Trade Review - Ryan Howard for Nelson Cruz/Adam Wainwright/Roy Halladay

The final trade prior to the league's deadline, and the second of the day for the Macafeys, involves two teams heading for the consolation bracket during the playoffs. The Macafeys move Nelson Cruz, Adam Wainwright, and Roy Halladay to The Balls for Ryan Howard, as both teams look towards future keeper plans.

I think Tim gave up too much to get Ryan Howard. Howard is a beast who can hit 50 HR a year, but he's hit .262 since his MVP season in 2006, and he'll be 30 to start next season. When Howard was named MVP, he hit .313 with 58 HR, astounding numbers that I think will be an outlier for his career stats. Howard has power, but I don't like his chances to hit over .300 again. Tim did receive a talented player, as Howard will be his best first baseman and power hitter heading into the 2010 season, but I think he could have received a little better deal for the players he offered.

Those players include two of the best pitchers in the game, Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay. Halladay is putting up one of the best strikeout rates of his career, and he continues to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. Halladay will be 33 to start next season, but there's no reason to assume that he will not continue to be an ace in the AL. With 200 less starts in his career than Halladay, Wainwright has less of a track record of success than the Cy Young winner, but the young pitcher has shown this year that he has the talent to be one of the top 10 pitchers in the MLB. It's a sign of his talent that his numbers have gotten better as the year has moved along. If Brubaker keeps both pitchers along with new White Sox ace Jake Peavy, he will have a collection of pitching talent that could top any other team in the league. Typically I don't like to keep pitchers, but if you can amass a group of talented aces it can be worth the risk to keep them.

The third player in the trade, Nelson Cruz, looks like he could be a rich man's Mike Cameron. I was down on the late-blooming OF at the beginning of the year, but he has put up some impressive numbers this year with 26 HR and 17 SB. Brubaker may have to drop someone he likes to make room for Cruz on his keeper list, but he could be getting a top-20 OF if Cruz can keep his batting average in the .270-.280 range.

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Trade Review - Alex Rios/Andrew Bailey for Curtis Granderson

In the first of two trades by the Macafeys prior to the deadline, Tim trades Alex Rios and Andrew Bailey to the Screaming Lemurs for Curtis Granderson. The Lemurs appear to be nearly assured of a playoff spot, while the Macafeys are most likely headed for the consolation bracket.

With Andrew Bailey, the Lemurs now have a third closer to go along with Heath Bell and Leo Nunez. Bailey will be a strong #2 closer behind Bell, and this relief depth will help the Lemurs as they contend for the championship. He should have a handful of saves the rest of the year, and his high strikeout totals will come in handy. The Lemurs lose some power in this trade, but I believe the tradeoff is worth it to get more saves, and Rios's offensive potential should help make up for the loss of Granderson. Rios is only hitting .265 this year, but he has shown in the past that he can be a better hitter than Granderson and he can match Granderson's ability for steals. Rios has yet to have the breakout season that everyone has expected of him, but he is a decent keeper for next year due to his combination of power and speed.

Granderson is having a career year due to his HR and SB totals, and it seems obvious that the Macafeys like him better than Rios. I'm not too high on Granderson due to his inability to hit for high average throughout most of his career, but I think he can be a solid source for HR as he gets older. I don't think we can count on him being a 20/20 guy next year, but he should chip in enough steals to make him a top-20 outfielder. Whether or not he will be an upgrade over Rios in years to come is the main question, as the Macafeys are clearly betting that he will.

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Let's Take Stock of the Surroundings

As it is now the third week of the season, I see no reason why I shouldn't be able to make wild speculations and assumptions based upon the events of the previous two weeks in my Yahoo H2H keeper league.

- After two matchups, The $5 Footlongs have taken a close lead over the Screaming Lemurs, Dissect Yourself, and Naterade.  The Footlongs have gone undefeated in every offensive category except for steals, though they have had middling results in the pitching categories.  Their victories over the Lemurs and the Macafeys have been very close, so it might not be time yet to chisel their name on the season trophy.  They've had incredible starts from Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley and Adam Jones; of the three I feel most confident in Cabrera's and Utley's abilities to maintain a high level of play, but Jones will eventually struggle at some point.  This is a good team (good enough that I put them on top of last week's power rankings), but they could easily be fourth or fifth.

- The Lemurs had a solid 10-0 victory over Summer Fox, but the matchup wasn't as lopsided as it looked.  The Fox came close to beating the Lemurs in Runs and RBI, but having Brandon Phillips and Garrett Atkins combine for 2 Runs and RBI surely didn't help his cause.  Incidentally, with Matsuzaka now on the DL, it seems that Rogstad needs to cut ties with Joey Devine in order to free up a DL spot and add a pitcher that will actually pitch this year.  Devine had surgery on his arm and will be out for the season.

- As far as the teams at the bottom of the standings, I think the Macafeys are most likely to make the playoffs.  They have too much talent to be stuck in the consolation bracket all year.  Order of the Phoenix will need to pitch better if they want to make the playoffs; none of their starters have an ERA under 5.00 to begin the year.  Orc Mischief has had a couple of tough matchups to begin the year, and I don't see them staying in the basement forever, though I don't know if they have the offense to make the playoffs.

- Let's give the Butt Admirals the "Hard Luck Award" for the first two weeks; they have tied in more categories than anyone, including tying in stolen bases each week, despite the fact that they are second in steals overall.  The Admirals would be in 7th if Emilio Bonifacio hadn't started the season so hot, or if Dustin Pedroia had stolen a base last week.

- The Tossers have stolen 6 bases so far this season, last in the league and half the amount that the Admirals and Orc Mischief put up in the first week.  It's possible that they could be the slowest team in the league, but they nearly tied Order of the Phoenix last week.

- Players that are hitting poorly this month that will hit better: Alexei Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Jay Bruce, and Chris Davis.

- Players that are hitting well that will drop off: Nick Swisher, Orlando Hudson, Mike Cameron, and Brandon Inge.

- Free Agents that I'm watching: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, Pedro Feliz, Nick Johnson, Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Davies, David Purcey, Tim Wakefield, Justin Masterson, Anibal Sanchez, and Octavio Dotel.

- Since this is a keeper league, I just wanted to briefly touch on some on some of the rookies performances so far this season.  Since most starters have only made two starts, we'll just look at the hitters.  Cameron Maybin hit his first HR today, but he's still hitting around the Mendoza line.  Colby Rasmus has more walks than strikeouts, which suggests good strike zone judgement on his part, but where's the power?  He only has one extra-base hit so far this year.  Travis Snider is hitting great, but the batting average will probably come down a bit.  The power is legit though, and 25 HR is realistic.  Elvis Andrus is also hitting well, and the stolen bases should come as long as he keeps getting on base.  Dexter Fowler is showing a solid combination of pop and speed.  Jordan Schafer is struggling and striking out way too much; where's his speed?  Based only on these past two weeks, Travis Snider should be the AL Rookie of the Year by a landslide.

- Some prospects that I'm waiting on for this year that no one has on their roster: Matt Gamel, Gordon Beckham, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Carrasco, and Tommy Hanson.    

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Tip of the Cap

I want to offer a tip of the cap, to steal Stephen Colbert's oft-used and possibly trademarked phrase, to my opponent this week the Balls for their prodigious offensive output today.  They hit .386 with 10 Runs, 6 HR, and 15 RBI, giving them a large lead over my pitiful .194/7/1/2 day.

Big hitters for the Balls were Carlos Quentin with 2 HR and 4 RBI, and Aubrey Huff with 4 hits and 3 RBI.  The Balls' offense is off to a solid start this season, and I commend them on their strong performance today.

Though my offense fared poorly today, I'd be remiss if I didn't comment on the solid pitching performance I received from Zack Greinke in his match against the Indians.  Greinke struck out 9 in just 5 innings, and though his WHIP suffered from 6 hits and 2 walks, Greinke recieved the W.  Greinke has put up some great numbers in his first two starts, striking out 16 while keeping the opposition scoreless through 11 innings, and I'm excited to see what he'll do as the year progresses.  

Since we are giving out tips of the cap, I'd like to acknowledge the strong pitching performances that the Macafeys and Naterade put up against each other last week.  The Macafeys barely overcame Naterade in 3 out of the 5 categories while tying in Saves.  The Macafeys received strong performances from Erik Bedard, Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson, while Naterade countered with Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez.  Both teams look like they will have formidable rotations this year.

I hope to have a short power rankings up by Friday, and maybe a small look back at the first two weeks of the season early next week.  

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Best of the Best Keepers

With each owner’s seven keepers submitted, let’s take a look at the three teams that I think have the top keepers.  I will list their keepers along with their ESPN and Yahoo ranking, and I will give a few thoughts on why I think their teams have the best keepers.

The Dinos

1. Albert Pujols (3,3)

2. Miguel Cabrera (8,7)

3. Tim Lincecum (12,21)

4. Chase Utley (17,22)

5. Carlos Beltran (25,19)

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (62,51)

7. Bobby Abreu (60,94)

Barring injuries, the Dinos should be set for the next few years with this core.  They have last year’s Cy Young and MVP winners, they have one of the best second baseman in the game, and they have a young speedster who stole 50 bases in his first full season.  Their top-five could all be top-20 players this season.  There’s a decent mix of power and speed, along with an ace to head up the rotation.  The only negative is that Chase Utley should miss most of April, but it sounds like he’s progressing rapidly in his return from surgery.

Macafeys

1. David Wright (4,5)

2. Jimmy Rollins (10,12)

3. BJ Upton (41,14)

4. Roy Halladay (24,58)

5. Alex Rios (44,43)

6. Geovany Soto (71,54)

7. Derrek Lee (55,95)

The Macafeys also have a great foundation of young and talented players, with two first-rounders and a staff ace.  This team has a better mix of speed and power than the Dinos, but the Dinos have a deeper top-five and there are some question marks about some of the Macafeys players.  Will Geovany Soto duplicate last year’s success?  Can Alex Rios put his talents for power and speed together for one season?  Will BJ Upton and Jimmy Rollins find their power strokes again?  This team will be good, but how good remains to be seen.

Screaming Lemurs

1. Ryan Braun (6,8)

2. Ian Kinsler (26,11)

3. Carl Crawford (33,28)

4. Brandon Webb (28,46)

5. Cole Hamels (35,45)

6. Aramis Ramirez (42,39)

7. Curtis Granderson (50,42)

The Lemurs are just completely solid from top to bottom.  Though they don’t have the as many elite players as the Dinos or the Macafeys, all of their players are ranked in the top-50 to begin the season.  That’s pretty impressive, and it’s that level of depth that keeps them right behind these two teams.  There’s a lot of speed on this team, but probably not as much power as the other two teams.  Having two aces means they can focus on hitting for the first few rounds.  This team just needs Ian Kinsler to stay healthy and rebound seasons from Carl Crawford and Curtis Granderson to challenge for the championship. 

Let me know what you think.  There’s also a poll if you feel like giving a vote.  I’m going to try to do a mock draft of the first round by Friday, so there’s that to look forward to.  

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Last of the Keepers - Macafeys

Finally, let’s look at the last team in our league, the 2008 champions: the Macafeys.  The Macafeys have had a strong team that past few years; this was the second year in a row that they made the championship round, and this is their first championship.  Will they repeat?

The Macafeys

Elijah Dukes (Was - OF)        

Adam Dunn (Was - 1B,OF)  

Jeff Francoeur (Atl - OF)       

Alex Gordon (KC - 1B,3B)   

Carlos Gómez (Min - OF)      

Derrek Lee (ChC - 1B)          

Magglio Ordóñez (Det - OF) 

Jimmy Rollins (Phi - SS)        

Álex Ríos (Tor - OF)  

Geovany Soto (ChC - C)       

Ian Stewart (Col - 2B,3B)     

B.J. Upton (TB - 2B,OF)       

David Wright (NYM - 3B)    

Cha Seung Baek (SD - SP,RP)          

Grant Balfour (TB - RP)        

Taylor Buchholz (Col - SP,RP)          

Joey Devine (Oak - RP)         

Freddy García (NYM - SP)   

Jesse Litsch (Tor - SP)           

Kyle Lohse (StL - SP)           

Sean Marshall (ChC - SP,RP)

Zach Miner (Det - SP,RP)     

Ross Ohlendorf (Pit - SP,RP)

Josh Outman (Oak - SP,RP)  

The Macafeys are stacked in the infield with Jimmy Rollins and David Wright, both consensus first-round picks.  Wright is 26 and Rollins is 30, so there’s no reason to think that they can’t produce first round numbers again this year.  Rollins missed time early last season due to an ankle injury, but he shouldn’t be bothered by it this year.  Both players are easy picks due to age and track record, though Rollins will lose value if he fails to hit 20 HR again this year. 

B.J. Upton’s value dropped last season when he hit 9 HR after hitting 24 in 2008, but it seems likely that shoulder problems hindered his power output last year.  Offseason surgery will hopefully fix that, though he will miss the first week of the season.  I think Upton will bounce back to hit 20 HR again.  He’s young, and he did manage to hit 7 HR in the playoffs last year.  Throw in 40 steals, and you have a player looking to bounce back to elite outfielder levels.

Last season’s NL Rookie of the Year, Geovany Soto propelled himself near the top of the catchers’ rankings with a great first year.  Soto was inconsistent last year, but he showed flashes of greatness.  I think we can expect another 20 HR season from Soto, maybe more as he gets comfortable with league’s pitching.  He’s definitely a top-five catcher.

The Macafeys have a lot of keepers to choose from, and I almost want to go with Roy Halladay, but rather than choose that elite pitcher, I’m going to go with Alex Rios.  We’ve been waiting for Rios to have a 20/20 or even a 30/30 season for a couple of years now, but I think he puts it together this year.  Rios might never be an elite outfielder, but his ability to hit for average and his speed make him a solid contributor.  The upside his skills represent say that you have to keep him in case he does put it together this year.  I’m encouraged by the power surge he experienced in the second half last year, so I do think he can take that next step forward. 

Two more spots.  I’m going to pass up Halladay again and go with Derrek Lee.  Lee’s not getting any younger, but he’s still a good hitter, providing you middle-tier value at the first base position.  He’s not going to hit 30 HR, but he’ll give you a batting average around .300 and good RBI and Runs totals.  Lee is not elite, but he does represent a solid value, and I don’t think the Macafeys are going to be able to pick up any first baseman close to Lee’s skill level.

I considered a few different players for this last spot.  You know that Adam Dunn will hit for power and hurt your average, and this team could use some more power, but I don’t think this team needs another outfielder.  Besides, Dunn is usually available by the ninth round over at ESPN, so I think that he’ll be available for the Macafeys to draft if they don’t keep him.  Magglio Ordonez is getting older and he doesn’t run or hit for power anymore.  He does hit for average and could provide numbers similar to Rios, minus the steals, but I still don’t think this team needs another outfielder.  I really like Elijah Dukes for his potential if he can stay healthy and stay out of trouble, but he’s not a keeper yet.  I think it’s time to let go of Alex Gordon.  While Gordon still has a chance to have a good career and it’s possible that he breaks out this year, I don’t think he’s valuable enough to be a keeper.  He’ll probably slip due to the fact that he hasn’t measured up to the hype, so wait a few rounds and then draft him.  I think the last spot has to go to Roy Halladay.  I don’t like to keep pitchers and I almost want to take Ordonez instead, but consistently dominant pitchers like Halladay are important in head-to-head.  Halladay will start at least 30 games and give you elite control.  He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he will help you in ERA and WHIP.  All of these other players could fall in our draft, but I don’t think Halladay makes it to the Macafeys in the first round.

All right, that’s it, all the teams have been looked at except for mine.  I will post my keepers on Wednesday, the day keepers are due for our league, and as I said last time, I will try to rank the top-three teams based on their keepers.

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Random Thoughts

- I just wanted to point out that since the Tossers lost 7 matchups in row earlier this season, they have gone 5-1-1 over their last 7 matchups, beating a few highly ranked teams. Good job, Troost.

- Self Indulgence got to play the role of playoff spoiler last week when they beat the Macafeys 9-0. The Macafeys were tied with the Balls for the final playoff spot prior to the matchup, now they have to dig themselves out of a 5-game hole. Tim's team was let down by poor pitching and by poor hitting from his infield, but mostly he got beat by a team having a good week. Incidentally, the Macafeys are sitting at .500 and I can't remember the last time that's happened this late in the season.

- Things that caught my eye as I looked at the waiver wire:
For anyone looking for help at catcher, Jesus Flores is catching full-time for the Nationals, and he's .304 with 9 RBI over the past week. He's been getting most of his at bats in the 5th spot, so their could be the chance for more RBI production if he keeps hitting, but that depends on people getting on base for him.
Dave Bush has had a few good outings mixed in with some poor ones, but he could be a good pitcher to pick up if the matchup is right. He's pitched much better at home than on the road this year, with a 3.30 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. That is a ridiculously small WHIP.
Speaking of home/away splits, Greg Maddux has been very good when pitching at Petco. His Batting Average Against is .228 at home compared to .326 on the road, and he has a WHIP of 1.00 at home. Pick your matchups with Maddux, and he'll serve you well.
For all the talk about how Mike Cameron would finally be out of pitchers parks, he's hitting better when playing away from Milwaukee. His OPS is .906 on the road versus .627 at home. He'll flirt with 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases, not bad for player who missed the first month of the season.

- I'd like to thank Raul Ibanez for his stellar play over the last few days; he has 15 RBI in his last four games, and he's the main reason I am beating the Butt Admirals in RBI this week.

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5 Weeks To Go

- We have five weeks left in the regular season before the playoffs starts; let's look at three teams fighting for a playoff spot.

Macafeys - 86-77-7 (tied for final playoff spot)
Balls - 84-75-11 (tied for final playoff spot)
Dinos - 77-84-9 (8 games out of final playoff spot)

With just five weeks to go, there isn't much time left to gain ground, but the Dinos do face the Macafeys once more before the season ends. With a strong showing against the Macafeys, the Dinos could pass them up for 7th place, just outside of a playoff spot. The Balls have the easiest schedule, with three matchups against teams out of contention.

The Balls and the Dinos just made a blockbuster trade, each time trying to fill a need as they head down the final stretch. The Balls traded Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, and Bobby Abreu for Ryan Howard, Chone Figgins, and Joe Nathan. The Balls are losing a lot on the offensive end, but they do gain back a premier slugger and an elite closer. With Joe Nathan, the Balls have upgraded their bullpen immensely, previously having to rely on Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman for saves. Even without Abreu, Pujols, and Cano, the Balls still have a formidable offense.

The Dinos have nearly gutted their bullpen, with Troy Percival as their only closer, but they have recharged their offense. Even when hurt, Pujols is still one of the best closers in the game, but the Dinos may have hurt themselves next year if Pujols has to miss most of the season because of surgery. Cano looks like he's shaken off his first-half slump, and he's now slugging .554 this month. Abreu gives the Dinos another decent bat in the outfield.

Will this trade help the Dinos overtake the Balls? Well they have more offense, and they should hit for better average, especially since they won't have to carry around Howard's .237 batting average. The Balls are a more well-rounded team with the addition of Figgins' speed and Nathan's saves. I think the trade was pretty even, but I'll say that it's not going to be enough to push the Dinos past the Balls.

- Taking a look at the trading block (which is a nice idea, but I wish Yahoo would make the presentation a little more user-friendly), the Dinos are offering up Corner Infielders and Outfielders for Starting Pitching. The Macafeys have Roy Halladay, Rich Harden, and Shaun Marcum on the trading block, and they are looking for HR and RBI. Let's see what could work for them, maybe J.D. Drew for Rich Harden or Carlos Beltran for Roy Halladay? I don't know, I'm just speculating.

- Carlos Guillen has more walks than strikeouts this month, and it's helping; he scored 12 runs last week and has 19 this month.

- Miguel Cabrera is going off this month; 13 RBI last week and 26 in July.

- Waiver Wire Watch: For those in need of a catcher, Ramon Hernandez has started to produce. He has an OPS of .814 so far in June and July.

For those looking for a pitcher, Bronson Arroyo has a WHIP of 1.12 in his last 33 innings.

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Flapjacks Fantasy Transactions

Here's another look at some of the recent transactions in my Yahoo keeper league.

1.  Macafeys (Tim) drop Tim Wakefield and pick up Jason Varitek, then drops Varitek and picks up Asdrubal Cabrera.

I assume that this was done to take advantage of the two games that Boston plays this week, as Tim already has a decent, if raw option at catcher in Geovany Soto.

I don't know how much this will affect Wakefield's season, but Doug Mirabelli, Wakefield's personal catcher, was waived by the Red Sox.  Boston's catchers had problems catching Wakefield's knuckle ball last year, enough so that Boston was forced to trade for Mirabelli back from the Padres.  Wakefield has always managed to win games, but I think it's more likely that he continues to regress this year due to age.

Cabrera is a young second baseman with some upside upside.  He hit .310 in AA last year with an .837 OPS, then hit .283 in the majors after being called up in August.  He'll likely need another year or two before developing into a top ten 2B, but he does give Tim a decent option at MI in case Bobby Crosby is injured. 

2. The Balls (Bru) drop Carlos Quentin for Edison Volquez.

I like Volquez, but I'm not certain that Bru needed another pitcher, having already rostered six on his squad.  Maybe he wasn't completely confident in the abilities of Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez to pitch a full season.  

Quentin has talent and should get his share of at bats in the White Sox's outfield, but I don't think he's ready to be a solid contributor this year.  

This is a good pickup for the fact that Volquez has upside and Quentin was expendable, but I think Bru needs to improve his offense, especially since Cameron Maybin was just sent down.

3.  Tossers (Troost) picks up Jason Bartlett.

Since Kaz Matsui will miss the first couple weeks of the season with anal fissures, Troost needed to pickup a MI.  Bartlett stole 23 bases last year with the Twins, and with his move to the Rays, a team with a more aggressive base path philosophy, Bartlett should better those numbers.  The Rays will get twelve games against the Yankees and the Orioles in the first two weeks of the season, two teams with catchers that do not do a good job of limiting base stealers. Bartlett should have a few SB in during those series.

4.  Naterade (Nate) drops Josh Fields and picks up Andre Ethier.

Fields has been demoted to the minors, but he'll be back up this year, and he could provide great value as a keeper.  Fields has great power, but a poor batting average; if he can run like he did in AAA in 2006 when he stole 26 bases, he'll be a poor man's Ryan Braun.

Ethier has been one of the Dodgers' best players this spring, hitting .340 with 5 HR in 50 AB's. He could improve on his HR totals if he can beat out Juan Pierre for playing time in left field. Ethier could be a very good 5th outfielder, and he should provide Nate a decent option if Justin Upton or Adam Jones struggles to begin the year.  I like Ethier and I think he'll improve on his numbers from the last two seasons.

The only problem is that Nate is now severely lacking in corner infielders, with only Kevin Youkilis guaranteed playing time.  Time to hit the waiver wire, or trade one of your outfielders.

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Keepers Part X

We move now to our second-place finisher in 2007, the Macafeys. Managed by Tim Ledoux, the Macafeys finished first in the regular season due to a impressive collection of speed and power, solid relief pitching, and a heavy reliance on streaming. The Macafeys ultimately lost in the championship round, but the abundance of talented young players on their roster should again make them competitive in 2008. Let's take a look.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

The Macafeys

The Hitters
Billy Butler (KC - 1B,OF)
Adam Dunn (Cin - OF)
Alex Gordon (KC - 1B,3B)
Brad Hawpe (Col - OF)
Ian Kinsler (Tex - 2B)
Derrek Lee (ChC - 1B)
Wily Mo Peña (Was - OF)
Mark Reynolds (Ari - 3B)
Jimmy Rollins (Phi - SS)
Álex Ríos (Tor - OF)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tex - C,1B)
B.J. Upton (TB - 2B,3B,OF)
David Wright (NYM - 3B)
Kevin Youkilis (Bos - 1B,3B,OF)

The Pitchers
Homer Bailey (Cin - SP)
Chad Cordero (Was - RP)
Kevin Gregg (Fla - SP,RP)
Trevor Hoffman (SD - RP)
Kei Igawa (NYY - SP)
Aaron Laffey (Cle - SP)
Brandon McCarthy (Tex - SP,RP)
Joe Nathan (Min - RP)
Jeff Suppan (Mil - SP)
Brett Tomko (KC - SP,RP)
Barry Zito (SF - SP)

The Keepers

1. David Wright
If it wasn’t for a certain 2007 AL MVP, David Wright would be the best third baseman in baseball. As it is, being number two is not a bad place to be, especially if you’re also considered one of the top three hitters in fantasy baseball. Wright went 30/30 in 2007, one of only three players to do so last year, and the only third baseman of that elite group. Wright provides great production in all five categories, rare for a corner position, and he’s still yet to reach his prime. He’s even shown the ability to increase his understanding of the strike zone, as shown by his career-high 94 walks last season. Wright should flirt with another 30/30 season in 2008, and he’ll finish the season as one of the top-five fantasy hitters in the MLB.

2. Jimmy Rollins
Shrewd drafting over the past couple of years as allowed Tim to acquire two first-round keepers in their primes. Jimmy Rollins is a top-three shortstop who also went 30/30 last year. He proved that the 25 HR he hit in 2006 were no fluke, topping that number with a career-high 30 HR last year. Rollins’ power growth as arrived over the past two years, but he’s always been a great base-stealer, averaging 35 steals a year since his rookie season, topping 40 three times. Rollins took a while to get going last year, hitting .250 and going homerless in May, but he hit .310 the rest of the way to win the NL MVP award. Rollins plays in a favorable ballpark, and bats leadoff for a powerful lineup, so a 130 runs scored should again be achievable. Even if his power regresses, he’ll still provide 20+ HR with 35-40 SB, and I believe that this is the year he hits .300. Another solid 5-category producer.

3. B.J. Upton
Continuing a trend of infielders with power and speed, B.J. Upton is another young player with 25/25 potential. I don’t think his .300 BA in 2007 was for real and I do expect BA regression in 2008. Upton struck out once every 3.08 at bats in 2007, by far the most frequent rate among .300 or better hitters last year. Upton cannot sustain that high of a batting average unless he cuts down on his strikeouts. I think an average around .275-.280 is more likely. Upton is a star in the making, but he did appear to become overmatched as the season went on, hitting .260 and striking out 69 times in 205 at bats from August to September. Expect him to take a step back in 2008, but the power and speed is for real, he will only need some experience before he can improve upon his 2007 numbers.

4. Alex Rios
I’m already jealous of the talent that Tim has accumulated with his first four keepers, as each of these hitters provides, at the very least, four-category production. Alex Rios has long tantalized fantasy owners with his 20/20 upside. He’s never matched his potential, mainly due to the fact that he tends to wear down over the course of the season, only exceeding 481 at bats once in his career. Last season he appeared in 161 games, hitting .297/24/85/17, and it’s this kind of production that makes me think he’ll be a top-15 outfielder in fantasy baseball. Heck, if it all falls together for him, he could be top-10, but I’m not expecting it. Rios needs to improve his numbers against right-handed pitching if he wants to be a .300 hitter. I don’t think he’ll improve that much on his 2007 numbers, but even if he doesn’t, he’s still a solid contributor in nearly all areas.

5. Adam Dunn
By now we all know what to expect from Adam Dunn; he’s a durable player who swings for the fences, providing you with a low batting average and a high number of home runs. Over the past four years, Dunn has averaged 158 games played, 41 home runs, and a .250 batting average. Tim already has a few guys on his team who hit for a high average, so he can afford the effects of Dunn’s poor batting average in order to reap the benefits of his power. With the benefit of a favorable home stadium, Dunn should continue to mash, and his power will place him among the top-20 outfielders. Of course, Tim wouldn’t have Dunn if I hadn’t traded him for Morgan Ensberg in 2006, right before Ensberg took a dive in the second half, crapping all over my season. Let’s move on.

6. Derek Lee
Derek Lee is getting older, and last year was a bit disappointing for those expecting his fourth 30 HR season, but Lee is still a top-ten first baseman for 2008. As long as he’s healthy, he should be good for 25 home runs and a .300 average. I don’t see him reaching double-digits in steals, but he could be good for 8. What gives me hope for a power resurgence for Lee is that he got better as the year went on, with 16 of his 22 home runs coming after June. What doesn’t give me hope is that he’s not hitting as many fly balls as he once did. Lee still has the power to hit 30 HR, but he can’t do it if he doesn’t hit the ball in the air. I’m still confident that he has another top-ten first baseman season in him, so go ahead and keep him.

7. Alex Gordon
Alex Gordon was another player who disappointed fantasy owners in 2007, as the “fabled heir” to George Brett ended up playing like just another rookie. Expectations aside, if we judge Gordon’s season on its own merits, 60/.247/15/60/14 is quite respectable for a 23-year old facing his first major league competition. AJ Mass at ESPN.com recently discussed how the hype surrounding Alex Gordon skews our perception of his final 2007 stats. As for me, I know that Tim already has two good corner infield options, but I say you have to take another chance on Gordon, if only because he could be one of the few 1B/3B eligible players to go 20/20 this season. It might take some time for him to get that batting average up to a respectable area, but the power and speed are there. Gordon has enough upside to justify taking the CI spot on Tim’s roster.

The Also-Rans
Tim has a couple players that could be kept instead of Gordon, but I like his upside too much to recommend them over him. Brad Hawpe showed continued power growth in 2008, hitting 29 HR in just 516 at bats, but I think he’ll have trouble hitting .290 again if he continues to struggle so badly against left-handers (.224 against them over the past three years). I think he’ll be a solid outfield option, but there’s enough outfield depth that Tim can afford to pass on him. Ian Kinsler is another guy who went 20/20 in 2007 (geez Tim, how many of those guys did you have last year?), but I don’t think he does it again next year. His power really left him in the second half last year, only six home runs, though he did miss most of July due to injury. He does provide a good combination of power and speed, but his inability to hit right-handers keeps his average down, and besides, Tim already has a 2B-eligible Upton on his squad. There’s a quartet of closers that Tim has the option to keep, but Joe Nathan is the only one I would consider keeping, and I wouldn’t take him over Alex Gordon. Nathan’s averaged 40 saves and 88 strikeouts over the past four years that he’s been Minnesota’s closer, so he’s definitely valuable, but there will be many closers available in our draft, so Tim should do fine without Nathan. Trevor Hoffman is still a good closer, but he’s older and getting more unreliable every year. Kevin Gregg was a surprise closer last year for the Marlins, but he still doesn’t have the job security needed for a closer to be deemed keeper-worthy. Chad Cordero is another closer whose skills have been slipping, as his K/BB rate has steadily decreased over the past three seasons; he could find himself traded or passed over for another option like Jon Rauch. Billy Butler has the skills to hit .300 this year, but he hasn’t displayed much in the way of power yet, and Kansas City is not necessarily the best place to find Runs and RBI. He has value, but wait until the later rounds to get him. Kevin Youkilis will give you a good average, okay power, and a good amount of Runs, but Tim already has his corner infield spots locked up, so he’s redundant.

Tim, you have a very impressive collection of players with both power and speed. Four top-50 players in a 12-team league is an excellent base to start from. I think Tim could be the team to beat in 2008.

All right, one more team to go. Hopefully by Sunday I’ll have posted my look at Nate’s team and will have finished my series of keeper analysis for each team in my league.

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