Almost Out Of Keepers - The Balls

As we near the finish line, let’s look at last year’s third-place finisher, The Balls.  Will they be contending for a title in 2009?  Here’s their roster.

The Balls

Garrett Atkins (Col - 1B,3B) 

Mike Aviles (KC - 2B,SS)     

Milton Bradley (ChC - OF)   

Pat Burrell (TB - OF) 

Jack Cust (Oak - OF) 

Mark DeRosa (Cle - 1B,2B,3B,OF)  

Chone Figgins (LAA - 2B,3B,OF)    

Adrián González (SD - 1B)   

Ramón Hernández (Cin - C)  

Ryan Howard (Phi - 1B)        

Carlos Quentin (CWS - OF)  

Hanley Ramírez (Fla - SS)     

Shane Victorino (Phi - OF)    

Randy Winn (SF - OF)          

Bronson Arroyo (Cin - SP)    

Erik Bedard (Sea - SP)          

Zack Greinke (KC - SP,RP)  

Trevor Hoffman (Mil - RP)    

Joe Nathan (Min - RP)           

Ricky Nolasco (Fla - SP)       

Jake Peavy (SD - SP) 

Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP)  

Matt Thornton (CWS - RP)   

Edinson Vólquez (Cin - SP)  

Adam Wainwright (StL - SP)

Chris Young (SD - SP)          

Hanley Ramirez is an easy choice, as he’s typically believed to be one of the top-two players in fantasy baseball.  He’s only 25, he has a career OPS of .906 in three seasons, and he’s averaged 45 SB in his short career.  According to his coach, Ramirez will hit primarily out of third spot this year, possibly limiting his stolen base opportunities but increasing his RBI chances.  Ramirez will give The Balls another elite season.

Ryan Howard is not the first-round fantasy hitter that he was during his MVP season in 2006, mainly because it doesn’t look like he will ever help you in batting average, but his power keeps him among the elite first basemen in the league.  Howard has averaged 51 HR in the last three seasons, and he should come close to hitting 50 again this year.  Howard is surrounded by a strong offense, so he’ll have a lot of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Carlos Quentin was one of Arizona’s best prospects, but he was never able to put things together until he was traded to the White Sox, where he put together a great year until he missed all of September because of a fractured wrist.  Quentin might lose some power because of last year’s wrist injury, but he should be able to repeat his other stats from last year.

The Padres tried to dump his contract during the offseason, but that doesn’t mean you should think about getting rid of Jake Peavy.  Peavy missed some time last year with an elbow injury, but he pitched great when healthy, and he’s been an elite talent for the past few years.  If Peavy can bring last year’s K/9 rate up to his career numbers, he’ll be in for another great season.

Adrian Gonzalez is another Padre, but unlike Peavy, playing at Petco doesn’t help his value.  Gonzalez has put up solid power numbers since joining the Padres, but most of his best work is done on the road, where his OPS is over .100 points higher than at home.  He’s only 26 and he had his most homers yet for the Padres last year, so there’s hope that we might one day see him hit 40 HR in a season.  Even if it’s not this year, expect another 30 HR season from Gonzalez.

Shane Victorino might not ever be a 20/20 player, but there’s nothing wrong with being a 15/30 player.  Victorino will give you close to 100 Runs and an average around .290, but the steals are where he gets most of his value.  Not a bad outfielder to have, he’s being drafted in the 8^th round on average over at ESPN. 

For the final pick, I’m going to eschew my normal guidelines and take Joe Nathan, a closer.  I took Joe Nathan instead of guys like Chone Figgins and Garrett Atkins because I feel he gives you the best value.  Nathan has never had less than 36 Saves in a season, and he rarely walks anyone, giving your team a good WHIP and ERA.  Nathan’s K/9 rate has been dropping from its formerly elite levels over the past couple of years, but he still strikes out a batter per inning which is more than closers such as Huston Street, Joakim Soria, and Matt Capps did last year.  I think Nathan is the guy to go with here.

As far as Figgins and Atkins go, I like Atkins better, but I’m not sold on Atkins ever developing the power that you want from a corner infielder.  Don’t be seduced by Figgins’ steals totals over the past few seasons; he will not give you much of anything else.  This team already has Ramirez and Victorino, so they should be fine with the speed they have going into the draft.  Figgins has been running less over the past couple of years because of injuries, but don’t expect him to suddenly steal 45 bases this year.

All right, just one more team to go, last year’s champion Macafeys.  I hope to get to their keepers next week, and then once everyone submits their 2009 keepers, I will do a short rundown of the top 3.  

Read more!

Have Some Keepers - Naterade

Naterade will have a few tough decisions to make regarding his keepers for 2009.  He has compiled a lot of touted prospects who could take the next step to fantasy stardom in a year or two.  Naterade finished a close second in the regular season, but lost in the semifinals to the Macafeys.  I predict he’ll be in the playoffs again this year ­­— how far he’ll go will depend on the growth of his young players.  Let’s look at the roster.

Naterade

Blake DeWitt (LAD - 2B,3B)           

Mike Jacobs (KC - 1B)          

Howie Kendrick (LAA - 2B)

Evan Longoria (TB - 3B)       

Ryan Ludwick (StL - OF)     

Nick Markakis (Bal - OF)      

Russell Martin (LAD - C,3B)

Cameron Maybin (Fla - OF)  

Lastings Milledge (Was - OF)           

Justin Morneau (Min - 1B)     

Alexei Ramírez (CWS - 2B,SS,OF)  

Justin Upton (Ari - OF)         

Kevin Youkilis (Bos - 1B,3B)           

Delmon Young (Min - OF)    

Chad Billingsley (LAD - SP,RP)       

Matt Garza (TB - SP) 

Mike González (Atl - RP)      

Félix Hernández (Sea - SP)    

Matt Lindstrom (Fla - RP)     

Francisco Liriano (Min - SP)  

Rafael Pérez (Cle - RP)          

Francisco Rodríguez (NYM - RP)     

George Sherrill (Bal - RP)      

James Shields (TB - SP)         

Cory Wade (LAD - RP)        

I really did not think that Justin Morneau had it in him to hit .300 again, but he proved me wrong.  I like that he cut down on his strikeout numbers this year, and I think his power numbers will return as his slugging percentage was similar to last year’s and his home run per fly ball ratio was lower than his normal rate, indicating that he may have been a little unlucky last year, which would explain why so many of his hits went for doubles.  Morneau should provide solid value at first base this season.

I like Nick Markakis for this season.  He’ll be 25 this season, he hits a lot of line drives, gets on base, and is showing some power growth.  I don’t think Markakis will be the 20/20 player that we hoped, as he did not run as much last year and he wasn’t as successful at it when he did run.  I think he’ll continue to develop into a solid middle-of-the-order hitter, but much of his value will depend on his power growth and his ability to hit for average. 

Evan Longoria didn’t quite put up Ryan Braun numbers in his rookie year, but I don’t think there’s any way you can’t consider him as a keeper with the numbers he put up in 122 games last year and the potential that his minor league numbers suggest.  I think he can be a .300 hitter at some point, but he’ll need to work on his numbers against left-handed pitchers.  I think he’ll threaten 30 HR this year.  He hits in a great lineup, so he should improve on his RBI and Runs totals from last year.

Russell Martin has a hot girlfriend.  Hopefully she won’t hurt his stamina during the season, as he had trouble staying productive in the second half last year, probably due to the high number of plate appearances he averages every year.  If the Dodgers can spell Martin more often, I think his batting average and power numbers will rebound.  As it is, he’s still provides great SB totals for a catcher, and he’s just entering his prime.  One of the top three catchers in fantasy.

It feels like Felix Hernandez has been around forever, mainly because he was so highly touted when he made his first major league start in 2005 as a 19 year-old.  He has yet to become the elite pitcher that everyone projected, but he’ll be 23 in April and there’s still a lot to like about him.  Hernandez stuck out 7.8 batters per 9 innings and induced hitters into hitting groundballs 52% of the time last year.  These numbers put him in the company of aces like Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt.  By keeping the ball on the ground and striking out so many hitters, Hernandez limits the chances of giving up a big inning due to home runs.  I think Hernandez will continue to grow into an ace.  Naterade can’t give up on him yet.

For these last two picks, I’m going to go with upside.  Chad Billingsley needs to cut down on his walks, but I think we have an ace in the making.  He struck out an elite 9.02 batters per nine innings last year, and he showed consistency throughout the season.  He did break his leg in the offseason, but he should be fine by Opening Day, and the broken leg should have no affect on his pitching ability.  In the last spot, I think we have to take Justin Upton.  Upton showed incredible improvements in the second-half last year, with an OPS of .927.  He’ll still have trouble with strikeouts, but this guy will have major power as he continues to get older.  He’s only 21, so expect some inconsistency, but be prepared to reap the benefits of his upside as early as this year.

I felt bad about not keeping Francisco Liriano and James Shields on this team.  Both are solid pitchers, especially Liriano, who could be an ace soon.  I think Liriano will be good this year, but I’m not completely sold on him being an elite pitcher after he missed 2007 due to Tommy John surgery.  Let someone else spend a high draft pick on him.  Shields his also very good, but I don’t like how his K/9 rate dropped last year.  Try to pick him up in the draft if you can.  Kevin Youkilis is a player that I really felt like keeping over Billingsley, but I’m not sold on his power from last year.  He’s 30 this year, and I kind of think that what you see is what you get — a corner infielder who will give you a good average and good RBI and Run totals because of the offense surrounding him, but only adequate power numbers.  Save him for the draft.  Alexei Ramirez shows good promise for a second baseman, but I’m not ready to take him over any of these seven keepers based on one season.  I really like Cameron Maybin and Lastings Milledge for their potential (Milledge more than Maybin for this year), but I don’t think I can justify taking them over any of the other players on this list because of how raw they are at this stage of their careers.  Both are players to try to draft if you can.

A lot of these keepers are young, and this team could struggle this year if these keepers don’t improve quickly enough, but I think the risk is worthwhile and manageable through smart drafting. 

Tell me what you think.

Read more!

Here're Some Keepers - The Dinos

The Dinos finished fifth last year, but I think they’ll have one of the strongest groups of keepers heading into the draft, and I think they will definitely be in playoff contention in 2009.  Here’s the roster. 

The Dinos

Bobby Abreu (LAA - OF)     

Carlos Beltrán (NYM - OF)   

Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B,3B)           

Robinson Canó (NYY - 2B)  

J.D. Drew (Bos - OF)

Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos - OF)    

Chase Headley (SD - 3B,OF)

Adam LaRoche (Pit - 1B)      

Adam Lind (Tor - OF)           

Melvin Mora (Bal - 3B)         

Albert Pujols (StL - 1B)         

Iván Rodríguez (NYY - C)    

Miguel Tejada (Hou - SS)      

Jim Thome (CWS - Util)        

Chase Utley (Phi - 2B)           

Gavin Floyd (CWS - SP,RP) 

Armando Galarraga (Det - SP)          

Jim Johnson (Bal - RP)          

Cliff Lee (Cle - SP)    

Tim Lincecum (SF - SP)        

Brett Myers (Phi - SP,RP)     

Troy Percival (TB - RP)         

Andy Pettitte (NYY - SP)     

Ben Sheets (Mil - SP)

Tim Wakefield (Bos - SP)      

Brad Ziegler (Oak - RP)        

There are quite a few fantasy studs on this team.  Let’s run down a list of the no-brainers: Albert Pujols won his second MVP award last year, and he is a top-three fantasy player.  He should be completely healthy after his October surgery, so he’s definitely in.  Tim Lincecum announced his arrival as one of the elite young pitchers in the game by winning the NL Cy Young award winner last year.  He did pitch a very high number of innings last year, but most people seem to think that his unusual pitching motion keeps him from putting stress on his arm.  I definitely think he has another good year in him.  Miguel Cabrera is another no-brainer; he set career highs in HR and RBI, though his OPS was his first under .900 since 2004.  He’ll be 26 in April and is completely capable of repeating these numbers. 

Carlos Beltran is also a no-brainer, but I felt it was time to start a new paragraph.  He hits for power, runs, and plays in a strong lineup.  He is getting older, but he should have another 25/20 year in him.

Chase Utley is coming off of hip surgery, and early reports had him out for all of April.  Utley has said that he thinks he could be ready by Opening Day.  Even if he misses most of April, Utley is still the best second baseman in baseball when healthy.  He’s going to be around 30 HR, .300 BA, 100 RBI, and at least 10 SB.  Keep without fear.

Jacoby Ellsbury took a big step forward in his first full-season, stealing 50 bases and scoring 98 runs.  A third of those steals came in the month of May, but he is definitely capable of stealing 50 bases again this year.  He had a couple of bad months in June and July, but the rest of the season he hit .298.  He think he belongs on this team as a keeper because of his ability to score and steal bases.

I think for this last spot, we have to pass over the 2008 Cy Young winner, a slugger who hit 34 HR last year, and two touted outfield prospects to take Bobby Abreu.  Abreu is getting older and will probably have trouble getting to 20/20 this year, but he does chip in a solid combination of batting average, power and speed.  His value will depend mainly on where he hits, but the Angels scored only 24 Runs less than the Yankees last year, so Abreu will get his opportunity to produce RBI and Runs. 

I think Abreu is a safer option for the last keeper spot than these players: Cliff Lee had an incredible season last year, but he has never been this good before and I’m inclined to bet against a 30-year-old repeating an elite year with no prior track record of greatness.  He could be good again, but I think Abreu is a better option here.  Abreu will go in the first round of our draft; Lee won’t.  Jim Thome is solid value for people looking for HR and RBI, but his slugging percentages have been trending downward, as has his batting average.  Pick him up in the middle of the draft where you can get the most value out of him.  Adam Lind and Chase Headley both have had success in the minors; while I like Lind better this year than Headley, I don’t think either one of them will be productive enough this year to warrant a keeper pick on.  I think Lind deserves some consideration for next year, but try to get him in the draft instead.

I’m always appreciative of feedback.

Read more!

Una Vez Mas Keepers - Screaming Lemurs

We’re halfway done with our look at possible keepers for each team in my Yahoo H2H league, now let’s look at our first playoff team, Screaming Lemurs.  The Lemurs finished 6^th last year, but they have a lot of fantasy depth to choose from, so I expect they’ll finish higher this year.  Here’s the roster.

Screaming Lemurs

Rocco Baldelli (Bos - OF)     

Michael Bourn (Hou - OF)    

Ryan Braun (Mil - 3B,OF)     

Mike Cameron (Mil - OF)      

Jorge Cantú (Fla - 1B,3B)      

Carl Crawford (TB - OF)       

Chris Davis (Tex - 1B,3B)     

Jermaine Dye (CWS - OF)     

Curtis Granderson (Det - OF)             

Cristian Guzmán (Was - SS)               

Willie Harris (Was - 2B,3B,OF)        

Ian Kinsler (Tex - 2B)

Víctor Martínez (Cle - C,1B) 

Plácido Polanco (Det - 2B)    

Aramis Ramírez (ChC - 3B)  

Luis Ayala (Min - RP)           

Joba Chamberlain (NYY - SP,RP)    

John Danks (CWS - SP)        

Justin Duchscherer (Oak - SP,RP)     

Frank Francisco (Tex - RP)    

Cole Hamels (Phi - SP)          

Jensen Lewis (Cle - RP)         

Brandon Morrow (Sea - SP,RP)        

Oliver Pérez (NYM - SP)       

Max Scherzer (Ari - SP,RP)   

Salomón Torres (Mil - RP)     

Brandon Webb (Ari - SP)      

Lot of players to choose from, but the guy ranked highest by nearly everyone is Ryan Braun.  Braun is an excellent keeper because he’s talented and he’s just entering his prime.  The only questions are will he improve on last year’s batting average and will he continue to give you 15 steals.  I think the answer is yes.

The next pick is another player in the midst of his prime, Ian Kinsler.  Kinsler has had health problems the past two years, so it’s possible that we may not see his best stats until he’s healthy.  If he can play a full year, expect good power/speed numbers for a second baseman.  I think another 20/20 season is in order.

Carl Crawford also had injury problems last year, which led to a career-low 25 steals.  Expect him to closer to 50 steals this year as he should stay healthy.  He’s never going to hit 20 HR, but he’s in his prime so be happy with the high SB totals.  On average, he’s being drafted in the third round at Mock Draft Central. 

Curtis Granderson is a decent power/speed combo for the outfield position, though I don’t think he’ll improve much on 2007’s numbers.  I think the power is there, but I don’t think he’ll be stealing 30 bases.  He’ll provide good run totals and a decent average, but I think that what we see is what we get with Granderson.

I feel like Aramis Ramirez doesn’t get enough fantasy love.  He’s been a solid performer at third base for most of the decade, knocking in over 100 RBI six out of the past 8 seasons and averaging 29 HR over the same period.  He’s not old yet, only 31 in June, so I think it’s reasonable to expect another 100 RBI season with 30 HR and an average near .300. 

There are quite a few guys that I’d want on my team that I’m forced to leave off, but let’s go with two elite pitchers for our final two spots.  Brandon Webb has 70 Wins over the past 4 years, while averaging 177 Strikeouts over his career.  His ERA has never been higher than 3.59, and it’s 3.24 for his career.  He’ll be 30 in May, so there’s no reason I can think of that he won’t provide solid, elite numbers in 2009.  Cole Hamels proved me wrong last year when I was down on him because of injury issues in 2007 by having a great 2008.  He set career-highs in innings pitched, strikeouts and ERA.  The only worry I have about him is the high amount of innings he pitched in the regular season and the playoffs, more than 70 innings higher than the previous year.  But I think you have to take a chance on an elite talent like this.

A few words on the guys left off: I had a hard time not taking Jermaine Dye because of how solid his power numbers have been the past four years, but I think that this team is already set in the outfield with the three keepers.  Chris Davis is getting a lot of preseason hype because of the 17 HR he hit in 80 games last year, his first season in the league, and while I like him for this year if I can get him in the 8^th round or later as a slugging third baseman, I don’t think he can displace any of the established players listed above.  I think Victor Martinez will bounce back this year, but his value is down and he can be drafted later.  Joba Chamberlain, Max Scherzer, and Brandon Morrow are all talented young pitchers who should start this season in their teams’ rotations, but let’s not anoint them too soon by spending a keeper pick on them.

Let me know what you think.

Read more!

Here's More Keepers - Dissect Yourself

Let’s look at the keepers for Dissect Yourself.  Dissect Yourself finished first in the consolation playoff bracket last year, so they will have the first pick in the draft, which could help them make the jump into the championship playoff bracket.  Dissect Yourself has a good mix of upcoming and established talent, so they could be one All-Star away from being in playoff contention.  Here’s the roster.

Dissect Yourself

Clint Barmes (Col - 2B,3B,SS)          

Hank Blalock (Tex - 1B,3B)  

Jay Bruce (Cin - OF)  

Eric Byrnes (Ari - OF)           

Ryan Doumit (Pit - C,OF)     

Brian Giles (SD - OF)

Matt Holliday (Oak - OF)      

Orlando Hudson (Ari - 2B)   

James Loney (LAD - 1B)      

Mike Lowell (Bos - 3B)         

Xavier Nady (NYY - OF)     

Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B)        

Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF) 

Troy Tulowitzki (Col - SS)    

Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B) 

Jayson Werth (Phi - OF)        

Josh Willingham (Was - OF)  

Dave Bush (Mil - SP) 

Ryan Franklin (StL - RP)       

Jon Lester (Bos - SP) 

Mike Mussina (NYY - SP)    

Carlos Mármol (ChC - RP)    

Roy Oswalt (Hou - SP)          

Chris Pérez (StL - RP)           

Chad Qualls (Ari - RP)          

CC Sabathia (NYY - SP)       

Dan Wheeler (TB - RP)         

Though Matt Holliday’s value will undoubtedly take a hit with the move to Oakland, he is a good enough hitter that he should still give you a .300 BA, 25 HR and 100 RBI.  He’s not first-round material anymore, but he’s still a talented hitter in his prime.  The 28 SB were a nice surprise last year, but let’s not count on him doing that again, especially since his new team does not run very much. 

Alfonso Soriano has not been an iron man since coming to the Cubs, but when he plays, he rakes, hitting 62 HR in 244 games with the Cubs.  I think he’ll give you close to what he’s done the past two years, something like 30 HR with 20 SB.  He’s a solid source of speed and power. 

Brian Roberts has been pretty steady over the past three years, never hitting worse than .286, never stealing less than 36 bases, scoring less than 100 runs once, and nearly hitting 10 or more HR each season.  Despite not coming close to repeating his career-high 18 HR season, his slugging percentage has been trending upward for the past three years, as have his doubles totals.  It appears that he’s sacrificing fly ball hits for line drives, resulting in more doubles and helping his batting average.  I think we can expect another solid season from him, with another 40 SB.

C.C. Sabathia put together one of the best half-seasons for a pitcher in recent years, and he now finds himself with a new contract playing in front of one of the better offenses in the league.  Sabathia will be a little overrated going into this season, only because of how well he pitched in the second half and because of the high amount of innings he’s pitched over the past two years.  It’s possible that Sabathia will miss a start or two this year (in fact I expect it), but I think he’ll put together another solid, though probably not elite, season.  He’ll strikeout a good number of batters, and he should be in line for a good amount of wins since he pitches deep into nearly every game.

I didn’t like Roy Oswalt heading into last year because of the way his k/9 rate was trending down the last few years, but he rebounded to post a solid 7.12 k/9 rate last year.  Even if the strikeouts aren’t elite, Oswalt is still a good enough pitcher to give you a solid WHIP and ERA.  If not for a few bad starts in April and May last year, Oswalt would have had much better numbers for the season.  As it was, he turned it on in June, pitching his way to an ERA of 2.44 for the rest of the year.  Oswalt should have another solid season this year, with around 15 Wins. 

Jay Bruce was heavily-hyped when he came up last year.  He didn’t put up Ryan Braun numbers, but 21 HR in 413 at bats as a 21-year-old is nothing to sneeze at.  Bruce put up great numbers in the minors, something that I expect we will see him repeat in the majors some day.  I think he will hit for power this year, but struggle to maintain a good BA.  He’ll need to improve on his BA against lefties and on the road from last year.  He’s young, so there will be some slumps, but this kid has the kind of talent that you have to hold onto in keeper leagues.    

Dissect Yourself has a good amount of depth, so it was a little hard filling this last spot.  Dan Uggla is a good option as a keeper, providing the type of power you don’t normally see from a second baseman, but since we already kept Brian Roberts, I felt it would be good to have a little positional balance heading into the draft.  Ryan Doumit is a catcher I like for this year; if he stays healthy he could be a top-five catcher, but he does have a bit of an injury history.  He’s a great hitter, but I think there is more depth at catcher than people might think, and good value can be found later on in the draft.  James Loney is young and talented, but he’s never been much of a power hitter.  While I like Loney’s ability to hit for average, it’s good to have power from your corner infield slots, and I don’t think Loney will even hit 20 HR this year.  Xavier Nady was a bit of a surprise last year, but it looks like he might lose at bats in a crowded Yankees outfield, plus he’s never had 500 at bats before, so it’s hard to say that he will repeat last year’s production.  I think the pick here has to be Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulowitzki had a great rookie year and then a disappointing sophomore season last year.  He missed a lot of time with injuries, but he did have a couple good months when healthy, and he appears to be good to start the season.  I think we see him return to numbers closer to his 2007 year.  

Let me know what you think.

Read more!

Once More, Keepers - Self Indulgence

Time to do another one.  Let’s look at the possible keepers for Self Indulgence, who will be known this year as Orc Mischief.  Here’s the roster.

Self Indulgence 

Orlando Cabrera (CWS - SS)

Johnny Damon (NYY - OF)  

Andre Ethier (LAD - OF)      

Ken Griffey Jr. (CWS - OF)  

Carlos Guillén (Det - 1B,3B,SS)       

Jerry Hairston Jr. (Cin - 2B,3B,SS,OF)         

Aubrey Huff (Bal - 1B,3B)   

Derek Jeter (NYY - SS)         

Chipper Jones (Atl - 3B)        

Matt Kemp (LAD - OF)        

Jeff Kent (LAD - 2B)

Hideki Matsui (NYY - OF)   

Joe Mauer (Min - C)   

Carlos Peña (TB - 1B)

Mark Reynolds (Ari - 3B)      

Denard Span (Min - OF)        

Jose Arredondo (LAA - RP) 

Aaron Cook (Col - SP)          

Brian Fuentes (LAA - RP)     

Brandon Lyon (Det - RP)      

Gil Meche (KC - SP) 

Johan Santana (NYM - SP)   

Scot Shields (LAA - RP)       

Andy Sonnanstine (TB - SP) 

José Valverde (Hou - RP)      

Chien-Ming Wang (NYY - SP)         

Carlos Zambrano (ChC - SP) 

Here are three no-brainers, but I call them no-brainers for three different reasons.  Johan Santana is a no-brainer because he’s been arguably this best pitcher in the major leagues since he became a full-time starter in 2004.  The man is consistent, and I think we can expect another stellar season from him. 

Matt Kemp is a no-brainer, not because he’s a fantasy stud, but because he could be a fantasy stud for many years to come, starting with this one.  I think the power will come, and we could be seeing a 30/30 season from him in the next few years. 

Joe Mauer is a no-brainer because he is one of the best hitters, not just at his position, but in the entire league.  He won’t hit for power like Brian McCann, and he won’t run like Russell Martin, but he does hit for average.  He’s entering his prime, so be ready for a good season, barring injury.

After those three, we have Chipper Jones, a third baseman who has had more than 500 at bats in a season once since 2003, but who is really good when he plays.  Despite his age and his injury history, I think Jones is one to keep on this team as long as you expect him to miss a quarter of the season.  His main calling card these days is his ability to get on base, which he does by being selective and making contact.  Enjoy it if he reaches 500 at bats, because you could have really good value for him if he does.

Derek Jeter is definitely starting to fade, but I think we can expect one more season of double digit HR and SB with a BA near .300.  He can be overrated in drafts, but he’s fine as a keeper for this team. 

Carlos Pena has hit 77 HR over the past two seasons after struggling to find playing time the two years prior.  I don’t think he’ll hit 40 HR again, but between 30 and 35 is reasonable to expect.  I also don’t think that we can expect him to repeat his .282 BA from 2007; his .247 average from last year is more in line with his career stats.

For the last spot, I think we have to pick another fading Yankee, Johnny Damon.  Damon had one of his stronger seasons last year, but at the age of 35, I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to continue performing at that level.  I still think he’ll provide good value this year, but it seems likely that his SB will drop closer to 20.  I’d take the under on him hitting 15 HR this year as well.

Some quick thoughts on the players I passed up on: Andre Ethier could take another step forward this year, but he’ll be available later in the drafts.  Aubrey Huff showed some great power last year, but I think his draft-day value will be suppressed as people wonder if he can repeat it.  I think he can repeat, but he should be relatively cheap on draft day.  I don’t like Carlos Zambrano this year at all, as his k/9 has been trending downward the past few years, and the high number of innings pitched in his career may be catching up with him.  I’d take him if he fell to the middle rounds, but I think he’ll go too high based on his name value.

I think this team has some interesting pieces for next year and a good mix of power and speed, but I think they'll need to get a little younger if they want to be competitive over the next couple of years.  Let me know what you think.

Read more!

More and More Keepers - Val Kilmer's A**hole

Let’s take a look at the next team in our league, Val Kilmer’s A**hole, now known as Order of the Phoenix (Mark likes to change his team names a lot).  They have a good mix of talent, but a couple of these fantasy studs are starting to see the far side of their careers.  Let’s look at the roster.

Val Kilmer's A**hole

Lance Berkman (Hou - 1B,OF)         

Michael Cuddyer (Min - OF) 

David DeJesús (KC - OF)     

Mark Ellis (Oak - 2B)

Jason Giambi (Oak - 1B)       

Troy Glaus (StL - 3B)

Josh Hamilton (Tex - OF)      

Jeremy Hermida (Fla - OF)    

Mike Napoli (LAA - C)         

David Ortiz (Bos - 1B)          

José Reyes (NYM - SS)         

Scott Rolen (Tor - 3B)           

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tex - C,1B)   

Freddy Sánchez (Pit - 2B)     

Vernon Wells (Tor - OF)        

Joe Blanton (Phi - SP)

A.J. Burnett (NYY - SP)       

Matt Cain (SF - SP)   

Ryan Dempster (ChC - SP,RP)         

Jeff Francis (Col - SP)           

J.P. Howell (TB - SP,RP)      

Scott Kazmir (TB - SP)          

Jonathan Papelbon (Bos - RP)           

B.J. Ryan (Tor - RP)  

Huston Street (Col - RP)       

Justin Verlander (Det - SP)    

The no-brainer picks here are Jose Reyes, Lance Berkman, and Josh Hamilton.  These guys are studs, and all three usually go in the first two or three rounds of a draft.  Reyes is one of the top-five players in fantasy baseball because of his success on the base paths; he’s averaged 64 SB along with 113 Runs the past four years.  Reyes will even give you double-digit HR for good measure, with some possible room for growth as he matures into his prime.  Even with a possible lineup move out of the leadoff spot, Reyes is the type of young star you can build a team around.

Though he’s not young anymore, Berkman is another type of star that you love to have on your team.  He shows consistent power, a career BA of .302, and he’ll even steal a base or two (though I don’t think anyone of us expect a repeat performance of his career-high 18 SB last year).

Josh Hamilton has had a superb season and a half in the big leagues now, and I think it’s all right to expect him to continue to rake this year as well.  He carries a little more risk than the other two players I’ve talked about, but he could have just as much talent. 

If these three players are no-brainers, let’s call the next two players Guys-you’d-want-but-have-to-take-a-second-to-think-about.  They are David Ortiz and Vernon Wells, and the reason that you’d want them is because of what they’ve been able to produce, and the reason you’d think for a second about taking them is that they are probably not those players any more.  Ortiz missed time last year with a wrist injury, and though it seems to be fully healed, can we expect him to be the Big Papi of old?  I think Ortiz will be fine next year, with an OPS around .900, though I do think he will miss having Manny Ramirez in the lineup.  Wells also missed time last year and the year before due to injury, though he did hit well in 2008 when he played.  I don’t think we can expect Wells to run like he did in 2007 and 2006, but I think he can be a top-25 OF if he stays healthy.  

Let’s hear the familiar refrain: “I don’t like to keep pitchers.”  But looking at the players we have left, there’s not much keeping me from doing that.  Jonathan Papelbon was a top-five closer last year, and there’s little reason to think he won’t repeat that.  He lowered his walks drastically while setting a career-high in innings pitched, and he struck out 10 batters per nine innings.  Papelbon is good value here.

I’m not big on this last player, but who else could we keep?  Jason Giambi, Scott Rolen, and Troy Glaus are all former stars, but they’re all old and dealing with injuries.  Mike Napoli is a catcher I like for this year, but only because he’s being underrated in the drafts.  A.J. Burnett is talented but inconsistent.  So let’s go with Scott Kazmir, who is also inconsistent and misses a few starts each year, but has more talent than Burnett.  Kazmir will most likely miss a few starts this year, but he gives you an elite K/9 and he plays for a good offense.  Just be wary of a late season collapse like last year’s.

So how’d I do?  Let me know what you think in the comments.

Read more!

Even More Keepers - Butt Admirals

Time to take a look at possible keepers for the Butt Admirals.  The Admirals finished in 10th place last year, so let's see how good their chances look heading into the draft.  For those wondering what I'm talking about, check out some of the previous keepers posts to find out.  Here's the roster.

Butt Admirals

Carlos Delgado (NYM - 1B) 

Edwin Encarnacion (Cin - 3B)          

Prince Fielder (Mil - 1B)        

Kosuke Fukudome (ChC - OF)         

Vladimir Guerrero (LAA - OF)         

J.J. Hardy (Mil - SS)  

Nate McLouth (Pit - OF)       

Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B)     

Kelly Shoppach (Cle - C)       

Grady Sizemore (Cle - OF)    

Fernando Tatis (NYM - CI,OF)        

Willy Taveras (Cin - OF)       

Marcus Thames (Det - 1B,OF)          

Ryan Theriot (ChC - 2B,SS)  

Joey Votto (Cin - 1B,OF)      

Rickie Weeks (Mil - 2B)        

Scott Baker (Min - SP)          

Josh Beckett (Bos - SP)         

Jorge Campillo (Atl - SP,RP) 

Dan Haren (Ari - SP) 

Bobby Jenks (CWS - RP)      

Ubaldo Jimenez (Col - SP)    

Scott Olsen (Was - SP)          

Mike Pelfrey (NYM - SP)      

Joakim Soria (KC - RP)    

     

The obvious picks are Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore, and Dustin Pedroia.  Sizemore is a legit first-rounder entering his prime who has averaged 26 HR, 28 SB, and 116 Runs over the last four years.  He does tend to strikeout often, hurting his batting average, but his upside for 2009 is a consecutive 30/30 season.  Fielder will mash; I don’t think he’ll hit 50 HR this year, but I think 40 are definitely in reach.  Pedroia, the reigning AL MVP, will be overrated in drafts this year, but he does have value at a shallow position.  Pedroia will always hit for average, but I’m not sure that he’ll repeat his 17 HR from last year.  I’m thinking a more conservative estimate might be 15 HR, 18 SB, with a batting average around .320.  The Admirals will be happy with anything more than that.

3 spots down, 4 to go.  I think that Joey Votto has to be a keeper on this team.  He had a strong minor-league career, he raked in his first pro season, and he’s only 25.  He may regress this year, but the Admirals should keep him with an eye towards the next six years.

If you’ve read my previous posts, then you know how I feel about pitchers.  Nevertheless, Dan Haren was a top-ten starter last year, and he has the talent to repeat.  Some encouraging signs to note: Haren was able to cut down on his walks and raise his strikeouts last year, leading to a ridiculous 5.15 K/BB ratio.  Even if he regresses a bit, Haren will still be an elite pitcher.

I liked Nate McLouth a lot going into 2008, but I like him less for this year.  Funny the difference a year makes.  McLouth still provides good value, but I think last year’s numbers represent a ceiling for him.  McLouth had some inconsistent months last year, and I think that will continue to be the case for him.  I say bank on another 20/20 season with serviceable batting average, and be thankful for anything else he gives you. 

For the last spot, I’m going to dismiss the rest of the pitchers.  Joakim Soria is an elite closer who tends to be underrated because of his team, but while I don’t like to keep pitchers, I never like to keep closers.  Even elite closers can turn into pumpkins, so it’s better to go with a bit safer pick.  Josh Beckett has a lot of talent, but he does tend to spend some time on the DL each year.  When he’s healthy, he can be a top-ten pitcher, but it’s better to stay away from pitchers with an extensive injury history if possible.  J.J. Hardy has shown good pop at shortstop the past two years, but it’s his streakiness that concerns me.  Last year he had three months where he was bad to average, and three months where he was very good.  In mock drafts, I’ve been seeing him go in the middle rounds to fill the MI roster spot; he could put a very good year together this year, but it might be better to wait and pick him up in the draft.

I can see an argument for keeping Hardy, but I’m going the opposite direction and recommending that the Admirals keep a player with a lot of miles on him but who should have one more good year left.  That’s right, I’m going with Vladimir Guerrero.  Vlad is not the five-tool, 40/40 threat (or even the 30/15 threat) he once was, but I think he’s got one more top-20 outfield season in him.  What gives me hope is that with the Bobby Abreu signing, the Angels have more outfielders than they know what to do with, enabling them to give Guerrero a lot of starts at DH.  Hopefully limiting his time in the field will limit the amount of time he spends on the DL this year.  If he can get 550-600 at bats, then put him down for another 30 HR season.

Once again, feel free to let me know how smart or dumb I am in the comments.

Read more!