What People Are Saying

- Eric Hz at Fake Teams has six sleepers for deeper AL/NL only leagues.

Two interesting names on the list are RP Dennis Safarte and OF Fred Lewis who could end up having value in mixed leagues if they are given enough playing time.

- Chris Neault at The Disabled List Informer has updates on John Smoltz, Freddy Sanchez, and Brad Lidge.

Since I'm counting on Lidge to provide 30 saves this year, I'm hoping that his stay on the DL keeps him fresh and healthy and doesn't serve as a precursor for more stays to come.  

I like Smoltz and had him last year, but I don't know how long he can continue to be a top ten or fifteen pitcher.  There's no way that each injury doesn't continue to nag him throughout the year.

- Bob Taylor of Fantasy Hurler bemoans the Jarrod Saltalamacchia demotion, which results in him having to pick up "Gerald Fucking Laird".

I like Saltalamacchia and think he'll have a great career, but it doesn't seem that he's ready to be a major league catcher.  It may be better to move him to first base to get his bat in the lineup, but he still struck out 75 times in just 308 at bats in his first season in the major leagues.  He probably needs a bit more time in AAA, but I expect he'll be back up in Texas before the season is over.

As for Laird, I'm glad I don't have to rush to the waiver wire to pick him up, but it was only a year ago that Laird was the player being mentioned as a sleeper at catcher after hitting .296 with seven home runs in 243 at bats in 2006.  Laird has some good pop, so he's not a bad choice, especially if you are in a league that requires two catchers.

- Also over at Fantasy Hurler, Mike Bock takes issue with some of the moves that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti has made in the past couple of years.

I do agree that we overpaid for Juan Pierre, who might be overtaken by Andre Ethier as the starting leftfielder, and Jason Schmidt, but I have to disagree with his other opinions.

Colletti signed Rafael Furcal for three years/$39 million, which is a lot of money, but Furcal was one of the Dodgers best players in his first season with the team, hitting .300/15/63/37. It's likely that Furcal could have repeated those numbers in 2007, but a spring training collision with teammate Jason Repko left him with an ankle sprain that hindered him throughout the year.  Now that he's healthy, Furcal should be one of the top ten shortstops in the league.

Nomar Garciaparra has little to no value now, but he was the Comeback Player of the Year in his first year with the Dodgers, hitting .303/20/93 in 2006.  Garciaparra is just taking up space now that James Loney is ready to take over at first, but he was one of the team's better offensive players in 2006.

I liked that the Dodgers were able to get Luis Gonzalez for 2007; he was a decent insurance policy in case Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier faltered.  Gonzalez's 15 HR were actually tied for third on the power deficient team.  It was just a one-year deal, so Gonzalez allowed the Dodgers to bring their young outfielders along slowly without blocking them long term.  

Derek Lowe has been the Dodger's most consistent starting pitcher over the last three years; he's pitched nearly 200 innings every year that he's been on the team, and he's averaged 13 wins with an ERA between 3.61 and 3.88.  I don't see how you can go wrong with having a rotation stalwart like that on our team.

- Eric Stashin at Roto Professor notes that Homer Bailey has been sent down, but he should be back up soon.

Edinson Volquez, acquired from the Rangers for Josh Hamilton, has beaten Bailey out for a rotation spot by striking out 26 batters in 20 innings this spring training with a 2.70 ERA. Volquez is starting to pique everyone's interest and he's definitely someone to stash away if you can.  

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Eugenio Velez: Cheap Source for Steals

For those speculating on steals, Giants utility player Eugenio Velez could be someone to watch.

Splitting time between Single-A, AA, and AAA, Velez stole 118 bases over the past two seasons. With 3b Kevin Frandsen likely out for the season, Velez should have a chance to find playing time all over the infield. Velez stole nine bases this spring, and could be a 30-SB sleeper if he can continue to get on base, giving him great value if he gains third base eligibility.

Only five or six third basemen are likely to come close to 20 steals, and Velez should get at least that if he can get a full season worth of at bats.

For those looking to replace injured speedsters such as Kaz Matsui or Jerry Owens, Velez might be worth taking a flier on.

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Rich Harden looks strong in win.

Rich Harden pitched well in his first start of the season, receiving win in a 5-1 game over Boston.

Harden struck out nine and gave up three hits in six innings, the only run against him coming off a two-out home run by Manny Ramirez in the sixth inning.

The only problem Harden had was being inefficient with his pitches, only throwing 63% of his pitches for strikes. Harden walked three and needed 95 pitches to get through six innings.

This is good news for those taking a chance on Harden being able to stay healthy through the whole season. When healthy, Harden has the ability to be one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball. In 317.2 innings from 2004-2005, Harden had a 3.42 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 8.16 K/9 rate.


On another note, Oakland outfielder Emil Brown hit a home run in the same game against starter Jon Lester. Brown offers little value, but he might have some value against lefthanders for those in deeper leagues with daily transactions. Last year, Brown hit .317 against lefthanders. I almost picked up Brown for today's game because he was facing a lefty. I don't recommend picking him up unless you're desperate, but some value is there.

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Kelvim Escobar's Injury Setback

For those hoping that Kelvim Escobar would come back sooner than later, it looks like your prayers have gone unanswered.

Escobar was diagnosed with inflammation in his pitching shoulder back in September, and he has yet to pitch a game in spring training.

Escobar had recently begun doing some light throwing, but now it appears that he is suffering from "renewed discomfort" and his recovery date "will certainly be pushed back now, possibly into June."

This is not good news for Escobar owners, as Escobar is certain to deal with injury throughout the year, and at best will give his owners half a season. Chris Neault at The Disabled List Informer now projects Escobar to finish with numbers around 13 starts, 80 innings pitched, six wins, and 65 K's.

To Jonathan, manager of the Dinos and Escobar owner, my condolences. Not to rub it in, but I suspected that your rotation of Escobar, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Dontrelle Willis, Chris Carpenter, and Mark Prior would be risky at best. Time to hit the waiver wire.

*Update* LA Times reports that Escobar has shoulder tear, "an injury that could require season-ending surgery and, possibly, end his career."

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Flapjacks Fantasy Transactions

For the other participants in my "Flapjacks" Yahoo keeper league, let's take a look at some of the recent waiver wire transactions over the weekend and see if we can assess their impact.


1. Adrian's Revenge (that's me) trades Xavier Nady to Dissect Yourself (Micah) for Austin Kearns.

This was a straight up value swap in that each team gave up an outfielder from their bench for another player that they valued more. Micah gets some more pop for his team, since Nady should hit 20-25 HR, though I think Micah's hoping for a breakout year of around 30 HR. Micah does have a need for more power as he only has a few solid HR sources (Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Matt Holliday); most of his squad is filled up with with guys who hit for average (James Loney, Kelly Johnson, Daric Barton) and speedsters (Juan Pierre, Corey Patterson). Nady will hit for power, but he's never had 500 at bats in a season and there are quite a few options in the Pittsburgh outfield. I wanted to get a player with a bit more upside and job security, which is why I targeted Austin Kearns.

Austin Kearns has the talent to hit 25 or more HR in a season, but like Nady, he'd never played a full season until last year. Kearns power was trending upward a couple of years ago in Cincinnatti; he hit 18 HR in 387 at bats in 2005 and 16 HR in 325 at bats in 2006 before being traded midway through the season to Washington. Since coming to Washington, he's hit 24 HR in 799 at bats, his power being severely stunted by his home park. Last year he hit .228 with a .695 OPS at home, while on the road he hit .301 with .832 OPS. Washington moves into a more offensive-friendly park this year, and my hope is that Austin Kearns will have a season more along the lines of his 2007 road stats, maybe .280/25/90. It's not much of a gamble on my part as neither Kearns nor Nady would have started the season anywhere but on my bench. Kearns will be blocked by Carlos Lee, Chris B. Young, Hunter Pence, Josh Willingham, Raul Ibanez, and Rick Ankiel, but Kearns could break into that group with a good first month or two, especially if there's an injury. At the very least I can spot start him right away against lefties.

I think this trade will work out well for both teams. Neither of us gave up someone we wanted and we both got someone we valued.

2. Val Kilmer's Asshole (Mark) drops Homer Bailey and picks up Mark Ellis.

Mark (whose team was previously known as the Kiwis) had dropped Freddy Sanchez last week for Doug Davis, and needed to fill his empty MI spot. Ellis is a solid yet underappreciated MI who should provide some pop. He's one of the better hitters on the Oakland team, so he should have some good RBI opportunities. Mark could have gone with someone like Jason Bartlett for more speed, but his team is pretty balanced, and I think Ellis is a good choice.

I like Homer Bailey a lot, and he may still have a good year in 2008, but he's just one of a couple pitchers fighting for the fifth spot in the Reds rotation. Mark already had seven starting pitchers before dropping Bailey, so it makes sense to lose a pitcher, but I think I would have dropped Davis and kept Bailey. Davis has been declining as a pitcher the last couple of years, and I don't think he'll turn it around soon. Better to keep Bailey and hope he gets called up to the rotation in a month.

I think Mark did a good job to fill a hole on his team, but I think he needs to replace Doug Davis in his rotation.

3. Naterade (Nate) drops Franklin Morales and adds Wily Mo Pena and Travis Buck.

Nate dropped a talented rookie - which is surprising because most of his roster is made up of talented rookies - who has struggled this spring and is not assured of a roster spot.  Franklin Morales has one more spring training start to try and impress the Rockies, but it looks like he needs more time in AAA.  Nate has a decent pitching staff, though both Francisco Liriano and John Smoltz are recovering/hurting from injury, so Morales won't be much of a loss.  

Nate picks up Wily Mo Pena to stash on his DL and Oakland outfielder Travis Buck, who plays tomorrow in the first game of the season.  I have a feeling Nate grabbed Buck to take advantage of the two games that Oakland plays this week.  Nate can get a headstart on his opponent by gaining some early stats.  I'm willing to bet that Buck will be back on the waiver wire this weekend, which is where he should stay as he the only value he has is a starting job.

Pena will start the season on the DL with a torn oblique and should be back in May.  He has lots of power - he hit 26 HR in 336 at bats playing for Cincinatti in 2004 - and is just entering his prime, but he has problems hitting righties, batting .203 in 177 at bats last year.  The talented but troubled Elijah Dukes will man left field while Pena is out, and Pena may have to split time if Dukes produces in the first month.  No harm in keeping Pena in your DL spot as a speculation pickup.

4. Dissect Yourself (Micah) picks up Tony Pena.

Micah had a roster spot open and picked up Arizona reliever Tony Pena.  This is a good pickup for a few reasons.  Our league has a 9-start limit per week, so relievers gain a greater value because the innnings they do not count against the start limit.  Pena should be the first in line for saves if Brandon Lyon is unable to hold the closer position.  Pena has decent DOM ratios, but he needs to improve his command just a little.  He'll have solid value, especially if he can take over as closer.

5.  Adrian's Revenge drops Jason Giambi and picks up Pat Neshek and Kurt Suzuki.

With Brad Lidge going on the DL to start the season, I had a roster spot open.  I wanted a relief pitcher so I could take advantage of their ability to rack up innings without counting against our start limit, and Pat Neshek was one of the best available.  Neshek had a DOM rate of 9.47 and a Command rate of 2.74 last year.  He made 74 appearances in 2007 and tired as the year went on, but he's pitched well this spring with no walks in eight innings.  He again be a dominant reliever to start the season.

I picked up Suzuki for the same reason that Nate picked up Travis Buck, because Suzuki plays for one of only two teams that have games this week.  I'm hoping Suzuki might give me a couple RBI this week before the rest of the league takes the field.  I dropped Giambi because he was the most expendable player on my roster.  He is one to watch though, for those speculating on power.

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Monday Fantasy Baseball Thoughts

As we wait for the 2008 MLB season to begin on the other side of the globe, here are some random thoughts for Monday.


- In my 12-team H2H keeper league, I ended up drafting Rick Ankiel in the 18th round. I needed some power and I was willing to sacrifice average to get it, so I was looking for guys who could conceivably hit 25 or more home runs. I ultimately chose Ankiel over Josh Fields, and after hearing the news that, barring a trade, Fields will most likely start the season in the minors after failing to unseat Joe Crede at third base, I'm happy with the choice I made.

Now ultimately I believe that Fields will have a better career than Ankiel, and Fields shouldn't be in the minors for too long, but I'm glad that I went with the player who had greater job security and little competition at his position. In keeper leagues, a younger player with upside is almost always a more attractive option than a proven veteran who's reached his ceiling, but sometimes you have to go with the guy with the longer track record.

Granted, Ankiel's track record is actually smaller than Fields, but Fields has to contend with a crowded outfield and an incumbent third baseman who hit 30 HR in 2006. Ankiel just has to hold off the not-so-threatening combination of Ryan Ludwick and Brian Barton.

I'm willing to gamble that a full season of Ankiel will give me better value than a partial season of Fields. Sometimes is hard not to get caught up in the hype of a touted prospect, especially in a keeper league, but if you want to contend this year, go with the guy that is assured of a full-time job.

Here are some players that were taken in the middle rounds of our league's draft but either have already been sent down to the minors or a rumored to be sent down:

Colby Rasmus (The Balls dropped him for Dave Roberts)

Jay Bruce

Joey Votto (hasn't been sent down, but hasn't beaten Scott Hatteberg for the starting job

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (thinks he'll be sent down)

Evan Longoria (most likely will be sent down to start the season)

These rookies all have value in keeper leagues, but the chances that they'll be a top 100 player either this year or next is small. There just aren't that many Ryan Braun's in the world. I'll go with guy who actually has a job.

- Kerry Wood was named the Cubs' closer today. This is good news for me as I drafted Wood in hopes that this would happen. Carlos Marmol is still the better pitcher, and he definitely has value due to his strikeout ability and his good command. Now all I need is for Wood to stay healthy and keep the job for the whole year. If he can stay healthy and pitch consistently on back to back outings, 30 saves should be within reach.

In that same article, it was noted that Felix Pie has won the starting centerfielder's job and will bat 8th. It'll be interesting to see what he can do with consistent playing time, something that he was not given last year. Pie could easily steal 25 bases in a full season if he can adapt to major league pitching. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick talks about what Pie has to work on to succeed.

- If you're looking for a deep sleeper with power, you should keep an eye on Florida's Jorge Cantu. Cantu appears to have won the Marlins' third baseman job with a .457 average in 46 spring training at bats. He's been driving the ball well as nearly 40% of his hits have gone for extra bases. Cantu hit 28 HR in Tampa Bay in 2005, and 20 HR aren't out of the question if he can get 550 at bats. What is in question is his ability to hit lefties; he's hit .243 against them in 341 AB's over the last three years. Cantu won't replace Miguel Cabrera for the Marlins, but a better third base option has not presented itself for them, so monitor how Cantu starts the season if you need a few home runs from a corner infield position.

- Injury News

Brewer's lefthander Chris Capuano is likely out for the year. Capuano will probably undergo a second Tommy John surgery as opposed to rehab. Capuano has no value this year, and little for the next, which is a shame because Capuano was a good pitcher in 2005 and 2006 who kept the ball down. He had trouble last year and was moved to the bullpen, but I had hoped he might rebound this year and fly under everyone's radar. Oh well.

Scott Rolen broke his right middle finger during a fielding drill on Sunday. We'll have a time table on how long he'll be out once he sees a specialist on Monday, but GM J.P. Ricciardi says "the early prognosis is it isn't going to be six weeks". Chris Neault at The Disabled List Informer has his own prognosis.

Curtis Granderson also had his finger broken this weekend when he was hit by a fastball on Saturday. Granderson will go on the 15-day disabled list, and he expects to be ready in another three weeks. This doesn't sound too serious, and he shouldn't have much trouble getting back into form once he's healthy.

John Smoltz will likely start the season on the DL with a sore shoulder. This sounds like a precautionary move, and hopefully won't be something that bothers him throughout the year.

Brad Lidge has been placed on the 15-day DL, retroactive to March 21st, according to the Delaware Online. It looks like he'll miss the first 5 games of the season. I have Lidge on my team as part of a shaky closer trio with Matt Capps and Kerry Wood, so I'm praying this isn't a recurring theme for the year.

- Trade Talks

According to the Denver Post, the Rockies are trying to trade Marcus Giles to the Dodgers. Jayson Nix appears to have the second baseman's job sealed up, and Giles will not accept a minor league assignment, so it looks like a trade will be the only way to make him happy. As a Dodger fan, I'd rather see Tony Abreu get playing time at second while Jeff Kent's hamstring heals, but Abreu might have to replace Nomar Garciaparra and Andy Laroche at third. I don't think Giles will have much value wherever he's traded, so let's move on.

The Nationals are trying to trade Felipe Lopez. Lopez was behind Ronnie Belliard and Christian Guzman on Washington's depth chart, limiting any fantasy value he might have had. If he lands in the right place, Lopez could be a cheap source of steals. He's stolen 68 bases over the last two seasons, and he could have 25 SB this year if he gets traded to a team that likes to run. Watch to see how this plays out.

- What Other Blogs Are Saying

Keith Law points out that Eric Gagne isn't trusting his changeup and he's relying too much on his fastball.

Eric Hz at Fake Teams has some notes on Sunday's spring training performances, including Chad Billingsley and B.J. Upton.

ESPN has posted their 2008 sleepers for both mixed and NL/AL only leagues. Lot of intriguing names on this list, and a lot of guys who've already been on people's radars all spring (I'm looking at you Jeremy Hermida). Happily for me, both Austin Kearns and Rick Ankiel are on the list, reaffirming my own good feelings about them.

All right, less than 24 hours until the season starts. I can't wait.

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My Keepers

For those who are interested, here is my 2007 team’s roster from my Yahoo league, with the seven players I will be keeping for 2008. I didn’t post a full analysis earlier because I wasn’t yet certain who I would keep, and because I didn’t want the other league owners to know my plans. Here’s my roster and keepers.

Adrian’s Revenge

The Hitters
Luis Castillo (NYM - 2B)
Josh Fields (CWS - 3B,OF)
Jeff Francoeur (Atl - OF)
Ryan Garko (Cle - 1B)
Jeremy Hermida (Fla - OF)
Mike Jacobs (Fla - 1B)
Casey Kotchman (LAA - 1B)
Carlos Lee (Hou - OF)
Brian McCann (Atl - C)
Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B,SS)
Hunter Pence (Hou - OF)
Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B)
Mark Teixeira (Atl - 1B)
Vernon Wells (Tor - OF)
Chris Young (Ari - OF)
Ryan Zimmerman (Was - 3B)

The Pitchers
Chad Billingsley (LAD - SP,RP)
Tom Glavine (Atl - SP)
Tom Gorzelanny (Pit - SP)
Jason Hammel (TB - SP,RP)
Luke Hochevar (KC - SP)
Chuck James (Atl - SP,RP)
Kyle Kendrick (Phi - SP)
Ian Snell (Pit - SP)
Adam Wainwright (StL - SP,RP)
Jake Westbrook (Cle - SP)

The Keepers

1. Mark Teixeira
2. Carlos Lee
3. Brian McCann
4. Brian Roberts
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Hunter Pence
7. Chris B. Young

I feel that I have a decent core to build around, though I know that I have a lot of work to do in the draft. I’ll let you know next week how it turns out.

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