Trade Review - Alex Rios/Andrew Bailey for Curtis Granderson

In the first of two trades by the Macafeys prior to the deadline, Tim trades Alex Rios and Andrew Bailey to the Screaming Lemurs for Curtis Granderson. The Lemurs appear to be nearly assured of a playoff spot, while the Macafeys are most likely headed for the consolation bracket.

With Andrew Bailey, the Lemurs now have a third closer to go along with Heath Bell and Leo Nunez. Bailey will be a strong #2 closer behind Bell, and this relief depth will help the Lemurs as they contend for the championship. He should have a handful of saves the rest of the year, and his high strikeout totals will come in handy. The Lemurs lose some power in this trade, but I believe the tradeoff is worth it to get more saves, and Rios's offensive potential should help make up for the loss of Granderson. Rios is only hitting .265 this year, but he has shown in the past that he can be a better hitter than Granderson and he can match Granderson's ability for steals. Rios has yet to have the breakout season that everyone has expected of him, but he is a decent keeper for next year due to his combination of power and speed.

Granderson is having a career year due to his HR and SB totals, and it seems obvious that the Macafeys like him better than Rios. I'm not too high on Granderson due to his inability to hit for high average throughout most of his career, but I think he can be a solid source for HR as he gets older. I don't think we can count on him being a 20/20 guy next year, but he should chip in enough steals to make him a top-20 outfielder. Whether or not he will be an upgrade over Rios in years to come is the main question, as the Macafeys are clearly betting that he will.

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Let's Take Stock of the Surroundings

As it is now the third week of the season, I see no reason why I shouldn't be able to make wild speculations and assumptions based upon the events of the previous two weeks in my Yahoo H2H keeper league.

- After two matchups, The $5 Footlongs have taken a close lead over the Screaming Lemurs, Dissect Yourself, and Naterade.  The Footlongs have gone undefeated in every offensive category except for steals, though they have had middling results in the pitching categories.  Their victories over the Lemurs and the Macafeys have been very close, so it might not be time yet to chisel their name on the season trophy.  They've had incredible starts from Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley and Adam Jones; of the three I feel most confident in Cabrera's and Utley's abilities to maintain a high level of play, but Jones will eventually struggle at some point.  This is a good team (good enough that I put them on top of last week's power rankings), but they could easily be fourth or fifth.

- The Lemurs had a solid 10-0 victory over Summer Fox, but the matchup wasn't as lopsided as it looked.  The Fox came close to beating the Lemurs in Runs and RBI, but having Brandon Phillips and Garrett Atkins combine for 2 Runs and RBI surely didn't help his cause.  Incidentally, with Matsuzaka now on the DL, it seems that Rogstad needs to cut ties with Joey Devine in order to free up a DL spot and add a pitcher that will actually pitch this year.  Devine had surgery on his arm and will be out for the season.

- As far as the teams at the bottom of the standings, I think the Macafeys are most likely to make the playoffs.  They have too much talent to be stuck in the consolation bracket all year.  Order of the Phoenix will need to pitch better if they want to make the playoffs; none of their starters have an ERA under 5.00 to begin the year.  Orc Mischief has had a couple of tough matchups to begin the year, and I don't see them staying in the basement forever, though I don't know if they have the offense to make the playoffs.

- Let's give the Butt Admirals the "Hard Luck Award" for the first two weeks; they have tied in more categories than anyone, including tying in stolen bases each week, despite the fact that they are second in steals overall.  The Admirals would be in 7th if Emilio Bonifacio hadn't started the season so hot, or if Dustin Pedroia had stolen a base last week.

- The Tossers have stolen 6 bases so far this season, last in the league and half the amount that the Admirals and Orc Mischief put up in the first week.  It's possible that they could be the slowest team in the league, but they nearly tied Order of the Phoenix last week.

- Players that are hitting poorly this month that will hit better: Alexei Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Jay Bruce, and Chris Davis.

- Players that are hitting well that will drop off: Nick Swisher, Orlando Hudson, Mike Cameron, and Brandon Inge.

- Free Agents that I'm watching: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, Pedro Feliz, Nick Johnson, Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Davies, David Purcey, Tim Wakefield, Justin Masterson, Anibal Sanchez, and Octavio Dotel.

- Since this is a keeper league, I just wanted to briefly touch on some on some of the rookies performances so far this season.  Since most starters have only made two starts, we'll just look at the hitters.  Cameron Maybin hit his first HR today, but he's still hitting around the Mendoza line.  Colby Rasmus has more walks than strikeouts, which suggests good strike zone judgement on his part, but where's the power?  He only has one extra-base hit so far this year.  Travis Snider is hitting great, but the batting average will probably come down a bit.  The power is legit though, and 25 HR is realistic.  Elvis Andrus is also hitting well, and the stolen bases should come as long as he keeps getting on base.  Dexter Fowler is showing a solid combination of pop and speed.  Jordan Schafer is struggling and striking out way too much; where's his speed?  Based only on these past two weeks, Travis Snider should be the AL Rookie of the Year by a landslide.

- Some prospects that I'm waiting on for this year that no one has on their roster: Matt Gamel, Gordon Beckham, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Carrasco, and Tommy Hanson.    

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Best of the Best Keepers

With each owner’s seven keepers submitted, let’s take a look at the three teams that I think have the top keepers.  I will list their keepers along with their ESPN and Yahoo ranking, and I will give a few thoughts on why I think their teams have the best keepers.

The Dinos

1. Albert Pujols (3,3)

2. Miguel Cabrera (8,7)

3. Tim Lincecum (12,21)

4. Chase Utley (17,22)

5. Carlos Beltran (25,19)

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (62,51)

7. Bobby Abreu (60,94)

Barring injuries, the Dinos should be set for the next few years with this core.  They have last year’s Cy Young and MVP winners, they have one of the best second baseman in the game, and they have a young speedster who stole 50 bases in his first full season.  Their top-five could all be top-20 players this season.  There’s a decent mix of power and speed, along with an ace to head up the rotation.  The only negative is that Chase Utley should miss most of April, but it sounds like he’s progressing rapidly in his return from surgery.

Macafeys

1. David Wright (4,5)

2. Jimmy Rollins (10,12)

3. BJ Upton (41,14)

4. Roy Halladay (24,58)

5. Alex Rios (44,43)

6. Geovany Soto (71,54)

7. Derrek Lee (55,95)

The Macafeys also have a great foundation of young and talented players, with two first-rounders and a staff ace.  This team has a better mix of speed and power than the Dinos, but the Dinos have a deeper top-five and there are some question marks about some of the Macafeys players.  Will Geovany Soto duplicate last year’s success?  Can Alex Rios put his talents for power and speed together for one season?  Will BJ Upton and Jimmy Rollins find their power strokes again?  This team will be good, but how good remains to be seen.

Screaming Lemurs

1. Ryan Braun (6,8)

2. Ian Kinsler (26,11)

3. Carl Crawford (33,28)

4. Brandon Webb (28,46)

5. Cole Hamels (35,45)

6. Aramis Ramirez (42,39)

7. Curtis Granderson (50,42)

The Lemurs are just completely solid from top to bottom.  Though they don’t have the as many elite players as the Dinos or the Macafeys, all of their players are ranked in the top-50 to begin the season.  That’s pretty impressive, and it’s that level of depth that keeps them right behind these two teams.  There’s a lot of speed on this team, but probably not as much power as the other two teams.  Having two aces means they can focus on hitting for the first few rounds.  This team just needs Ian Kinsler to stay healthy and rebound seasons from Carl Crawford and Curtis Granderson to challenge for the championship. 

Let me know what you think.  There’s also a poll if you feel like giving a vote.  I’m going to try to do a mock draft of the first round by Friday, so there’s that to look forward to.  

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Una Vez Mas Keepers - Screaming Lemurs

We’re halfway done with our look at possible keepers for each team in my Yahoo H2H league, now let’s look at our first playoff team, Screaming Lemurs.  The Lemurs finished 6^th last year, but they have a lot of fantasy depth to choose from, so I expect they’ll finish higher this year.  Here’s the roster.

Screaming Lemurs

Rocco Baldelli (Bos - OF)     

Michael Bourn (Hou - OF)    

Ryan Braun (Mil - 3B,OF)     

Mike Cameron (Mil - OF)      

Jorge Cantú (Fla - 1B,3B)      

Carl Crawford (TB - OF)       

Chris Davis (Tex - 1B,3B)     

Jermaine Dye (CWS - OF)     

Curtis Granderson (Det - OF)             

Cristian Guzmán (Was - SS)               

Willie Harris (Was - 2B,3B,OF)        

Ian Kinsler (Tex - 2B)

Víctor Martínez (Cle - C,1B) 

Plácido Polanco (Det - 2B)    

Aramis Ramírez (ChC - 3B)  

Luis Ayala (Min - RP)           

Joba Chamberlain (NYY - SP,RP)    

John Danks (CWS - SP)        

Justin Duchscherer (Oak - SP,RP)     

Frank Francisco (Tex - RP)    

Cole Hamels (Phi - SP)          

Jensen Lewis (Cle - RP)         

Brandon Morrow (Sea - SP,RP)        

Oliver Pérez (NYM - SP)       

Max Scherzer (Ari - SP,RP)   

Salomón Torres (Mil - RP)     

Brandon Webb (Ari - SP)      

Lot of players to choose from, but the guy ranked highest by nearly everyone is Ryan Braun.  Braun is an excellent keeper because he’s talented and he’s just entering his prime.  The only questions are will he improve on last year’s batting average and will he continue to give you 15 steals.  I think the answer is yes.

The next pick is another player in the midst of his prime, Ian Kinsler.  Kinsler has had health problems the past two years, so it’s possible that we may not see his best stats until he’s healthy.  If he can play a full year, expect good power/speed numbers for a second baseman.  I think another 20/20 season is in order.

Carl Crawford also had injury problems last year, which led to a career-low 25 steals.  Expect him to closer to 50 steals this year as he should stay healthy.  He’s never going to hit 20 HR, but he’s in his prime so be happy with the high SB totals.  On average, he’s being drafted in the third round at Mock Draft Central. 

Curtis Granderson is a decent power/speed combo for the outfield position, though I don’t think he’ll improve much on 2007’s numbers.  I think the power is there, but I don’t think he’ll be stealing 30 bases.  He’ll provide good run totals and a decent average, but I think that what we see is what we get with Granderson.

I feel like Aramis Ramirez doesn’t get enough fantasy love.  He’s been a solid performer at third base for most of the decade, knocking in over 100 RBI six out of the past 8 seasons and averaging 29 HR over the same period.  He’s not old yet, only 31 in June, so I think it’s reasonable to expect another 100 RBI season with 30 HR and an average near .300. 

There are quite a few guys that I’d want on my team that I’m forced to leave off, but let’s go with two elite pitchers for our final two spots.  Brandon Webb has 70 Wins over the past 4 years, while averaging 177 Strikeouts over his career.  His ERA has never been higher than 3.59, and it’s 3.24 for his career.  He’ll be 30 in May, so there’s no reason I can think of that he won’t provide solid, elite numbers in 2009.  Cole Hamels proved me wrong last year when I was down on him because of injury issues in 2007 by having a great 2008.  He set career-highs in innings pitched, strikeouts and ERA.  The only worry I have about him is the high amount of innings he pitched in the regular season and the playoffs, more than 70 innings higher than the previous year.  But I think you have to take a chance on an elite talent like this.

A few words on the guys left off: I had a hard time not taking Jermaine Dye because of how solid his power numbers have been the past four years, but I think that this team is already set in the outfield with the three keepers.  Chris Davis is getting a lot of preseason hype because of the 17 HR he hit in 80 games last year, his first season in the league, and while I like him for this year if I can get him in the 8^th round or later as a slugging third baseman, I don’t think he can displace any of the established players listed above.  I think Victor Martinez will bounce back this year, but his value is down and he can be drafted later.  Joba Chamberlain, Max Scherzer, and Brandon Morrow are all talented young pitchers who should start this season in their teams’ rotations, but let’s not anoint them too soon by spending a keeper pick on them.

Let me know what you think.

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