Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Better Keeper: Carlos Pena or Garrett Atkins

I was talking to John Brubaker the other day, and the topic turned towards our keepers. Both of us are trying to decide on who our seven keepers will be for our twelve team 5x5 category league. John's dilemma was deciding whether Carlos Pena's upside in power was enough to make him more attractive as a keeper than Garrett Atkins.

Let's take a look the pros and cons to both players.

Garret Atkins
Pros: He hits for average, maintaining a .306 batting average over his three full seasons in the majors. He has good lefty/righty splits, and he has a solid walk rate. He's fairly young and could improve on his power. He plays at a great hitter's park.
Cons: His numbers are much poorer away from Coors. His OPS on the road is .163 less than at home, and his batting average is .095 worse when he's away. His unappealing away stats could leave him susceptible to cold streaks. He hasn't shown that he can be a consistent power hitter.

Carlos Pena
Pros: He hit for a ton of power, hitting 46 home runs to go with a .627 slugging percentage, which was second only to Alex Rodriguez. He can get on base through walks, with the fifth best walk rate in the league. His lefty/righty and home/away splits are bearable.
Cons: He's two years older than Atkins, and he's already been given up on by four teams. Even though he walks a lot, he strikes out a lot as well, enough for tenth most in the league. His high strikeout totals might not affect his power production, but they could easily affect his batting average. His .282 average might be a fluke, as it's thirty points above his career average. According to ESPN's Inside Edge, Pena has more holes at the plate than Atkins.

Thoughts
Atkins might have more value than Pena next year purely because of his age, which allows him a bit more upside than Pena. Atkins is a safer risk than Pena, as it is much more likely that Pena fails to repeat his 2007 numbers in 2008 than it is for Atkins. In 2007, third base was a less productive source for power than first; only four third basemen hit 30 or more home runs compared to nine first basemen. Atkins does have the ability to hit thirty home runs, and he has already proven that he can hit for average. Pena has less of a track record than Atkins, so it's hard to predict what he might do next year.

Conclusion
This is one of those decisions could very well end up leaving you kicking yourself in July, but I think Atkins' age, track record, and position scarcity makes him a better keeper pick than Pena. It seems very unlikely that Pena will come close to replicating last year's numbers, and he could end just a poor man's Paul Konerko, which isn't bad value, but it doesn't necessarily make him keeper worthy. Also, since John has Adrian Gonzalez on his roster as well, Pena might be expendable. A close edge to Garrett Atkins.

Questions/Thoughts/Pithy Sayings?

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Monday, October 1, 2007

Centerfielders Revisited

Before I finish up my look at the bottom half of our list of National League centerfielders, I'd like to take a moment to congratulate Nate (Naterade) Swanson on winning our Yahoo fantasy league's 2007 championship. Nate finished second in the regular season standings, and eventually beat Tim Ledoux's Macafeys in a final between the top two teams of the regular season. Nate's lineup was not the strongest, but he was always consistent, only losing by more than one category twice over the season's course. My hat is off to you, Naterade.

Here we are back to the list. The first part can be found here.

Alfredo Amezaga's main value to the Florida Marlins is his defense. He has a strong range factor and a good zone rating, and he while he does provide some speed on the basepaths -- he has 33 stolen bases over the last two seasons -- his success rate is only 63%. (The league average was 74%.) Amezaga posted a career best .682 OPS this year, but he profiles best as a defensive utilityman. The Marlins would rather have started Alejandro De Aza in centerfield this year, but injuries allowed Amezaga to get the majority of playing time.

Mike Cameron's batting average and slugging percentage were well below last year's marks, but he had almost as many home runs and doubles. Both his range factor and his zone rating were also down from last year. Cameron's batting average is the only major detraction to his fantasy value; he needs to hit .260 or better and cut down on his strikeouts in order to be more than a 4th outfielder. An increase in plate selectivity, coupled with his talent for power and speed, would make Cameron a great value for next season.

Bill Hall was a major disappointment to many fantasy owners this year, including myself. Yahoo rated him 93rd among all players at the beginning of the season, and somehow he managed to end up 706th. I didn't expect him to hit 35 homers again this year, but 25 seemed manageable, which is eleven more than he ended up hitting. Hall's slugging percentage was 42 points below his career average, and his four stolen bases were the least he's ever had in a full season. Primarily an infielder, Hall was moved to centerfield this year to make room for Rickie Weeks. His defense has been unremarkable at best, and it is unclear what the Brewers plan to do with him, as he lost time down the stretch to Corey Hart. Hall's value for next year depends on his playing time and his ability to rebound at the plate.

The Washington Nationals started a variety of players at centerfield, but Nook Logan received the majority of the starts there. Logan has little power and a poor on-base percentage, but he is fast, stealing 23 bases in 118 games. Logan is very good defensively, but unless he improves his ability to reach base, he has little value as a starter. The Nationals acquired Wily Mo Pena near the trading deadline, and it seems they would like to start him in right next year and move Austin Kearns to center. Logan should only be on fantasy radars if it appears the Nationals will be giving him playing time, and only those looking for stolen bases shoud be interested.

Baseball America ranked Nate McLouth the Pirates' 10th best prospect in 2005, citing his contact ability and speed as positives. McLouth improved on his offensive numbers from last year, with very large increases in slugging and on-base percentages. He was an underrated source for stolen bases this year, stealing 22 out of 23 attempts. If he gets a full season of playing time, McLouth could be considered a sleeper candidate for a 20 homerun/20 stolen base season in the near future. That is a large if, as the Pirates also gave a lot of playing time in centerfield to Chris Duffy and Nyjer Morgan this year. McLouth is still relatively young, so he is definitely one to watch in larger leagues.

Willy Taveras missed significant portions of August and September due to a strained right groin, ruining his chances at his first 40 stolen base season. He set career highs in batting average, and on-base and slugging percentages. Injuries and poor marks on defense keep him from being higher on this list. Good thing fantasy doesn't count defense; a healthy Taveras is definitely one to watch for next year.

Injuries were also a big factor for the Cardinals' Jim Edmonds, who spent the offseason recovering from toe and shoulder surgeries. Edmonds only started 99 games in center due to injuries, and his production was down for the second year in a row. With his defensive and offensive production slipping, Edmonds stellar career appears close to being over. Do not draft Edmonds next year.

Dave Roberts had his fifth season of 30 stolen bases or more, despite platooning with Rajai Davis for part of the season, so Roberts still has value despite being on the downside of his career. His OPS was his lowest in five years. Given the right opportunity, Roberts is a good source of stolen bases, but it might not be with the Giants as they appear ready to give Rajai Davis, whom they acquired from Pirates this year, a shot at the starting centerfield job. With the Barry Bonds era over in San Francisco, the Giants will probably try to go younger, and Roberts will most likely not fit in their plans.

Well, that's the list. I started this list back on August 20th, with more than a month left in the season to play, so this authority of this list is definitely debateable. Players have done their best and worst to move up and down, and this list is far from definitive. So please, let me know where I got it wrong, or if you're so disposed, where I got it right.

Next thing I'll probably write about will be a look back at my Yahoo fantasy league, and we'll discuss why my inability to stick with a focused strategy enabled me to run my team into the losers' bracket for the second year in a row.

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