pitchers for now, I think we have to pass on former fantasy studs Nick Swisher and Travis Hafner.  I think it's unlikely that they ever rebound to the levels that they was produced at, especially Hafner, plus their poor showings in 2008 should make them available in the later rounds of the draft.  Jose Lopez and Bengie Molina, both decent values for their positions, should also be available in the middle to late rounds.  I think the best option here is Conor Jackson.  Jackson doesn't have the power that we would like from a first baseman, but he does hit for good average and he should get his fair share of RBI hitting in the middle of Arizona's order.  Jackson is in the middle of his prime (he'll be 27 in May) and it's always possible that he could have a career year in his fourth season in the league.

Normally I don't like keeping closers, preferring to pick them up later on in the draft, but I think we have to fill the last two keeper spots with the best values, and that would be Francisco Cordero and Jonathan Broxton.  Both closers give you good k/9 ratios, especially Broxton. Broxton has never been a full-time closer before, but he's had good success as the setup man for Takashi Saito, and he should pitch well in the 9th inning.  Cordero has been a fairly solid closer over the years, and he should be good for another 30 saves this year.

Let me know in the comments how wrong or right you think I am.  I'll be posting one of these for each of the owners in the league.

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Random Thoughts

- I just wanted to point out that since the Tossers lost 7 matchups in row earlier this season, they have gone 5-1-1 over their last 7 matchups, beating a few highly ranked teams. Good job, Troost.

- Self Indulgence got to play the role of playoff spoiler last week when they beat the Macafeys 9-0. The Macafeys were tied with the Balls for the final playoff spot prior to the matchup, now they have to dig themselves out of a 5-game hole. Tim's team was let down by poor pitching and by poor hitting from his infield, but mostly he got beat by a team having a good week. Incidentally, the Macafeys are sitting at .500 and I can't remember the last time that's happened this late in the season.

- Things that caught my eye as I looked at the waiver wire:
For anyone looking for help at catcher, Jesus Flores is catching full-time for the Nationals, and he's .304 with 9 RBI over the past week. He's been getting most of his at bats in the 5th spot, so their could be the chance for more RBI production if he keeps hitting, but that depends on people getting on base for him.
Dave Bush has had a few good outings mixed in with some poor ones, but he could be a good pitcher to pick up if the matchup is right. He's pitched much better at home than on the road this year, with a 3.30 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. That is a ridiculously small WHIP.
Speaking of home/away splits, Greg Maddux has been very good when pitching at Petco. His Batting Average Against is .228 at home compared to .326 on the road, and he has a WHIP of 1.00 at home. Pick your matchups with Maddux, and he'll serve you well.
For all the talk about how Mike Cameron would finally be out of pitchers parks, he's hitting better when playing away from Milwaukee. His OPS is .906 on the road versus .627 at home. He'll flirt with 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases, not bad for player who missed the first month of the season.

- I'd like to thank Raul Ibanez for his stellar play over the last few days; he has 15 RBI in his last four games, and he's the main reason I am beating the Butt Admirals in RBI this week.

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Manny Comes to the Dodgers

ESPN is reporting that Manny Ramirez will be a Dodger for the next two months.

Though the trade has yet to be officially announced, ESPN says that Manny goes to the Dodgers, the Dodgers send Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris to the Pirates, Boston sends Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen to the Pirates, and the Pirates send Jason Bay to Boston.

Seems like the Pirates got a pretty decent haul of prospects.

I honestly don't know whether to be excited or scared, but my first instinct is leaning towards fear.

Why did the Dodgers get another high-priced outfielder when we can't play all the ones that we already have? I assume that this means Andre Ethier will sit, and I can see them playing Andruw Jones over Juan Pierre now that they have Manny. With a slugger in the middle of the lineup, the Dodgers might feel that they can drop Jones in the order and continue to give him at bats without the pressure of producing runs.

It seems that their best outfield would be Manny, Ethier, and Matt Kemp, but it's hard to say how Jones and Pierre would fit in.

But why give up LaRoche for two months of Manny? I'm assuming it's going to be two months of Manny, since I can't imagine the team would give him the last big contract that he wants to end his career with. Actually, I can imagine Ned Colletti and Frank McCourt giving Manny $25 million a year in a misguided attempt to create headlines. But does he turn the Dodgers from a pretender to a contender?

Manny does not turn the Dodgers into a World Series contender. He gives the team a legitimate shot at winning the NL West, but the Dodgers still have too many injuries and offensive problems to seriously compete in the playoffs.

The Dodgers traded away their third baseman of the future after only giving him 152 at bats over the last two years. Less than a third of a season's worth of at bats is not nearly enough time to figure out what a player is worth, especially a prospect of LaRoche's caliber. The Dodgers weakened themselves for next year for some headlines and a chance to lose to the Phillies, Mets, or Cubs in the playoffs.

Thanks a lot.

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