The Holiday Blog Dump of 2007

So it's been awhile since my last post; I've found it hard to find the time to sit down and write anything with all of the holiday preparations to be done this month. I also had strep throat this month, which made me not want to do anything for about a week. Anyways, let's see how much I can get done today. I've a feeling that there won't be too much fantasy analysis, but bear with me. Also, I'm planning on doing the next part of my keeper series sometime in the next week, so keep checking. Here we go.

Let's see, what to talk about. We had a blockbuster trade, a few minor moves, one big-name pitcher that stayed put (for now), a falling out between A-Rod and his agent, anything else? That's about it for big news this month, right? Nothing else except . . .

Oh yeah, that.

Even though I’d rather not, I feel somewhat compelled to discuss it. Of course by “it”, I’m referring to the news story that won’t go away, the Mitchell Report.

The Mitchell Report has released the names of 80 or more baseball players connected or implicated in the use of performance enhancing drugs (or PEDs as all the cool kids are calling them.) Most of them are minor, such as F.P. Santangelo and Glenallen Hill, but there are some All-Stars, including future Hall-of-Famer Roger Clemens. A lot of the players are implicated in “he said, she said” statements by trainer Brian McNamee and steroid supplier Kirk Radomski, but not all accusations have been supported with corroborating evidence. Here’s a convenient list of players named in the report and why.

What do I feel about the report’s findings? What was my first reaction?

Nothing. It didn’t bother me one bit.

It didn’t bother me to find out that Clemens may have injected Winstrol into his buttocks with the help of trainer McNamee.

It doesn’t bother me that former and current stars like Mo Vaughn, Kevin Brown, Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi, Troy Glaus, and Gary Sheffield may have used or are suspected of having used performance enhancing drugs. To be honest, you could accuse anyone from the last twenty years and it wouldn’t surprise me. (Though for some reason I think I’d be horrified to know if Shawn Green used steroids. Just can’t imagine him doing it.)

It doesn’t bother me that former Dodgers catcher and fan-favorite Paul LoDuca may have introduced Dodgers players such as Eric Gagne, Kevin Brown, Todd Hundley, Matt Herges and others to Radomski, and helped them order supplies of HGH.

It doesn’t bother me that the 80 odd names supplied in this report are definitely just the tip of the iceberg for a sport that has looked the other way for almost two decades.

This won’t affect how I feel about the players named. LoDuca is still the scrappy team leader I remember. Gagne will still be “Game Over” to me. Clemens is still a great pitcher who deserves to go to the Hall of Fame. This does not change how I view baseball for the last two decades. Nor should it change anything for anyone else. And it won’t. Baseball will survive, and the game will move on.

This is not to say that I condone the use of steroids. I don’t, and I never will. I hope that this leads to stringent testing rules and I look forward to the day when I can (almost) confidently state that game is steroid-free. As far as the history and sanctity of the game, I will not look at the stats of the so-called Steroid Era as cheap or sullied. I will take into account the environment of the game, as I do when examining the pitching dominated years of the sixties and seventies, or the deadball era of the early 1900s. I will take to the records of the nineties with a grain of salt, as I do with Cy Young’s 511 career wins. They are records set in different times, in different environments. The environment of the Steroid Era just happened to be conducive to enhancing your performance pharmaceutically, conducive on all levels of the sport.

It’s the fact that it appears to have been an incredibly widespread and open secret throughout major league baseball that keeps me from vilifying the players named in the report. I sympathize with them more for feeling pressured to compete at a higher level and to come back from injuries quicker and stronger, and heck if the competition is using it and the guy fighting for your job is using it, why not? The reason I don’t view it as cheating is that major league baseball seems to have condoned it. They made money off of it. Everyone loved the long ball, and Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire saved the sport in its post-strike years with a homerun race fueled by andro and other performance enhancing drugs. Everyone looked the other way when guys showed up in spring training with 15-20 extra pounds of muscle. People, including the press, joked about it, but no one at the upper levels of MLB management seemed willing to investigate it. At least not until Jose Canseco came out with his book, saying that around 85% of players in the game were juicing, soon followed by the BALCO case which pointed the fingers at Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, and Gary Sheffield.

I’m just waiting for the steroid furor to subside, and for MLB to clean up the game. Everything else is just noise to me.

Curt Schilling believes that if Clemens is guilty, he should forfeit the four Cy Young awards he’s won since 1997.
I don’t agree with this for a lot of the reasons previously stated. Schilling says that the awards should go to the runners-up, but how can we know that they weren’t on steroids as well. It seems we have to assume that everyone was on steroids, and if that’s the case, then Clemens was the best pitcher in an era dominated by cheating.

ESPN’s Jayson Stark says that the case against Clemens isn’t airtight and wouldn’t hold up in court without further corroborating evidence.

Andy Pettite admits to using HGH once in 2002. Brian Roberts also admits to using steroids once in 2003. ESPN’s writers call such accusations “a joke” and demand for them to come clean.
I’m all for everyone coming clean, but one thing that annoys me is the “holier than thou” attitude that seems to frame every sportswriters’ articles these days. Look kids, it’s a race to see who’s the most morally outraged.

Here’s LA Times’ columnist Bill Plaschke taking the lead.

Uh-oh, here’s a team effort from various Hall of Fame voters.

Plaschke’s colleague at the Times, Helen Elliot, gets the first moral judgment on Dodgers’ owner Frank McCourt’s recent signing.

Oh, incredible, Plaschke pulls back into the lead with an article bemoaning the Dodgers’ “sullied history”. (Extra points for the use of the word sullied.)

· Here’s a good article from Buster Olney’s blog examining the lack of critical insight of the Mitchell Report. He makes some good points about what the commissioner’s office should have done over the last decade and why the report may have wrongly tarnished some players’ images.

· TJ Simers sums up my thoughts nicely. Hopefully I won’t feel the need to write anything else about steroids for a long time.

· Detroit makes a huge trade with Florida, dealing two highly prized prospects for young uber-stud Miguel Cabrera and pitcher Dontrelle Willis. Cabrera will slot nicely into the middle of Detroit’s order, giving them one of the most impressive in major league baseball. Willis strengthens the back of their rotation behind Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander and Kenny Rogers. The Tigers signed Willis to a three-year extension worth $29 million, less than what the Mariners gave Carlos Silva, who has a career 4.31 ERA. I like the Willis contract, because even though he’s moving to a tougher league, I think being near the back of the rotation will take the pressure off him and allow him to focus on returning to the pitcher he was two years ago. I don’t think he’ll ever be more than a middle of the rotation type guy, but his upside and talent makes him worth the risk.

Rob Neyer disagrees, and has the stats to back it up.

· Dodgers sign Japanese pitcher Hiroki Kuroda to a three-year deal worth $35.3 million. While the market for starting pitching may have forced them to overpay, it appears they’ve found a solid pitcher to start behind Chad Billingsley, Brad Penny, and Derek Lowe. The main thing I don’t like about the deal is that they’ll be paying him $13 million to pitch when he’s 35 years old. Hopefully he’s more Hideo Nomo than Kaz Ishii.

Jim Allen likes the deal, while Tristan Cockcroft is less excited from a fantasy standpoint.

· Eric Karabell has a nice blog post on players to avoid for next year. Not to spoil it for you, but he includes Carlos Pena (who I advised Brubaker not to keep over Garrett Atkins), Hunter Pence, and Ryan Zimmerman, two inclusions that are disconcerting to myself as I want to keep both of them.

Since we’re on the subject of players to avoid, here’s a brief list of pitchers that I think will be overrated next year. All four pitchers had sub-4.00 ERA’s in 2007, but don’t pick them too early. They throw a lot of pitches and walk too many to be efficient.
1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Tom Gorzelanny
3. Matt Cain
4. Orlando Hernandez

· One non-fantasy related item before I go. I caught VH1’s 1oo Greatest Songs of the 90’s this weekend. Some thoughts: the music of the 90’s is not nearly as enjoyable as the music of the 80’s. With a few exceptions in the first hour, nearly every song on the 100 Greatest Songs of the 80’s countdown will get you fired up and pumped. Not so for the 90’s countdown; everything’s a lot more acoustic and mellow, and a large amount of music influenced by the artists of Lillith Fair. Of course there’s the few grunge hits, poppy boy band hits, rap hits and metal hits on the list, but most of it is angsty and angry but in the softer way. When they got to the end of the countdown, which was topped of course by Nirvana’s “Smells Like Teen Spirit”, I was livid with the omissions. No Rage Against the Machine? No Smashing Pumpkins? No Foo Fighters, Sublime, No Doubt, or Dave Matthews? Sure Canadian’s answer to Shaggy makes the list with fucking “Informer”, but no “Bullet With Butterfly Wings” or “Everlong”? These were great bands with multiple hits throughout the 90’s. Plus so many bands on this list received only one spot, when they should have had more. Nirvana, Pearl Jam, and Green Day only had one song each on the list? Ridiculous.

· Oh well, there’s always this decade. In nine years, I’ll be watching the members of Sum 41 and Linkin Park on VH1’s special 100 Greatest Songs of the 00’s talk about how great it was when people bought there music. Merry Christmas.

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Andruw Jones gets $36 million from the Dodgers

The Dodgers decide to admit that they overpaid last year for a centerfielder by overpaying for a centerfielder this year. The Dodgers signed centerfielder Andruw Jones to a two year contract worth $36 million. The amazing thing is that despite batting for his worst average since his rookie year, Jones is getting a $4 million-a-year raise. The Dodgers did pay market price, as set by the Torii Hunter contract of $90 million over five years, but they are definitely paying superstar money for an outfielder who's not in the top ten. The Dodgers are getting a bit of a break on this contract though; it is only for two years and Jones's agent Scott Boras had originally wanted $100 million for his client. The Dodgers get Jones in the latter stages of his prime, and they won't be overpaying him when he really starts to decline.

And it does appear as if the decline is just around the corner, as Jones had his worst offensive season in years, though at Jones's worst, he still would have led the Dodgers in homeruns last year. Jones could hit 40 homeruns, though I'm predicting closer to 30, and moving to Dodgers Stadium should have no effect on his offensive numbers, as it had a better park factor for homeruns than Turner Field last year. Jones's batting average was better on the road by fifty points than at home, so there's hope that he can rebound and hit closer to his .263 career average. It's heartening that Jones hit .290 last year against the Dodgers division rivals, including 10 for 26 against the Padres. Jones could rebound as he fights to establish himself for one last big contract; it's not impossible to see him hitting .250 with 30 homeruns and over 100 RBI. The Dodgers finally have a slugger in the middle of their lineup, now all they need to do is somehow package Juan Pierre and Andre Ethier for Erik Bedard and Joe Blanton, though it might take a miracle to make that happen.

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Keepers Part III

Moving on in our keepers series, let's look at the roster for Ted's Gunny Jetloves. Ted's team has a lot of aging veterans, with some stars near the top, but not too much depth to fill the team out. Before we look at which seven I think he should keep, a quick recap of our league's structure:

Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

Gunny Jetloves

Hitters
Craig Biggio (Hou - 2B)
Casey Blake (Cle - 1B,3B,OF)
Orlando Cabrera (CWS - SS)
Chris Duffy (Pit - OF)
Jermaine Dye (CWS - OF)
Pedro Feliz (SF - 3B)
Nomar Garciaparra (LAD - 1B,3B)
Troy Glaus (Tor - 3B,SS)
Luis Gonzalez (LAD - OF)
Geoff Jenkins (Mil - OF)
Derek Jeter (NYY - SS)
Chipper Jones (Atl - 3B)
Joe Mauer (Min - C)
Magglio Ordonez (Det - OF)
Sammy Sosa (Tex - OF)
Brad Wilkerson (Tex - 1B,OF)
Dmitri Young (Was - 1B)

Pitchers
Bronson Arroyo (Cin - SP)
Jeff Francis (Col - SP)
Jeremy Guthrie (Bal - SP,RP)
Greg Maddux (SD - SP)
Hideki Okajima (Bos - RP)
Johan Santana (Min - SP)
Claudio Vargas (Mil - SP,RP)
Carlos Villanueva (Mil - SP,RP
Chien-Ming Wang (NYY - SP)
Jered Weaver (LAA - SP)

1. Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer ended up 6th among all catchers last year on ESPN's player rater, but he has the talent to be top three every year. Mauer's year was hurt by injuries; he appeared in only 109 games, but his numbers compare favorably to his 2005 season and it's not unimaginable that he could have broke into the double-digits for homeruns for the second year in a row. Mauer could still hit 20 homeruns some day, but for right now expect 10-15 with an average around .300. One interesting stat: Mauer hit .342 on the road last year and .248 at home.

2. Johan Santana
Johan Santana is arguably the best pitcher of the past decade. His career ERA is 3.22, and opponents have batted only .221 against him since he first came in the league. Santana is right in the middle of his prime, averaging 245 strikeouts over the past four years, and he's young enough to dominate like that for at least another three years. Santana had a rough second half in 2007, getting lit for an ERA of 4.04, but that number is skewed by a particularly bad September. Despite the high ERA, opponents only hit .236 against Santana after the break. One stat to watch: Santana gave up 33 homeruns last year, third most in the league. Still, Santana will compete in 2008 for the title of best pitcher, and he's definitely one to keep.

3. Derek Jeter
Derek Jeter is often derided in fantasy circles as overrated, but while he isn't a top-five fantasy shortstop, he does provide solid value for his position. He's durable, averaging 639 atbats over the past four seasons. He provides a good batting average, can hit 15 or more home runs, has the ability to steal 15-25 stolen bases, and he scores a lot of runs by playing in a high-powered offense. Derek Jeter might not be a fantasy superstar, but he's a solid multicategorical producer.

4. Chipper Jones
Chipper Jones is someone who I consistently write off, but at the age of 35, Jones put in a season that rivaled some of his best during his prime. Jones always misses a few games each year, he's averaged 122 over the past four seasons, but when he's healthy, he produces. He's slugged close to .600 over the past two years, and even though he'll start the 2008 as a 36 year-old, there's no reason to assume he can't hit 25 or more homeruns with an batting average near .300. His numbers have no where to go but down, but it seems like he has the talent to slow the decline over the next couple of years.

5. Magglio Ordonez
Magglio Ordonez had an incredible MVP-caliber season last year. He hit .363/.434/.595 compared to his career averages of .312/.370/.522. Ordonez is highly unlikely to repeat last year's numbers, and it would be foolish to expect 30 or more homeruns, as it's been a long time since Ordonez last did that. Ordonez is getting older, but he's in a very solid lineup, especially with the addition of Miguel Cabrera, and he shouldn't feel pressed to shoulder all of the offensive burden. One hopeful sign is the patience Ordonez showed at the plate last year; his walks per plate appearance in 2007 was a career high of .112, up from .070 in 2006. Ordonez should easily hit 25 homeruns with an average around .315.

6. Jermaine Dye
Jermaine Dye had a horrible first half last year, batting .214 before the break, but he rebounded nicely in the last two months, hitting .300. He's near the end of his prime, but he does have the talent to hit 30 homeruns, though I would put that number at the high-end of my expectations for next year. His strong finish to the 2007 season hopefully signals a strong 2008; with any luck, he'll hit around .275-.280 next year. Dye is a solid second-tier outfielder and he's not a bad keeper for next year.

7. Troy Glaus
Low-average, high-power has always been Troy Glaus's calling card, but last year represented a significant drop-off in power. Glaus only played in 115 games in 2007, so he could still easily hit 30 homeruns over a full season. Glaus had a good first-half, hitting .277, but a batting average around .250 is more what you should expect. Hopefully the Blue Jays will bat him fifth, where he hit .353 in 102 at bats, as opposed to 4th, where he hit .229 in 175 at bats. There will be streaks, but Glaus is a decent source of power. His inclusion is more a statement of the talent on Ted's team than of Glaus's own.

The Also-Rans
There weren't too many other players I considered keeping. Most of the rest of Ted's hitters are aging former stars like Nomar Garciaparra, Craig Biggio, Geoff Jenkins, and Luis Gonzalez. Chien-Ming Wang is a solid source for WHIP and wins, but he doesn't provide any strikeouts. Jeff Francis is solid across the board, but he's not quite keeper worthy.

All right, time to get back to the weekend. Until next time, stay thirsty my friends.

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Hunter signs with Angels

Taking a break from our look at league keepers, we stop to take a look at a free agent who has actually signed with a new team. Torii Hunter signed a five-year contract worth $90 million dollars to play centerfield for the Angels. That seems reasonable for a market where Mike Lowell gets $12 million a year despite being a year older than Hunter and not nearly as consistent, but the truth is that Hunter was overpaid. The Angels did what they had to do to get the number one centerfielder on the market, but I'm sure they'll regret paying making him an $18 million a year player until he's 37. Let's look at some fantasy ramifications.

Torii Hunter has averaged over the past three years 24 homeruns, 87 RBI, 17 stolen bases, and a .279 batting average, despite only playing 98 games in 2005. It seems reasonable to expect those numbers or better next year with the Angels. He'll probably have more than 20 stolen bases next year due to more stolen base attempts; the Angels attempted 52 more stolen bases as a team last year than the Twins. Hunter's RBI chances should go up as well; the Angels scored 104 more runs than the Twins last year, and, while Orlando Cabrera (who has been traded to the White Sox) accounted for 101 runs last year, their offense should be able to replace his .345 on-base percentage at the top of the order. Hunter also benefits from moving to the AL West; against the Angels' division rivals last year, he hit .333 with three homeruns in 80 at bats. The only division team that seems to have his number is Oakland; Hunter hit .182 against them last year. One stat to note: Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN points at that while Hunter is very good at hitting lefthanded pitching (.314 BA, .356 OBP, .550 SLG), there aren't as many southpaws in the AL West as there are in the AL Central. Read more here.


Hunter's defense in centerfield should be a bit of an improvement over the incumbent, Gary Matthews Jr. Matthews' range factor (2.90) was actually a bit better than Hunter's (2.68) last year, but Hunter's zone rating (.894) was far better than Matthew's (.851). Hunter's zone rating ranked 7th among all centerfielders, while Matthews' ranked 17th.

Hunter's signing allows the Angels to move Gary Matthews Jr. over to leftfield, a likely waste of his defensive talents, but one necesitated by the fact that he has no where else to play, with Garrett Anderson probably at DH and Vladimir Guerrero in right. Having another RBI-man in the middle of the order will allow Matthews to focus on getting on base; Matthews hit .281 when leading off last year and only .240 when hit in the 4th and 5th spots in the lineup, which are traditionally power spots. Batting leadoff, Matthews' OBP was .340, nearly equal to Cabrera's last year; it's not impossible to believe that Matthew could come close to equaling Cabrera's run totals from last year. Matthew's could be a bit of a sleeper next year based on his disappointing season last year and depending on where he hits next year.

The player who loses the most value in 2008 because of this signing is Reggie Willits. Willits was third on the team in OBP with .391, and was second on the team with 27 stolen bases in 430 at bats. Willits provided cheap value last year in runs, batting average and stolen bases, but that value should drop next year as the Angels will struggle to find him playing time in the outfield. Personally, I'd rather play Willits than Matthews; Willits gets on base better and he's more patient. Willits was very productive last year, mainly hitting out of the nine-hole or leadoff, but the only way he'll be productive next year is if he or Matthews is traded.

In fact, it does seem like first-year GM Tony Reagins is stockpiling pieces for a trade. With his acquisition of starting pitcher Jon Garland, Reagins now has a few intriguing outfielders and starting pitchers that could be packaged with a prospect or two in order to land a solid position player, such as Miguel Cabrera and/or Miguel Tejada. I'm predicting more moves to come from Anaheim.

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Keepers Part II

We continue our look at keepers for each team in my Head to Head league, with the consolation championship runner-up The Balls. John's team has a balanced mix of top pitching and top hitting, with some solid options to fill out the rest of his picks with. Let's dive in.

THE BALLS

Hitters:
Moisés Alou (NYM - OF)
Garrett Atkins (Col - 1B,3B)
Milton Bradley (SD - OF)
Robinson Canó (NYY - 2B)
Michael Cuddyer (Min - 1B,OF)
Rajai Davis (SF - OF)
Cliff Floyd (ChC - OF)
Adrián González (SD - 1B)
Khalil Greene (SD - SS)
José Guillén (Sea - OF)
Xavier Nady (Pit - 1B,OF)
Carlos Peña (TB - 1B)
Mike Piazza (Oak - C)
Albert Pujols (StL - 1B)
Hanley Ramírez (Fla - SS)

Pitchers:
Erik Bedard (Bal - SP)
Jeremy Bonderman (Det - SP)
Mark Buehrle (CWS - SP)
Matt Cain (SF - SP)
Roger Clemens (NYY - SP)
Phil Hughes (NYY - SP)
Scott Kazmir (TB - SP)
Ted Lilly (ChC - SP)
Jake Peavy (SD - SP)
Oliver Pérez (NYM - SP)
Chris Young (SD - SP)


1. Albert Pujols
A no-brainer choice, Pujols was the consensus number one draft pick amongst almost everyone last year; despite a 2007 season that was below his standards, Pujols still placed in the top ten for OPS. His power numbers were lacking his normal "oomph", but his batting average was within his normal levels. This is the type of player you build your team around for the next six or seven years.

2. Hanley Ramirez
Another no-brainer, the former NL Rookie of the Year raised his numbers in almost every offensive categories in his second year. Arguably the best hitter at his position, Ramirez is also a major threat on basepaths, stealing 102 bases in 312 games. Only 23, Ramirez could be a dominant fantasy force at his position for the next decade. Even if concerns about his defense force him to the outfield in a few years, he should still be a great asset for any fantasy team.

3. Jake Peavy
One of the more talented pitchers in the league just keeps getting better. Peavy set career highs in wins, strikeouts, and batting average against last year, placing in the top three in each category, including ERA. Peavy has the talent to be the top starting pitcher every year, and while he plays in a great pitcher's park, he's just as good on the road. I don't usually keep pitchers, but if you have one the best pitchers in the National League in his prime, you have to hold on to him.

4. Erik Bedard
Before he was shutdown by the Orioles with a strained oblique muscle, Bedard was making his case to be considered one of the top pitchers in the AL. He compiled 221 strikeouts in 182 innings to go along with a 3.17 ERA, despite the fact that he plays in a tough park for pitchers. The strained oblique doesn't appear to be serious, as Bedard could have been activated a few days before the end of the season, but the Orioles chose to end his season early. Bedard has great talent, and could lead the AL in most of the major pitching categories in 2008.

5. Robinson Cano
Cano's age and the position he plays make him a solid keeper for 2008. He hit his way into the top five for batting average and slugging percentage among all second basemen, and he was the only second baseman besides Chase Utley to make it to the top five for both. The only thing Cano lacks is speed, but he is surrounded by a great offense, and his youth means he could possibly hit as many as 25 homeruns a year in his prime.

6. Garrett Atkins
Okay, here's where it gets tough, as John's team has a few possible options for these last two spots, and they all happen to play a corner infield position. Since John already has Pujols at first base, I'm going to pick Atkins to fill the third base spot. Atkins plays a shallower position, and despite having an OPS lower than Carlos Pena, his mark of .853 was good enough for seventh among all third basemen. Atkins has shown the ability to hit for average and power. He's definitely a product of Coors Field as shown by his .254 average and .446 slugging percentage on the road, but unless the Rockies trade him away to make room for Ian Stewart, he'll continue to have the benefits of his home field. For more of my thoughts on Atkins vs. Pena, see here.

7. Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzalez or Pena, it's basically comes down to your fantasy philosophy. Pena offers more pure power, aided by the fact that he plays in a park much more conducive to hitting, while Gonzalez has shown himself to be a more well-rounded hitter. Basically it comes down to my belief that Pena will not be able hit .280 with 45-plus homeruns in 2008. I think his batting average will regress closer to his career average of .252. Gonzalez can flat out mash, just look at his slugging percentage of .500 or better over the past two years, which he was able to do even though he has to play half his games at cavernous Petco Park. Even when he's not hitting homeruns, Gonzalez can still help you with his batting average.

The Also-Rans
Carlos Pena was hard to keep off this list, but I just don't see him sustaining that batting average. It's more likely that he'll either strikeout, walk, or hit a homerun, two of which are not bad outcomes, but it's unlikely that he'll help your team any other way. At least Gonzalez will be able to drive in runs without relying on hitting homeruns. I know John has Milton Bradley in high regard for what he was able to do for the Padres while healthy, but he'll miss a large portion of the season to his injury suffered bizarrely last year at the hands of Bud Black. Khalil Greene has a lot of pop for a middle infielder, but that's about it; he doesn't have more overall value than Cano, Atkins, or Bedard. Jose Guillen has a lot of talent; keep an eye on where he signs next year as his home park could enhance his value, but otherwise he's still only a fringe keeper.

All in all, this is a good group of keepers, with some great studs both at the plate and on the mound. Next time I'll be back to look at Ted's Gunny Jetloves.

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Keepers, Keepers, Here Come the Keepers

With the offseason in full-swing, and everyone all a-twitter with thoughts of A-Rod and the rest of the free-agents, there will be lots to discuss in the upcoming weeks. I'll be commenting on the notable transactions and their impact to the fantasy world, but while I have some free time, I'll be using this space to discuss who I think each manager in my fantasy league should keep for next year. Now, unless the Dodgers grossly over pay for Miguel Cabrera by giving up Matt Kemp, Andy Laroche, Clayton Kershaw, and Chad Billingsley, without also getting Dontrelle Willis or Dan Uggla in return, I will be posting these picks every couple of days. If the aforemention scenario does occur, I'll probably be driving out to take a fat dump on Ned Colletti's lawn. Let's get on with the picks.

Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. (For those who are unfamiliar with the strategy, streaming is the practice of picking up and starting as many pitchers as you can each day in order to win in the strikeouts and wins categories. This strategy requires good closers to win the saves category, and to offset the often poor ERA and WHIP totals that result.)

I'll be going through each team by draft order for next season. The first is Dissect Yourself, managed by Micah. He holds the first pick by virtue of being the consolation bracket champion.
Here is his roster, followed by my choices and comments:

Hitters
Josh Barfield (Cle - 2B)
Carlos Delgado (NYM - 1B)
Jason Giambi (NYY - 1B)
Todd Helton (Col - 1B)
Matt Holliday (Col - OF)
Raúl Ibañez (Sea - OF)
Austin Kearns (Was - OF)
Juan Pierre (LAD - OF)
Iván Rodríguez (Det - C,1B)
Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF)
Mark Teahen (KC - 1B,3B,OF)
Troy Tulowitzki (Col - SS)
Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B)

Pitchers
Brian Fuentes (Col - RP)
Jon Garland (CWS - SP)
Orlando Hernández (NYM - SP)
Braden Looper (StL - SP,RP)
Mike Mussina (NYY - SP)
Andy Pettitte (NYY - SP)
J.J. Putz (Sea - RP)
C.C. Sabathia (Cle - SP)
Ben Sheets (Mil - SP)
Javier Vázquez (CWS - SP)
Tim Wakefield (Bos - SP)
Dontrelle Willis (Fla - SP)

My Choices:

1. Matt Holliday
Holliday's an easy choice; the MVP candidate set career highs this past season in almost every meaningful offensive category. He'll be 28 when the season starts, right in the middle of his prime. His numbers are helped by playing half his games at Coors, but he's no slouch on the road, slugging .485 and batting .301. He's a borderline first-rounder, and should continue to be a highly productive player for the next few years.

2. Alfonso Soriano
Despite not rivaling last year's numbers, Soriano had another quality season, matching his career high in slugging percentage and almost equaling his career mark in batting average. He hit more than thirty home runs for the fifth time in his career, and his offensive numbers would have been even better if he hadn't missed most of August with an injured right hamstring. Hampered by the injury, he attempted less than thirty stolen bases for only the second time in his career. He's been a 30/30 threat throughout his career and should still have a few highly productive seasons left.

3. Juan Pierre
Juan Pierre may be overrated as a baseball player, but for fantasy owners looking for stolen bases, he's just right. Having Pierre on his team gives Micah a strong competitive edge in the stolen bases category; add in Soriano, and Micah could possibly have one hundred stolen bases between two players. Because of his poor on-base percentage, Pierre might find it harder to steal 50 plus bases as his legs get older, but he does provide a solid batting batting average, which is made more valuable to fantasy owners because of his high number of at bats. An interesting stat: Pierre has more walks than strikeouts in his career. Pierre rounds out a solid outfield for Micah.

4. Troy Tulowitzki
Tulowitzki is another solid keeper; despite his awful stats away from Coors, he is young enough to improve greatly on those numbers. The Rookie of the Year runner-up needs to cut down on his strikeouts, but he has the talent to hit 30 homeruns a year with a solid average. How he does next year without the anonymity of being a rookie will tell a lot about his abilities as a major leaguer.

5. Dan Uggla
Uggla was a top ten second baseman last year, and he could be top five if he can bring his batting average back up to his rookie mark of .282. Even though his batting average fell thirty points from last year, he increased his walk total by twenty. He offers a lot of pop for his position, leading all second basemen in homeruns despite playing in a park not conducive to them. Uggla was a solid infielder, and if he improves on last year's numbers, Micah will have a great middle infield.

6. C.C. Sabathia
Normally I don't advocate keeping pitchers, preferring to find them through the draft and off the waiver wire, but there aren't too many other viable options on Micah's team, and Sabathia was very good last year, rating behind only Jake Peavy on ESPN's player rater. My only concern is the high number of innings he pitched last season, thirty-one more than his career high (not counting 15.1 playoff innings in which he got shelled.) Sabathia could be poised for a letdown next season, but he has improved in strikeouts, walks and ERA over the last four years, showing his maturation into an elite pitcher.

7. J.J. Putz
While I normally don't advocate keeping starting pitchers, I almost never keep closers. Saves is a very volatile category, as is the closer position; over the past three seasons, only four closers have placed in the top ten for saves more than twice, only two have placed in the top five more than once. There are suprises at the top of the saves list each year, and this year was no exception with Jose Valverde and Joe Borowski coming in first and second with more than 45 saves each. Putz had his second season of 35 or more saves, and he was ranked the number one closer on ESPN's player rater. His strikeout rate was down compared to last year, but so was his Batting Average Against, with a ridiculous .153. He is a solid choice for next year.

The Also-Rans

There were a few players who could be considered as keepers for next year, but I just couldn't justify leaving anyone of this least for these guys. Jason Giambi suffered through injuries all last year, resulting in the second-worst OPS of his career. He most likely won't have first-base eligibility next year, relegating him to the Utility spot. At thirty-six his best years appear to be behind him. Carlos Delgado is another aging All-Star that just missed this list; he couldn't crack the top fifteen first basemen on the player rater and it's not that hard to find players at his position who hit 20-25 homeruns with better batting averages. He's not done yet, so keep an eye on him in the draft. Mark Teahen was a touted third base prospect, but he failed to build on last year's power numbers. With Alex Gordon vying for playing time, Teahen will only be OF eligible in 2008, and even repeats his production from 2006, it's hard to justify keeping a .285/20HR hitting outfielder over any of the guys on this list.

So, those are my picks for who Micah should keep. He definitely has a solid and balanced offense, and a good foundation for his pitching staff. He should be very competitive in 2008.

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Hey Look Everybody, It's Joe Torre!

Joe Torre is coming.

L.A.'s response is cautious optimism, if not downright just cautious.

ESPN's response is a bit more pessimistic, and almost virulent.

While I don't share ESPN's negative views, which had the not so subtle air of a knee jerk reaction to the hype surrounding Torre, I don't believe that Torre will lead the Dodgers to the Promised Land unless Frank McCourt and Ned Coletti can provide him with the talent needed to win.

The Dodgers need to strengthen their rotation and they need a power hitter, which gives them something in common with almost every team in the league. They have possible solutions to their rotation needs, but these solutions need to stay healthy, need time, or need a miracle. The Dodgers have talent, but it is mostly raw, and in some cases, overdone; Torre alone will not be able to drag them into the postseason .

Still, I want to leave you with my unwavering belief about the Joe Torre hire: This is a good thing for Dodger baseball. This makes us relevant. There is an excitement around this season that hasn't been present in a long time. Dodger fans have something to look forward to, the credibility of a Name, which is something that's been lacking since Gary Sheffield was traded.

Joe Torre won't get blood from a stone, but this team will listen to him, and hopefully they will mature under him, and when Torre leaves, hopefully they will be ready to follow his handpicked successor.

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Better Keeper: Carlos Pena or Garrett Atkins

I was talking to John Brubaker the other day, and the topic turned towards our keepers. Both of us are trying to decide on who our seven keepers will be for our twelve team 5x5 category league. John's dilemma was deciding whether Carlos Pena's upside in power was enough to make him more attractive as a keeper than Garrett Atkins.

Let's take a look the pros and cons to both players.

Garret Atkins
Pros: He hits for average, maintaining a .306 batting average over his three full seasons in the majors. He has good lefty/righty splits, and he has a solid walk rate. He's fairly young and could improve on his power. He plays at a great hitter's park.
Cons: His numbers are much poorer away from Coors. His OPS on the road is .163 less than at home, and his batting average is .095 worse when he's away. His unappealing away stats could leave him susceptible to cold streaks. He hasn't shown that he can be a consistent power hitter.

Carlos Pena
Pros: He hit for a ton of power, hitting 46 home runs to go with a .627 slugging percentage, which was second only to Alex Rodriguez. He can get on base through walks, with the fifth best walk rate in the league. His lefty/righty and home/away splits are bearable.
Cons: He's two years older than Atkins, and he's already been given up on by four teams. Even though he walks a lot, he strikes out a lot as well, enough for tenth most in the league. His high strikeout totals might not affect his power production, but they could easily affect his batting average. His .282 average might be a fluke, as it's thirty points above his career average. According to ESPN's Inside Edge, Pena has more holes at the plate than Atkins.

Thoughts
Atkins might have more value than Pena next year purely because of his age, which allows him a bit more upside than Pena. Atkins is a safer risk than Pena, as it is much more likely that Pena fails to repeat his 2007 numbers in 2008 than it is for Atkins. In 2007, third base was a less productive source for power than first; only four third basemen hit 30 or more home runs compared to nine first basemen. Atkins does have the ability to hit thirty home runs, and he has already proven that he can hit for average. Pena has less of a track record than Atkins, so it's hard to predict what he might do next year.

Conclusion
This is one of those decisions could very well end up leaving you kicking yourself in July, but I think Atkins' age, track record, and position scarcity makes him a better keeper pick than Pena. It seems very unlikely that Pena will come close to replicating last year's numbers, and he could end just a poor man's Paul Konerko, which isn't bad value, but it doesn't necessarily make him keeper worthy. Also, since John has Adrian Gonzalez on his roster as well, Pena might be expendable. A close edge to Garrett Atkins.

Questions/Thoughts/Pithy Sayings?

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Centerfielders Revisited

Before I finish up my look at the bottom half of our list of National League centerfielders, I'd like to take a moment to congratulate Nate (Naterade) Swanson on winning our Yahoo fantasy league's 2007 championship. Nate finished second in the regular season standings, and eventually beat Tim Ledoux's Macafeys in a final between the top two teams of the regular season. Nate's lineup was not the strongest, but he was always consistent, only losing by more than one category twice over the season's course. My hat is off to you, Naterade.

Here we are back to the list. The first part can be found here.

Alfredo Amezaga's main value to the Florida Marlins is his defense. He has a strong range factor and a good zone rating, and he while he does provide some speed on the basepaths -- he has 33 stolen bases over the last two seasons -- his success rate is only 63%. (The league average was 74%.) Amezaga posted a career best .682 OPS this year, but he profiles best as a defensive utilityman. The Marlins would rather have started Alejandro De Aza in centerfield this year, but injuries allowed Amezaga to get the majority of playing time.

Mike Cameron's batting average and slugging percentage were well below last year's marks, but he had almost as many home runs and doubles. Both his range factor and his zone rating were also down from last year. Cameron's batting average is the only major detraction to his fantasy value; he needs to hit .260 or better and cut down on his strikeouts in order to be more than a 4th outfielder. An increase in plate selectivity, coupled with his talent for power and speed, would make Cameron a great value for next season.

Bill Hall was a major disappointment to many fantasy owners this year, including myself. Yahoo rated him 93rd among all players at the beginning of the season, and somehow he managed to end up 706th. I didn't expect him to hit 35 homers again this year, but 25 seemed manageable, which is eleven more than he ended up hitting. Hall's slugging percentage was 42 points below his career average, and his four stolen bases were the least he's ever had in a full season. Primarily an infielder, Hall was moved to centerfield this year to make room for Rickie Weeks. His defense has been unremarkable at best, and it is unclear what the Brewers plan to do with him, as he lost time down the stretch to Corey Hart. Hall's value for next year depends on his playing time and his ability to rebound at the plate.

The Washington Nationals started a variety of players at centerfield, but Nook Logan received the majority of the starts there. Logan has little power and a poor on-base percentage, but he is fast, stealing 23 bases in 118 games. Logan is very good defensively, but unless he improves his ability to reach base, he has little value as a starter. The Nationals acquired Wily Mo Pena near the trading deadline, and it seems they would like to start him in right next year and move Austin Kearns to center. Logan should only be on fantasy radars if it appears the Nationals will be giving him playing time, and only those looking for stolen bases shoud be interested.

Baseball America ranked Nate McLouth the Pirates' 10th best prospect in 2005, citing his contact ability and speed as positives. McLouth improved on his offensive numbers from last year, with very large increases in slugging and on-base percentages. He was an underrated source for stolen bases this year, stealing 22 out of 23 attempts. If he gets a full season of playing time, McLouth could be considered a sleeper candidate for a 20 homerun/20 stolen base season in the near future. That is a large if, as the Pirates also gave a lot of playing time in centerfield to Chris Duffy and Nyjer Morgan this year. McLouth is still relatively young, so he is definitely one to watch in larger leagues.

Willy Taveras missed significant portions of August and September due to a strained right groin, ruining his chances at his first 40 stolen base season. He set career highs in batting average, and on-base and slugging percentages. Injuries and poor marks on defense keep him from being higher on this list. Good thing fantasy doesn't count defense; a healthy Taveras is definitely one to watch for next year.

Injuries were also a big factor for the Cardinals' Jim Edmonds, who spent the offseason recovering from toe and shoulder surgeries. Edmonds only started 99 games in center due to injuries, and his production was down for the second year in a row. With his defensive and offensive production slipping, Edmonds stellar career appears close to being over. Do not draft Edmonds next year.

Dave Roberts had his fifth season of 30 stolen bases or more, despite platooning with Rajai Davis for part of the season, so Roberts still has value despite being on the downside of his career. His OPS was his lowest in five years. Given the right opportunity, Roberts is a good source of stolen bases, but it might not be with the Giants as they appear ready to give Rajai Davis, whom they acquired from Pirates this year, a shot at the starting centerfield job. With the Barry Bonds era over in San Francisco, the Giants will probably try to go younger, and Roberts will most likely not fit in their plans.

Well, that's the list. I started this list back on August 20th, with more than a month left in the season to play, so this authority of this list is definitely debateable. Players have done their best and worst to move up and down, and this list is far from definitive. So please, let me know where I got it wrong, or if you're so disposed, where I got it right.

Next thing I'll probably write about will be a look back at my Yahoo fantasy league, and we'll discuss why my inability to stick with a focused strategy enabled me to run my team into the losers' bracket for the second year in a row.

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This is disconcerting.

Not really pertinent to fantasy baseball, but as a Dodger fan, this article by LA Times columnist T.J. Simers about their younger players has me concerned. He refers to Matt Kemp as talented but "also a jerk in the making and one of those gifted athletes who doesn't necessarily have to work hard to get by." He goes on to highlight the questionable attitudes of James Loney and Andy LaRoche, and states that "they have no respect for players like Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez and Nomar Garciaparra, who are on their way out".
This is definitely troubling to hear, as is Simers' comment that manager Grady Little has lost the clubhouse. This season was marred by injuries to the rotation, and a disappointment overall. It is the development of the Dodgers' rookies that have kept the season exciting. If they turn out to be less like Russell Martin and more like headcase Raul Mondesi, a losing season will be less easier to stomach.

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I suppose I should elaborate . . .

So, the title of this blog is "I Hate Matt Berry", which may have caused two small but important questions to wander up through your conciousness and into the forefront of your mind: Who is Matt Berry? and Why does Ben hate him? First things first.

Matt Berry, a.k.a. The Talented Mr. Roto, is a prominent fantasy sports blogger and is ESPN's Senior Director of Fantasy. You can read his lengthy bio here at his fantasy sport site, talentedmrroto.com. Go ahead and read it, I can wait.

Okay, so now that we've established who Matt Berry is, why do I hate him?

Well, I guess to be perfectly honest, I don't really hate Matt Berry. It's more of an extreme personal dislike for the way he writes. His blog content at ESPN.com (which appears to have expired recently, according to his August 9th entry) is split between fantasy analysis and personal anecdotes. Which is fine, after all, this is the Internet, where people can blog about whatever they want, no matter how inane or irrelevant.

But when I go to ESPN for expert fantasy baseball analysis, I don't want to spend half my time wading through blogs and mailbags about problems with dating or thoughts on cool shows. I want facts and analysis and observations that I don't feel like I could come up with myself. I guess that's my main problem with Berry; I feel like he wastes my time. I hate it when he spends his time in the online chats responding to questions and comments that have nothing to do with fantasy. Take this chat here. Just scrolling through it, we can see recurring questions and comments about Jessica Alba, Mr. Belvedere, Hulk Hogan, Matt Berry's nickname. These things do not interest me when I'm trying to find out which players are going to have great second halves or which pitchers are about to take a nosedive. But apparently they interest Berry enough for him to spend a good portion of the chat talking about them, despite the fact that he is supposed to be ESPN's director of fantasy.

(Okay, I'm feeling like things are going to get a little graphic in a second. Skip on ahead a paragraph or two, as things are probably going to start making less sense and start being more vulgar and libelous.)

These chats are Berry's links to the masses, these slimy sycophants from which he gets his validation and adulation. They come to these forums to get on their knees and fellate the fabled Berry cock. Rows upon rows of people all there to service their master. And Matt Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, sits upon his throne, smiling beatifically upon his people, as he digitally offers them a collective fist-bump. Berry pisses smug superiority and shits delusions of grandeur. He's a boy who never grew up, and these chatrooms and websites filled with attention seeking brown-nosers and ass-lickers are his playground. They crawl to him, yearning to wipe his ass, and, oh, does he indulge them.

(That got kind of weird.)

(Sorry about that.)

(Okay I think I'm starting to come out out of it. Just bear with me.)

Berry's chats and blogs come off as an exhibition in glad-handing popularity. Chatters tell him how awesome he is, and he responds by answering their questions. His chats foster an environment where if you profess to like the things he does and laugh at his jokes, he will reward you with his wisdom.

If Berry would just focus on being a fantasy expert, and stop trying to be Bill Simmons, his writing would definitely be more palatable. As it is, I will continue to skip his posts, and focus my attentions on the words of Eric Karabell, Tristan Cockcroft, and Ron Shandler. I can always count on them for the straight shit.

So, anyways, that's why the title of this blog. Don't worry, while I may have to let off some steam from time to time about Mr. Berry, most of my posts won't be about him. And don't let me influence your opinion about him, go find out for yourself what you think. Let me know if I'm wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

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Top NL Centerfielders (one more time)

In my previous post, I set out to rank the starting centerfielders in the National League as based on their performances this season. Here is the semi-objective final list once more:

1. Carlos Beltran (NYM)
2. Aaron Rowand (PHI)
3. Andruw Jones (ATL)
4. Chris Young (ARI)
5. Jacque Jones (CHC)
6. Juan Pierre (LAD)
7. Hunter Pence (HOU)
8. Josh Hamilton (CIN)
9. Alfredo Amezaga (FLA)
10. Mike Cameron (SDG)
11. Bill Hall (MIL)
12. Nook Logan (WAS)
13. Nate McLouth (PIT)
14. Willy Taveras (COL)
15. Jim Edmonds (STL)
16. Dave Roberts (SFG)


The Top Eight

Despite missing 15 games due to injury, Carlos Beltran's production this year gives evidence that he is one of the better centerfielders in the league; his tools and talent give him the opportunity to be a dominant fantasy force, and year after year he is drafted as one. In truth, Beltran has had only a couple truly dominant seasons. Since his rookie year in 1999, he's batted over .300 twice -- his career average is .280 -- and hit more than 30 home runs twice. He had back to back seasons of 40 or more steals in 2003 and 2004, but since then he hasn't stolen more than 18, and as he enters his thirties, he will probably never steal over 30 again. His walks are down this year compared to last year, when he set a career high in home runs, but he's having a great August (1.376 OPS) since coming back from injury, and will probably have his third season of 30 or more home runs. Beltran is a terrific talent, whose upside justifies his annual first round draft status, but he is more likely to continue to be a 25HR-25SB type of player than a 35-35 talent.

Aaron Rowand is one of those players who's much more important to his team in real life than he is to any fantasy team. He's one of those players typically referred to as "hard-nosed", -- though as we can see here, his nose is not nearly hard enough -- which describes his aggressive style of play. Rowand doesn't excel in any one area, but he does most things well. He is headed for a career year this season and will set personal highs in almost every meaningful offensive category. It's hard to see him improve on these numbers next year, and he is most likely to provide value to fantasy owners as a mid-round, third outfielder. He'll probably end up with 30 home runs this year, but, with his reckless play in the outfield, the challenge will be for him to stay healthy enough to produce similar numbers year after year.

Andruw Jones has an outside chance this year at setting a new career high in strikeouts. He'll probably fall a few strikeouts short, but the fact remains that Jones, while never a strong source for batting average, is going to end the season with one of the worst batting averages for a player annually drafted in the top three rounds. Jones has been a decent option for power this year and will probably end up hitting more than 30 home runs for the eighth time in his career, but his slugging percentage remains a good seventy points below his career average. He's not been the slugger that people drafted him this year for -- and he'll never be more than a solid option for homeruns and RBI; he's stolen 32 bases in the last six seasons and he's not getting any quicker -- but it's hard to see him as a .219 hitter for the rest of his career. His defensive skills, though slowly eroding, and his RBI numbers are enough to keep him near the top of this list.

If anyone's going to pass Jones next year, it's the next guy on our list, Chris Young. Young is the first NL rookie to have more than 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in a single season, and he has a good chance to go 25HR and 25SB or even better. The guy has talent. He's gone on a tear in the second half of August, hitting 9 home runs in his last 12 games. Right now, he's miscast as a leadoff hitter, with a .237 batting average and a .289 on base percentage, but he has the talent to improve those skills. He has the power to develop into a middle of the order type of hitter, and his speed makes him a tantalizing fantasy player. ESPN compared him to a young Mike Cameron in their 2007 fantasy forecast, but if he can raise his average thirty points or more, he could put up comparable numbers to Andruw Jones' best seasons.

Jacque Jones is a centerfielder who only holds value in the deepest of leagues. He won't provide you with double-digit steals, and his power has dropped off sharply from recent years, but he his true value can't be measured by the traditional 5 category format, i.e. runs, home runs, RBI, steals, batting average. He's on pace to set a career low in strikeouts for a full season by a wide margin, and he could set a new career high in doubles hit. His defense makes up for his shallow production at the plate; he's always shown good range in the outfield and he ranks second on our list of centerfielders in both range factor and zone ranking. At the age of 32, his skills are eroding, but his improved walk rate and decreased strikeout rate gives hope that he might rebound with a decent season next year.

Despite the fact that Juan Pierre could steal 60 bases this year for the second time in his career, I still wish the Dodgers had spent their $7,000,000 on Gary Matthews Jr. instead. Juan Pierre's speed on the basepaths is his only fantasy asset. He provides good batting average, but is subject to streakiness -- his batting average was at .277 until a 14-game hitting streak raised it thirteen points. He offers no power, has a weak throwing arm, and his range factor is the worst among the centerfielders on our list. He very rarely strikes out, but he's not very patient or selective, as evidenced by the fact that he averages 3.37 pitches per plate appearance, which ranks 164th among all qualified major leaguers. Pierre's fantasy value is inflated by his speed, but while it may be the only thing he provides well, he certainly provides a lot of it.

Before missing a month due to injuring his wrist while sliding into second, Hunter Pence was a leading candidate for the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Ranked as the Astros' number one prospect by Baseball America, Pence began the year in AAA before being promoted to the major leagues in late April. He's shown a great combination of batting average and power, and he has the speed to steal 15-plus bases a year. He might not stick at centerfield due to the fact that his defense profiles better as a corner outfielder, but he has a strong arm and his speed makes up for his poor routes in the outfield.

Josh Hamilton is the feel-good story of the year. The number one draft pick in the 1999 amateur baseball draft, Hamilton's been out of baseball since 2003 due to off-the-field problems with drugs. Cincinatti made him a Rule V draft pick in 2006, and Hamilton responded by hitting .403 in spring training of 2007. Hamilton still has the tools to be a dynamic offensive player; what remains to be seen is if he can stay focused enough to have a productive career. Hamilton has shown that he can be productive -- he's hit 17 homeruns in 255 at bats with a .286 batting average -- but he has missed thirty-six games this year due to injuries. Hamilton is a solid player, and his high-ceiling makes him one to keep an eye on for the next couple of years.

Since it's taken me a while to get this far, I'm going to post the top eight and get to rest, hopefully by the end of the week. As always, I'd love to hear any agreement/disagreement you might have with anything I've said.

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Ranking NL Centerfielders

I had a discussion with John Brubaker the other day regarding who was the best centerfielder (CF) in the NL West; he contended that San Diego’s Mike Cameron’s defense and veteran experience made him the top candidate, while I countered that Arizona’s Chris Young’s speed and power made up for Cameron’s advantage in batting average and defense. (As you might be able to tell, our choice of options were not plentiful.)

We argued for a while, – I even brought the Dodgers’ Juan Pierre into the discussion, before conceding that his popgun arm and inability to make good reads on fly balls force him from contention – but no agreement could be reached.

This prompted me to wonder: who is the best centerfielder in the NL? (I expanded the question to encompass the entire National League in order to make the project more interesting. I also believe that looking at all of the centerfielders in the entire NL raises some other points of interest that will be addressed further on.)

Since this is ostensibly a blog about fantasy baseball, let’s see what my Yahoo fantasy league rankings have to say on the subject.

1. Aaron Rowand (PHI)
2. Carlos Beltran (NYM)
3. Juan Pierre (LAD)
4. Chris Young (ARI)
5. Mike Cameron (SDG)
6. Andruw Jones (ATL)
7. Hunter Pence (HOU)
8. Willy Taveras (COL)
9. Josh Hamiliton (CIN)
10. Bill Hall (MIL)
11. Dave Roberts (SFG)
12. Jacque Jones (CHC)
13. Nate McLouth (PIT)
14. Alfredo Amezaga (FLA)
15. Jim Edmonds (STL)
16. Nook Logan (WAS)

A few former all stars, some solid veterans, promising rookies, but not a very exciting group of players. Most of these guys could be found in the middle to late rounds of a standard 5X5 category, 12 team league. Not many could be called fantasy studs – only half of them are in the top 500 among all players -- except for Beltran, and his numbers are down from previous seasons.

But because my Yahoo league only measures players’ abilities to produce in five categories (batting average, runs, homeruns, RBI, and stolen bases), we cannot take these rankings as a true measure of our centerfielders’ abilities. We could point to this list and say that Aaron Rowand has had the best fantasy season of all NL centerfielders so far, but, for baseball purposes, that doesn’t help us.

In order to get a more accurate representation of these players’ “real-world” worth, I went to ESPN’s player rater webpage. In a nutshell, the player rater rates a player’s abilities in several different weighted categories, and based on these rankings, assigns them a number from 0-100. (For a more detailed explanation, go to http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2897967.)

Here are ESPN’s rankings for the NL centerfielders, along with their ratings:

1. Rowand -46.0
2. A. Jones -24.5
3. Beltran -23.7
4. Young -19.9
5. Pierre -15.8
6. Cameron -14.6
7. Taveras -14.0
8. Pence -11.9
9. Roberts -7.5
10. Hall -5.5
11. Edmonds -5.0 (tied)
11. J. Jones -5.0 (tied)
12. Amezaga -4.5
13. Logan -1.7
14. McLouth -.08
(Note: Hamilton does not have a rating because he has not appeared in half his team’s games due to injuries.)

Our two lists are fairly similar; both Yahoo and ESPN agree that Rowand is having the best season for an NL centerfielder this year. The biggest discrepancy occurs with ESPN’s placement of Andruw Jones at number two, four points higher than Yahoo’s ranking. I find it odd that Jones would rank so high on this list, mostly because of his horribly dismal numbers in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, all of which are at least 40 points lower than his career numbers. Some might point to Jones’ defensive prowess as his saving grace on this list, but the ESPN player rater does not account for defense, which means, as a full measure of a player’s skill and talent, it is not as comprehensive of a ranking as we would like.

To try and gauge these players’ defensive talents, I looked at two stats found on ESPN’s website: range factor (RF) and zone rating (ZR). Range factor is determined by (putouts + assists)/innings played. We can use this stat to determine how many total outs a player has participated in. Zone Rating is a stat that tracks the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his “defensive zone”, as measured by STATS, Inc. I’m not entirely certain what the term “defensive zone” denotes, but STATS, Inc. is a well known company devoted to statistical analysis in sports, and they seem to know their stuff. I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, since both Yahoo and Fox Sports are listed as clients on their website.

Using these stats, I ranked the players accordingly:

________________RF___ZR
1. Beltran......2.95 .919
2. J. Jones.....3.00 .912
3. Amezaga......3.09 .888
4. Logan........2.83 .899
5. Rowand.......2.73 .900
6. A. Jones.....2.77 .882
7. McLouth......2.75 .891
8. Hamilton.....2.76 .875
9. Pence........2.77 .855
10. Young.......2.56 .877
11. Pierre......2.36 .886
12. Hall........2.71 .843
13. Cameron.....2.46 .871
14. Edmonds.....2.61 .855
15. Roberts.....2.64 .846
16. Taveras.....2.71 .815

One caveat: Six of the players on this list had almost twice as many innings played at the CF position as the rest. They are Rowand, Beltran, Young, Pierre, A. Jones, Cameron and Hall. Because they had logged more numbers at their position, I gave their stats a little more weight when making this list. For example, A. Jones and McLouth are fairly similar in RF, but McLouth’s ZR is .09 better than Jones’. I ranked Jones higher than McLouth because he has had more opportunities to make mistakes than McLouth has had.

In looking at this list, we can see why teams continue to start certain players despite their lack of offensive production. Amezaga, J. Jones and Logan all ranked near the bottom on our offensively-based lists, but while they might not draw crowds with they’re hitting ability, they do have value out on the field.

Also revealing is that a few players’ once touted for their defensive abilities in past season, find themselves out of the top five on our list. Again this is only based on two different statistics, but it is telling that both Cameron and Edmonds are below their career numbers in RF and ZR. Cameron has career marks of 2.79 in RF and .901 in ZR, while Edmonds has marks of 2.72 and .893. Andruw Jones appears to be merely average according to our lists; both his RF and ZR rank 5th and 8th on our list respectively. For comparison, the average RF among qualified CF’s is 2.58; the average ZR is .892.

Both Cameron and Edmonds are in the later stages of their career, while all of the innings Jones has logged since he entered the majors at the age of 19 have surely taken a toll on his body. I am not prepared to call Andruw Jones overrated defensively, but it is something to look into for another time. It might be time to call Jones overrated as a player, at least from a fantasy standpoint. He’s a career .263 hitter who’s only hit above .300 once, and he hasn’t reached double digits in steals since 2001. We could forgive these faults if he hit for power, but he needs to show that he can consistently hit more than 40 homeruns in a season.

So, after taking into account our many lists and rankings, here is how I would rank the NL centerfielders, based on this season:

1. Beltran
2. Rowand
3. A. Jones
4. Young
5. J. Jones
6. Pierre
7. Pence
8. Hamilton
9. Amezaga
10. Cameron
11. Hall
12. Logan
13. McLouth
14. Taveras
15. Edmonds
16. Roberts

(Again, this list is two parts objective, one part subjective, and I’m willing to listen to any disagreements and arguments against what I’ve put down.)

Apparently even after all my talk of overrating Andruw Jones, I still put him second on the list. Well, part of that is the level of talent he is facing in the NL, and the other part is the fact that he is still fairly good, crappy batting average and all.

Well, this has gotten pretty long. I’ll get back to this list at a later time with thoughts on each player on the list, – such as “Is Edmonds the worst starting CF in the NL?” – and I’ll compare the level of outfield talent in the NL to the AL. Or maybe I’ll do something completely different, who knows?

I’d love to hear thoughts and comments on this list, suggestions on where I went wrong, or, if you vehemently disagree and are predisposed towards crude and demeaning language, directions on where I might forcibly and violently put my opinions. All comments and criticisms are equally welcome.

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