Trade Review - Josh Beckett for Derek Jeter

Here is the second trade between these two teams, in which Orc Mischief sends Derek Jeter to Naterade in exchange for Josh Beckett. I feel that people tend to overrate both these players, but let's see how this trade will affect these two teams.

Orc Mischief has done a good job of strengthening his team's pitching this year through trades; in his previous trade with Naterade, he received Jered Weaver in exchange for Jose Guillen. Clint's team has had mediocre records in the pitching categories this year, and the addition of Beckett should help him win an extra game or two each week, helping him in his quest for a playoff spot. After an awful first month, Beckett has been very good the rest of the year. One of the reasons that I think people overrate him is that they overlook his injury history and the inconsistency he's had as a starter throughout his career, instead tending to focus on the team he plays for and the opportunities for wins that team gives him. It can be very hard to predict wins, as evidenced by the fact that Jason Marquis has as many wins as Beckett despite playing for a team with a worse record. Though he hasn't been consistent enough in his career to be considered an ace, Beckett is a very solid pitcher due to his ability to get strikeouts. He's put up numbers similar to this season's in the past, so I think that, barring an injury, he should continue his dominating season on the mound. Clint was able to make this trade without losing much offensively thanks to the offensive resurgence of Alexei Ramirez and his pickup of Elvis Andrus a couple of weeks ago.

Derek Jeter tends to be overrated because he has a reputation as a power/speed shortstop, when he hasn't had a 20/20 season since 2004 and he has produced more than 15 steals once since that same year. With that said, Derek Jeter is on pace to have a season to rival any other in his career. He's already hit 10 HR and 17 SB with a .321 average this year. I don't think he'll keep his current paces up, but he should continue to be, at the very least, a decent source of Runs and BA. Naterade's offensive record hasn't been very good this year and Jeter should help Nate in a couple categories each week, but I'm not certain that getting Jeter will help secure Nate a playoff spot. Losing Beckett will weaken this pitching staff, but hopefully Jeter can make up for it on offense.

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Trade Review - Jose Guillen for Jered Weaver

We have our third trade of the season, as Naterade and Orc Mischief deal from their strengths to shore up their weaknesses.  Besides myself, Naterade and Orc Mischief are the only other teams to have completed a trade so far this year, with two trades apiece.  Let's look at the trade's principals.

Naterade has struggled in the HR category this year and adding Jose Guillen will help to strengthen a young and inconsistent outfield.  Naterade doesn't have many sluggers on his team and Guillen will give him a veteran outfielder with 25 HR and 100 RBI upside.  Guillen is a career .273 hitter, so he could hurt Nate's BA, but Guillen did hit .290 in 2007.  Guillen missed a couple of weeks earlier this season, but he has been hot since coming off the DL, hitting .343 with 3 HR and 11 RBI in 10 games.

Orc Mischief has had very poor pitching so far this season, and he's only won two pitching categories other than Saves this year.  Besides Johan Santana and Jon Lester, and Lester hasn't pitched that well yet, Orc Mischief has a lot of soft-tossing pitchers with little major league success.  I'm not a big fan of Jered Weaver, but he should give you double-digit Wins with an okay WHIP and ERA.  He should be a top-40 pitcher, and he will become the Orc's 3rd or 4th best pitcher.  Weaver has started out very hot this year, and he could be a fantasy surprise if he can return his strikeout rate to last year's levels.  

Not every trade has to be a blockbuster deal, and I like how both teams evaluated their own strengths and weaknesses and then dealt accordingly.  Neither team will miss the players they gave up too dearly, and they both will enjoy the services of the players they received.

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Let's Take Stock of the Surroundings

As it is now the third week of the season, I see no reason why I shouldn't be able to make wild speculations and assumptions based upon the events of the previous two weeks in my Yahoo H2H keeper league.

- After two matchups, The $5 Footlongs have taken a close lead over the Screaming Lemurs, Dissect Yourself, and Naterade.  The Footlongs have gone undefeated in every offensive category except for steals, though they have had middling results in the pitching categories.  Their victories over the Lemurs and the Macafeys have been very close, so it might not be time yet to chisel their name on the season trophy.  They've had incredible starts from Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley and Adam Jones; of the three I feel most confident in Cabrera's and Utley's abilities to maintain a high level of play, but Jones will eventually struggle at some point.  This is a good team (good enough that I put them on top of last week's power rankings), but they could easily be fourth or fifth.

- The Lemurs had a solid 10-0 victory over Summer Fox, but the matchup wasn't as lopsided as it looked.  The Fox came close to beating the Lemurs in Runs and RBI, but having Brandon Phillips and Garrett Atkins combine for 2 Runs and RBI surely didn't help his cause.  Incidentally, with Matsuzaka now on the DL, it seems that Rogstad needs to cut ties with Joey Devine in order to free up a DL spot and add a pitcher that will actually pitch this year.  Devine had surgery on his arm and will be out for the season.

- As far as the teams at the bottom of the standings, I think the Macafeys are most likely to make the playoffs.  They have too much talent to be stuck in the consolation bracket all year.  Order of the Phoenix will need to pitch better if they want to make the playoffs; none of their starters have an ERA under 5.00 to begin the year.  Orc Mischief has had a couple of tough matchups to begin the year, and I don't see them staying in the basement forever, though I don't know if they have the offense to make the playoffs.

- Let's give the Butt Admirals the "Hard Luck Award" for the first two weeks; they have tied in more categories than anyone, including tying in stolen bases each week, despite the fact that they are second in steals overall.  The Admirals would be in 7th if Emilio Bonifacio hadn't started the season so hot, or if Dustin Pedroia had stolen a base last week.

- The Tossers have stolen 6 bases so far this season, last in the league and half the amount that the Admirals and Orc Mischief put up in the first week.  It's possible that they could be the slowest team in the league, but they nearly tied Order of the Phoenix last week.

- Players that are hitting poorly this month that will hit better: Alexei Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Jay Bruce, and Chris Davis.

- Players that are hitting well that will drop off: Nick Swisher, Orlando Hudson, Mike Cameron, and Brandon Inge.

- Free Agents that I'm watching: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, Pedro Feliz, Nick Johnson, Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Davies, David Purcey, Tim Wakefield, Justin Masterson, Anibal Sanchez, and Octavio Dotel.

- Since this is a keeper league, I just wanted to briefly touch on some on some of the rookies performances so far this season.  Since most starters have only made two starts, we'll just look at the hitters.  Cameron Maybin hit his first HR today, but he's still hitting around the Mendoza line.  Colby Rasmus has more walks than strikeouts, which suggests good strike zone judgement on his part, but where's the power?  He only has one extra-base hit so far this year.  Travis Snider is hitting great, but the batting average will probably come down a bit.  The power is legit though, and 25 HR is realistic.  Elvis Andrus is also hitting well, and the stolen bases should come as long as he keeps getting on base.  Dexter Fowler is showing a solid combination of pop and speed.  Jordan Schafer is struggling and striking out way too much; where's his speed?  Based only on these past two weeks, Travis Snider should be the AL Rookie of the Year by a landslide.

- Some prospects that I'm waiting on for this year that no one has on their roster: Matt Gamel, Gordon Beckham, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Carrasco, and Tommy Hanson.    

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First Trade of the Year

I was happy to be a part of the first trade of the year in our league as I and Orc Mischief swapped players.   Orc Mischief looks to have improved their chances of success this year and I have added some risk in the hopes that I will have greater success in the near future.  I tend to make at least one bad trade each year (Adam Dunn for Morgan Ensberg in 2006, Brian Roberts for Kelly Johnson in 2008) and hopefully this trade won't bite me in the ass this  year.

Here's the trade: I get Matt Kemp and Joe Mauer and Orc Mischief gets Brian McCann and Carlos Lee.  

Orc Mischief has greatly improved their team by moving an injured catcher for a better one and adding one of the best and most consistent sluggers in the game.  Both are solid keepers for next year.  I gave up a lot, but I did get younger by adding Kemp, whose steals should make up for Lee's power, and my hope is that he will be a solid star for years to come.  Lee is a great player but he probably can play at an elite level for only a couple more years.  Getting Kemp greatly improves my keepers for next year, though I may have hurt by team's ability to be competitive in 2009.  How I do will depend on how many games Joe Mauer misses this year.  If Mauer only misses a month, I could still be in the hunt for the playoffs, because when he's a great hitter when healthy.  I think McCann is a better fantasy player, but Mauer is not far behind.  I think both teams got a fair deal from this trade.

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