Random Thoughts

- I just wanted to point out that since the Tossers lost 7 matchups in row earlier this season, they have gone 5-1-1 over their last 7 matchups, beating a few highly ranked teams. Good job, Troost.

- Self Indulgence got to play the role of playoff spoiler last week when they beat the Macafeys 9-0. The Macafeys were tied with the Balls for the final playoff spot prior to the matchup, now they have to dig themselves out of a 5-game hole. Tim's team was let down by poor pitching and by poor hitting from his infield, but mostly he got beat by a team having a good week. Incidentally, the Macafeys are sitting at .500 and I can't remember the last time that's happened this late in the season.

- Things that caught my eye as I looked at the waiver wire:
For anyone looking for help at catcher, Jesus Flores is catching full-time for the Nationals, and he's .304 with 9 RBI over the past week. He's been getting most of his at bats in the 5th spot, so their could be the chance for more RBI production if he keeps hitting, but that depends on people getting on base for him.
Dave Bush has had a few good outings mixed in with some poor ones, but he could be a good pitcher to pick up if the matchup is right. He's pitched much better at home than on the road this year, with a 3.30 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. That is a ridiculously small WHIP.
Speaking of home/away splits, Greg Maddux has been very good when pitching at Petco. His Batting Average Against is .228 at home compared to .326 on the road, and he has a WHIP of 1.00 at home. Pick your matchups with Maddux, and he'll serve you well.
For all the talk about how Mike Cameron would finally be out of pitchers parks, he's hitting better when playing away from Milwaukee. His OPS is .906 on the road versus .627 at home. He'll flirt with 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases, not bad for player who missed the first month of the season.

- I'd like to thank Raul Ibanez for his stellar play over the last few days; he has 15 RBI in his last four games, and he's the main reason I am beating the Butt Admirals in RBI this week.

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Flapjacks Fantasy Transactions

Here's another look at some of the recent transactions in my Yahoo keeper league.

1.  Macafeys (Tim) drop Tim Wakefield and pick up Jason Varitek, then drops Varitek and picks up Asdrubal Cabrera.

I assume that this was done to take advantage of the two games that Boston plays this week, as Tim already has a decent, if raw option at catcher in Geovany Soto.

I don't know how much this will affect Wakefield's season, but Doug Mirabelli, Wakefield's personal catcher, was waived by the Red Sox.  Boston's catchers had problems catching Wakefield's knuckle ball last year, enough so that Boston was forced to trade for Mirabelli back from the Padres.  Wakefield has always managed to win games, but I think it's more likely that he continues to regress this year due to age.

Cabrera is a young second baseman with some upside upside.  He hit .310 in AA last year with an .837 OPS, then hit .283 in the majors after being called up in August.  He'll likely need another year or two before developing into a top ten 2B, but he does give Tim a decent option at MI in case Bobby Crosby is injured. 

2. The Balls (Bru) drop Carlos Quentin for Edison Volquez.

I like Volquez, but I'm not certain that Bru needed another pitcher, having already rostered six on his squad.  Maybe he wasn't completely confident in the abilities of Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez to pitch a full season.  

Quentin has talent and should get his share of at bats in the White Sox's outfield, but I don't think he's ready to be a solid contributor this year.  

This is a good pickup for the fact that Volquez has upside and Quentin was expendable, but I think Bru needs to improve his offense, especially since Cameron Maybin was just sent down.

3.  Tossers (Troost) picks up Jason Bartlett.

Since Kaz Matsui will miss the first couple weeks of the season with anal fissures, Troost needed to pickup a MI.  Bartlett stole 23 bases last year with the Twins, and with his move to the Rays, a team with a more aggressive base path philosophy, Bartlett should better those numbers.  The Rays will get twelve games against the Yankees and the Orioles in the first two weeks of the season, two teams with catchers that do not do a good job of limiting base stealers. Bartlett should have a few SB in during those series.

4.  Naterade (Nate) drops Josh Fields and picks up Andre Ethier.

Fields has been demoted to the minors, but he'll be back up this year, and he could provide great value as a keeper.  Fields has great power, but a poor batting average; if he can run like he did in AAA in 2006 when he stole 26 bases, he'll be a poor man's Ryan Braun.

Ethier has been one of the Dodgers' best players this spring, hitting .340 with 5 HR in 50 AB's. He could improve on his HR totals if he can beat out Juan Pierre for playing time in left field. Ethier could be a very good 5th outfielder, and he should provide Nate a decent option if Justin Upton or Adam Jones struggles to begin the year.  I like Ethier and I think he'll improve on his numbers from the last two seasons.

The only problem is that Nate is now severely lacking in corner infielders, with only Kevin Youkilis guaranteed playing time.  Time to hit the waiver wire, or trade one of your outfielders.

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Flapjacks Fantasy Transactions

For the other participants in my "Flapjacks" Yahoo keeper league, let's take a look at some of the recent waiver wire transactions over the weekend and see if we can assess their impact.


1. Adrian's Revenge (that's me) trades Xavier Nady to Dissect Yourself (Micah) for Austin Kearns.

This was a straight up value swap in that each team gave up an outfielder from their bench for another player that they valued more. Micah gets some more pop for his team, since Nady should hit 20-25 HR, though I think Micah's hoping for a breakout year of around 30 HR. Micah does have a need for more power as he only has a few solid HR sources (Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Matt Holliday); most of his squad is filled up with with guys who hit for average (James Loney, Kelly Johnson, Daric Barton) and speedsters (Juan Pierre, Corey Patterson). Nady will hit for power, but he's never had 500 at bats in a season and there are quite a few options in the Pittsburgh outfield. I wanted to get a player with a bit more upside and job security, which is why I targeted Austin Kearns.

Austin Kearns has the talent to hit 25 or more HR in a season, but like Nady, he'd never played a full season until last year. Kearns power was trending upward a couple of years ago in Cincinnatti; he hit 18 HR in 387 at bats in 2005 and 16 HR in 325 at bats in 2006 before being traded midway through the season to Washington. Since coming to Washington, he's hit 24 HR in 799 at bats, his power being severely stunted by his home park. Last year he hit .228 with a .695 OPS at home, while on the road he hit .301 with .832 OPS. Washington moves into a more offensive-friendly park this year, and my hope is that Austin Kearns will have a season more along the lines of his 2007 road stats, maybe .280/25/90. It's not much of a gamble on my part as neither Kearns nor Nady would have started the season anywhere but on my bench. Kearns will be blocked by Carlos Lee, Chris B. Young, Hunter Pence, Josh Willingham, Raul Ibanez, and Rick Ankiel, but Kearns could break into that group with a good first month or two, especially if there's an injury. At the very least I can spot start him right away against lefties.

I think this trade will work out well for both teams. Neither of us gave up someone we wanted and we both got someone we valued.

2. Val Kilmer's Asshole (Mark) drops Homer Bailey and picks up Mark Ellis.

Mark (whose team was previously known as the Kiwis) had dropped Freddy Sanchez last week for Doug Davis, and needed to fill his empty MI spot. Ellis is a solid yet underappreciated MI who should provide some pop. He's one of the better hitters on the Oakland team, so he should have some good RBI opportunities. Mark could have gone with someone like Jason Bartlett for more speed, but his team is pretty balanced, and I think Ellis is a good choice.

I like Homer Bailey a lot, and he may still have a good year in 2008, but he's just one of a couple pitchers fighting for the fifth spot in the Reds rotation. Mark already had seven starting pitchers before dropping Bailey, so it makes sense to lose a pitcher, but I think I would have dropped Davis and kept Bailey. Davis has been declining as a pitcher the last couple of years, and I don't think he'll turn it around soon. Better to keep Bailey and hope he gets called up to the rotation in a month.

I think Mark did a good job to fill a hole on his team, but I think he needs to replace Doug Davis in his rotation.

3. Naterade (Nate) drops Franklin Morales and adds Wily Mo Pena and Travis Buck.

Nate dropped a talented rookie - which is surprising because most of his roster is made up of talented rookies - who has struggled this spring and is not assured of a roster spot.  Franklin Morales has one more spring training start to try and impress the Rockies, but it looks like he needs more time in AAA.  Nate has a decent pitching staff, though both Francisco Liriano and John Smoltz are recovering/hurting from injury, so Morales won't be much of a loss.  

Nate picks up Wily Mo Pena to stash on his DL and Oakland outfielder Travis Buck, who plays tomorrow in the first game of the season.  I have a feeling Nate grabbed Buck to take advantage of the two games that Oakland plays this week.  Nate can get a headstart on his opponent by gaining some early stats.  I'm willing to bet that Buck will be back on the waiver wire this weekend, which is where he should stay as he the only value he has is a starting job.

Pena will start the season on the DL with a torn oblique and should be back in May.  He has lots of power - he hit 26 HR in 336 at bats playing for Cincinatti in 2004 - and is just entering his prime, but he has problems hitting righties, batting .203 in 177 at bats last year.  The talented but troubled Elijah Dukes will man left field while Pena is out, and Pena may have to split time if Dukes produces in the first month.  No harm in keeping Pena in your DL spot as a speculation pickup.

4. Dissect Yourself (Micah) picks up Tony Pena.

Micah had a roster spot open and picked up Arizona reliever Tony Pena.  This is a good pickup for a few reasons.  Our league has a 9-start limit per week, so relievers gain a greater value because the innnings they do not count against the start limit.  Pena should be the first in line for saves if Brandon Lyon is unable to hold the closer position.  Pena has decent DOM ratios, but he needs to improve his command just a little.  He'll have solid value, especially if he can take over as closer.

5.  Adrian's Revenge drops Jason Giambi and picks up Pat Neshek and Kurt Suzuki.

With Brad Lidge going on the DL to start the season, I had a roster spot open.  I wanted a relief pitcher so I could take advantage of their ability to rack up innings without counting against our start limit, and Pat Neshek was one of the best available.  Neshek had a DOM rate of 9.47 and a Command rate of 2.74 last year.  He made 74 appearances in 2007 and tired as the year went on, but he's pitched well this spring with no walks in eight innings.  He again be a dominant reliever to start the season.

I picked up Suzuki for the same reason that Nate picked up Travis Buck, because Suzuki plays for one of only two teams that have games this week.  I'm hoping Suzuki might give me a couple RBI this week before the rest of the league takes the field.  I dropped Giambi because he was the most expendable player on my roster.  He is one to watch though, for those speculating on power.

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