Consistency: The Hallmark of a Head to Head MVP

I've primarily played in Head to Head leagues over the past seven years, and one thing I feel that is lacking in the majority of fantasy analysis is strategy for that format. H2H is a very different beast from the Roto format. Because of the weekly matchups in H2H, it doesn't matter what your players did last week, it only matters what they will do this week. Having players that are consistent and not streaky will help to alleviate any headaches you might have from week to week. Weekly consistency in a player's production is not something I've ever taken into consideration on draft day, but I think it's something we should all be aware of when participating in a H2H league.

I decided to take a look at the top 40 homerun hitters in 2007 to see which ones were either feast or famine from month to month and which ones were steady throughout. I wanted to see how many of these hitters had months of 4 or more homeruns, 5 or more homeruns, and 6 or more homeruns. I chose to look at homeruns because it is one of the few outcomes in which the responsibility solely rests with the hitter. RBI and run totals are too dependent on the rest of the team, and to look at those numbers from month to month wouldn't tell us anything about trends. The same goes for batting average, as opposing defense plays into that as well.

This is more of an informative exercise rather than a predictive one. Players still can contribute in other categories when they're not hitting homeruns and, for the most part, their value should not be predicated on that one category. I'm not suggesting that we reassign value to these hitters based solely on how many homeruns they hit from month to month, but I do think it is good for H2H players to look back at last season to remember how a player ended up with the season totals that he did. I don't have the time or information to do the research it would take to establish the presence, or lack there of, of any trends, so this is purely for informative purposes only.

Here are some players that stood out when I looked at their homerun totals for each month.

- Aramis Ramirez finished with 26 homeruns but he hit more than 5 homeruns in a month only three times. From June-August, Ramirez hit a combined total of 5 homeruns. Ramirez struggled with wrist and knee injuries, which contributed to missed time doing those months, but I'm sure it wasn't fun for H2H owners who basically had no power production from their third baseman for half the season.

- Khalil Greene was a fine source for middle infield power, hitting 27 homeruns last year, 3rd most among all shortstops, but he hit more than 4 homeruns in a month only three times. Greene hit half his homeruns in June and September, but hit only nine homeruns combined in May, July and August. Greene hit a lot of doubles during those months, so his power wasn't gone, but he had homerless streaks of 16, 17, and 23 games, providing zero homerun value in weekly matchups during those time periods.

- Magglio Ordonez had an MVP-caliber season last year, but he had three months where he hit less than four homeruns. More than half his homeruns were hit in May and August; he hit 10 homeruns the rest of the year. May and August were the only months that he hit more than five homeruns in. He carried fantasy teams with his homerun totals in those two months, but he was nearly a non-entity for homers the rest of the time.

- Mark Teixeira has lots of power potential, but he's been streaky the past couple of years. 2007 was no exception; in May, August, and September he combined for 24 homeruns, and he averaged 2 homeruns a month the rest of the year. For H2H owners who drafted him to win homerun matchups, those three months must have been very disappointing.

- Alfonso Soriano was one of the streakiest homerun hitters in the league. He hit 25 of his 33 homeruns in June and September. Soriano would have had more homeruns, but he missed most of August with a torn quad. Discounting August, he still only hit 7 homeruns in April, May and July, likely costing his H2H fantasy owners dearly in that category.

- Matt Holliday also had an MVP-caliber season, hitting 36 homeruns, including 12 in September. But he also had three months where he hit averaged a little more than 3 homeruns a month; not very MVP-like in H2H baseball.

- Jimmy Rollins won the NL MVP, hitting 30 homeruns, and he must have made things easier on H2H owners by hitting 4 or more homeruns in a month five times, and 6 or more homeruns in a month three times. Except for a homerless May, Rollins was exactly the kind of homerun hitter H2H want.

- Chris Young had a similar season to Rollins, hitting 5 or more homeruns in a month three times, and 4 or more homeruns in a month five times.

- Carlos Beltran hit six or more homeruns in a month five times last year, on his way to 33 homeruns for the season.

- Alex Rodriguez, our 2007 homerun champion, was the epitome of consistency. He averaged 9 homeruns a month, and hit less than 7 in a month only once.

As a participant in a H2H league, you would hope that your sluggers projected to hit 25 or more homeruns would give you one homerun a week, otherwise it's that much harder to beat your opponent in that category. Consistency helps a lot, but that's not going to make me shy away from guys like Magglio Ordonez or Mark Teixeira on draft day. Anyone can have a good or bad month; it's important to make the most out of your players' matchups every day in order to maximize your chances of beating your opponent each week.

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Johan Santana Moves to New York

A deal was reached Tuesday to send Johan Santana to the NY Mets, pending a physical and an extension agreement.

A move to the NL and Shea Stadium should only help Santana's value in 2008. The Mets scored the 10th most runs in 2008 with 804, 86 more than Minnesota did, an average of half a run per game. With greater run support, Santana should see more opportunities for wins, though there isn't any obvious bullpen upgrade with his new team. The lack of a DH in his new league could mean a few more strikeouts for Santana in 2008, so numbers comparable to his 2006 season shouldn't be out of reach.
Minnesota received four prospects in return for the best pitcher in baseball, none of whom were New York's best major league-ready pitching or hitting prospects. The only names you should know for 2008 are outfielder Carlos Gomez and righthander Philip Humber, both of whom could start the season in the big leagues. Gomez has speed, with 12 stolen bases in 58 games in the big leagues last year, and 17 stolen bases in AAA as a 21 year-old, also in 2007, so keep an eye on him as a source for SBs if he wins a starting job. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, has a shot to make the rotation in spring training, but he's a longshot as he's only pitched 6 innings above Double A. The fourth player in the deal is righthander Deolis Guerra, ranked by Baseball America as Mets 2nd best prospect. He's 18 with no experience above Single A, so it will be a few years before he's ready to make the team. It doesn't look like Minnesota got the best package they could have for two-time Cy Young winner, though time will tell.
All in all, it looks like Santana is still a first-rounder and should be the first pitcher taken in any draft. Congratulations to the Mets for getting an ace, which strengthens their rotation from top to bottom as a result.

- Keith Law with ESPN analyzes the deal and finds that the Twins gave up a premium player for less than a premium price.

- Tristan Cockroft takes a look at the fantasy ramifications and points out Santana's stellar interleague numbers.

- Rob Neyer says that "Santana will dominate the National League like Greg Maddux did in the mid-1990s and Randy Johnson did five years later."

- Eric Hz of Fake Teams believes that with a full season worth of ABs, Chris Gomez will steal 40+ bases.

- Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus projects Santana's numbers in 2008 with the Mets.

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Keepers Part VII

The next stop in my journey to analyze each team’s keepers in my fantasy baseball league is Jonathan’s Dinos. Jonathan finished 5th last year, and a brief glance at his roster shows that he has a very strong base on which to contend in 2008. Jonathan gained most of his star players through trades, and in the interest of full disclosure, he gained Chase Utley from me in a trade also involving Roy Oswalt and Brian Roberts, a deal I wish I could do over. Anyways, let’s get on with the keepers.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

Dinos

The Hitters
Carlos Beltrán (NYM - OF)
Eric Byrnes (Ari - OF)
Miguel Cabrera (Det - 3B)
J.D. Drew (Bos - OF)
Chone Figgins (LAA - 2B,3B,OF)
Carlos Guillén (Det - 1B,SS)
Ryan Howard (Phi - 1B)
Kenny Lofton (Cle - OF)
Yadier Molina (StL - C)
Justin Morneau (Min - 1B)
Jhonny Peralta (Cle - SS)
Frank Thomas (Tor - Util)
Chase Utley (Phi - 2B)

The Pitchers
Jeremy Accardo (Tor - RP)
Danys Báez (Bal - RP)
Francisco Cordero (Cin - RP)
Ryan Dempster (ChC - RP)
Rich Hill (ChC - SP)
Tim Hudson (Atl - SP)
John Lackey (LAA - SP)
Roy Oswalt (Hou - SP)
Nate Robertson (Det - SP)
Ervin Santana (LAA - SP)
John Smoltz (Atl - SP)
Rick VandenHurk (Fla - SP)


1. Miguel Cabrera
Miguel Cabrera has been one of the most consistent young power hitters over the past four years, so it’s sickening to think that he’ll be only 25 next April. Cabrera has a .313 career batting average, and he’s averaged 31 homeruns a season over the past 4 years. He’s young, he’s consistent, and he’s durable, exactly the type of player you want to build around. And with his new home in Detroit, it’s possible that he might put up some of the best numbers of his career in 2008. Cabrera moves from the NL to the AL, against whose pitchers he’s hit .310 in 268 interleague at bats. It’s a small sample size and probably more indicative of AL pitchers not having an in-depth scouting book compiled on him yet, but it shows that he shouldn’t struggle early on. Cabrera will probably see a few more homeruns hit this year as pitchers won’t be able to pitch around him very often due to the frighteningly potent offense surrounding him. The move to his new stadium should help Cabrera as well, as Detroit was ranked 9th in homerun park factor compared to Florida at 15th. A skilled hitter when he came up, Cabrera has improved against lefties over the past three years (.299 in 2005, .321 in 2006, and .364 in 2007); now he hits them better than he does righties. Cabrera drove the ball well in 2007, with a groundball-to-fly ball ratio of 1.08 compared to 1.19 in 2006. Cabrera should see more RBI opportunities in Detroit, depending on where they hit him, as the hitters in the 1 and 2 spots for Detroit had a better OBP (.362) than Florida’s (.350). Cabrera’s been diligent about being in better shape this year, losing a reported 20 pounds in the off season, so it’s not hard to see him hitting .330/35/120 in 2008.

2. Ryan Howard
Ryan Howard is a homerun beast, hitting 47 in 2007 a year after hitting 58. Howard probably would have had his second straight 50 homerun campaign last year if he hadn’t missed half of May due to injury, so look for him to again make a run at 50 homeruns in 2008. The only question is can he hit .300 again? Howard hit .268 in 2007 after hitting .313 the year before. Part of that large decrease can be attributed to his inability to hit lefties in 2007, only .225 against southpaws as opposed to .279 in 2006. Howard had problems hitting lefties when he first came up in 2005, so it’s possible that he may continue to have trouble against them throughout his career. He did hit .280 in the second half last year, but only because his hit rate increased by three percent, while his contact rate actually dropped. I don’t see Howard hitting .300 next year as long as his contact rate is so low, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit around .275, especially if he can make adjustments against lefties. Anyways, who cares if he only hits .260 if he continues to have one of the best power indexes in the league.

3. Chase Utley
Chase Utley is the top second baseman in the major leagues. He hits for power, average, and provides a nice amount of stolen bases. He plays in a hitter friendly stadium, surrounded by a solid lineup which provides lots of RBI and run scoring opportunities. Utley missed a month in 2007 due to a broken hand, affecting his homerun total. Assuming he’s back to full strength, it shouldn’t be unreasonable to expect 27-30 homeruns. His hit rate was a bit high compared to his historical levels, so a drop in batting average should be expected. Assuming he stays healthy, he should hit .300 with 12-15 stolen bases, and a third consecutive season of 100 runs and RBI. A definite keeper.

4. Carlos Beltran
Carlos Beltran provides a good mix of power and speed, though he has been inconsistent in his production over the past few years and his age means he can’t produce as a top-ten outfielder for much longer. One good piece of news is a report that Carlos Beltran had tissue removed from the patella tendon in both his knees in October. Beltran had been bothered by knee tendonitis in the second half, so hopefully having a healthy pair of legs will mean more stolen bases in 2008. Beltran had a big second half with 23 homeruns, but part of that was due to an increase in his HR/FB rate, up from 10% in the first half to 25% in the second. That HR/FB rate probably won’t hold up, so don’t expect him to improve on 2007’s homerun numbers. His contact rate has decreased over the past three years, so his batting average may start to decline next year. But he plays in a great offense, so run scoring and RBI opportunities should be plentiful. Beltran should produce around .275/30/110 with 20 stolen bases.

5. Justin Morneau
The 2006 AL MVP saw his batting average fall fifty points in 2007. Part of the reason was a reversion to his 2005 ways of not being able to hit lefties. Also part of the reason was a sudden 9% increase in groundballs hit at the expense of line drives. Morneau had a horrible August/September in which he hit .220 with 3 homeruns, after hitting .297 with 28 homeruns. It’s possible that there was an unreported injury that Morneau was playing through, so pay attention during spring training for any news. One sign for hope was an increased walk rate in 2007. Morneau’s expected-BA (xBA) in 2007 was .295, so look for his batting average to bounce back in 2008, but he won’t hit .321 again if he can’t make adjustments against lefties and if he doesn’t start to drive the ball a little better. Morneau is entering his prime years, so 35 homeruns is possible if everything comes together, but be prepared to expect 30 homeruns with a .280-.285 average.

6. Chone Figgins
Chone Figgins had a wonderful 2007 despite only appearing in 115 games due to broken fingers and recurring wrist problems. Figgins still managed to steal 41 bases, and with an improved walk rate and OBP, especially in the second half, he should steal 50-55 bases provided he plays a full season. Figgins had surgery in October to remove the hamate bone in his left wrist, with an expected recovery time of ten weeks, so will have to see how much that will affect him going into spring training. Figgins had an xBA of .283 in 2007 and a contact rate of 40%, well above his historical trend, so a decrease in BA should be expected. Depending on how his wrist holds up, Figgins should be expected to hit .290-.295, and with Torii Hunter providing a little more pop in the lineup, Figgins should see an increase in runs scored; possibly 100 runs in 2008. Great speed, good average, a wide range of position eligibility in 2008 means good keeper value.

7. Carlos Guillen
There were a couple players I thought about picking instead of Guillen, but the main reasons I like him in the last keeper spot are he plays for a team with lots of opportunities for scoring runs and RBI, and he’s moving to first base this season to save his legs but he’ll still have SS eligibility. With the acquisition of Edgar Renteria, Guillen can now play first base and hopefully stay healthy and fresh for the whole season. Guillen had problems throughout the year with sore legs and knees, so hopefully moving to a less strenuous position will me better production at the plate and on the base paths. Guillen still had a solid Speed Index of 112, so 15 stolen bases shouldn’t be out of the question. His hit rate was low in 2007 compared to his historical rates, so a slight batting average adjustment should be forthcoming. A healthy Guillen should be good for .300 average, 20-25 homeruns, and 100+ RBI.

The Also-Rans
It was really almost a tossup between Carlos Guillen and Eric Byrnes for the last spot. Byrnes’ stolen base potential makes him a very attractive pickup, but his career-high BA of .287 was supported by a very high hit rate. Lower batting average means lower OBP, and a lower OBP means less stolen base opportunities. Byrnes doesn’t get many RBI opportunities playing for a team with one of the worst offenses in 2007, and he showed less power last year than in 2006 when he hit 26 homeruns. Byrnes could be 25/25 next year, but he’s more risky than Guillen. Jonathan has a few pitchers that could be considered keepers, especially John Lackey who was the 6th best pitcher in 2007 according to ESPN. Lackey is in his prime, and he greatly improved his control and command, though his dominance has been trending closer to average over the past three years. I left Lackey off because I prefer whenever possible to load up on offense in the first seven innings. John Smoltz defies time year after year, but the older he gets, the harder it will be to recover from injury, and it will be harder mentally for him to play through any discomfort if Atlanta isn’t contending, which they probably won’t be in 2008. Roy Oswalt is Houston’s ace, but his dominance ratio has been slipping for the past four years and his command ratio in 2007 was the worst of his career. Johnny Peralta provides good pop for a middle infielder and an okay average, but that’s about it. Frank Thomas hit 26 homeruns last year, but I wouldn’t bet on him to do it again in 2008 if his slugging percentage and HR/FB rate keep trending downward.

Jonathan, you have a very solid group of keepers of which I’m envious. You have three guys who will all go in the first round next year, and four more who will go in the top-five rounds. You definitely have a nice head start on the rest of us in the league in terms of keeper talent.

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Friday Fantasy News

- Here's an unsettling bit of news courtesy of Eric Karabell at ESPN. Albert Pujols made some comments this week that might make me worried if I was a Pujols owner.

"Pujols said he decided against offseason surgery on his right elbow, a trouble spot for several years, because he would have had to miss a significant portion if not all the 2008 season. Pujols still is unable to straighten his arm, but team doctors concluded that because he plays first base, an operation can be postponed.
He said his elbow bothered him the second half of last season, and said if that happens again he wouldn't try to soldier through it.
'If the same problem is happening this year, I don't think I'm going to play the whole year the same way," Pujols said. "I sacrificed my body.'"

So Pujols can't straighten his arm completely, and if he feels like it's going to be a problem throughout the year, like it was last year, he'll have surgery that could keep him out for "a significant portion if not all the 2008 season." That's the kind of news that makes your sphincter tighten if you were counting on Pujols to carry your team.

Karabell goes on to make the point that we don't know anything until we here more or until we see Pujols miss time during spring training. We have to assume though that Pujols' numbers in 2008 will be closer to his totals in 2007 than in 2006.

So for Pujols owners in 2008 (that's you Brubaker), don't lose hope yet and give in to that below value deal that someone in your league is going to lowball you with. Wait until we hear something else, and then trade Pujols for something close to value if you can.

- On the brighter side, the Denver Post reports that Rockies manager Clint Hurdle wants to manufacture more runs by giving Troy Tulowitzki and Matt Holliday the green light more often. So for Tulowitzki and Holliday owners (like you Micah), you might expect a few more stolen base opportunities for those two this year.

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Fantasy Blogs

One thing I'm trying to do more of is search out quality fantasy baseball blogs.

Obviously there are lots of big sites with top research such as Baseball Prospectus and Baseball HQ, but most of their in depth analysis is held for those who are willing to pay. I want to find the sites that are well-written, insightful, and, most of all, free. I want to see what other people are writing about and how they're writing it. The only way I can improve myself as a writer is to see how established writers are doing it. Because, in the end, I'm not a sabermetrician who has new ways to look at stats, nor am I a guy with sources placed throughout baseball and the fantasy journalism world. I'm just a fan who likes to talk about fantasy baseball. The only way I can get better is to keep doing it and watch for good ideas.

Here's a few blogs I've come across:

http://fantasyleaguebaseball.blogspot.com/

http://www.projectprospect.com/homepage/

http://52in52.wordpress.com/

http://www.rotoauthority.com/

Have you guys come across any cool sites for fantasy baseball analysis?

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Keepers Part VI

We’ve finished with the bottom-half of the league, now let’s take our first look at one of the top-half finishers in 2007, Mark’s Kiwis of Fury!.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.


Kiwis of Fury!

The Hitters
Lance Berkman (Hou - 1B,OF)
Pat Burrell (Phi - OF)
Eric Chávez (Oak - 3B)
Johnny Damon (NYY - OF)
Mark DeRosa (ChC - 1B,2B,3B,OF)
Jim Edmonds (SD - OF)
Mark Ellis (Oak - 2B)
Josh Hamilton (Tex - OF)
Ramón Hernández (Bal - C)
Aubrey Huff (Bal - 1B,3B,OF)
Andruw Jones (LAD - OF)
Gary Matthews Jr. (LAA - OF)
David Ortiz (Bos - 1B)
José Reyes (NYM - SS)
Aaron Rowand (SF - OF)
Freddy Sánchez (Pit - 2B,3B,SS)
Jason Varitek (Bos - C)

The Pitchers
Phil Dumatrait (Pit - SP)
Josh Fogg (Col - SP)
Jason Marquis (ChC - SP)
Jonathan Papelbon (Bos - RP)
Huston Street (Oak - RP)
Kip Wells (Col - SP,RP)
C.J. Wilson (Tex - RP)
Shane Youman (Phi - SP,RP)

1. Jose Reyes
Jose Reyes is an easy one. His speed almost guarantees that you will win the stolen bases category, as he consistently gets you 2-4 stolen bases each week. You could make the case that he’s only the third best shortstop, (with Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins at 1 and 2) but Reyes is a top ten talent with the potential for even greater fantasy success. Reyes has shown more plate patience since his first full season in 2005, raising his walk totals each of the past three years. Part of the reason his batting average dropped twenty percentage points in 2007 from the year before is a regression in batting average against right handed pitching. If he can correct that regression, he should it around .300 next year. Reyes should be good for .300 BA, 15 homeruns, and 65-70 stolen bases, though there is room for upside in those numbers.

2. David Ortiz
David Ortiz has been one of baseball’s most feared hitters over the past four years. As a DH, he clogs up your UT position, but for .300/35HR+/110RBI+ production, he’s worth it. Ortiz spent most of the season bothered by torn cartilage in his knee, but it appears that after having off season surgery, he will be 100% by spring training. I don’t know how much the knee affected his production in 2007, but I’m assuming it was at least a little detrimental, considering his homerun total was his lowest since 2003 and 12 less than what he averaged in three seasons from 2004-2006. It doesn’t look like Big Papi has lost any power though; his slugging percentage was the second highest of his career, and he had the second-most extra base hits of his career. He hit 52 doubles in 2007, 13 more than he averaged from 2005-2006. It may be safe to assume that his knee problems kept him from turning a lot of those line-drive doubles into homeruns. If he is 100% by spring training, look for a rebound in his homerun totals.

3. Lance Berkman
Lance Berkman is a solid first baseman who hits for average and power, but I think it’s a reach to expect him to hit 40 homeruns next year. His walk rates have declined for the past four years, and he doesn’t appear to be driving the ball as well as he used to, as his increased groundball/fly ball ratio shows. His slugging percentage was the lowest of his career, and his 60 extra base hits were one better than his total in 2005, when he appeared in only 132 games. I believe that Berkman’s homerun total from 2007 was affected just a little bit by luck. Despite his low slugging percentage, Berkman’s HR/FB rate was 21%, compared to 17% in 2005, when he arguably showed similar if not better power. It’s possible that Berkman got lucky on a few of those long fly balls, and he could have easily had 30 homeruns as opposed to 34 last year. But Berkman’s poor start also contributed to his low overall totals, so if we take out the first two months of the season, in which he hit .245 and slugged .349, he has a much better stat line of .289/578. It is a smaller sample size, but it is some evidence that he still can produce like a top-5 first baseman. Berkman plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark, though he hit better on the road last year, and the addition of Miguel Tejada should have beneficial effects upon the whole offense, so it’s not unreasonable to expect another solid year from him, but be cautious with your expectations if he again starts slowly.

4. Jonathan Papelbon
Jonathan Papelbon was the fourth-ranked closer for 2007 on ESPN, and there’s a lot to like about him. He plays for a team that wins lots of games, he has a high strikeout rate (12.96 per nine innings, good for first among relievers with more than 25 innings last year), he stifles left-handed hitting to the tune of .100, and he has a coaching staff that is very protective of his arm, making sure not to use him too many times in a row. As he gets used to the workload, injury concerns should lessen, but be thankful that the Red Sox are so interested in protecting their investment. Papelbon should be a lock for 35-40 saves and 70-80 strikeouts in 2008. The only area he could work on is his control, as his 2.32 BB/9 is just average, but because he rarely faces more than a few batters each game, any detrimental effect is lessened.

5. Andruw Jones
It may be because he’s now playing for my favorite team, but I can’t see Andruw Jones not improving his batting average in 2008. Moving to the Dodgers can’t hurt, and being in the NL West should help. Jones hit .290 in 2007 against the Dodgers’ division rivals, as opposed to .220 against Atlanta’s division rivals. It’s true that he only 88 at bats against those NL West teams, which is a small sample size, but Jones has hit .310 in 282 at bats over the past three seasons against those same teams. Jones is obviously comfortable hitting against NL West teams. There isn’t much to like about last season, as Jones couldn’t hit against right-handers or left-handers. I’m not certain why Jones had such a poor season last year. He had two good months, one okay month, and three really poor ones, so consistently good production was a problem. Jones is in his prime and still has all the abilities that made him a good power hitter, so he should rebound next year. Even though Jones hit so poorly, he still managed 94 RBI, which was due to hitting behind three batters who did a great job of getting on base. The Atlanta players who saw the most at bats in the 1-3 spots combined for a stellar .396 OBP. If Jones bats fourth in LA, which seems likely as he’s their main power threat, he’ll have to depend on Rafael Furcal, Juan Pierre and Russ Martin to get on base ahead of him. Those three combined for a .346 OBP in 2007. Jones should produce better this year than last, but he’ll only go as far as the team around him. See here for more thoughts on Andruw Jones.

6. Huston Street
I never like to take closers too early. Though my track record at finding them hasn’t been that good, there are many saves to be found later on in the draft and on the waiver wire due to the closer position being such a volatile situation. That said, I’m recommending that Mark keep Huston Street due to the fact that it’s either him or Pat Burrell. Anyways, Mark likes to have a few top closers due to his propensity for streaming pitchers, and Street could definitely be a top closer in 2008 if he stays healthy. Street wasn’t able to stay healthy in 2007, missing two months in the first half due to nerve irritation in his pitching elbow. Street came back from the injury and, despite starting slowly, held opponents to a .211 average and struck out 43 batters in 32 innings. Street’s young and pitches very well, so a solid season with 25+ saves should be in order, but watch out for a change of scenery for Street. Oakland is in rebuilding mode, and the San Francisco Chronicle speculates that some of their recent acquisitions suggest they may be looking to move Street sometime this season. A situation where Street’s bullpen role is less clearly defined would be detrimental to his fantasy value. Even if Street stays in Oakland, his save opportunities will be limited due to the team’s lack of talent this year.

7. Johnny Damon
I’m going with Johnny Damon for the last spot, because otherwise it’s players past their prime (Eric Chavez, Jason Varitek, Pat Burrell), guys coming off an out-of-nowhere peak season (Aaron Rowand), or guys with risky/no track record (Josh Hamilton). At least Damon is in a good offense with a park perfectly suited to maximize what power he has, and he offers decent production in a few categories. The only problem is staying healthy as he gets older; Damon dealt with back problems throughout the year, forcing the Yankees to find time for him at DH. Damon’s BA and OBP have declined over the past three years, and it’s unlikely that he’ll have a repeat of 2006, but I could see him hitting 15 homeruns with 20 stolen bases, assuming he stays healthy enough to get 600 at bats.

The Also-Rans
Josh Hamilton is definitely someone to take a flyer on in the middle to late rounds. If he’s healthy, and he stays clear of any recurring off-field issues, he could have a great year in Texas. He’s risky because it’s almost impossible to know what he’ll do next year. He was out of baseball due to some extreme circumstances for a few years, but he was a number one overall pick this decade. He showed a lot of talent in about half a season, but can he maintain it when he’s faced with the grind of an entire season? The risk keeps him off the list, but he’s someone to think about. Pat Burrell has a lot of pop, but he hasn’t had more than 500 at bats since 2005. A great player to have if he can provide a full season’s worth of at bats, but let’s see him do that first before making him a keeper. Jason Varitek is reaching the end of the road, but he’ll still provide good production at the catcher position if he can provide a season somewhere between 2007’s and 2005’s stats, though the drop off will probably come quickly for him. Aaron Rowand had a career year in a great offense in a hitter’s park in 2007. Now he’s in San Francisco in a terrible offense in a pitcher’s park; he’s probably going to see his stats decline this year. Gary Matthews, Jr. could be a 20/20 guy next year, but since he’s never hit 20 home runs or stolen 20 bases in a season, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Mark, you have some very solid keepers at the top of the list, but most are aging. Next year might be a good time to start getting younger.

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Keepers Part V

Okay, we’ve got a surprise for you today as we present two keeper analyses for the price of one. First up is Rogstad’s Summer Fox Turbo. Rogstad finished last in the playoffs, so he’ll be picking 6th in the draft. Rogstad built his team around speed, but was done in by the twin implosions of Jason Bay and Scott Posednik.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

Summer Fox Turbo

The Hitters
Jason Bay (Pit - OF)
Hank Blalock (Tex - 3B)
Adrián Béltre (Sea - 3B)
Brian Giles (SD - OF)
Ken Griffey Jr. (Cin - OF)
Kenji Johjima (Sea - C)
Jacque Jones (Det - OF)
Paul Konerko (CWS - 1B)
Felipe López (Was - 2B,SS)
Melvin Mora (Bal - 3B)
Corey Patterson (Bal - OF)
Brandon Phillips (Cin - 2B)
Scott Podsednik (CWS - OF)
Plácido Polanco (Det - 2B)
Édgar Rentería (Det - SS)
Ichiro Suzuki (Sea - OF)

The Pitchers
Boof Bonser (Min - SP)
Fausto Carmona (Cle - SP,RP)
Lenny DiNardo (Oak - SP,RP)
Liván Hernández (Ari - SP)
Jason Isringhausen (StL - RP)
Todd Jones (Det - RP)
Brad Lidge (Phi - RP)
Jamie Moyer (Phi - SP)
B.J. Ryan (Tor - RP)
Billy Wagner (NYM - RP)
David Wells (LAD - SP)


1. Ichiro Suzuki
Ichiro put together one of his normal campaigns in 2007: 200+ hits, 30+ stolen bases, and a high batting average. Chances are he’ll do the same in 2008, but there are some indicators that age is catching up with him. Ichiro is a high-energy player whose legs complement a keen eye and a quick bat. At 34, he can only get slower and he appeared to wear down in the second half last season. His slugging percentage and on-base percentage dropped a combined .111 points, and his homerun-to-fly ball ratio dipped by six percent, which is a lot considering his first half hr/f ratio was 7%. Ichiro also made less contact in the second half. This is not to say Ichiro won’t have a great 2008, it just means the odds are against him having a better season than last year. Despite that, his high average and large quantity of at-bats means he’ll carry your team’s BA, and his stolen base and runs stats aren't bad to have either.

2. Paul Konerko
Paul Konerko had a decent year for power last year, but his batting average and overall performance suffered from a little bit of bad luck. Konerko’s contact rate was in line with his normal numbers from the past few years, but his hit rate was only 27% compared to 33% in the year before. Konerko actually managed to raise his contact rate by 5% in the second half of the season, but his hit rate went down by 1% in that half. To put it simply, Konerko was getting the bat on the ball, but he wasn’t getting it by the defense. Suffice it to say, Konerko’s hitting ability shows that his batting average should rebound in 2008, providing he has a little bit better luck. One stat to be wary of is his .244 batting average against right-handers last year, a very startling drop from .310 the year before. Nevertheless, Konerko showed very good power in the second half, especially an improved homerun/fly ball ratio. Konerko should hit 30-35 homeruns with an improved batting average in 2008. Look for him to get a few more RBI with the addition of on base machine Nick Swisher ahead of him in the lineup.

3. Jason Bay
I look at Jason Bay’s 2007 stats and have to wonder if there was some nagging injury he was suffering from that he and/or the team wasn’t telling anyone about. His stolen base production dropped dramatically, and so did his power. He showed less patience as well, with a 10% walk rate, 5% lower than the year before. I’m not too worried about his batting average for next year; it seems that he had a bit of bad luck in 2007 as his contact rates were within his normal levels but the percentage of balls batted into play that went for hits was very low for his established norms. His batting average should rebound in 2008 as it’s more than likely that his hit rate last year was a fluke. Bay really struggled against left-handed pitching, being held to a .227 average against them, seventy-one points lower than last year’s average. Bay is still young, and he still has the same skills he showed the past three years, so while he probably won’t be a 20/20 man next year, he’s likely to revert to his previous averages.

4. Adrian Beltre
What I like about Adrian Beltre’s stats over the past three seasons, is that his batting average and slugging percentage have increased every year. Part of that is an increased ability to hit right-handed pitching (.249 in 2005, .264 in 2006, and .274 in 2007). It’s also nice to see him running a bit more often. He might never hit 40+ homeruns, or hit .334 like he did in 2004, but it’s not hard to see him hitting 30 homeruns next year with 15 stolen bases. As a player with good skills in his prime, I think Beltre will provide good value next year as a third baseman.

5. Brandon Phillips
Brandon Phillips had a great year in 2007; about as good as you could ask for from a middle infielder. He’s shown the ability to make good contact at the plate over the past two years, he displayed consistent power throughout the year, and he has a good line drive stroke. He’s young enough that his speed shouldn’t diminish in the next few years, but the one thing that I’m worried about hindering his stolen base totals is his low OBP, which was .321 over the past two seasons. I’ve said it before, but the likelihood of stealing a lot of bases over the course of the season diminishes if you can’t get on base at a consistent rate. If he shows a bit more patience and raises that walk rate, we will see another 30/30 season again, but that depends on him being able to change his approach at the plate. Phillips should approach his 2007 totals next year, with an average around .280, 25 homeruns and 25+ stolen bases.

6. Fausto Carmona
I’m not a huge Fausto Carmona fan, but there’s definitely a lot to like about his numbers from 2007, especially his 6.7 K/9 in the second half and his ability to keep the ball on the ground. What I don’t like is the huge increase in innings pitched from the year before. By improving his strikeout rate every month, Carmona showed that he could make adjustments in order to compete at this level. With a groundball rate of 64%, he’s up there with extreme groundball-pitcher, Brandon Wood. If he continues to strike out batters at a rate of 6 per nine innings, he’ll be much more than a Chien-Ming Wang. Watch to see if they limit his pitch count per game in the first half, otherwise he may have a second-half collapse due to fatigue.

7. Edgar Renteria
Edgar Renteria had a good year in 2007, despite missing almost all of August due to spraining his right ankle twice. He rebounded from the injury to hit .310 in September, but he only attempted one stolen base. As he gets older, injuries like these will be more likely to happen, and they’ll be more likely to keep him from running as much. Renteria might get the green light more often in Detroit (they attempted 39 more stolen bases than Atlanta last year, but a lot of that was due to Curtis Granderson’s speed at the top of the lineup), but not if he bats in the number two spot in that lineup, ahead of a modern-day Murderer’s Row of Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, and Carlos Guillen. Placido Polanco has had a lock on the second spot for the past two years, so Renteria may have to bat sixth or lower. This could mean an increase in RBI, and he may get to run more from that spot in the lineup. Either way, Renteria will score runs in that potent offense. He probably won’t sustain 2007’s batting average, but he may pass 2007’s homerun total, as his new home his more conducive to homeruns than Turner Field was in 2007. Renteria probably could have matched 2006’s power totals if he had stayed healthy, so it’s not unimaginable for him to hit 14 homeruns in 2008.

The Also-Rans

You could argue that Ken Griffey Jr. belongs on this list over Renteria, but it’s hard to see him staying healthy enough to get enough at bats to hit 30 homeruns again. Each year he gets older, the harder it is for him to stay healthy, and his homerun per fly ball rate has decreased over the past three years. It shouldn’t be hard to find a younger outfielder who hits .270 with 25 homeruns or more to replace Griffey. Corey Patterson has a lot of value in his legs, but it doesn’t look like a repeat of 2004’s 24 homeruns is likely, and he doesn’t get on base well enough to consistently be able to exploit his stolen base ability. Watch out where he signs, because the right situation and team could increase his value for 2008. Hank Blalock is still young enough to find his power stroke from 2003-2005, but with his struggles and injuries over the last two years, I wouldn’t bet on it. Kenji Johjima is a solid option at catcher; he has decent power and hits for good average. Draft him, or a comparable option, in the middle rounds, but don’t reach for him with your top seven keepers. Felipe Lopez is an intriguing stolen base option, as it would be nice to see what he could do given the proper playing time and the right situation, but stay away from him right now, as early reports from Washington have him battling for playing time with fantasy dud Christian Guzman. Placido Polanco has fantasy value in his ability to hit for average and score runs due to the offense behind him, but I like my keepers to produce in more than just a couple categories; Polanco doesn’t run much, and he’s only had more than 550 at bats twice in his career. Most of Rogstad’s closers are injury risks (but then how many closers aren’t?), and I think you could find comparable value, if not better, through the draft. Billy Wagner is an option; he has a great K/9 ratio, but watch out for inconsistency due to fatigue in 2008. Wagner had a horrible August in which opposing batters hit .375 off him. Wagner complained of a “dead arm”, so watch out for any recurring arm issues.

Rogstad, you’ve got some work to do in strengthening your team, but you can do that through smart drafting.

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Keepers Part IV

Next in our series, we have Kimball’s team, with one of the league’s more memorable names, the Butt Admirals. I've most impressed so far by the Admirals' collection of talent. Very strong and deep pitching staff, and a well-balanced group of offensive keepers.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.


The Butt Admirals

The Hitters
Jason Bartlett (TB - SS)
Coco Crisp (Bos - OF)
David DeJesús (KC - OF)
Prince Fielder (Mil - 1B)
Vladimir Guerrero (LAA - OF)
Orlando Hudson (Ari - 2B)
Mike Lamb (Min - 1B,3B)
Bengie Molina (SF - C)
Richie Sexson (Sea - 1B)
Grady Sizemore (Cle - OF)
Nick Swisher (CWS - 1B,OF)
Willy Taveras (Col - OF)
Rickie Weeks (Mil - 2B)
Ty Wigginton (Hou - 1B,2B,3B,OF)

The Pitchers
Josh Beckett (Bos - SP)
Joe Blanton (Oak - SP)
Chris Capuano (Mil - SP)
Roy Halladay (Tor - SP)
Aaron Harang (Cin - SP)
Dan Haren (Ari - SP)
Noah Lowry (SF - SP)
John Maine (NYM - SP)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos - SP)
Gil Meche (KC - SP)
Brad Penny (LAD - SP)

1. Prince Fielder
There’s a lot to like about Prince Fielder’s 2007 season, even aside from the 50 homeruns. He took more walks this year, struck out a little less, and drove the ball a bit better, as seen by his .80 groundball/flyball rate, an improvement of .32 over last year. He’s surrounded by a solid offense in a good hitters’ park, and there’s no reason to assume that he can’t approach this year’s numbers in 2008. It would be nice if he could repeat 2006’s mark of 7 stolen bases, but with his weight, it’s probably not going to happen.

2. Vladimir Guerrero
He’s getting more brittle every year, doesn’t seem to run as much anymore, and he had his lowest slugging percentage since his rookie year, but Vladimir Guerrero is still one of the more feared sluggers in the game. His OBP was .12 points over his career high, and the 125 RBI he had were the third-highest total in his career. He might not hit 35 homeruns next year, but he’s in an offense with lots of RBI capabilities, and he still has the ability to hit for high average. He is a very strong candidate to be a top ten outfielder next year.

3. Grady Sizemore
Grady Sizemore has the talent to be a 30/30 man, and it could happen next year. I wouldn’t count on it, but it is within his ceiling. Though his batting average took a thirteen point dip from 2006, he set a career high with 101 walks, tied for tenth in the league. He also set a career high with 33 stolen bases. He’s a better hitter than his .277 batting average this year, and as long as he keeps getting on base, which he does almost forty percent of the time, he’ll keep stealing bases. One stat of note which might not necessarily have any relevance from a fantasy standpoint: Sizemore doesn’t seem to be that good of a leadoff hitter, hitting .249 this year when leading off an inning.

4. Josh Beckett
Josh Beckett rebounded from a poor AL debut in 2006 to leading the AL in Wins this year. How’d he lower his ERA by 1.74 runs in his second year with Boston? By cutting down on his walks and his wild pitches. In 2006, he nearly doubled his career-high in wild pitches with 11, compared to a career-low 3 wild pitches in 2007. Beckett also hit a career-high 10 batters, as opposed to 5 in 2007, his lowest since 2003, and he posted a career-low 40 walks, 34 less than in 2006. It seems that Beckett has adjusted to the new league and his new team, and should continue to dominate. He likely will see a rise in his WHIP as his K/BB is too high to sustain, but look for him to enjoy another Cy Young worthy season. One encouraging stat was his 1.20 ERA in 30 postseason innings, which, coupled with his second 200-plus inning season, shows that he’s healthy enough to compete at a high level all season.

5. Dan Haren
Dan Haren was the 9th best starting pitcher in 2007 according to ESPN’s Player Rater. He’s in the NL now, playing for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and pitching in a more hitter-friendly park than his old home in Oakland. Chase Field in Arizona was 11th in HR rate last year at 1.112, while Oakland was 25th with a rate of 0.786. Haren will probably give up a few more home runs in 2008 due to his propensity for fly balls and his new park’s conduciveness to turning fly balls into home runs, but the lack of an opposing DH and the unfamiliarity the league’s hitters will have with him will most likely cancel out any negative affects Chase Field might have on his performance. It will also help that he’s pitching in the NL West, which has three pitching-friendly parks and possibly the major league’s worst offense in San Francisco. Haren’s K/9 has been trending upwards over the last three full seasons, but his BB/9 took a step back in 2007. What’s troubling is how hittable Haren was in the second half last year. His opponent’s batting average was 93 points higher than the first half, and he only completed seven innings in a game twice in the second half. He showed a similar trend in 2006, so watch out for signs of a second half collapse. Haren has the talent to be a top 3 NL starter.

6. Aaron Harang
Normally I would never recommend keeping three pitchers, but if you have the opportunity to anchor your rotation with three of the top ten pitchers from 2007, you have to strongly consider it. What I like about Aaron Harang, and this applies to Haren and Beckett, is how relatively risk-free they are. (I say “relatively” because no pitcher can be considered risk-free in regards to injuries.) Beckett is the only one who’s had any kind of injury track record, but he’s been able to pitch 200 innings per season for the last two years. Harang has averaged 226 innings and 199 strikeouts the past three years, and it seems likely, barring injury, that he’ll be able to repeat those numbers in 2008. His command is coming along nicely, as there’s been a distinct upwards trend in his K/BB ratios. He might regress a little from last year’s K/BB ratio of 4.19, but he is a dominant strikethrower who showed good control last year. He pitches in one of the easier parks to hit homeruns in, but he does well in limiting those with a HR/9 ratio of 1.16 at home. Harang actually pitches better at home than on the road. Just say a prayer that Cincinnati’s bullpen gets better; they had a 5.10 ERA last year, 4th worst in MLB.

7. Rickie Weeks
I wavered between a couple players at this point, but I had to pick Rickie Weeks for the last spot because of his mix of speed and power, and the scarcity of quality fantasy production at his position. After being sent down to AAA for ten days in August, Weeks came back having obviously learned something. He was tied for 4th in home runs hit during the second half among 2B’s, doing it in 100 less AB’s than everyone else. He took more walks, including 26 in September, which was more than he took in the entire first half. He’ll need to build upon these numbers to be a great fantasy talent, especially in getting on-base, because a sub-.400 OBP will not readily lend itself to high stolen base totals. He has struggled with injuries the past couple of years, including a sore wrist that bothered him in 2007, so watch out for reports of nagging injuries. Weeks is in a great offense, so he should score a lot of runs, but his numbers as a leadoff hitter have not been great so far. This could be a breakout year for him based upon his second half adjustments.

The Also-Rans
It was very hard to leave a couple players off of this list. The trade to Chicago should only help Nick Swisher’s power totals, but he still doesn’t make enough contact to enable a high BA, despite his patience at the plate. You could easily make the case that Swisher belongs on the list instead of one of the pitchers, but I’m not that sold him hitting more than 30 homeruns next year. Willy Taveras is a player I really like; he’s in a great offense, and I feel he’s made improvements in getting on-base. Taveras could have stolen 50 bases in 2007 if he hadn’t missed a month of the season due to injuries. If it falls together, Taveras could hit .300, with 100+ runs and 50 stolen bases. Other pitchers that one might consider keeping: Roy Halladay, Joe Blanton, Brad Penny, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Chris Capuano. Kimball, you really had a solid pitching staff last year. Kudos on that.

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