Friday, February 20, 2009

Here's More Keepers - Dissect Yourself

Let’s look at the keepers for Dissect Yourself.  Dissect Yourself finished first in the consolation playoff bracket last year, so they will have the first pick in the draft, which could help them make the jump into the championship playoff bracket.  Dissect Yourself has a good mix of upcoming and established talent, so they could be one All-Star away from being in playoff contention.  Here’s the roster.

Dissect Yourself

Clint Barmes (Col - 2B,3B,SS)          

Hank Blalock (Tex - 1B,3B)  

Jay Bruce (Cin - OF)  

Eric Byrnes (Ari - OF)           

Ryan Doumit (Pit - C,OF)     

Brian Giles (SD - OF)

Matt Holliday (Oak - OF)      

Orlando Hudson (Ari - 2B)   

James Loney (LAD - 1B)      

Mike Lowell (Bos - 3B)         

Xavier Nady (NYY - OF)     

Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B)        

Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF) 

Troy Tulowitzki (Col - SS)    

Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B) 

Jayson Werth (Phi - OF)        

Josh Willingham (Was - OF)  

Dave Bush (Mil - SP) 

Ryan Franklin (StL - RP)       

Jon Lester (Bos - SP) 

Mike Mussina (NYY - SP)    

Carlos Mármol (ChC - RP)    

Roy Oswalt (Hou - SP)          

Chris Pérez (StL - RP)           

Chad Qualls (Ari - RP)          

CC Sabathia (NYY - SP)       

Dan Wheeler (TB - RP)         

Though Matt Holliday’s value will undoubtedly take a hit with the move to Oakland, he is a good enough hitter that he should still give you a .300 BA, 25 HR and 100 RBI.  He’s not first-round material anymore, but he’s still a talented hitter in his prime.  The 28 SB were a nice surprise last year, but let’s not count on him doing that again, especially since his new team does not run very much. 

Alfonso Soriano has not been an iron man since coming to the Cubs, but when he plays, he rakes, hitting 62 HR in 244 games with the Cubs.  I think he’ll give you close to what he’s done the past two years, something like 30 HR with 20 SB.  He’s a solid source of speed and power. 

Brian Roberts has been pretty steady over the past three years, never hitting worse than .286, never stealing less than 36 bases, scoring less than 100 runs once, and nearly hitting 10 or more HR each season.  Despite not coming close to repeating his career-high 18 HR season, his slugging percentage has been trending upward for the past three years, as have his doubles totals.  It appears that he’s sacrificing fly ball hits for line drives, resulting in more doubles and helping his batting average.  I think we can expect another solid season from him, with another 40 SB.

C.C. Sabathia put together one of the best half-seasons for a pitcher in recent years, and he now finds himself with a new contract playing in front of one of the better offenses in the league.  Sabathia will be a little overrated going into this season, only because of how well he pitched in the second half and because of the high amount of innings he’s pitched over the past two years.  It’s possible that Sabathia will miss a start or two this year (in fact I expect it), but I think he’ll put together another solid, though probably not elite, season.  He’ll strikeout a good number of batters, and he should be in line for a good amount of wins since he pitches deep into nearly every game.

I didn’t like Roy Oswalt heading into last year because of the way his k/9 rate was trending down the last few years, but he rebounded to post a solid 7.12 k/9 rate last year.  Even if the strikeouts aren’t elite, Oswalt is still a good enough pitcher to give you a solid WHIP and ERA.  If not for a few bad starts in April and May last year, Oswalt would have had much better numbers for the season.  As it was, he turned it on in June, pitching his way to an ERA of 2.44 for the rest of the year.  Oswalt should have another solid season this year, with around 15 Wins. 

Jay Bruce was heavily-hyped when he came up last year.  He didn’t put up Ryan Braun numbers, but 21 HR in 413 at bats as a 21-year-old is nothing to sneeze at.  Bruce put up great numbers in the minors, something that I expect we will see him repeat in the majors some day.  I think he will hit for power this year, but struggle to maintain a good BA.  He’ll need to improve on his BA against lefties and on the road from last year.  He’s young, so there will be some slumps, but this kid has the kind of talent that you have to hold onto in keeper leagues.    

Dissect Yourself has a good amount of depth, so it was a little hard filling this last spot.  Dan Uggla is a good option as a keeper, providing the type of power you don’t normally see from a second baseman, but since we already kept Brian Roberts, I felt it would be good to have a little positional balance heading into the draft.  Ryan Doumit is a catcher I like for this year; if he stays healthy he could be a top-five catcher, but he does have a bit of an injury history.  He’s a great hitter, but I think there is more depth at catcher than people might think, and good value can be found later on in the draft.  James Loney is young and talented, but he’s never been much of a power hitter.  While I like Loney’s ability to hit for average, it’s good to have power from your corner infield slots, and I don’t think Loney will even hit 20 HR this year.  Xavier Nady was a bit of a surprise last year, but it looks like he might lose at bats in a crowded Yankees outfield, plus he’s never had 500 at bats before, so it’s hard to say that he will repeat last year’s production.  I think the pick here has to be Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulowitzki had a great rookie year and then a disappointing sophomore season last year.  He missed a lot of time with injuries, but he did have a couple good months when healthy, and he appears to be good to start the season.  I think we see him return to numbers closer to his 2007 year.  

Let me know what you think.

No comments: