Keepers Part XI

Finally, we come to our 2007 League Champion, Nate (Naterade) Swanson. Naterade had a very consistent squad that allowed him to be consistently competitive from week to week. I don't think he'll be able to maintain that same consistency in 2008, as most of his keeper options are declining veterans or young players who've yet to fully realize their upside. Naterade will likely struggle a bit, but if some of his players decide to breakout this year, he'll be in contention for another title.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

Naterade

The Hitters
Bobby Abreu (NYY - OF)
Asdrubal Cabrera (Cle - 2B,SS)
Stephen Drew (Ari – SS)
Rafael Furcal (LAD - SS)
Matt Kemp (LAD - OF)
Howie Kendrick (LAA - 1B,2B)
Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD - 3B)
Adam LaRoche (Pit - 1B)
James Loney (LAD - 1B)
Mike Lowell (Bos - 3B)
Nick Markakis (Bal - OF)
Russell Martin (LAD - C)
Manny Ramírez (Bos - OF)
Justin Upton (Ari - OF)
Delmon Young (Min - OF)

The Pitchers
Brian Burres (Bal - SP,RP)
Doug Davis (Ari - SP)
Matt Garza (TB - SP)
Chad Gaudin (Oak - SP,RP)
Félix Hernández (Sea - SP)
Bobby Jenks (CWS - RP)
Francisco Rodríguez (LAA - RP)
Rafael Soriano (Atl - RP)
José Valverde (Hou - RP)
David Weathers (Cin - RP)

The Keepers

1. Nick Markakis
Only 23 last year, Nick Markakis flirted with a 20/20 season in his second full year with the Orioles. A .296 hitter for his career, Markakis caught fire in the second half of last season, hitting .330/14/68. Markakis also hit 43 doubles in 2007, and as he gets older he should start to turn some of those doubles into home runs, especially if improves on his GB/FB ratio. Baltimore does not have much in the way of offensive firepower, but Markakis should find a lot of opportunities for RBI chances hitting third in the lineup. Markakis will be a top-15 outfielder this year, with a shot at making the top 10 if his power continues to grow and if he learns to hit lefties a bit better (.278 for his career). Markakis should provide power and speed and will again flirt with 20 HR and 20 SB.

2. Russell Martin
Russell Martin is another young player who, like Markakis, nearly had a 20/20 season in his second year. Martin showed a lot of speed as a catcher, stealing 21 bases last year. The catcher with the second-most SB was Joe Mauer with 7, so Martin will give you a lot of production in a category that most catchers aren’t really known for. The only thing that will keep Martin from stealing 20 bases again is himself; Martin appeared in 151 games last year and really wore down as the season progressed, only stealing six bases after June. Martin is young, so he should steal at least 15 bases again this year, but if he doesn’t allow Joe Torre to give him a day every now and again, he’ll continue to lose steam as the season goes on. The flip side to his strong desire to be in the lineup every day is that you know he’s always going to try and compete, no matter how he feels. Martin’s power should continue to grow as he matures as a hitter, so there’s no reason not to expect him to be an annual 20 HR hitter. Martin’s one of the top catcher’s in baseball, a description that should fit him for the next few years.

3. Felix Hernandez
Fantasy owners have long-awaited “King” Felix Hernandez’s ascension to the throne as baseball’s best pitcher. While 2008 is not the year that sees an end to their wait, Hernandez should take another step closer to being named one of baseball’s elite pitchers. Even though he’ll only be 22 in April, Hernandez has already amassed 30 Wins in less than 3 seasons. A talented pitcher, Hernandez still has to work on using that talent consistently; last year his successes rarely carried over from game to game. Hernandez does have the base skills that every fantasy owner should look for in a pitcher. He keeps the ball on the ground (his 2.66 GB/FB ratio was 8th in the league last year), he strikes out batters at an elite level (7.80 K/9 in 2007, better than Carlos Zambrano and John Lackey), and he has solid command (3.11 K/BB last year, better than Roy Halladay and Scott Kazmir). These three skills are what turn good pitchers into great pitchers. As long as Hernandez stays healthy, he should continue to mature into a great pitcher. He’ll be a top-20 pitcher in 2008.

4. Manny Ramirez
Manny Ramirez will be 36 in May, and his career has begun to decline, but of all the possible keepers on Nate’s roster, Manny has the best chance to hit 30 or more home runs. While last season was one of the worst of his career offensively (Manny failed to hit 30 home runs for the first time in nine years), he did have a three-month stretch in which he looked like his old self. From May to June, Manny hit .330/15/55, but he started to slump again in August before being shelved for 24 games with a strained left oblique. If Manny can stay healthy, focused and competitive for the next year, he will finish the year as a top-fifteen outfielder. He still has elite skills; he just needs to prove that he can still use them. I think a .310/30/110 is not out of reach for him.

5. Rafael Furcal
Rafael Furcal was another hitter who disappointed in 2007, stealing only 13 stolen bases over the first five months of the season before finishing strong with 12 SB in September. Furcal sprained his ankle in a collision during spring training last year, and it appears that he never fully recovered as his production throughout the season was inconsistent. By all accounts, Furcal’s ankle is completely healthy, and he’s already proved he’s ready to run by hitting two triples in eight spring training games. Furcal’s ability to steal might limited if Juan Pierre, a notorious free-swinger, doesn’t learn how to take a pitch, but 30 steals are not out of reach. I believe that Furcal should finish with stats somewhere between his 2005 and 2006 numbers, good enough to be a top-six shortstop.

6. Delmon Young
Delmon Young has long been an enticing fantasy prospect. A former number-one pick, Young showcased his power and speed in the minors, hitting .320 with 26 HR and 32 SB between AA and AAA in 2005 at the age of 19. Young has the talent to hit .300/25/25 but he needs to work on his plate discipline; he walked just 26 times last year while striking 127 times, limiting his ability to get on base and utilize his speed. A move to Minnesota should help him in many ways; Young’s average was 24 points when playing away from Tropicana field, and being a part of a successful program will hopefully foster a sense of professionalism in him. Despite his short career, Young has gained a reputation of immaturity, and the chance to prove himself to a new team could mean a breakout season in 2008. Young probably won’t gain more RBI opportunities playing for the Twins – their offense was worse than Tampa Bay’s last year, and that was before they lost Torii Hunter – but being surrounded by established stars such as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau should take the pressure off of him to succeed right away. Young might not be a top-20 outfielder next year but he should be soon, and his upside is too high not to take a chance on.

7. Matt Kemp
Matt Kemp is another five-tool young player looking for a chance to prove himself. In just 292 at bats last year, Kemp hit .342/10/42/10 leading many to hope for a 20/20 season in 2008 with a full season of at bats. Kemp does have the talent to be a top-20 outfielder this year, the only questions is whether he’ll get enough at bats to prove himself. With Juan Pierre in left and Andruw Jones in center, Kemp will most likely share playing time in right with Andre Ethier, barring a trade. I believe that Kemp will get the majority of at bats in left this year; he has much more talent then Ethier and he’s doing everything he can this spring to prove that he’s ready for a full-time job, hitting .324 with 2 HR, 9 RBI and 2 SB in just 34 at bats. Kemp will need to work on his plate discipline, and he won’t maintain his high BA from 2007, but he should continue to improve as a player. Nate already has a lot of outfielders, but Kemp’s upside, like Young’s, is too great to be ignored.

The Also-Rans
Playing for a new contract, Mike Lowell turned in a career year at the age of 33, hitting a career-high .324 (44 points above his career average) with 120 RBI. Lowell has shown a consistent power stroke since coming to Boston, hitting at least 20 HR for the past two years, but it does appear that his power might be beginning to fade. Lowell had less extra-base hits in 2007 than in 2006, and his home run rate was almost the same despite hitting more fly balls in 2007. Lowell’s .324 average in 2007 was probably helped by luck and is unlikely to be repeated; he struck out more times than in 2006 when his average was closer to his career numbers. Lowell will be a decent middle-round option, but a regression from his 2007 numbers is more likely than a repeat. Bobby Abreu could probably provide similar value to Young and Kemp in 2008, but I think he’s more likely to continue to decline as a player. Abreu is 34 and his attempts to steal have been declining for a few years. Abreu also seemed to be less patient at the plate, posting one of the lowest BB/K ratios of his career. Again, Abreu has value, but the upside that Young and Kemp have in a keeper league is more valuable. Nate has told me he’s likely to keep Justin Upton for next season to avoid losing him to another owner. Upton has talent, there’s no denying it, but he may still be a few years from realizing that talent. With only 259 at bats at the AA level, Upton most likely needs another year at the minors to work on his skills. I’m not going to complain if Nate decides to use one of his keeper spots on Upton, because I think it overvalues him and it means one more player available for the eighth round. If Nate is right and another owner would value Upton highly enough to take him in the first ten rounds, then I say drop Upton and let that foolish owner reach for him. Upton has the upside to be great, but he’s only twenty and not worth risking a top-120 pick. James Loney is a good first base prospect who’ll hit for good average – though not as good as the .331 he hit last year – but I’m not convinced he’ll hit 20 HR yet. He offers good value in the middle rounds for those waiting to take a first baseman, but I’d still take Nick Swisher and Carlos Delgado over him. Howie Kendrick will hit for average, but it may take time for him to do anything else. He’ll probably be more of a line-drive hitter who might steal ten bases, but his main value lies in his ability to hit for average. Second base is shallow so he probably won’t last after the tenth round, but I’d rather wait and grab someone like Placido Polanco or Kelly Johnson in the 13th-16th rounds. Stephen Drew is another young middle infielder looking to take advantage of his potential, but Nate already has Furcal at short. While I think he’ll take a step forward this year, Drew will most likely be available after the 16th round in the draft.

Nate, while I must admit there is a lot of upside on your team, I don’t think your squad will be strong enough to repeat as champions this year. You don't have much infield depth, and that may be hard to overcome. It’s going to take a solid draft for you to be competitive in 2008, but seeing as I wasn’t that impressed with the talent on your team last year, I am willing to concede that you may surprise next year. Good luck to you.

That’s it for my look analysis of each team’s keepers in my Yahoo H2H league. Our draft is coming up this weekend; hopefully before then I’ll be able to do a mock draft of the first round. Once the draft is finalized, I’ll be evaluating how each team did by round. Let’s get ready for some baseball.

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Keepers Part X

We move now to our second-place finisher in 2007, the Macafeys. Managed by Tim Ledoux, the Macafeys finished first in the regular season due to a impressive collection of speed and power, solid relief pitching, and a heavy reliance on streaming. The Macafeys ultimately lost in the championship round, but the abundance of talented young players on their roster should again make them competitive in 2008. Let's take a look.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

The Macafeys

The Hitters
Billy Butler (KC - 1B,OF)
Adam Dunn (Cin - OF)
Alex Gordon (KC - 1B,3B)
Brad Hawpe (Col - OF)
Ian Kinsler (Tex - 2B)
Derrek Lee (ChC - 1B)
Wily Mo Peña (Was - OF)
Mark Reynolds (Ari - 3B)
Jimmy Rollins (Phi - SS)
Álex Ríos (Tor - OF)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tex - C,1B)
B.J. Upton (TB - 2B,3B,OF)
David Wright (NYM - 3B)
Kevin Youkilis (Bos - 1B,3B,OF)

The Pitchers
Homer Bailey (Cin - SP)
Chad Cordero (Was - RP)
Kevin Gregg (Fla - SP,RP)
Trevor Hoffman (SD - RP)
Kei Igawa (NYY - SP)
Aaron Laffey (Cle - SP)
Brandon McCarthy (Tex - SP,RP)
Joe Nathan (Min - RP)
Jeff Suppan (Mil - SP)
Brett Tomko (KC - SP,RP)
Barry Zito (SF - SP)

The Keepers

1. David Wright
If it wasn’t for a certain 2007 AL MVP, David Wright would be the best third baseman in baseball. As it is, being number two is not a bad place to be, especially if you’re also considered one of the top three hitters in fantasy baseball. Wright went 30/30 in 2007, one of only three players to do so last year, and the only third baseman of that elite group. Wright provides great production in all five categories, rare for a corner position, and he’s still yet to reach his prime. He’s even shown the ability to increase his understanding of the strike zone, as shown by his career-high 94 walks last season. Wright should flirt with another 30/30 season in 2008, and he’ll finish the season as one of the top-five fantasy hitters in the MLB.

2. Jimmy Rollins
Shrewd drafting over the past couple of years as allowed Tim to acquire two first-round keepers in their primes. Jimmy Rollins is a top-three shortstop who also went 30/30 last year. He proved that the 25 HR he hit in 2006 were no fluke, topping that number with a career-high 30 HR last year. Rollins’ power growth as arrived over the past two years, but he’s always been a great base-stealer, averaging 35 steals a year since his rookie season, topping 40 three times. Rollins took a while to get going last year, hitting .250 and going homerless in May, but he hit .310 the rest of the way to win the NL MVP award. Rollins plays in a favorable ballpark, and bats leadoff for a powerful lineup, so a 130 runs scored should again be achievable. Even if his power regresses, he’ll still provide 20+ HR with 35-40 SB, and I believe that this is the year he hits .300. Another solid 5-category producer.

3. B.J. Upton
Continuing a trend of infielders with power and speed, B.J. Upton is another young player with 25/25 potential. I don’t think his .300 BA in 2007 was for real and I do expect BA regression in 2008. Upton struck out once every 3.08 at bats in 2007, by far the most frequent rate among .300 or better hitters last year. Upton cannot sustain that high of a batting average unless he cuts down on his strikeouts. I think an average around .275-.280 is more likely. Upton is a star in the making, but he did appear to become overmatched as the season went on, hitting .260 and striking out 69 times in 205 at bats from August to September. Expect him to take a step back in 2008, but the power and speed is for real, he will only need some experience before he can improve upon his 2007 numbers.

4. Alex Rios
I’m already jealous of the talent that Tim has accumulated with his first four keepers, as each of these hitters provides, at the very least, four-category production. Alex Rios has long tantalized fantasy owners with his 20/20 upside. He’s never matched his potential, mainly due to the fact that he tends to wear down over the course of the season, only exceeding 481 at bats once in his career. Last season he appeared in 161 games, hitting .297/24/85/17, and it’s this kind of production that makes me think he’ll be a top-15 outfielder in fantasy baseball. Heck, if it all falls together for him, he could be top-10, but I’m not expecting it. Rios needs to improve his numbers against right-handed pitching if he wants to be a .300 hitter. I don’t think he’ll improve that much on his 2007 numbers, but even if he doesn’t, he’s still a solid contributor in nearly all areas.

5. Adam Dunn
By now we all know what to expect from Adam Dunn; he’s a durable player who swings for the fences, providing you with a low batting average and a high number of home runs. Over the past four years, Dunn has averaged 158 games played, 41 home runs, and a .250 batting average. Tim already has a few guys on his team who hit for a high average, so he can afford the effects of Dunn’s poor batting average in order to reap the benefits of his power. With the benefit of a favorable home stadium, Dunn should continue to mash, and his power will place him among the top-20 outfielders. Of course, Tim wouldn’t have Dunn if I hadn’t traded him for Morgan Ensberg in 2006, right before Ensberg took a dive in the second half, crapping all over my season. Let’s move on.

6. Derek Lee
Derek Lee is getting older, and last year was a bit disappointing for those expecting his fourth 30 HR season, but Lee is still a top-ten first baseman for 2008. As long as he’s healthy, he should be good for 25 home runs and a .300 average. I don’t see him reaching double-digits in steals, but he could be good for 8. What gives me hope for a power resurgence for Lee is that he got better as the year went on, with 16 of his 22 home runs coming after June. What doesn’t give me hope is that he’s not hitting as many fly balls as he once did. Lee still has the power to hit 30 HR, but he can’t do it if he doesn’t hit the ball in the air. I’m still confident that he has another top-ten first baseman season in him, so go ahead and keep him.

7. Alex Gordon
Alex Gordon was another player who disappointed fantasy owners in 2007, as the “fabled heir” to George Brett ended up playing like just another rookie. Expectations aside, if we judge Gordon’s season on its own merits, 60/.247/15/60/14 is quite respectable for a 23-year old facing his first major league competition. AJ Mass at ESPN.com recently discussed how the hype surrounding Alex Gordon skews our perception of his final 2007 stats. As for me, I know that Tim already has two good corner infield options, but I say you have to take another chance on Gordon, if only because he could be one of the few 1B/3B eligible players to go 20/20 this season. It might take some time for him to get that batting average up to a respectable area, but the power and speed are there. Gordon has enough upside to justify taking the CI spot on Tim’s roster.

The Also-Rans
Tim has a couple players that could be kept instead of Gordon, but I like his upside too much to recommend them over him. Brad Hawpe showed continued power growth in 2008, hitting 29 HR in just 516 at bats, but I think he’ll have trouble hitting .290 again if he continues to struggle so badly against left-handers (.224 against them over the past three years). I think he’ll be a solid outfield option, but there’s enough outfield depth that Tim can afford to pass on him. Ian Kinsler is another guy who went 20/20 in 2007 (geez Tim, how many of those guys did you have last year?), but I don’t think he does it again next year. His power really left him in the second half last year, only six home runs, though he did miss most of July due to injury. He does provide a good combination of power and speed, but his inability to hit right-handers keeps his average down, and besides, Tim already has a 2B-eligible Upton on his squad. There’s a quartet of closers that Tim has the option to keep, but Joe Nathan is the only one I would consider keeping, and I wouldn’t take him over Alex Gordon. Nathan’s averaged 40 saves and 88 strikeouts over the past four years that he’s been Minnesota’s closer, so he’s definitely valuable, but there will be many closers available in our draft, so Tim should do fine without Nathan. Trevor Hoffman is still a good closer, but he’s older and getting more unreliable every year. Kevin Gregg was a surprise closer last year for the Marlins, but he still doesn’t have the job security needed for a closer to be deemed keeper-worthy. Chad Cordero is another closer whose skills have been slipping, as his K/BB rate has steadily decreased over the past three seasons; he could find himself traded or passed over for another option like Jon Rauch. Billy Butler has the skills to hit .300 this year, but he hasn’t displayed much in the way of power yet, and Kansas City is not necessarily the best place to find Runs and RBI. He has value, but wait until the later rounds to get him. Kevin Youkilis will give you a good average, okay power, and a good amount of Runs, but Tim already has his corner infield spots locked up, so he’s redundant.

Tim, you have a very impressive collection of players with both power and speed. Four top-50 players in a 12-team league is an excellent base to start from. I think Tim could be the team to beat in 2008.

All right, one more team to go. Hopefully by Sunday I’ll have posted my look at Nate’s team and will have finished my series of keeper analysis for each team in my league.

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Keepers Part IX

Our third-place finisher in 2007 was Ben Posluch’s Screaming Lemurs. The Lemurs have a nice pool of rising stars to choose from, with an emphasis on speed. I expect them to contend for the championship again in 2008. Let’s look at their keeper options.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

The Screaming Lemurs

The Hitters
Ryan Braun (Mil - 3B)
Carl Crawford (TB - OF)
Jack Cust (Oak - OF)
Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos - OF)
Curtis Granderson (Det - OF)
J.J. Hardy (Mil - SS)
Jason Kubel (Min - OF)
Víctor Martínez (Cle - C,1B)
Hideki Matsui (NYY - OF)
Kazuo Matsui (Hou - 2B)
Aramis Ramírez (ChC - 3B)
Matt Stairs (Tor - 1B,OF)
Miguel Tejada (Hou - SS)
Jim Thome (CWS - Util)

The Pitchers
Heath Bell (SD - RP)
Jonathan Broxton (LAD - RP)
A.J. Burnett (Tor - SP)
Matt Capps (Pit - RP)
Manny Corpas (Col - RP)
Kelvim Escobar (LAA - SP)
Yovani Gallardo (Mil - SP)
Cole Hamels (Phi - SP)
Tim Lincecum (SF - SP)
Francisco Liriano (Min - SP,RP)
Carlos Mármol (ChC - SP,RP)
Brandon Webb (Ari - SP)


The Keepers

1. Carl Crawford
Carl Crawford is a solid source of steals and batting average, with a decent amount of RBI thrown in for good measure. His career BA is .296, and over the past 5 years he’s averaged 53 stolen bases. He’ll be 26 to start the season, so there’s no reason to think he can’t steal another 50-55 bases in 2008. What keeps him from being a first-rounder for me is the fact that I don’t see him hitting more than 15 home runs next year. After he hit 18 home runs in 2006, it appeared that he was ready to join the 20/20 club, but he disappointed those expectations by hitting only 11 home runs in 2007. He did set a career high in doubles with 37, so you know that he can still drive the ball, but what keeps him from turning those doubles into home runs is his ratio of ground balls to fly balls hit. He just doesn’t hit enough fly balls to be a 20/20 man, which is a good thing because the more ground balls he hits, the better he’s able to take advantage of his amazing speed. Crawford hit a career-high .315 in 2007, but I expect that number to drop this year as he also struck out a career-high 112 times. I think Crawford will hit .300 with 13 home runs, 75 RBI, 95-100 runs scored, and 50-55 stolen bases.

2. Curtis Granderson
Curtis Granderson could almost be considered Carl Crawford lite; they’re close to the same age, both outfielders, they hit lots of triples, they’re both leadoff hitters with some pop, but Granderson is the only one of the two to have a 20/20 season on his resume. Crawford has more value because of his stolen bases and greater reliability, but Granderson can move into the top-ten starting outfielders if he can prove that last year’s numbers were not a fluke. Granderson might have trouble hitting .300 again if he can’t improve his ability to hit left-handed pitching; he hit .160 against them in 2007 and .218 the year before. Luckily for him the best left-hander in the division just moved to the National League. Granderson should be good for another 100+ runs hitting leadoff in the high-powered Detroit lineup, and he should be a threat to repeat his 20/20 performance from last year, but expect a drop in batting average.

3. Ryan Braun
Speaking of 20/20 players, Ryan Braun is one of a handful of third basemen projected to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases this season. The 2007 Rookie of the Year had a monster season, hitting 34 home runs with 97 RBI in just 451 at bats. The only question is can he continue to produce at such a high level? Well I definitely don’t think he’ll hit .324 again, not unless he improves his plate discipline. Of all the players with at least 400 plate appearances in 2007, only one other player (B.J. Upton) managed to also hit .300 or better and have a worse strikeout rate. Braun cannot maintain his .324 BA if he continues to strikeout once every 4 at bats. I think Braun is more likely to hit around .300 this year, especially since he’ll face more right-handed pitching this year, against whom he hit .282 in 2007. Braun crushed lefties last year, but he does have to face five pretty good righties in his division: Carlos Zambrano, Aaron Harang, Roy Oswalt, Ian Snell, and Adam Wainwright. Braun can be a great player, but until he proves that he can handle the adjustments that major league pitching will have made for him, I’m hesitant to project better than last year’s output with a .300 BA. Great numbers, but not yet first round material.

4. Victor Martinez
With Victor Martinez on your squad, you are set for a year of solid production from the catcher’s position, though you will have to spend a high draft pick to get him. That’s what happens when you have a durable catcher who’s averaged 21 home runs and 98 RBI over the past four seasons, along with a career BA of .301. Martinez should again be the best catcher in fantasy baseball. A switch-hitter, he doesn’t have any noticeable weakness from either side of the plate, and a solid Cleveland offense – assuming Travis Hafner rebounds and Ryan Garko’s development continues – should provide many opportunities for RBI and run-scoring chances. Cleveland keeps him fresh by spotting him at first base and DHing him, providing him more plate appearances than the normal catcher. As a hitter in his prime, Martinez should have no problem matching last year’s production.

5. Aramis Ramirez
As long as Aramis Ramirez can stay healthy, he should be a solid 2nd-tier third baseman in 2008. But can he stay healthy? In 2007, Ramirez suffered through tendonitis in both his right wrist and his left knee, making one 15-day trip to the DL in June. According to The Disabled List Informer, some of the causes of patellar tendonitis are “1) deconditioning; 2) muscle weakness; 3) overuse/overtraining; 4) faulty foot posture; and 5) recent weight gain with sustained activity (i.e. you get fatter and expect to perform the same frequency and intensity of working out).” Ramirez has missed the first five games of spring training due to a sore throwing shoulder, so it’s hard to tell how ready he is to start the season. Despite being injured most of last year, Ramirez did hit .310 with 26 HR and 101 RBI, and he’s averaged 30 home runs a year over the past seven years. Ramirez is a talented, patient hitter, and even if he has to make a trip to the DL – which is likely – he still is a good bet to hit close to 30 HR with 100 RBI and a .290 BA. Not bad numbers for a corner spot.

6. Brandon Webb
An annual Cy Young contender, Brandon Webb is one of the top pitchers in the NL, right behind Johan Santana and Jake Peavy. He set career highs in 2007 in strikeouts, wins, ERA, and innings pitched. He increased is K/9 rate to 7.39 last year as a result of using his changeup in conjunction with his dominating sinker. I don’t think he’ll strike out 200 batters in 2008, mostly because he needs to pitch a lot of innings to rack up the K’s, and not many pitchers can pitch 225+ innings for multiple years in a row without getting fatigued. Webb didn’t seem to tire much late in the season last year, as he had a 42 scoreless innings streak between July and August. Webb’s ability to keep the ball on the ground and to throw his pitches for strikes makes him a valuable fantasy commodity. My favorite qualities in a pitcher are an ability to keep the ball in the park and throw for strikes, and Webb has those in spades. Keep an eye on his walks in 2008, as there was a sharp increase from 59 in 2005 and 50 in 2006 to 72 last year. Webb should be a top 5 fantasy pitcher this year.

7. Tim Lincecum
The Screaming Lemurs have a few talented young pitchers on their 2007 roster that they could tab as keepers for this year, but I’m going to go for the pitcher with the least amount of injury risk. Tim Lincecum will struggle for wins in San Francisco, but he plays in a very favorable ballpark, as opposed to the bandbox in Philadelphia that Cole Hamels calls home. He was actually better on the road than at home with a .211 BAA on the road and a .241 BAA at home. Lincecum had a great strikeout rate in 2007 of 9.23 per nine innings, comparable to Santana’s and Peavy’s. He plays in a division with some very good pitchers parks, and a couple average offenses. He doesn’t give up a lot of home runs and he has a good K/BB ratio of 2.31. As a second-year player, Lincecum will face some hurdles as hitters adjust to him, but he’s got a lot of talent and upside.

Wait a minute – why am I recommending taking the second-year pitcher over the proven veteran? Here I am, all set to name Lincecum the 7th keeper of the Screaming Lemurs squad when Miguel Tejada is right there. Posluch has to keep Tejada, if only because there is a major drop off in talent after the first ten shortstops, and most of those guys will be protected as keepers already. There’s going to be a lot of starting pitching depth in our draft, and Lincecum could be had in another round or two. If Posluch doesn’t keep Tejada, he’ll probably have to wait a few rounds to take Johnny Peralta or Khalil Greene.

Okay, forget everything I said about keeping Lincecum. For the Lemurs 7th keeper:

7. Miguel Tejada
ESPN projects Tejada to hit 26 home runs in 2008. I’m not exactly buying it – I mean he hit 18 in 2007 (with an injured wrist) and 24 in 2006 – but I think 20-22 homeruns are in reach. Now, I think 22 is his ceiling, but that’s not that far from 26, so if Tejada shows the type of power that he did after returning from wrist injury, when he hit 10 HR in August, then he could hit more than 22. Call me a cynic though, as I think that all the steroid allegations surrounding Tejada result in less than 26 HR. Tejada should hit for a good average, and the dimensions of his new home should help him, so I do think that Tejada should still be considered a top-ten shortstop. The depth at that position drops off quickly outside of the top-ten, so Lemurs have to take him, and they should feel good about it too. Tejada’s a good pick if we expect numbers somewhere in between his ’06 and ’07 seasons.

The Also-Rans
The Lemurs have a quartet of promising rookie pitchers with questions surrounding them. You’ve already heard my thoughts on Lincecum, who I like but will probably struggle a bit in his second year. Cole Hamels has great stuff, striking out 322 batters in 315.2 innings to start his career, but he already has a history of injuries. He suffered a strained shoulder in 2006, and strained his pitching elbow in 2007, limiting him to just six starts in the last two months of the season. Hamels should be healthy to start the season, and he’ll most likely be the best available pitcher in the draft, but I think he’s a bit of an injury risk, so I’ll pass. Yovani Gallardo is another good young pitcher with a bright future, but he is coming off knee surgery and will probably miss the start of the season. Draft him, but not in the first seven rounds. Francisco Liriano pitched great in 2006, but had to undergo Tommy John surgery that off-season, causing him to miss all of last season. He’s back now, but don’t expect his 2006 numbers right away, as he’ll probably need some time to get back into form. Again, all four of these pitchers have talent, but we don’t quite know what to expect from them as they haven’t pitched long enough to have a track record. Coupled with some injury risk and I say wait on them. Hideki Matsui is another player returning from injury – he had knee surgery in November – who should put up decent numbers, but he’s not a top-25 outfielder. You can draft outfielders just like him without the gimpy knee and with a bit more speed in the 9th and 10th rounds. Jim Thome is old, but he can still mash, as shown by the 77 home runs he’s hit over the past two seasons with the White Sox. I think Thome is a good bet to hit 30 home runs again, as long as you aren’t afraid of his DH-only eligibility. He’s a very good value pick if he lasts to the 9th round, which he might if people just look at his age and not his recent production. J.J. Hardy could be a good replacement if you miss out on a top-ten shortstop; he’ll struggle to match his 2007 home run total, but he could hit 20 HR with an okay average.

Ben, you’ve got a decent mix of speed and power, though you could look to add a slugger with your first pick. One position that you might have to reach to fill is first base, as almost all of the first and second tier 1B’s will be protected as keepers, and guys like Carlos Pena will probably be drafted by the time you pick. You have a nice foundation and I have no doubt that you’ll draft well enough to fill any glaring needs.

Just two more teams left to look at, and then I’ll try to look at how each team in my league should draft in the first round, if there’s time. Our draft is coming up, and I do want to be prepared.

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Keepers Part VIII

Continuing my analysis of each team’s keepers from my Yahoo league, we take a look at the Tossers, managed by my heterosexual life partner, Troost. The Tossers finished fourth in 2007, and they have a decent mix of speed and power to carry over to next year. Lots of veterans on this team, so they may want to use 2008 to get a little younger. Let’s look at the Tossers.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.


The Tossers

Hitters
Garret Anderson (LAA - OF)
Barry Bonds (SF - OF)
Mike Cameron (Mil - OF)
Travis Hafner (Cle - 1B)
Corey Hart (Mil - OF)
Torii Hunter (LAA - OF)
Conor Jackson (Ari - 1B)
Jeff Kent (LAD - 1B,2B)
Jeff Keppinger (Cin - 3B,SS)
Julio Lugo (Bos - 2B,3B,SS)
Nate McLouth (Pit - OF)
Jorge Posada (NYY - C)
Álex Rodríguez (NYY - 3B)
Scott Rolen (Tor - 3B)
Gary Sheffield (Det - 1B,OF)
Michael Young (Tex - SS)

Pitchers
Jason Bergmann (Was - SP,RP)
Joe Borowski (Cle - RP)
Ubaldo Jiménez (Col - SP)
Derek Lowe (LAD - SP)
Pedro Martínez (NYM - SP)
Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP)
Wandy Rodríguez (Hou - SP,RP)
Takashi Saito (LAD - RP)
Curt Schilling (Bos - SP)
Carlos Zambrano (ChC - SP)

The Keepers

1. Alex Rodriguez
There is no reason not to want Alex Rodriguez on your fantasy team in 2008, and it’s hard to argue that he shouldn’t be taken number one. He’s a slugger in his prime on one of the best teams in baseball. Since joining the Yankees, he’s averaged 43 HR, .303 BA, 128 RBI, and 22 stolen bases. You can almost guarantee 35 HR, .300 BA, 120 RBI, and 20 SB, and there’s a great chance that his numbers will be better than that. There’re no obvious signs that his skills are declining, so we should expect another MVP-caliber season from A-rod. He’s a reliable superstar, and that’s exactly what you want in a first-round pick.

2. Travis Hafner
Travis Hafner had a down year in 2007 compared to huge numbers he put up in 129 games in 2006. He started out strong hitting .338/.471/.550 in May, but then his numbers went into a nose dive before he finished strong by hitting .316/.414/.551 in September. In the four months in between, he never hit better than .253, never had an OBP over .400, and never slugged better than .455. It would be nice to assume that he was suffering from some kind of lingering injury, but Hafner never complained of one and he appeared in a career-high 152 games. It’s possible that we can attribute his offensive struggles to bad luck; he had a contact rate of 79%, his best since coming to the majors, but his hit rate was 30%, 4% less than his three-year average previous to 2007. Hafner should rebound, especially if he can cut down on his GB/FB ratio, but a return to his 2006 numbers is no sure thing. Expect numbers closer to his 2005 season.

3. Michael Young
Michael Young is one of the more dependable hitters at the shortstop position. He’ll hit over .300 and chip in double-digit home runs and stolen bases. His greatest value is his ability to hit for contact, which is helped by his strong line-drive rate, but don’t discount the steals and home runs that he chips in. His power is declining, but his speed is still there, so a repeat of his 2007 numbers is within reach. Young might have trouble scoring runs in the Rangers offense without Mark Teixeira around to knock him in, but he could come close to 100 RBI if the team bats him in the 3rd spot the majority of the time, as they did in 2007. Young’s numbers have historically been better hitting 2nd rather than 3rd, so pay attention to where he spends his time in the lineup during spring training.

4. Takashi Saito
Takashi Saito was one of the best closers in baseball last year, and while his numbers will most likely regress from last year, he should be a very good closer option in 2008. He improved his K/BB and BB/9 ratios, and his ground ball rate jumped by 10%. There are some warning signs as his HR/FB rate rose, and his strand rate was a very high 88%. History says that pitchers with high strand rates usually regress to normal levels the next year, which leads to a rise in ERA. Barring injury or an impatience on the part of Dodgers’ management to see Jonathan Broxton take over the role. Saito will have a good chance to save 30+ games in 2008.

5. Torii Hunter
Torii Hunter is a dependable outfield option; he’ll provide a mix of power and speed with a decent BA. He’ll benefit from playing with the Angels, a team that scored more runs and attempted more stolen bases in 2007 than Hunter’s old team, the Twins. Hunter is getting older, but there’s no evidence that he can’t come close to his 2007 stats this year; though his batting average will most likely a few points, he should steal around 20 bases in 2008. Click here to read my thoughts from November when Hunter’s new deal was announced.

6. Corey Hart
The Brewers gave Corey Hart a chance to earn a spot in the outfield in 2007, and he rewarded the team and fantasy owners alike with what could be the first of many 20/20 seasons. Hart has a favorable GB/FB ratio, which could lead to an increased home run output as he reaches his prime (he’ll be 26 when the season begins). One area he’ll have to work on is walking more and striking out less, which could be helped as he gets more at bats against major league pitching. Watch where he bats in the Brewer’s lineup; he split time with Rickie Weeks in the lead off spot, but he also had 119 at the 5th spot. Where he hits might play a part into how much he runs or how many RBI chances he gets. Either way, he’ll be a good source of both power and speed.

7. Gary Sheffield
Gary Sheffield is getting older, and his body isn’t holding up as well as it used to, but when healthy, Sheffield still has the skills of a very dangerous hitter. Sheffield started slow last season with a poor April, but from May-July he hit .320 with 21 home runs. He missed 23 games between August and September due to a collision with Placido Polanco that resulted in a sore shoulder. Sheffield had surgery in October that uncovered a torn labrum. As of last week, Sheffield has been swinging a bat without any pain, and he expects to be ready by Opening Day. The Tigers plan to use Sheffield mainly as a DH, which should keep him from risking further injury in the field. If Sheffield is healthy for a full season, 30 home runs is not out of reach. Sheffield still has good plate discipline, so his batting average should rebound from last year. I’m not certain if he’ll steal 22 bases again, which were his most since 1990, but double-digit steals should be attainable.

The Also-Rans
Troost could easily keep Mariano Rivera over Saito, as his 9.34 K/9 last year was his highest since 1996, and his 6.17 K/BB was his best since 2003. But his .248 BAA was his highest since his first year in the league. Rivera is still a good closer, but I like Saito just a little bit more for next year. Carlos Zambrano was a top-ten pitcher in 2006, but he was barely worthy of the top-30 last year. Both his K/9 and K/BB rates decreased and it’s possible that the 215 innings he’s averaged over the past five seasons have sapped his effectiveness. He won’t be a top-ten pitcher if he can’t limit his walks. Jorge Posada could be a good keeper option at catcher if because of the scarcity of the position, but Troost could probably draft him again in the middle rounds if he wanted. Jeff Kent is another reliable, aging player who Troost could pick up later in the draft. Conor Jackson hasn’t shown that he’s ready to hit 25+ home runs, so he should be relegated to the end of the draft with the other good contact, mediocre slugging first basemen. Mike Cameron could provide an undervalued 20/20 season, even though he’s suspended for the first 25 games. His suspension should make it easy to grab him late, which I suggest you do. He’ll hurt your average, but there aren’t too many power/speed options that late in the draft. Nate McLouth is another guy I’ll be watching in spring training, because I think he’s capable of going 20/20 as well if he wins the center field job over Nyjer Morgan. Definitely worth a late round gamble.

Troost, you don't have the strongest group of keepers, but they should be solid this year. You'll need to target some stars entering their primes if you want to contend next year and the year after that.

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It's all in the wrist.

Over at The Disabled List, there's an in-depth analysis of Ryan Zimmerman's wrist surgery and how it might affect him during the upcoming season. The creator of The Disabled List offers to provide credible expertise and insight from a fantasy standpoint into the aches and pains that trouble major league players. Check his blog out and send him a question.

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AL Central vs. NL East: How will the move to a new division affect Johan Santana

Mike Bock of the blog Fantasy Hurler had a post on Wednesday analyzing how the move to the NL should affect Johan Santana's production in 2008. You can read that post here.

I agree with him on a few points (there is more offense to be found in the AL than in the NL, the move solidifies Santana's spot in the first round), but I felt that we shouldn't overrate the impact pitching in the NL East as opposed to the AL Central will have on his season. I looked at the two divisions and found them to be fairly comparable in offensive production in 2007. Here is the response to Mike's column that I posted in the comments thread.


"I agree that the offenses in the NL are inferior to the AL, but I don't think we should overestimate is move to the NL East.

Anyways, if you compare the offenses in the NL East and the AL Central from 2007, excluding the Mets and the Twins, to two divisions are actually pretty comparable. Below are each team's runs and OPS totals from 2007, with their league rankings in parentheses.

Runs
NL East
PHI - 892 (2)
ATL - 810 (9)
FLA - 790 (13)
WAS - 673 (30)

AL Central
DET - 887 (3)
CLE - 811 (8)
KC - 706 (27)
CWS - 693 (28)

OPS
NL East
PHI - .812 (2)
FLA - .784 (7)
ATL - .774 (9)
WAS - .715 (28)

AL Central
DET - .802 (4)
CLE - .771 (11)
CWS - .722 (26)
KC - .710 (29)

Now obviously FLA won't have such good offensive totals in 2008 due to the loss of Miguel Cabrera, so we could drop them down to a little below average, and we can raise Detroit a little higher due to adding Cabrera. PHI should be an elite offense again in 2008. ATL has lost Andruw Jones, who had a poor year anyways, but they will now have a full season of Mark Teixeira, so mark a little bit of a gain for ATL. CLE will have better numbers if Hafner has a normal year. The White Sox added Nick Swisher, but that won't make them more than an average offense at best. WAS moves to a more hitter friendly home park in 2008, so that should help a little bit. KC should still be awful in 2008.

As far as park factor goes, MIN was actually a better pitchers' park in 2007 than NY, according to the run-scoring park factors on ESPN. MIN actually hasn't had hitter friendly park factor numbers since 2005.In all, I agree there are some great offenses in the AL Central, but top to bottom, they are only a little better than the ones in the NL East. Santana should be the best pitcher in 2008 and he'll love getting to face the pitcher, but we shouldn't overrate the affect moving to his new division will have if we are comparing offenses."

Mike responded to my comments in a new post yesterday. I've pasted the section of his post that directly dealt with my comments.

"AL Superiority a Mirage?

I love hearing from readers! Ben Westrup, of the awesomely titled I Hate Matt Berry blog, has offered a lengthy explanation as to why I've overrated Johan's move from the AL Central to the NL East. To wit, comparative run production and OPS numbers are either insignificantly different, or slightly in the NL East's favor.

Anecdotally, it seems that many pitchers get hammered moving from the NL to the AL (Schilling, Johnson, etc.). Could that be a mirage?

Let's look at the likely 3-4-5 hitters of the respective teams:

Detroit: M. Cabrera, Sheffield, M. Ordonez
Minnesota: Mauer, Morneau, Delmon Young
Cleveland: Sizemore (he should be), Hafner, V. Martinez,
White Sox: Thome, Konerko, Swisher
Kansas City: Teahen, Sweeney, Gordon? (you've got me here)

Washington: Zimmerman, Dmitri Young, Austin Kearns? (*vomit*)
Florida: Willingham, Hermida?, Jacobs?
Mets: Wright, Delgado, Beltran (Johan won't face this bunch!)
Braves: C. Jones, M. Teixeira, McCann
Phillies: Howard, Utley, Burrell

Notice a pattern?

Two of the four teams that Johan will be frequently taking the mound against next year have hitters in the heart of their order who might not crack Detroit's starting lineup. Instead of Cleveland and Detroit, he gets Florida and Washington. Additionally, the best of Johan's adversaries in the NL East (Howard, Teixeira, Jones) are either lefties or switch hitters; he'll be facing their off-hands.

I ran the league ERA and WHIPs. They were surprisingly close, about a tenth of a run apart in ERA, and only one hundredth of a percentage apart in WHIP. Looking at these lineups, what appears to be happening is that the NL East pitchers are doing more with less talent, probably because they aren't facing hitters nearly as good as those in the AL Central. I'd say that the DH/pitcher affect is being somewhat obscured by the fact that AL Central pitchers are simply better, across the board. Which is probably reflected in the fact that six or seven AL Central SPs (if we include Santana) will be going in the first eight or nine rounds next year, and about two NL East'ers will be.

It's also worth noting that the move to the NL means that vicious AL East (4126 runs scored) has been swapped out for the paltry NL West (3731 runs scored). That's a big differential! Dividing the run differential amongst the various franchises, the AL East teams scored approximately half a run more per game than their NL West counterparts.

I hate looking at wins as a measuring stick for pitchers, but finally, consider this: New York players crossed homeplate 86 more times than Minnesotans last year. With a bit more run support, I doubt we'll see Santana with only 15 wins again this year."

Ultimately we agree that Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, who should be a first round draft pick, and whose new league can only help his stats. But when I look at the AL Central, I just don't see it as being that much better than the NL East. I do think it is better, but I don't think the gap is as big as Mike does. If we discount the team that Santana is leaving and the team he is moving to, we have two poor offenses (K.C. and WAS), two elite offenses (DET and PHI), two above average offenses (CLE and ATL), one average offense (CWS) and one average-below average offense (FLA). I think, based on their production from last year and the players gained and lost, that the AL Central is only a little better than the NL East in terms of offense.

I'd love to hear if you think I'm wrong, right, or whatever.

Either way, check out the good stuff the guys at Fantasy Hurler are posting.

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Consistency: The Hallmark of a Head to Head MVP

I've primarily played in Head to Head leagues over the past seven years, and one thing I feel that is lacking in the majority of fantasy analysis is strategy for that format. H2H is a very different beast from the Roto format. Because of the weekly matchups in H2H, it doesn't matter what your players did last week, it only matters what they will do this week. Having players that are consistent and not streaky will help to alleviate any headaches you might have from week to week. Weekly consistency in a player's production is not something I've ever taken into consideration on draft day, but I think it's something we should all be aware of when participating in a H2H league.

I decided to take a look at the top 40 homerun hitters in 2007 to see which ones were either feast or famine from month to month and which ones were steady throughout. I wanted to see how many of these hitters had months of 4 or more homeruns, 5 or more homeruns, and 6 or more homeruns. I chose to look at homeruns because it is one of the few outcomes in which the responsibility solely rests with the hitter. RBI and run totals are too dependent on the rest of the team, and to look at those numbers from month to month wouldn't tell us anything about trends. The same goes for batting average, as opposing defense plays into that as well.

This is more of an informative exercise rather than a predictive one. Players still can contribute in other categories when they're not hitting homeruns and, for the most part, their value should not be predicated on that one category. I'm not suggesting that we reassign value to these hitters based solely on how many homeruns they hit from month to month, but I do think it is good for H2H players to look back at last season to remember how a player ended up with the season totals that he did. I don't have the time or information to do the research it would take to establish the presence, or lack there of, of any trends, so this is purely for informative purposes only.

Here are some players that stood out when I looked at their homerun totals for each month.

- Aramis Ramirez finished with 26 homeruns but he hit more than 5 homeruns in a month only three times. From June-August, Ramirez hit a combined total of 5 homeruns. Ramirez struggled with wrist and knee injuries, which contributed to missed time doing those months, but I'm sure it wasn't fun for H2H owners who basically had no power production from their third baseman for half the season.

- Khalil Greene was a fine source for middle infield power, hitting 27 homeruns last year, 3rd most among all shortstops, but he hit more than 4 homeruns in a month only three times. Greene hit half his homeruns in June and September, but hit only nine homeruns combined in May, July and August. Greene hit a lot of doubles during those months, so his power wasn't gone, but he had homerless streaks of 16, 17, and 23 games, providing zero homerun value in weekly matchups during those time periods.

- Magglio Ordonez had an MVP-caliber season last year, but he had three months where he hit less than four homeruns. More than half his homeruns were hit in May and August; he hit 10 homeruns the rest of the year. May and August were the only months that he hit more than five homeruns in. He carried fantasy teams with his homerun totals in those two months, but he was nearly a non-entity for homers the rest of the time.

- Mark Teixeira has lots of power potential, but he's been streaky the past couple of years. 2007 was no exception; in May, August, and September he combined for 24 homeruns, and he averaged 2 homeruns a month the rest of the year. For H2H owners who drafted him to win homerun matchups, those three months must have been very disappointing.

- Alfonso Soriano was one of the streakiest homerun hitters in the league. He hit 25 of his 33 homeruns in June and September. Soriano would have had more homeruns, but he missed most of August with a torn quad. Discounting August, he still only hit 7 homeruns in April, May and July, likely costing his H2H fantasy owners dearly in that category.

- Matt Holliday also had an MVP-caliber season, hitting 36 homeruns, including 12 in September. But he also had three months where he hit averaged a little more than 3 homeruns a month; not very MVP-like in H2H baseball.

- Jimmy Rollins won the NL MVP, hitting 30 homeruns, and he must have made things easier on H2H owners by hitting 4 or more homeruns in a month five times, and 6 or more homeruns in a month three times. Except for a homerless May, Rollins was exactly the kind of homerun hitter H2H want.

- Chris Young had a similar season to Rollins, hitting 5 or more homeruns in a month three times, and 4 or more homeruns in a month five times.

- Carlos Beltran hit six or more homeruns in a month five times last year, on his way to 33 homeruns for the season.

- Alex Rodriguez, our 2007 homerun champion, was the epitome of consistency. He averaged 9 homeruns a month, and hit less than 7 in a month only once.

As a participant in a H2H league, you would hope that your sluggers projected to hit 25 or more homeruns would give you one homerun a week, otherwise it's that much harder to beat your opponent in that category. Consistency helps a lot, but that's not going to make me shy away from guys like Magglio Ordonez or Mark Teixeira on draft day. Anyone can have a good or bad month; it's important to make the most out of your players' matchups every day in order to maximize your chances of beating your opponent each week.

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