So, just for kicks, I will be periodically ranking the teams in my league. I'm sure this holds no interest for anyone but the managers in my league, so feel free to move along to the next post.
3/31/08 Flapjacks Power Rankings
1. The Balls
This team's #1 ranking is dependent on how long Albert Pujols can stay in the lineup. The Balls have arguably the best pitching staff in our league, led by Erik Bedard and Jake Peavy. They need healthy seasons from both Hank Blalock and Milton Bradley, especially Pujols opts for surgery.
2. The Macafeys
They probably have the best offense in the league, led by David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, and B.J. Upton. They'll get even better if Alex Gordon can take the next step forward. Their pitching could use some help, but a healthy Rich Harden will go a long way to strengthening their staff.
3. The Dinos
Dinos have a strong offense, but they need both Lastings Milledge and Joey Votto to take the next step, a healthy J.D. Drew, and a bounce-back year from Richie Sexson. Injury questions on their pitching staff keeps them from ranking higher. John Smoltz starting on the DL hurt their ranking this week.
4. The Screaming Lemurs
The Lemurs have a very balanced offense, with quite a few guys who run and hit for power. If Billy Butler can continue his strong spring training start, the Lemurs could move up a spot. Their rotation is strong, but they appear to be punting saves, and their pitchers at the back of the rotation (Kevin Millwood, Wandy Rodriguez, Jake Westbrook) are not very good.
5. The Tossers
The Tossers have a strong offense with lots of power, led Alex Rodriguez, Travis Hafner, Nick Swisher, and Brad Hawpe. They do need another ace to help Chris Young anchor their pitching staff, as it's a steep drop from Young to the rest of their pitchers.
6. Val Kilmer's Asshole
They could have the best pitching staff if Scott Kazmir and B.J. Ryan can come back strong from injury and if A.J. Burnett can stay healthy. Until then, this roster is filled with injured players such as Scott Rolen, Jeremy Hermida, and Jerry Owens. They don't have enough healthy batters to fill all of their active roster spots.
7. Adrian's Revenge
My team has a good offense, but I probably have the worst pitching rotation. Hopefully Brad Lidge will stay healthy. I need Ian Snell, Rich Hill, and Matt Garza to take the next step forward to improve my staff. My offense could get a boost if Chris B. Young and Hunter Pence improve this year.
8. Self Indulgence
They will have a good offense, especially if Matt Kemp is as good as advertised. They need Jeff Kent and Ken Griffey Jr. to stay healthy, and they need to add depth to their pitching staff. They have Johan Santana, but not that much after him.
9. Summer Fox
Summer Fox could move up a couple of spot if he improves his roster, which has a few open spots due to players being sent down to the minors. Losing John Lackey hurts. He needs a bounce-back season from Jason Bay, and improvements from Stephen Drew and Yunel Escobar.
10. Butt Admirals
The Admirals could have a dominant pitching staff if Josh Beckett can stay healthy. The offense will struggle because he's depending on guys like Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Garko, Nate McClouth, and Kosuke Fukudome to make the leap to the next level.
11. Dissect Yourself
They have a good offense, but their pitching staff is hurting. They need Yovani Gallardo to be healthy, and they need another ace. Clay Buchholz could become that ace, but it might not happen this year.
12. Naterade
Naterade has the worst offense in the league, and they could have the worst pitching if Francisco Liriano doesn't come back in top form. His offense has the most upside of any team in the league, so he could move up the rankings fast if his team as a hot start.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Flapjacks Power Rankings
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Andre Ethier wins the Dodgers' starting LF job
This is good news, as Ethier is a much better all-around player than Pierre, both offensively and defensively. Pierre does provide speed on the base paths, but he is a liability in the field and he has no power. Hopefully the Dodgers trade him for a 3B, because Pierre doesn't offer much as a bench option and he's bound to complain about his new role.
Flapjacks Fantasy Transactions
Last week, two trades were made in my Yahoo H2H league. Let's take a look at them.
1. Dissect Yourself (Micah) trades Tom Gorzelanny and Joe Blanton to Val Kilmer's Asshole (Mark) for C.J. Wilson.
Micah gets C.J. Wilson, who saved 12 games in 2007 for the Rangers and has been named the team's closer to start the season. Wilson pitched well this spring, throwing three scoreless innings before giving up four runs in his last two appearances before the start of the regular season. Wilson did have to pitch with some tightness in his forearm, but it doesn't appear that it will affect him much this year. He did fairly well last year taking over as the team's closer in August, with seven saves and three ER in 12.1 innings that month. September was a little rougher as he went 4 for 5 in save opportunities and gave up seven ER in 8.1 innings. Wilson seems to have a lock on the role for now, but Texas does have a couple of other closer options in their bullpen. Wilson does have value for the team as a left-handed reliever, so if he can't close out games early on, they may be quick to restructure their bullpen and give someone else a shot.
Joe Blanton and Tom Gorzelanny both are solid 4th-pitchers on a fantasy squad. Blanton offers decent WHIP and ERA, though his 5.24 career K/9 is below average. He might struggle for wins with the rebuilding A's, but he plays in a pitcher-friendly park and he's durable, averaging 208 innings over the past three seasons. I believe that Blanton will improve on his 3.95 ERA from last year, and that he'll post an ERA closer to his 2005 mark of 3.53. Blanton's control has improved since his major league debut; his walks issued are trending downward and his K/BB is trending upward. He'll be a top-40 pitcher this year.
Gorzelanny hasn't spent as much time in the majors as Blanton, but his upside is greater and if he breaks out this year, he could be a top-30 pitcher. Gorzelanny had a 3.05 ERA in the first three months on 2007, before struggling to a 4.92 ERA in the second half. Gorzelanny was probably not prepared to pitch 200-plus innings, and he may be an injury risk due to being overworked. Like Blanton, Gorzelanny won't give you many wins or strikeouts, but his low WHIP and ERA could be a great benefit to any team if he can keep from being worn out or overworked.
I think Micah probably overpaid to get Wilson. Wilson should provide saves this year, but it's not likely that he'll be the Rangers' closer for the entire season. Micah probably should have tried to get more for Blanton and Gorzelanny, or he should have tried to keep from parting with both. Right now, his starting pitching staff consists of Jon Lester, C.C. Sabathia, Brad Penny, Clay Buchholz, and Yovani Gallardo. Micah did need to get saves, but I think giving up both those pitchers weakens his staff, at least until Gallardo is back.
Mark did well in getting a lot of value back for Wilson; getting both Blanton and Gorzelanny allows him to drop Doug Davis and it adds depth to a pitching staff that his some question marks due to injury risks. Adding these two gives Mark a total of eight starting pitchers, with Scott Kazmir on the DL. Both Kazmir and A.J. Burnett are likely to struggle with injury throughout the year, but with our weekly nine-start limit, I'm not certain that Mark will want that many starters on his roster. His pitching depth is a strength, but he also has very little offensive depth at the moment with only twelve healthy hitters for thirteen active roster spots. Mark might have been better served in getting a batter instead of two pitchers. I don't think that Gorzelanny will break out this year, but both he and Blanton should have decent seasons.
2. Dinos (Jonathan) trades Justin Morneau, Jonathan Broxton and Dontrelle Willis to Naterade (Nate) for Roy Oswalt, John Smoltz, Joey Votto, Jack Cust.
Our first blockbuster trade of the year. Dinos get two top-fifteen pitchers, a touted first-base prospect, and a guy with 35 HR power who should break the season strikeout record if he's given enough at bats. Oswalt has been one of the better pitchers of the decade, with a career 3.07 ERA and 112 wins in seven years. His strikeout numbers have dropped since he struck out 206 in 2004, and his K/9 rate last year was a career-low at 6.54. It's hard to say whether Oswalt will have post elite K-rates again, and his low strikeout totals are the only thing that can keep him from being a top-10 pitcher, but he should continue to have premium ERA and WHIP numbers.
Smoltz will start the season on the DL, but he should be back on April 6 to pitch against the Mets. I have may doubts about how easily he'll be able to ignore all the aches and pains throughout the season, but you can't ignore the stats he puts up when he's healthy. Smoltz had an incredible year for a 40-year old in 2007, with his best K/9 rate since 2004. Even if his skills do diminish because of age this year, he should still be in the top-20 among starting pitchers.
Joey Votto has shown his talent in the minors, with a career minor-league OPS of .861 in six seasons. He's shown both power and speed, with 44 HR and 40 SB in two seasons between AA and AAA. Votto has shown lots of patience at the plate, and it's not hard to see him one day hit .300/30/15. The only problem standing in his way this season is the Reds' incumbent first baseman, Scott Hatteberg. Votto didn't hit that well this spring, while Hatteberg did, and it looks Hatteberg will be the starter at 1B while Votto will pick up a few at bats each week. Votto could be great, but it might not be this year.
Jack Cust can hit for power, but by the look of his strikeout numbers from last year, it appears to be the only thing he tries to do. Cust should hit for power and, despite his propensity for striking out, he should get a full-season's worth of at bats on an Oakland squad devoid of much experience. Cust is useful if you have guys that can hit for high-average to offset his low BA.
Justin Morneau's numbers regressed last year after his MVP-season in 2006. Both his power numbers and his BA took a hit, mostly due to an awful finish in August and September in which he batted .221 with just three home runs. I think Morneau should hit 30 HR for the third year in a row, but I don't think he'll hit .300. Morneau sits just outside of the elite first basemen circle, but he's still young enough to make the leap to the next level.
Jonathan Broxton is young, K's over ten batters per nine innings, and lowered his walks last year from 2006 despite pitching more innings. Broxton could be a dominant closer once Takashi Saito can't play any more, but Broxton did not pitch that well last year in the few save situations that Saito was not available for. Broxton has a lot of value in our league because his innings will not count against our start limit, and he racks up the strikeouts. He should be one of the top middle relievers in the majors this year.
Dontrelle Willis had a bright career as a young starter, but his career dimmed a bit when he posted a 5.17 ERA in 2007. Willis will get a fresh start pitching in Detroit on a team that is sure to contend, so an improvement might be expected purely because of the change of scenery. Willis has not pitched that well this spring, and his control continues to be a problem. A better offense won't help him if he can't get through the tougher AL offenses without walking too many. Willis should bounce back this season, but he still won't be a top-50 pitcher.
I think the trade is fair for both sides, but I'm not certain that it helps Jonathan's team. He needed to improve his pitching because he already had Mark Prior, Chris Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar and Orlando Hernandez on the DL, and he needed some solid pitching depth in case Ben Sheets gets hurt and Oliver Perez reverts to his pre-2007 form. But I think he will miss Morneau's production, especially if Votto can't get more than 300 at bats this year. Jonathan's team is now lacking in batters who hit for a high average, and I think he could have gotten someone better in the trade than Cust, who Jonathan has said might not be on his team for that long.
Nate does well in getting the best player in the deal. With Morneau, he has a young power hitter who he can build around. Nate greatly strengthens his offense, which was filled with young players such as Delmon Young, Justin Upton, and Adam Jones. Nate had to subtract from his pitching staff, but he might be fine with the pitchers he has if Francisco Liriano can come back strong from his tune-up in the minors, and if Felix Hernandez can take the next step forward as an ace. It might be wise to wait a week or two and then try and offer Nate a starting pitcher, especially if Chad Billingsley struggles to start the year.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Flapjacks Fantasy Transactions
Here's another look at some of the recent transactions in my Yahoo keeper league.
1. Macafeys (Tim) drop Tim Wakefield and pick up Jason Varitek, then drops Varitek and picks up Asdrubal Cabrera.
I assume that this was done to take advantage of the two games that Boston plays this week, as Tim already has a decent, if raw option at catcher in Geovany Soto.
I don't know how much this will affect Wakefield's season, but Doug Mirabelli, Wakefield's personal catcher, was waived by the Red Sox. Boston's catchers had problems catching Wakefield's knuckle ball last year, enough so that Boston was forced to trade for Mirabelli back from the Padres. Wakefield has always managed to win games, but I think it's more likely that he continues to regress this year due to age.
Cabrera is a young second baseman with some upside upside. He hit .310 in AA last year with an .837 OPS, then hit .283 in the majors after being called up in August. He'll likely need another year or two before developing into a top ten 2B, but he does give Tim a decent option at MI in case Bobby Crosby is injured.
I like Volquez, but I'm not certain that Bru needed another pitcher, having already rostered six on his squad. Maybe he wasn't completely confident in the abilities of Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez to pitch a full season.
Quentin has talent and should get his share of at bats in the White Sox's outfield, but I don't think he's ready to be a solid contributor this year.
This is a good pickup for the fact that Volquez has upside and Quentin was expendable, but I think Bru needs to improve his offense, especially since Cameron Maybin was just sent down.
3. Tossers (Troost) picks up Jason Bartlett.
Since Kaz Matsui will miss the first couple weeks of the season with anal fissures, Troost needed to pickup a MI. Bartlett stole 23 bases last year with the Twins, and with his move to the Rays, a team with a more aggressive base path philosophy, Bartlett should better those numbers. The Rays will get twelve games against the Yankees and the Orioles in the first two weeks of the season, two teams with catchers that do not do a good job of limiting base stealers. Bartlett should have a few SB in during those series.
Fields has been demoted to the minors, but he'll be back up this year, and he could provide great value as a keeper. Fields has great power, but a poor batting average; if he can run like he did in AAA in 2006 when he stole 26 bases, he'll be a poor man's Ryan Braun.
Ethier has been one of the Dodgers' best players this spring, hitting .340 with 5 HR in 50 AB's. He could improve on his HR totals if he can beat out Juan Pierre for playing time in left field. Ethier could be a very good 5th outfielder, and he should provide Nate a decent option if Justin Upton or Adam Jones struggles to begin the year. I like Ethier and I think he'll improve on his numbers from the last two seasons.
The only problem is that Nate is now severely lacking in corner infielders, with only Kevin Youkilis guaranteed playing time. Time to hit the waiver wire, or trade one of your outfielders.
What People Are Saying
- Eric Hz at Fake Teams has six sleepers for deeper AL/NL only leagues.
Two interesting names on the list are RP Dennis Safarte and OF Fred Lewis who could end up having value in mixed leagues if they are given enough playing time.
Since I'm counting on Lidge to provide 30 saves this year, I'm hoping that his stay on the DL keeps him fresh and healthy and doesn't serve as a precursor for more stays to come.
I like Smoltz and had him last year, but I don't know how long he can continue to be a top ten or fifteen pitcher. There's no way that each injury doesn't continue to nag him throughout the year.
- Bob Taylor of Fantasy Hurler bemoans the Jarrod Saltalamacchia demotion, which results in him having to pick up "Gerald Fucking Laird".
I like Saltalamacchia and think he'll have a great career, but it doesn't seem that he's ready to be a major league catcher. It may be better to move him to first base to get his bat in the lineup, but he still struck out 75 times in just 308 at bats in his first season in the major leagues. He probably needs a bit more time in AAA, but I expect he'll be back up in Texas before the season is over.
As for Laird, I'm glad I don't have to rush to the waiver wire to pick him up, but it was only a year ago that Laird was the player being mentioned as a sleeper at catcher after hitting .296 with seven home runs in 243 at bats in 2006. Laird has some good pop, so he's not a bad choice, especially if you are in a league that requires two catchers.
I do agree that we overpaid for Juan Pierre, who might be overtaken by Andre Ethier as the starting leftfielder, and Jason Schmidt, but I have to disagree with his other opinions.
Colletti signed Rafael Furcal for three years/$39 million, which is a lot of money, but Furcal was one of the Dodgers best players in his first season with the team, hitting .300/15/63/37. It's likely that Furcal could have repeated those numbers in 2007, but a spring training collision with teammate Jason Repko left him with an ankle sprain that hindered him throughout the year. Now that he's healthy, Furcal should be one of the top ten shortstops in the league.
Nomar Garciaparra has little to no value now, but he was the Comeback Player of the Year in his first year with the Dodgers, hitting .303/20/93 in 2006. Garciaparra is just taking up space now that James Loney is ready to take over at first, but he was one of the team's better offensive players in 2006.
I liked that the Dodgers were able to get Luis Gonzalez for 2007; he was a decent insurance policy in case Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier faltered. Gonzalez's 15 HR were actually tied for third on the power deficient team. It was just a one-year deal, so Gonzalez allowed the Dodgers to bring their young outfielders along slowly without blocking them long term.
Derek Lowe has been the Dodger's most consistent starting pitcher over the last three years; he's pitched nearly 200 innings every year that he's been on the team, and he's averaged 13 wins with an ERA between 3.61 and 3.88. I don't see how you can go wrong with having a rotation stalwart like that on our team.
Edinson Volquez, acquired from the Rangers for Josh Hamilton, has beaten Bailey out for a rotation spot by striking out 26 batters in 20 innings this spring training with a 2.70 ERA. Volquez is starting to pique everyone's interest and he's definitely someone to stash away if you can.
Eugenio Velez: Cheap Source for Steals
For those speculating on steals, Giants utility player Eugenio Velez could be someone to watch.
Splitting time between Single-A, AA, and AAA, Velez stole 118 bases over the past two seasons. With 3b Kevin Frandsen likely out for the season, Velez should have a chance to find playing time all over the infield. Velez stole nine bases this spring, and could be a 30-SB sleeper if he can continue to get on base, giving him great value if he gains third base eligibility.
Only five or six third basemen are likely to come close to 20 steals, and Velez should get at least that if he can get a full season worth of at bats.
For those looking to replace injured speedsters such as Kaz Matsui or Jerry Owens, Velez might be worth taking a flier on.
Rich Harden looks strong in win.
Rich Harden pitched well in his first start of the season, receiving win in a 5-1 game over Boston.
Harden struck out nine and gave up three hits in six innings, the only run against him coming off a two-out home run by Manny Ramirez in the sixth inning.
The only problem Harden had was being inefficient with his pitches, only throwing 63% of his pitches for strikes. Harden walked three and needed 95 pitches to get through six innings.
This is good news for those taking a chance on Harden being able to stay healthy through the whole season. When healthy, Harden has the ability to be one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball. In 317.2 innings from 2004-2005, Harden had a 3.42 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 8.16 K/9 rate.
On another note, Oakland outfielder Emil Brown hit a home run in the same game against starter Jon Lester. Brown offers little value, but he might have some value against lefthanders for those in deeper leagues with daily transactions. Last year, Brown hit .317 against lefthanders. I almost picked up Brown for today's game because he was facing a lefty. I don't recommend picking him up unless you're desperate, but some value is there.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
