Keepers Part VIII

Continuing my analysis of each team’s keepers from my Yahoo league, we take a look at the Tossers, managed by my heterosexual life partner, Troost. The Tossers finished fourth in 2007, and they have a decent mix of speed and power to carry over to next year. Lots of veterans on this team, so they may want to use 2008 to get a little younger. Let’s look at the Tossers.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.


The Tossers

Hitters
Garret Anderson (LAA - OF)
Barry Bonds (SF - OF)
Mike Cameron (Mil - OF)
Travis Hafner (Cle - 1B)
Corey Hart (Mil - OF)
Torii Hunter (LAA - OF)
Conor Jackson (Ari - 1B)
Jeff Kent (LAD - 1B,2B)
Jeff Keppinger (Cin - 3B,SS)
Julio Lugo (Bos - 2B,3B,SS)
Nate McLouth (Pit - OF)
Jorge Posada (NYY - C)
Álex Rodríguez (NYY - 3B)
Scott Rolen (Tor - 3B)
Gary Sheffield (Det - 1B,OF)
Michael Young (Tex - SS)

Pitchers
Jason Bergmann (Was - SP,RP)
Joe Borowski (Cle - RP)
Ubaldo Jiménez (Col - SP)
Derek Lowe (LAD - SP)
Pedro Martínez (NYM - SP)
Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP)
Wandy Rodríguez (Hou - SP,RP)
Takashi Saito (LAD - RP)
Curt Schilling (Bos - SP)
Carlos Zambrano (ChC - SP)

The Keepers

1. Alex Rodriguez
There is no reason not to want Alex Rodriguez on your fantasy team in 2008, and it’s hard to argue that he shouldn’t be taken number one. He’s a slugger in his prime on one of the best teams in baseball. Since joining the Yankees, he’s averaged 43 HR, .303 BA, 128 RBI, and 22 stolen bases. You can almost guarantee 35 HR, .300 BA, 120 RBI, and 20 SB, and there’s a great chance that his numbers will be better than that. There’re no obvious signs that his skills are declining, so we should expect another MVP-caliber season from A-rod. He’s a reliable superstar, and that’s exactly what you want in a first-round pick.

2. Travis Hafner
Travis Hafner had a down year in 2007 compared to huge numbers he put up in 129 games in 2006. He started out strong hitting .338/.471/.550 in May, but then his numbers went into a nose dive before he finished strong by hitting .316/.414/.551 in September. In the four months in between, he never hit better than .253, never had an OBP over .400, and never slugged better than .455. It would be nice to assume that he was suffering from some kind of lingering injury, but Hafner never complained of one and he appeared in a career-high 152 games. It’s possible that we can attribute his offensive struggles to bad luck; he had a contact rate of 79%, his best since coming to the majors, but his hit rate was 30%, 4% less than his three-year average previous to 2007. Hafner should rebound, especially if he can cut down on his GB/FB ratio, but a return to his 2006 numbers is no sure thing. Expect numbers closer to his 2005 season.

3. Michael Young
Michael Young is one of the more dependable hitters at the shortstop position. He’ll hit over .300 and chip in double-digit home runs and stolen bases. His greatest value is his ability to hit for contact, which is helped by his strong line-drive rate, but don’t discount the steals and home runs that he chips in. His power is declining, but his speed is still there, so a repeat of his 2007 numbers is within reach. Young might have trouble scoring runs in the Rangers offense without Mark Teixeira around to knock him in, but he could come close to 100 RBI if the team bats him in the 3rd spot the majority of the time, as they did in 2007. Young’s numbers have historically been better hitting 2nd rather than 3rd, so pay attention to where he spends his time in the lineup during spring training.

4. Takashi Saito
Takashi Saito was one of the best closers in baseball last year, and while his numbers will most likely regress from last year, he should be a very good closer option in 2008. He improved his K/BB and BB/9 ratios, and his ground ball rate jumped by 10%. There are some warning signs as his HR/FB rate rose, and his strand rate was a very high 88%. History says that pitchers with high strand rates usually regress to normal levels the next year, which leads to a rise in ERA. Barring injury or an impatience on the part of Dodgers’ management to see Jonathan Broxton take over the role. Saito will have a good chance to save 30+ games in 2008.

5. Torii Hunter
Torii Hunter is a dependable outfield option; he’ll provide a mix of power and speed with a decent BA. He’ll benefit from playing with the Angels, a team that scored more runs and attempted more stolen bases in 2007 than Hunter’s old team, the Twins. Hunter is getting older, but there’s no evidence that he can’t come close to his 2007 stats this year; though his batting average will most likely a few points, he should steal around 20 bases in 2008. Click here to read my thoughts from November when Hunter’s new deal was announced.

6. Corey Hart
The Brewers gave Corey Hart a chance to earn a spot in the outfield in 2007, and he rewarded the team and fantasy owners alike with what could be the first of many 20/20 seasons. Hart has a favorable GB/FB ratio, which could lead to an increased home run output as he reaches his prime (he’ll be 26 when the season begins). One area he’ll have to work on is walking more and striking out less, which could be helped as he gets more at bats against major league pitching. Watch where he bats in the Brewer’s lineup; he split time with Rickie Weeks in the lead off spot, but he also had 119 at the 5th spot. Where he hits might play a part into how much he runs or how many RBI chances he gets. Either way, he’ll be a good source of both power and speed.

7. Gary Sheffield
Gary Sheffield is getting older, and his body isn’t holding up as well as it used to, but when healthy, Sheffield still has the skills of a very dangerous hitter. Sheffield started slow last season with a poor April, but from May-July he hit .320 with 21 home runs. He missed 23 games between August and September due to a collision with Placido Polanco that resulted in a sore shoulder. Sheffield had surgery in October that uncovered a torn labrum. As of last week, Sheffield has been swinging a bat without any pain, and he expects to be ready by Opening Day. The Tigers plan to use Sheffield mainly as a DH, which should keep him from risking further injury in the field. If Sheffield is healthy for a full season, 30 home runs is not out of reach. Sheffield still has good plate discipline, so his batting average should rebound from last year. I’m not certain if he’ll steal 22 bases again, which were his most since 1990, but double-digit steals should be attainable.

The Also-Rans
Troost could easily keep Mariano Rivera over Saito, as his 9.34 K/9 last year was his highest since 1996, and his 6.17 K/BB was his best since 2003. But his .248 BAA was his highest since his first year in the league. Rivera is still a good closer, but I like Saito just a little bit more for next year. Carlos Zambrano was a top-ten pitcher in 2006, but he was barely worthy of the top-30 last year. Both his K/9 and K/BB rates decreased and it’s possible that the 215 innings he’s averaged over the past five seasons have sapped his effectiveness. He won’t be a top-ten pitcher if he can’t limit his walks. Jorge Posada could be a good keeper option at catcher if because of the scarcity of the position, but Troost could probably draft him again in the middle rounds if he wanted. Jeff Kent is another reliable, aging player who Troost could pick up later in the draft. Conor Jackson hasn’t shown that he’s ready to hit 25+ home runs, so he should be relegated to the end of the draft with the other good contact, mediocre slugging first basemen. Mike Cameron could provide an undervalued 20/20 season, even though he’s suspended for the first 25 games. His suspension should make it easy to grab him late, which I suggest you do. He’ll hurt your average, but there aren’t too many power/speed options that late in the draft. Nate McLouth is another guy I’ll be watching in spring training, because I think he’s capable of going 20/20 as well if he wins the center field job over Nyjer Morgan. Definitely worth a late round gamble.

Troost, you don't have the strongest group of keepers, but they should be solid this year. You'll need to target some stars entering their primes if you want to contend next year and the year after that.

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It's all in the wrist.

Over at The Disabled List, there's an in-depth analysis of Ryan Zimmerman's wrist surgery and how it might affect him during the upcoming season. The creator of The Disabled List offers to provide credible expertise and insight from a fantasy standpoint into the aches and pains that trouble major league players. Check his blog out and send him a question.

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AL Central vs. NL East: How will the move to a new division affect Johan Santana

Mike Bock of the blog Fantasy Hurler had a post on Wednesday analyzing how the move to the NL should affect Johan Santana's production in 2008. You can read that post here.

I agree with him on a few points (there is more offense to be found in the AL than in the NL, the move solidifies Santana's spot in the first round), but I felt that we shouldn't overrate the impact pitching in the NL East as opposed to the AL Central will have on his season. I looked at the two divisions and found them to be fairly comparable in offensive production in 2007. Here is the response to Mike's column that I posted in the comments thread.


"I agree that the offenses in the NL are inferior to the AL, but I don't think we should overestimate is move to the NL East.

Anyways, if you compare the offenses in the NL East and the AL Central from 2007, excluding the Mets and the Twins, to two divisions are actually pretty comparable. Below are each team's runs and OPS totals from 2007, with their league rankings in parentheses.

Runs
NL East
PHI - 892 (2)
ATL - 810 (9)
FLA - 790 (13)
WAS - 673 (30)

AL Central
DET - 887 (3)
CLE - 811 (8)
KC - 706 (27)
CWS - 693 (28)

OPS
NL East
PHI - .812 (2)
FLA - .784 (7)
ATL - .774 (9)
WAS - .715 (28)

AL Central
DET - .802 (4)
CLE - .771 (11)
CWS - .722 (26)
KC - .710 (29)

Now obviously FLA won't have such good offensive totals in 2008 due to the loss of Miguel Cabrera, so we could drop them down to a little below average, and we can raise Detroit a little higher due to adding Cabrera. PHI should be an elite offense again in 2008. ATL has lost Andruw Jones, who had a poor year anyways, but they will now have a full season of Mark Teixeira, so mark a little bit of a gain for ATL. CLE will have better numbers if Hafner has a normal year. The White Sox added Nick Swisher, but that won't make them more than an average offense at best. WAS moves to a more hitter friendly home park in 2008, so that should help a little bit. KC should still be awful in 2008.

As far as park factor goes, MIN was actually a better pitchers' park in 2007 than NY, according to the run-scoring park factors on ESPN. MIN actually hasn't had hitter friendly park factor numbers since 2005.In all, I agree there are some great offenses in the AL Central, but top to bottom, they are only a little better than the ones in the NL East. Santana should be the best pitcher in 2008 and he'll love getting to face the pitcher, but we shouldn't overrate the affect moving to his new division will have if we are comparing offenses."

Mike responded to my comments in a new post yesterday. I've pasted the section of his post that directly dealt with my comments.

"AL Superiority a Mirage?

I love hearing from readers! Ben Westrup, of the awesomely titled I Hate Matt Berry blog, has offered a lengthy explanation as to why I've overrated Johan's move from the AL Central to the NL East. To wit, comparative run production and OPS numbers are either insignificantly different, or slightly in the NL East's favor.

Anecdotally, it seems that many pitchers get hammered moving from the NL to the AL (Schilling, Johnson, etc.). Could that be a mirage?

Let's look at the likely 3-4-5 hitters of the respective teams:

Detroit: M. Cabrera, Sheffield, M. Ordonez
Minnesota: Mauer, Morneau, Delmon Young
Cleveland: Sizemore (he should be), Hafner, V. Martinez,
White Sox: Thome, Konerko, Swisher
Kansas City: Teahen, Sweeney, Gordon? (you've got me here)

Washington: Zimmerman, Dmitri Young, Austin Kearns? (*vomit*)
Florida: Willingham, Hermida?, Jacobs?
Mets: Wright, Delgado, Beltran (Johan won't face this bunch!)
Braves: C. Jones, M. Teixeira, McCann
Phillies: Howard, Utley, Burrell

Notice a pattern?

Two of the four teams that Johan will be frequently taking the mound against next year have hitters in the heart of their order who might not crack Detroit's starting lineup. Instead of Cleveland and Detroit, he gets Florida and Washington. Additionally, the best of Johan's adversaries in the NL East (Howard, Teixeira, Jones) are either lefties or switch hitters; he'll be facing their off-hands.

I ran the league ERA and WHIPs. They were surprisingly close, about a tenth of a run apart in ERA, and only one hundredth of a percentage apart in WHIP. Looking at these lineups, what appears to be happening is that the NL East pitchers are doing more with less talent, probably because they aren't facing hitters nearly as good as those in the AL Central. I'd say that the DH/pitcher affect is being somewhat obscured by the fact that AL Central pitchers are simply better, across the board. Which is probably reflected in the fact that six or seven AL Central SPs (if we include Santana) will be going in the first eight or nine rounds next year, and about two NL East'ers will be.

It's also worth noting that the move to the NL means that vicious AL East (4126 runs scored) has been swapped out for the paltry NL West (3731 runs scored). That's a big differential! Dividing the run differential amongst the various franchises, the AL East teams scored approximately half a run more per game than their NL West counterparts.

I hate looking at wins as a measuring stick for pitchers, but finally, consider this: New York players crossed homeplate 86 more times than Minnesotans last year. With a bit more run support, I doubt we'll see Santana with only 15 wins again this year."

Ultimately we agree that Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, who should be a first round draft pick, and whose new league can only help his stats. But when I look at the AL Central, I just don't see it as being that much better than the NL East. I do think it is better, but I don't think the gap is as big as Mike does. If we discount the team that Santana is leaving and the team he is moving to, we have two poor offenses (K.C. and WAS), two elite offenses (DET and PHI), two above average offenses (CLE and ATL), one average offense (CWS) and one average-below average offense (FLA). I think, based on their production from last year and the players gained and lost, that the AL Central is only a little better than the NL East in terms of offense.

I'd love to hear if you think I'm wrong, right, or whatever.

Either way, check out the good stuff the guys at Fantasy Hurler are posting.

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Consistency: The Hallmark of a Head to Head MVP

I've primarily played in Head to Head leagues over the past seven years, and one thing I feel that is lacking in the majority of fantasy analysis is strategy for that format. H2H is a very different beast from the Roto format. Because of the weekly matchups in H2H, it doesn't matter what your players did last week, it only matters what they will do this week. Having players that are consistent and not streaky will help to alleviate any headaches you might have from week to week. Weekly consistency in a player's production is not something I've ever taken into consideration on draft day, but I think it's something we should all be aware of when participating in a H2H league.

I decided to take a look at the top 40 homerun hitters in 2007 to see which ones were either feast or famine from month to month and which ones were steady throughout. I wanted to see how many of these hitters had months of 4 or more homeruns, 5 or more homeruns, and 6 or more homeruns. I chose to look at homeruns because it is one of the few outcomes in which the responsibility solely rests with the hitter. RBI and run totals are too dependent on the rest of the team, and to look at those numbers from month to month wouldn't tell us anything about trends. The same goes for batting average, as opposing defense plays into that as well.

This is more of an informative exercise rather than a predictive one. Players still can contribute in other categories when they're not hitting homeruns and, for the most part, their value should not be predicated on that one category. I'm not suggesting that we reassign value to these hitters based solely on how many homeruns they hit from month to month, but I do think it is good for H2H players to look back at last season to remember how a player ended up with the season totals that he did. I don't have the time or information to do the research it would take to establish the presence, or lack there of, of any trends, so this is purely for informative purposes only.

Here are some players that stood out when I looked at their homerun totals for each month.

- Aramis Ramirez finished with 26 homeruns but he hit more than 5 homeruns in a month only three times. From June-August, Ramirez hit a combined total of 5 homeruns. Ramirez struggled with wrist and knee injuries, which contributed to missed time doing those months, but I'm sure it wasn't fun for H2H owners who basically had no power production from their third baseman for half the season.

- Khalil Greene was a fine source for middle infield power, hitting 27 homeruns last year, 3rd most among all shortstops, but he hit more than 4 homeruns in a month only three times. Greene hit half his homeruns in June and September, but hit only nine homeruns combined in May, July and August. Greene hit a lot of doubles during those months, so his power wasn't gone, but he had homerless streaks of 16, 17, and 23 games, providing zero homerun value in weekly matchups during those time periods.

- Magglio Ordonez had an MVP-caliber season last year, but he had three months where he hit less than four homeruns. More than half his homeruns were hit in May and August; he hit 10 homeruns the rest of the year. May and August were the only months that he hit more than five homeruns in. He carried fantasy teams with his homerun totals in those two months, but he was nearly a non-entity for homers the rest of the time.

- Mark Teixeira has lots of power potential, but he's been streaky the past couple of years. 2007 was no exception; in May, August, and September he combined for 24 homeruns, and he averaged 2 homeruns a month the rest of the year. For H2H owners who drafted him to win homerun matchups, those three months must have been very disappointing.

- Alfonso Soriano was one of the streakiest homerun hitters in the league. He hit 25 of his 33 homeruns in June and September. Soriano would have had more homeruns, but he missed most of August with a torn quad. Discounting August, he still only hit 7 homeruns in April, May and July, likely costing his H2H fantasy owners dearly in that category.

- Matt Holliday also had an MVP-caliber season, hitting 36 homeruns, including 12 in September. But he also had three months where he hit averaged a little more than 3 homeruns a month; not very MVP-like in H2H baseball.

- Jimmy Rollins won the NL MVP, hitting 30 homeruns, and he must have made things easier on H2H owners by hitting 4 or more homeruns in a month five times, and 6 or more homeruns in a month three times. Except for a homerless May, Rollins was exactly the kind of homerun hitter H2H want.

- Chris Young had a similar season to Rollins, hitting 5 or more homeruns in a month three times, and 4 or more homeruns in a month five times.

- Carlos Beltran hit six or more homeruns in a month five times last year, on his way to 33 homeruns for the season.

- Alex Rodriguez, our 2007 homerun champion, was the epitome of consistency. He averaged 9 homeruns a month, and hit less than 7 in a month only once.

As a participant in a H2H league, you would hope that your sluggers projected to hit 25 or more homeruns would give you one homerun a week, otherwise it's that much harder to beat your opponent in that category. Consistency helps a lot, but that's not going to make me shy away from guys like Magglio Ordonez or Mark Teixeira on draft day. Anyone can have a good or bad month; it's important to make the most out of your players' matchups every day in order to maximize your chances of beating your opponent each week.

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Johan Santana Moves to New York

A deal was reached Tuesday to send Johan Santana to the NY Mets, pending a physical and an extension agreement.

A move to the NL and Shea Stadium should only help Santana's value in 2008. The Mets scored the 10th most runs in 2008 with 804, 86 more than Minnesota did, an average of half a run per game. With greater run support, Santana should see more opportunities for wins, though there isn't any obvious bullpen upgrade with his new team. The lack of a DH in his new league could mean a few more strikeouts for Santana in 2008, so numbers comparable to his 2006 season shouldn't be out of reach.
Minnesota received four prospects in return for the best pitcher in baseball, none of whom were New York's best major league-ready pitching or hitting prospects. The only names you should know for 2008 are outfielder Carlos Gomez and righthander Philip Humber, both of whom could start the season in the big leagues. Gomez has speed, with 12 stolen bases in 58 games in the big leagues last year, and 17 stolen bases in AAA as a 21 year-old, also in 2007, so keep an eye on him as a source for SBs if he wins a starting job. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, has a shot to make the rotation in spring training, but he's a longshot as he's only pitched 6 innings above Double A. The fourth player in the deal is righthander Deolis Guerra, ranked by Baseball America as Mets 2nd best prospect. He's 18 with no experience above Single A, so it will be a few years before he's ready to make the team. It doesn't look like Minnesota got the best package they could have for two-time Cy Young winner, though time will tell.
All in all, it looks like Santana is still a first-rounder and should be the first pitcher taken in any draft. Congratulations to the Mets for getting an ace, which strengthens their rotation from top to bottom as a result.

- Keith Law with ESPN analyzes the deal and finds that the Twins gave up a premium player for less than a premium price.

- Tristan Cockroft takes a look at the fantasy ramifications and points out Santana's stellar interleague numbers.

- Rob Neyer says that "Santana will dominate the National League like Greg Maddux did in the mid-1990s and Randy Johnson did five years later."

- Eric Hz of Fake Teams believes that with a full season worth of ABs, Chris Gomez will steal 40+ bases.

- Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus projects Santana's numbers in 2008 with the Mets.

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Keepers Part VII

The next stop in my journey to analyze each team’s keepers in my fantasy baseball league is Jonathan’s Dinos. Jonathan finished 5th last year, and a brief glance at his roster shows that he has a very strong base on which to contend in 2008. Jonathan gained most of his star players through trades, and in the interest of full disclosure, he gained Chase Utley from me in a trade also involving Roy Oswalt and Brian Roberts, a deal I wish I could do over. Anyways, let’s get on with the keepers.

As always:
Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

Dinos

The Hitters
Carlos Beltrán (NYM - OF)
Eric Byrnes (Ari - OF)
Miguel Cabrera (Det - 3B)
J.D. Drew (Bos - OF)
Chone Figgins (LAA - 2B,3B,OF)
Carlos Guillén (Det - 1B,SS)
Ryan Howard (Phi - 1B)
Kenny Lofton (Cle - OF)
Yadier Molina (StL - C)
Justin Morneau (Min - 1B)
Jhonny Peralta (Cle - SS)
Frank Thomas (Tor - Util)
Chase Utley (Phi - 2B)

The Pitchers
Jeremy Accardo (Tor - RP)
Danys Báez (Bal - RP)
Francisco Cordero (Cin - RP)
Ryan Dempster (ChC - RP)
Rich Hill (ChC - SP)
Tim Hudson (Atl - SP)
John Lackey (LAA - SP)
Roy Oswalt (Hou - SP)
Nate Robertson (Det - SP)
Ervin Santana (LAA - SP)
John Smoltz (Atl - SP)
Rick VandenHurk (Fla - SP)


1. Miguel Cabrera
Miguel Cabrera has been one of the most consistent young power hitters over the past four years, so it’s sickening to think that he’ll be only 25 next April. Cabrera has a .313 career batting average, and he’s averaged 31 homeruns a season over the past 4 years. He’s young, he’s consistent, and he’s durable, exactly the type of player you want to build around. And with his new home in Detroit, it’s possible that he might put up some of the best numbers of his career in 2008. Cabrera moves from the NL to the AL, against whose pitchers he’s hit .310 in 268 interleague at bats. It’s a small sample size and probably more indicative of AL pitchers not having an in-depth scouting book compiled on him yet, but it shows that he shouldn’t struggle early on. Cabrera will probably see a few more homeruns hit this year as pitchers won’t be able to pitch around him very often due to the frighteningly potent offense surrounding him. The move to his new stadium should help Cabrera as well, as Detroit was ranked 9th in homerun park factor compared to Florida at 15th. A skilled hitter when he came up, Cabrera has improved against lefties over the past three years (.299 in 2005, .321 in 2006, and .364 in 2007); now he hits them better than he does righties. Cabrera drove the ball well in 2007, with a groundball-to-fly ball ratio of 1.08 compared to 1.19 in 2006. Cabrera should see more RBI opportunities in Detroit, depending on where they hit him, as the hitters in the 1 and 2 spots for Detroit had a better OBP (.362) than Florida’s (.350). Cabrera’s been diligent about being in better shape this year, losing a reported 20 pounds in the off season, so it’s not hard to see him hitting .330/35/120 in 2008.

2. Ryan Howard
Ryan Howard is a homerun beast, hitting 47 in 2007 a year after hitting 58. Howard probably would have had his second straight 50 homerun campaign last year if he hadn’t missed half of May due to injury, so look for him to again make a run at 50 homeruns in 2008. The only question is can he hit .300 again? Howard hit .268 in 2007 after hitting .313 the year before. Part of that large decrease can be attributed to his inability to hit lefties in 2007, only .225 against southpaws as opposed to .279 in 2006. Howard had problems hitting lefties when he first came up in 2005, so it’s possible that he may continue to have trouble against them throughout his career. He did hit .280 in the second half last year, but only because his hit rate increased by three percent, while his contact rate actually dropped. I don’t see Howard hitting .300 next year as long as his contact rate is so low, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit around .275, especially if he can make adjustments against lefties. Anyways, who cares if he only hits .260 if he continues to have one of the best power indexes in the league.

3. Chase Utley
Chase Utley is the top second baseman in the major leagues. He hits for power, average, and provides a nice amount of stolen bases. He plays in a hitter friendly stadium, surrounded by a solid lineup which provides lots of RBI and run scoring opportunities. Utley missed a month in 2007 due to a broken hand, affecting his homerun total. Assuming he’s back to full strength, it shouldn’t be unreasonable to expect 27-30 homeruns. His hit rate was a bit high compared to his historical levels, so a drop in batting average should be expected. Assuming he stays healthy, he should hit .300 with 12-15 stolen bases, and a third consecutive season of 100 runs and RBI. A definite keeper.

4. Carlos Beltran
Carlos Beltran provides a good mix of power and speed, though he has been inconsistent in his production over the past few years and his age means he can’t produce as a top-ten outfielder for much longer. One good piece of news is a report that Carlos Beltran had tissue removed from the patella tendon in both his knees in October. Beltran had been bothered by knee tendonitis in the second half, so hopefully having a healthy pair of legs will mean more stolen bases in 2008. Beltran had a big second half with 23 homeruns, but part of that was due to an increase in his HR/FB rate, up from 10% in the first half to 25% in the second. That HR/FB rate probably won’t hold up, so don’t expect him to improve on 2007’s homerun numbers. His contact rate has decreased over the past three years, so his batting average may start to decline next year. But he plays in a great offense, so run scoring and RBI opportunities should be plentiful. Beltran should produce around .275/30/110 with 20 stolen bases.

5. Justin Morneau
The 2006 AL MVP saw his batting average fall fifty points in 2007. Part of the reason was a reversion to his 2005 ways of not being able to hit lefties. Also part of the reason was a sudden 9% increase in groundballs hit at the expense of line drives. Morneau had a horrible August/September in which he hit .220 with 3 homeruns, after hitting .297 with 28 homeruns. It’s possible that there was an unreported injury that Morneau was playing through, so pay attention during spring training for any news. One sign for hope was an increased walk rate in 2007. Morneau’s expected-BA (xBA) in 2007 was .295, so look for his batting average to bounce back in 2008, but he won’t hit .321 again if he can’t make adjustments against lefties and if he doesn’t start to drive the ball a little better. Morneau is entering his prime years, so 35 homeruns is possible if everything comes together, but be prepared to expect 30 homeruns with a .280-.285 average.

6. Chone Figgins
Chone Figgins had a wonderful 2007 despite only appearing in 115 games due to broken fingers and recurring wrist problems. Figgins still managed to steal 41 bases, and with an improved walk rate and OBP, especially in the second half, he should steal 50-55 bases provided he plays a full season. Figgins had surgery in October to remove the hamate bone in his left wrist, with an expected recovery time of ten weeks, so will have to see how much that will affect him going into spring training. Figgins had an xBA of .283 in 2007 and a contact rate of 40%, well above his historical trend, so a decrease in BA should be expected. Depending on how his wrist holds up, Figgins should be expected to hit .290-.295, and with Torii Hunter providing a little more pop in the lineup, Figgins should see an increase in runs scored; possibly 100 runs in 2008. Great speed, good average, a wide range of position eligibility in 2008 means good keeper value.

7. Carlos Guillen
There were a couple players I thought about picking instead of Guillen, but the main reasons I like him in the last keeper spot are he plays for a team with lots of opportunities for scoring runs and RBI, and he’s moving to first base this season to save his legs but he’ll still have SS eligibility. With the acquisition of Edgar Renteria, Guillen can now play first base and hopefully stay healthy and fresh for the whole season. Guillen had problems throughout the year with sore legs and knees, so hopefully moving to a less strenuous position will me better production at the plate and on the base paths. Guillen still had a solid Speed Index of 112, so 15 stolen bases shouldn’t be out of the question. His hit rate was low in 2007 compared to his historical rates, so a slight batting average adjustment should be forthcoming. A healthy Guillen should be good for .300 average, 20-25 homeruns, and 100+ RBI.

The Also-Rans
It was really almost a tossup between Carlos Guillen and Eric Byrnes for the last spot. Byrnes’ stolen base potential makes him a very attractive pickup, but his career-high BA of .287 was supported by a very high hit rate. Lower batting average means lower OBP, and a lower OBP means less stolen base opportunities. Byrnes doesn’t get many RBI opportunities playing for a team with one of the worst offenses in 2007, and he showed less power last year than in 2006 when he hit 26 homeruns. Byrnes could be 25/25 next year, but he’s more risky than Guillen. Jonathan has a few pitchers that could be considered keepers, especially John Lackey who was the 6th best pitcher in 2007 according to ESPN. Lackey is in his prime, and he greatly improved his control and command, though his dominance has been trending closer to average over the past three years. I left Lackey off because I prefer whenever possible to load up on offense in the first seven innings. John Smoltz defies time year after year, but the older he gets, the harder it will be to recover from injury, and it will be harder mentally for him to play through any discomfort if Atlanta isn’t contending, which they probably won’t be in 2008. Roy Oswalt is Houston’s ace, but his dominance ratio has been slipping for the past four years and his command ratio in 2007 was the worst of his career. Johnny Peralta provides good pop for a middle infielder and an okay average, but that’s about it. Frank Thomas hit 26 homeruns last year, but I wouldn’t bet on him to do it again in 2008 if his slugging percentage and HR/FB rate keep trending downward.

Jonathan, you have a very solid group of keepers of which I’m envious. You have three guys who will all go in the first round next year, and four more who will go in the top-five rounds. You definitely have a nice head start on the rest of us in the league in terms of keeper talent.

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Friday Fantasy News

- Here's an unsettling bit of news courtesy of Eric Karabell at ESPN. Albert Pujols made some comments this week that might make me worried if I was a Pujols owner.

"Pujols said he decided against offseason surgery on his right elbow, a trouble spot for several years, because he would have had to miss a significant portion if not all the 2008 season. Pujols still is unable to straighten his arm, but team doctors concluded that because he plays first base, an operation can be postponed.
He said his elbow bothered him the second half of last season, and said if that happens again he wouldn't try to soldier through it.
'If the same problem is happening this year, I don't think I'm going to play the whole year the same way," Pujols said. "I sacrificed my body.'"

So Pujols can't straighten his arm completely, and if he feels like it's going to be a problem throughout the year, like it was last year, he'll have surgery that could keep him out for "a significant portion if not all the 2008 season." That's the kind of news that makes your sphincter tighten if you were counting on Pujols to carry your team.

Karabell goes on to make the point that we don't know anything until we here more or until we see Pujols miss time during spring training. We have to assume though that Pujols' numbers in 2008 will be closer to his totals in 2007 than in 2006.

So for Pujols owners in 2008 (that's you Brubaker), don't lose hope yet and give in to that below value deal that someone in your league is going to lowball you with. Wait until we hear something else, and then trade Pujols for something close to value if you can.

- On the brighter side, the Denver Post reports that Rockies manager Clint Hurdle wants to manufacture more runs by giving Troy Tulowitzki and Matt Holliday the green light more often. So for Tulowitzki and Holliday owners (like you Micah), you might expect a few more stolen base opportunities for those two this year.

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