Friday, February 22, 2008

Keepers Part VIII

Continuing my analysis of each team’s keepers from my Yahoo league, we take a look at the Tossers, managed by my heterosexual life partner, Troost. The Tossers finished fourth in 2007, and they have a decent mix of speed and power to carry over to next year. Lots of veterans on this team, so they may want to use 2008 to get a little younger. Let’s look at the Tossers.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.


The Tossers

Hitters
Garret Anderson (LAA - OF)
Barry Bonds (SF - OF)
Mike Cameron (Mil - OF)
Travis Hafner (Cle - 1B)
Corey Hart (Mil - OF)
Torii Hunter (LAA - OF)
Conor Jackson (Ari - 1B)
Jeff Kent (LAD - 1B,2B)
Jeff Keppinger (Cin - 3B,SS)
Julio Lugo (Bos - 2B,3B,SS)
Nate McLouth (Pit - OF)
Jorge Posada (NYY - C)
Álex Rodríguez (NYY - 3B)
Scott Rolen (Tor - 3B)
Gary Sheffield (Det - 1B,OF)
Michael Young (Tex - SS)

Pitchers
Jason Bergmann (Was - SP,RP)
Joe Borowski (Cle - RP)
Ubaldo Jiménez (Col - SP)
Derek Lowe (LAD - SP)
Pedro Martínez (NYM - SP)
Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP)
Wandy Rodríguez (Hou - SP,RP)
Takashi Saito (LAD - RP)
Curt Schilling (Bos - SP)
Carlos Zambrano (ChC - SP)

The Keepers

1. Alex Rodriguez
There is no reason not to want Alex Rodriguez on your fantasy team in 2008, and it’s hard to argue that he shouldn’t be taken number one. He’s a slugger in his prime on one of the best teams in baseball. Since joining the Yankees, he’s averaged 43 HR, .303 BA, 128 RBI, and 22 stolen bases. You can almost guarantee 35 HR, .300 BA, 120 RBI, and 20 SB, and there’s a great chance that his numbers will be better than that. There’re no obvious signs that his skills are declining, so we should expect another MVP-caliber season from A-rod. He’s a reliable superstar, and that’s exactly what you want in a first-round pick.

2. Travis Hafner
Travis Hafner had a down year in 2007 compared to huge numbers he put up in 129 games in 2006. He started out strong hitting .338/.471/.550 in May, but then his numbers went into a nose dive before he finished strong by hitting .316/.414/.551 in September. In the four months in between, he never hit better than .253, never had an OBP over .400, and never slugged better than .455. It would be nice to assume that he was suffering from some kind of lingering injury, but Hafner never complained of one and he appeared in a career-high 152 games. It’s possible that we can attribute his offensive struggles to bad luck; he had a contact rate of 79%, his best since coming to the majors, but his hit rate was 30%, 4% less than his three-year average previous to 2007. Hafner should rebound, especially if he can cut down on his GB/FB ratio, but a return to his 2006 numbers is no sure thing. Expect numbers closer to his 2005 season.

3. Michael Young
Michael Young is one of the more dependable hitters at the shortstop position. He’ll hit over .300 and chip in double-digit home runs and stolen bases. His greatest value is his ability to hit for contact, which is helped by his strong line-drive rate, but don’t discount the steals and home runs that he chips in. His power is declining, but his speed is still there, so a repeat of his 2007 numbers is within reach. Young might have trouble scoring runs in the Rangers offense without Mark Teixeira around to knock him in, but he could come close to 100 RBI if the team bats him in the 3rd spot the majority of the time, as they did in 2007. Young’s numbers have historically been better hitting 2nd rather than 3rd, so pay attention to where he spends his time in the lineup during spring training.

4. Takashi Saito
Takashi Saito was one of the best closers in baseball last year, and while his numbers will most likely regress from last year, he should be a very good closer option in 2008. He improved his K/BB and BB/9 ratios, and his ground ball rate jumped by 10%. There are some warning signs as his HR/FB rate rose, and his strand rate was a very high 88%. History says that pitchers with high strand rates usually regress to normal levels the next year, which leads to a rise in ERA. Barring injury or an impatience on the part of Dodgers’ management to see Jonathan Broxton take over the role. Saito will have a good chance to save 30+ games in 2008.

5. Torii Hunter
Torii Hunter is a dependable outfield option; he’ll provide a mix of power and speed with a decent BA. He’ll benefit from playing with the Angels, a team that scored more runs and attempted more stolen bases in 2007 than Hunter’s old team, the Twins. Hunter is getting older, but there’s no evidence that he can’t come close to his 2007 stats this year; though his batting average will most likely a few points, he should steal around 20 bases in 2008. Click here to read my thoughts from November when Hunter’s new deal was announced.

6. Corey Hart
The Brewers gave Corey Hart a chance to earn a spot in the outfield in 2007, and he rewarded the team and fantasy owners alike with what could be the first of many 20/20 seasons. Hart has a favorable GB/FB ratio, which could lead to an increased home run output as he reaches his prime (he’ll be 26 when the season begins). One area he’ll have to work on is walking more and striking out less, which could be helped as he gets more at bats against major league pitching. Watch where he bats in the Brewer’s lineup; he split time with Rickie Weeks in the lead off spot, but he also had 119 at the 5th spot. Where he hits might play a part into how much he runs or how many RBI chances he gets. Either way, he’ll be a good source of both power and speed.

7. Gary Sheffield
Gary Sheffield is getting older, and his body isn’t holding up as well as it used to, but when healthy, Sheffield still has the skills of a very dangerous hitter. Sheffield started slow last season with a poor April, but from May-July he hit .320 with 21 home runs. He missed 23 games between August and September due to a collision with Placido Polanco that resulted in a sore shoulder. Sheffield had surgery in October that uncovered a torn labrum. As of last week, Sheffield has been swinging a bat without any pain, and he expects to be ready by Opening Day. The Tigers plan to use Sheffield mainly as a DH, which should keep him from risking further injury in the field. If Sheffield is healthy for a full season, 30 home runs is not out of reach. Sheffield still has good plate discipline, so his batting average should rebound from last year. I’m not certain if he’ll steal 22 bases again, which were his most since 1990, but double-digit steals should be attainable.

The Also-Rans
Troost could easily keep Mariano Rivera over Saito, as his 9.34 K/9 last year was his highest since 1996, and his 6.17 K/BB was his best since 2003. But his .248 BAA was his highest since his first year in the league. Rivera is still a good closer, but I like Saito just a little bit more for next year. Carlos Zambrano was a top-ten pitcher in 2006, but he was barely worthy of the top-30 last year. Both his K/9 and K/BB rates decreased and it’s possible that the 215 innings he’s averaged over the past five seasons have sapped his effectiveness. He won’t be a top-ten pitcher if he can’t limit his walks. Jorge Posada could be a good keeper option at catcher if because of the scarcity of the position, but Troost could probably draft him again in the middle rounds if he wanted. Jeff Kent is another reliable, aging player who Troost could pick up later in the draft. Conor Jackson hasn’t shown that he’s ready to hit 25+ home runs, so he should be relegated to the end of the draft with the other good contact, mediocre slugging first basemen. Mike Cameron could provide an undervalued 20/20 season, even though he’s suspended for the first 25 games. His suspension should make it easy to grab him late, which I suggest you do. He’ll hurt your average, but there aren’t too many power/speed options that late in the draft. Nate McLouth is another guy I’ll be watching in spring training, because I think he’s capable of going 20/20 as well if he wins the center field job over Nyjer Morgan. Definitely worth a late round gamble.

Troost, you don't have the strongest group of keepers, but they should be solid this year. You'll need to target some stars entering their primes if you want to contend next year and the year after that.

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Tuesday, February 5, 2008

It's all in the wrist.

Over at The Disabled List, there's an in-depth analysis of Ryan Zimmerman's wrist surgery and how it might affect him during the upcoming season. The creator of The Disabled List offers to provide credible expertise and insight from a fantasy standpoint into the aches and pains that trouble major league players. Check his blog out and send him a question.


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Friday, February 1, 2008

AL Central vs. NL East: How will the move to a new division affect Johan Santana

Mike Bock of the blog Fantasy Hurler had a post on Wednesday analyzing how the move to the NL should affect Johan Santana's production in 2008. You can read that post here.

I agree with him on a few points (there is more offense to be found in the AL than in the NL, the move solidifies Santana's spot in the first round), but I felt that we shouldn't overrate the impact pitching in the NL East as opposed to the AL Central will have on his season. I looked at the two divisions and found them to be fairly comparable in offensive production in 2007. Here is the response to Mike's column that I posted in the comments thread.


"I agree that the offenses in the NL are inferior to the AL, but I don't think we should overestimate is move to the NL East.

Anyways, if you compare the offenses in the NL East and the AL Central from 2007, excluding the Mets and the Twins, to two divisions are actually pretty comparable. Below are each team's runs and OPS totals from 2007, with their league rankings in parentheses.

Runs
NL East
PHI - 892 (2)
ATL - 810 (9)
FLA - 790 (13)
WAS - 673 (30)

AL Central
DET - 887 (3)
CLE - 811 (8)
KC - 706 (27)
CWS - 693 (28)

OPS
NL East
PHI - .812 (2)
FLA - .784 (7)
ATL - .774 (9)
WAS - .715 (28)

AL Central
DET - .802 (4)
CLE - .771 (11)
CWS - .722 (26)
KC - .710 (29)

Now obviously FLA won't have such good offensive totals in 2008 due to the loss of Miguel Cabrera, so we could drop them down to a little below average, and we can raise Detroit a little higher due to adding Cabrera. PHI should be an elite offense again in 2008. ATL has lost Andruw Jones, who had a poor year anyways, but they will now have a full season of Mark Teixeira, so mark a little bit of a gain for ATL. CLE will have better numbers if Hafner has a normal year. The White Sox added Nick Swisher, but that won't make them more than an average offense at best. WAS moves to a more hitter friendly home park in 2008, so that should help a little bit. KC should still be awful in 2008.

As far as park factor goes, MIN was actually a better pitchers' park in 2007 than NY, according to the run-scoring park factors on ESPN. MIN actually hasn't had hitter friendly park factor numbers since 2005.In all, I agree there are some great offenses in the AL Central, but top to bottom, they are only a little better than the ones in the NL East. Santana should be the best pitcher in 2008 and he'll love getting to face the pitcher, but we shouldn't overrate the affect moving to his new division will have if we are comparing offenses."

Mike responded to my comments in a new post yesterday. I've pasted the section of his post that directly dealt with my comments.

"AL Superiority a Mirage?

I love hearing from readers! Ben Westrup, of the awesomely titled I Hate Matt Berry blog, has offered a lengthy explanation as to why I've overrated Johan's move from the AL Central to the NL East. To wit, comparative run production and OPS numbers are either insignificantly different, or slightly in the NL East's favor.

Anecdotally, it seems that many pitchers get hammered moving from the NL to the AL (Schilling, Johnson, etc.). Could that be a mirage?

Let's look at the likely 3-4-5 hitters of the respective teams:

Detroit: M. Cabrera, Sheffield, M. Ordonez
Minnesota: Mauer, Morneau, Delmon Young
Cleveland: Sizemore (he should be), Hafner, V. Martinez,
White Sox: Thome, Konerko, Swisher
Kansas City: Teahen, Sweeney, Gordon? (you've got me here)

Washington: Zimmerman, Dmitri Young, Austin Kearns? (*vomit*)
Florida: Willingham, Hermida?, Jacobs?
Mets: Wright, Delgado, Beltran (Johan won't face this bunch!)
Braves: C. Jones, M. Teixeira, McCann
Phillies: Howard, Utley, Burrell

Notice a pattern?

Two of the four teams that Johan will be frequently taking the mound against next year have hitters in the heart of their order who might not crack Detroit's starting lineup. Instead of Cleveland and Detroit, he gets Florida and Washington. Additionally, the best of Johan's adversaries in the NL East (Howard, Teixeira, Jones) are either lefties or switch hitters; he'll be facing their off-hands.

I ran the league ERA and WHIPs. They were surprisingly close, about a tenth of a run apart in ERA, and only one hundredth of a percentage apart in WHIP. Looking at these lineups, what appears to be happening is that the NL East pitchers are doing more with less talent, probably because they aren't facing hitters nearly as good as those in the AL Central. I'd say that the DH/pitcher affect is being somewhat obscured by the fact that AL Central pitchers are simply better, across the board. Which is probably reflected in the fact that six or seven AL Central SPs (if we include Santana) will be going in the first eight or nine rounds next year, and about two NL East'ers will be.

It's also worth noting that the move to the NL means that vicious AL East (4126 runs scored) has been swapped out for the paltry NL West (3731 runs scored). That's a big differential! Dividing the run differential amongst the various franchises, the AL East teams scored approximately half a run more per game than their NL West counterparts.

I hate looking at wins as a measuring stick for pitchers, but finally, consider this: New York players crossed homeplate 86 more times than Minnesotans last year. With a bit more run support, I doubt we'll see Santana with only 15 wins again this year."

Ultimately we agree that Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, who should be a first round draft pick, and whose new league can only help his stats. But when I look at the AL Central, I just don't see it as being that much better than the NL East. I do think it is better, but I don't think the gap is as big as Mike does. If we discount the team that Santana is leaving and the team he is moving to, we have two poor offenses (K.C. and WAS), two elite offenses (DET and PHI), two above average offenses (CLE and ATL), one average offense (CWS) and one average-below average offense (FLA). I think, based on their production from last year and the players gained and lost, that the AL Central is only a little better than the NL East in terms of offense.

I'd love to hear if you think I'm wrong, right, or whatever.

Either way, check out the good stuff the guys at Fantasy Hurler are posting.

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