Draft Analysis- Part Two

Time for the second installment in our three-part look at our recent fantasy baseball draft.  Please see the previous post for the first part.

Round Seven

1. Ian Stewart             Dissect Yourself

2. Mark Reynolds       Orc Mischief

3. Justin Verlander      Order of the Phoenix

4. Chris Carpenter       Butt Admirals

5. Willy Taveras          Summer Fox

6. Adam LaRoche       Tossers

7. Javier Vazquez        Screaming Lemurs

8. Matt Cain                The $5 Footlongs

9. Rickie Weeks          Naterade

10. Derek Lowe          The Balls

11. Scott Baker           Adrian's Revenge

12. Milton Bradley      Macafey

Comments: There’s a lot of picks to like here.  I’m glad I got Scott Baker; he’s one of the top pitchers I wanted to get in the middle rounds.  Derek Lowe and Matt Cain are good picks as well.  Mark Reynolds is a solid source of power as a corner infielder, though he will hurt your batting average.  Ian Stewart’s bat will play well due to his eligibility at second base.  I know Weeks has disappointed owners in the past, but he does provide you with double-digit HR and SB as a middle infielder.  He’s only 26, so a breakout year is still possible, but his poor batting average is a killer.  I’m not a Milton Bradley fan, as his production is tied to his health, and his health has never been good.  He can hit for average, but last year was the first time he ever hit more than 20 HR in a season.  At age 30, there’s not much upside here.  Justin Verlander is a good pick as I think he can be good again if he’s healthy.

Best Pick: Javier Vazquez

I think Vazquez is underrated.  He is a great source for strikeouts and he’s very durable.  He hasn’t ever had good ERA seasons, but I feel that the move to the NL can only help him.  I think he’s a great pick here.

Worst Pick: Chris Carpenter

Carpenter has made 4 starts in the last two seasons because of injury.  He has talent and could still be a great pitcher, but I don’t think you can roster the risk he represents when so many other consistent and talented pitchers are still on the board like Vazquez, Cain, Lowe and Baker.  This is a very risky pitcher being added to a staff already saddled with risk.

Round Eight

1. Jim Thome   Macafey

2. Mark DeRosa          Adrian's Revenge

3. Carlos Gomez         The Balls

4. Billy Butler             Naterade

5. Kerry Wood            The $5 Footlongs

6. Matt Garza              Screaming Lemurs

7. Ted Lilly                 Tossers

8. Ryan Dempster       Summer Fox

9. Huston Street          Butt Admirals

10. Kelly Johnson       Order of the Phoenix

11. Brad Ziegler          Orc Mischief

12. Chris Young          Dissect Yourself

Comments: I wish Weeks had made it to me, but he didn’t so I ended up taking DeRosa.  I was hoping that Kelly Johnson would stick around for my next pick, but Mark scooped him up.  Ted Lilly is another underrated pitcher who will give you good strikeouts and a decent ERA.  More closers are taken off the board, though it isn’t certain as of now if Ziegler will be closing over Joey Devine in Oakland.  Jim Thome was a good pick here because he can still provide power.  His stats last year were not far off from Dunn’s, though Thome is a decade older.  Gomez has speed, but he needs to learn how to hit.  Apparently he’s a great defender, so hopefully that will keep him in the field when his bat goes cold.

Best Pick: Ryan Dempster

Dempster is not likely to repeat last year’s numbers, but he has talent and I think he’ll have a good season.  People weren’t buying into last year’s performance, so he slid and the Summer Fox was able to capitalize.  Good value for this round.

Worst Pick: Billy Butler

Butler really hasn’t shown much in the his one and a half seasons in the league; though he is very young and could show growth this year, there were a few offensive players still to be had in later rounds with more proven track records.  Butler will be 23 this year, and he still has time to be a good player, but I’m not sure it will be this year.

Round Nine

1. Michael Bourn        Dissect Yourself

2. Orlando Cabrera     Orc Mischief

3. Fausto Carmona      Order of the Phoenix

4. Brian Wilson           Butt Admirals

5. Mike Napoli            Summer Fox

6. Chris Iannetta         Tossers

7. Heath Bell               Screaming Lemurs

8. Trevor Hoffman      The $5 Footlongs

9. Clayton Kershaw    Naterade

10. Brett Myers           The Balls

11. Orlando Hudson   Adrian's Revenge

12. Yunel Escobar       Macafey

Comments: This round is mostly catchers, middle infielders, and closers as teams try to round out their rosters.  Of the two Orlandos taken in this round, I’d rather have Cabrera, if only because Hudson might not be completely healthy this year.  Carmona solid pick if he can come close to repeat his success from 2007; he’s only 25 and he was hurt last year, so a rebound is definitely possible.  Michael Bourn is similar to Carlos Gomez in that they were both speedsters with batting average issues, but Bourn hit worse last year and he’s probably on a shorter leash since the Astros didn’t give up the best pitcher in baseball to get him.  I’m not a fan of Bourn. 

Best Pick: Chris Iannetta

I think Iannetta is a great value for this round and I think he could possibly be a top-five catcher this year.  I like him better than Mike Napoli, but only because of the Coors Field factor and the fact that Napoli is recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be ready for Opening Day. 

Worst Pick: Trevor Hoffman

I am not a Hoffman fan (even though he is from my hometown); I think he’s too old and I think he’ll miss pitching at Petco.  Hoffman should get saves and is not a bad option at closer because he’ll have the role to himself, but I look at the closers that were taken the next round and I think that Jonathan could have taken a better option.  I think Joel Hanrahan will be better than Hoffman this year, and I think guys like Matt Lindstrom and Joey Devine could be just as good (though Devine is still battling Brad Ziegler for the closer’s role).  Troy Percival went four rounds later than Hoffman and I think he’s a comparable reliever for this season.  There was better value to be had this round.

Round Ten

1. Brandon Morrow    Macafey

2. Joel Hanrahan         Adrian's Revenge

3. Frank Francisco       The Balls

4. Matt Lindstrom       Naterade

5. Kevin Slowey         The $5 Footlongs

6. Chris Perez              Screaming Lemurs

7. Aaron Harang         Tossers

8. Joey Devine                        Summer Fox

9. Bengie Molina         Butt Admirals

10. Mike Gonzalez      Order of the Phoenix

11. Chien-Ming Wang Orc Mischief

12. Chris Volstad        Dissect Yourself

Comments: What began in the previous round has turned into a full-blown run on closers as six closer candidates are taken this round.  I think all of the closers taken in this round will be handed the role for their respective teams on Opening Day.  I think Bengie Molina was a good pick this round; he tends to be underrated, but he had a really good season last year and he’s one of the few decent offensive players that the Giants have, so he’ll get a lot of chances for RBI.  I think Harang is underrated as well this year; he had a subpar season last year, possibly due to overuse, but he did finish the year strong with a good September.  I think he rebounds somewhat this year, probably not to his 2006-2007 numbers, but enough put him among the top 30 pitchers.

Best Pick: Kevin Slowey

I really like Slowey, and I think people look at the 3.99 ERA and don’t realize how good he actually was last year.  He’s a control artist who can still give you good strikeout numbers, and he had a better BB/9 ratio than everyone except Greg Maddux last year.  He’ll be 25 this year and I think he’s going to be at least a top-25 pitcher in 2009.

Worst Pick: Brandon Morrow

Morrow has talent, but I don’t think he’s going to show that talent as a starter, at least not based on his 2008 splits.  He was amazing as a reliever, with a miniscule 0.90 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 11.43, but those numbers dropped 1.46 and 9.00 in his 5 starts last year.  I’m not certain that he’s best suited as a starter, and I can’t advocate taking him over pitchers such as Harang and Slowey.  Though this news wasn’t available at the time of the draft, it looks like Morrow is suffering from a sore elbow and might miss the start of the season.  I can’t penalize Tim for not being aware of this when he picked Morrow since it hadn’t been reported yet, but it does represent some of the risk that comes with drafting starters who are converting from relief.

Round Eleven

1. Chad Qualls            Dissect Yourself

2. Jose Gullen              Orc Mischief

3. Jeff Francoeur         Order of the Phoenix

4. Chase Headley        Butt Admirals

5. Hiroki Kuroda         Summer Fox

6. Travis Hafner          Tossers

7. John Danks             Screaming Lemurs

8. Edwin Encarnacion The $5 Footlongs

9. Randy Johnson       Naterade

10. Gavin Floyd          The Balls

11. Melvin Mora         Adrian's Revenge

12. Jose Arredondo     Macafey

Comments: Edwin Encarnacion was a solid pick by Jonathan this round, and it threw me off as I had to scramble to find someone to fill my CI spot.  I ended up taking Mora, but I should have taken Mike Jacobs.  Kuroda is a good pitcher, and Rogstad made a good choice taking him here.  Qualls looks like he could be a solid choice for saves this year.  I’m not a Chase Headley fan, but I think he’ll have numbers comparable to JD Drew and Francoeur, but with a bit more upside.  Speaking of Francoeur, I’m not really certain what happened to him last year, but he’s young enough to bounce back.  I don’t think he hits .290 with 30 HR, but he should improve on last year’s numbers.  Jose Arredondo won’t be the closer to start the season, but he has a lot of talent and could quickly replace Brian Fuentes if Fuentes falters or is hurt. 

Best Pick: Randy Johnson

I think Johnson has one more season left in the tank.  At the very least he gives you great strikeout totals, and he’ll be moving to a much more pitcher-friendly park this year.  I think Johnson will slip into the top 30 pitchers by the end of the season.

Worst Pick: Gavin Floyd

I think this was a bad pick considering the pitchers that went in the next couple of rounds.  Floyd had great win totals last year, but he gives up too many walks and too many home runs.  That’s a bad combination for a pitcher to have.  I think Brubaker was seduced by his Wins and ERA in 2008, but I don’t think Floyd will be that pitcher in 2009.

Round Twelve

1. George Sherrill        Macafey

2. Gil Meche               Adrian's Revenge

3. Shin-Soo Choo        The Balls

4. Jered Weaver          Naterade

5. Chris Ray                The $5 Footlongs

6. Johnny Cueto          Screaming Lemurs

7. Mark Buehrle          Tossers

8. Jamie Moyer            Summer Fox

9. Elvis Andrus           Butt Admirals

10. Matt LaPorta         Order of the Phoenix

11. Fernando Rodney Orc Mischief

12. JD Drew                Dissect Yourself

Comments: I was happy to take Meche in this round; he’s underrated because of the team he plays for, but he won 14 games for them to go with 183 strikeouts.  He made up for a poor first month by never having an ERA over 3.65 the rest of the season.  George Sherrill was named the Orioles’ closer last week, but Chris Ray will be ready to step in if he blows it.  I have no idea who will have more saves, but I’m leaning towards Sherrill right now since he’s the manager’s choice to close.  Andrus is very young and will probably be inconsistent, but he can run and should chip in 20 steals if he gets a full season’s worth of playing time.  LaPorta is a solid minor-league prospect, but it seems that Mark will have to wait a little while for him to be promoted.  Rodney could be the Tigers’ closer this season, but it seems just as likely that it could be Brandon Lyon. 

Best Pick: Johnny Cueto

I wanted to get Cueto, but he probably wasn’t going to last another round.  Cueto had a rough first season in 2008, causing this once-hyped prospect’s draft stock to fall, but he still has the skills he showed in the minors and I think he’ll improve on last year’s numbers in his second time around.  Cueto had a great K/9 rate last year, and I think he just needs some more major league experience to season his ability.  Remember, he’s only 23.

Worst Pick: Jamie Moyer

Moyer has had a long and successful career, but does anyone really expect him to win 16 games again?  He doesn’t strike anyone out, and last year’s ERA of 3.71 was the first time he’s had an ERA under 4.00 since 2003.  I’m not saying Moyer doesn’t have value, but there were better pitchers available.

Check back tomorrow for our third and final installment in our league's draft analysis.  

 

 

 

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Draft Analysis - Part One

Let’s take a look at our recently concluded draft.  I will list the results for each round, followed by a few summary remarks and what I feel were the best and worst picks for each round.  This will be posted in three parts over the next couple of days.  I have a feeling it will engender some debate among our league and I look forward to being deemed a “noob” by Mark.  For those who aren’t part of this league and are wondering about its structure, this is a 12-team keeper league in a Head-to-Head format at Yahoo.  Each team keeps 7 players from last year without penalty.  Here are each team’s keepers:

Dissect Yourself

Owner: Micah

1. Brian Roberts

2. Troy Tulowitzki

3. Dan Uggla

4. Matt Holliday

5. Alfonso Soriano

6. Jay Bruce

7. CC Sabathia

Orc Mischief

Owner: Clint

1. Carlos Peña

2. Chipper Jones

3. Derek Jeter

4. Joe Mauer

5. Matt Kemp

6. Johnny Damon

7. Johan Santana

Order of the Phoenix

Owner: Mark

1. Lance Berkman

2. José Reyes

3. Vernon Wells

4. Josh Hamilton

5. David Ortiz

6. Scott Kazmir

7. Jonathan Papelbon

Butt Admirals

Owner: Kimball

1. Prince Fielder

2. Dustin Pedroia

3. Joey Votto

4. Grady Sizemore

5. Nate McLouth

6. Vladimir Guerrero

7. Dan Haren

Summer Fox

Owner: Rogstad

1. Brandon Phillips

2. Stephen Drew

3. Ichiro Suzuki

4. Manny Ramírez

5. Jason Bay

6. John Lackey

7. Daisuke Matsuzaka

Tossers

Owner: Troost

1. Conor Jackson

2. Álex Rodríguez

3. Michael Young

4. Corey Hart

5. Torii Hunter

6. Jonathan Broxton

7. Francisco Cordero

Screaming Lemurs

Owner: Ben P.

1. Ian Kinsler

2. Aramis Ramírez

3. Ryan Braun

4. Carl Crawford

5. Curtis Granderson

6. Cole Hamels

7. Brandon Webb

The $5 Footlongs! (previously known as the Dinos)

Owner: Jonathan

1. Miguel Cabrera

2. Chase Utley

3. Albert Pujols

4. Carlos Beltrán

5. Jacoby Ellsbury

6. Bobby Abreu

7. Tim Lincecum

Naterade

Owner: Nate

1. Russell Martin

2. Justin Morneau

3. Evan Longoria

4. Nick Markakis

5. Justin Upton

6. Félix Hernández

7. Chad Billingsley

The Balls

Owner: Brubaker

1. Ryan Howard

2. Hanley Ramírez

3. Adrián González

4. Carlos Quentin

5. Shane Victorino

6. Jake Peavy

7. Joe Nathan

Adrian's Revenge

Owner: Ben W.

1. Mark Teixeira

2. Carlos Lee

3. Brian McCann

4. Hunter Pence

5. Ryan Zimmerman

6. Chris Young

7. Ervin Santana

Macafey

Owner: Tim

1. Geovany Soto

2. Derrek Lee

3. David Wright

4. Jimmy Rollins

5. B.J. Upton

6. Álex Ríos

7. Roy Halladay

Round One

1. Chris Davis             Dissect Yourself

2. Alexei Ramirez       Orc Mischief

3. Francisco Liriano    Order of the Phoenix

4. Brad Lidge              Butt Admirals

5. Kevin Youkilis        Summer Fox

6. Roy Oswalt             Tossers

7. Adam Dunn            Screaming Lemurs

8. Rafael Furcal           The $5 Footlongs

9. Robinson Cano       Naterade

10. Aubrey Huff         The Balls

11. Magglio Ordonez  Adrian's Revenge

12. Matt Wieters         Macafey

Comments: Pretty different from the way I thought things were going to turn out.  I felt that Adam Dunn was a little bit of a reach for the first round, but I find no fault with the Lemurs taking him here since he might not have been there the next time around.  It seems like the Butt Admirals reached on Brad Lidge, since there were other comparable closers available the next round.  A lot of teams are trying to find their next keepers in this round; I had a later pick so I just went with the best hitter available. 

Best Pick: Rafael Furcal

I think he’s going to be healthy and have a really good season in ’09.  I wish he had fallen a few more spots to me.

Worst Pick: Matt Wieters

This pick’s status as the worst depends on what roster moves Tim makes during the season.  Matt Wieters is probably the best hitting prospect in the league, but Tim already has a young catcher in Geovany Soto.  Taking Wieters doesn’t really make sense here since it’s not certain that he won’t spend the first two months of the season in the minors.  This pick only makes sense if Tim is planning on trading one of these two catchers sometime during the season.  If that happens, how we will look on this pick in the future will depend on who Tim receives in return. 

Round Two

1. Yovani Gallardo     Macafey

2. James Shields          Adrian's Revenge

3. Jermaine Dye          The Balls

4. Josh Beckett            Naterade

5. Mariano Rivera       The $5 Footlongs

6. Victor Martinez       Screaming Lemurs

7. Cliff Lee                    Tossers

8. Garrett Atkins         Summer Fox

9. Rich Harden            Butt Admirals

10. Ryan Ludwick      Order of the Phoenix

11. Jon Lester              Orc Mischief

12. Francisco Rodriguez Dissect Yourself

Comments: A couple more closers go in this round.  I think Gallardo is primed to have a good year.  I am not a Cliff Lee fan, and I think Troost would have been better off passing on him and getting someone like Jon Lester or Adam Wainwright.  It’s my opinion that Victor Martinez will bounce back this year; the Lemurs probably could have waited to take another catcher like Kelly Shoppach or Bengie Molina, but I’m not certain who they would have taken in this round instead.

Best Pick: Jon Lester

I really like Lester and I think he’ll have a strong season, better than Lee or Harden.

Worst Pick: Rich Harden

Harden has average 14 starts a season for the past 4 years, and he’s only made 25 or more starts in a season twice.  He has talent, but I think the injury risk he represents is too great to for him to be a good pick in this round, especially with so many other options available.

Round Three

1. Ryan Doumit          Dissect Yourself

2. Brad Hawpe            Orc Mischief

3. Brian Fuentes          Order of the Phoenix

4. Chone Figgins         Butt Admirals

5. Carlos Delgado       Summer Fox

6. Raul Ibanez             Tossers

7. JJ Hardy                 Screaming Lemurs

8. Howie Kendrick     The $5 Footlongs

9. Andre Ethier           Naterade

10. Mike Aviles           The Balls

11. Joakim Soria          Adrian's Revenge

12. Adam Wainwright Macafey

Comments: Owners focused mostly on offensive players this round, with a couple closers taken as well.  There’s a small focus on middle infielders with the picks of Hardy, Kendrick and Aviles.  I like Brad Hawpe, and I think he’ll have a good year as he tries to replace Matt Holliday’s RBI production.  Raul Ibanez is another decent pick; he’s on a three-year roll in which he’s never had less than 105 RBI or hit worse than .289.  He’s also averaged 157 games played over that same period, a testament to his durability.  He should post similar numbers for the Phillies, as he’s moving to a better team and a better ballpark.

Best Pick: J.J. Hardy

I think Hardy is going to have a great season, but he’s the best pick in this round because he was the best middle infielder available, and it’s a long drop to the next best available middle infielder.  The Lemurs are not going to have to worry about choosing between players like Kaz Matsui and Clint Barmes later on.

Worst Pick: Chone Figgins

I’m not a Figgins fan.  He hasn’t been very durable the past two years, and he really doesn’t provide you good value in any category aside from stolen bases, which have been in decline for the past four seasons.  He’s had one stellar season of batting average in the past three years, which seems to skew his perceived value upwards, sandwiched by two mediocre ones.  I think Kimball could have picked a player with more offensive talent in this round, like Hawpe or Pat Burrell.  It’s possible that Figgins would have still been around by Kimball’s next pick.

Round Four

1. Nelson Cruz            Macafey

2. Jhonny Peralta         Adrian's Revenge

3. Carlos Marmol        The Balls

4. Lastings Milledge   Naterade

5. A.J. Burnett            The $5 Footlongs

6. James Loney           Screaming Lemurs

7. Bobby Jenks            Tossers

8. Joba Chamberlain    Summer Fox

9. Edinson Volquez    Butt Admirals

10. Pat Burrell             Order of the Phoenix

11. Jose Valverde        Orc Mischief

12. BJ Ryan                Dissect Yourself

Comments: I think Tim reached for Cruz in this round; Cruz is a good speculative pick, but he had a very poor track record in the majors prior to last season, and I’m not certain that he’ll be this year’s Ryan Ludwick.  Tim could have taken Lastings Milledge instead, who showed promise over nearly a full season last year and has more room for growth than Cruz.  Marmol is a fantastic reliever, but I’ve read that Kevin Gregg is the front runner for the closer’s spot so far this spring.  Four more relievers are taken from the board this round.  I’m surprised Mark didn’t try to take Burnett before this round since he was thinking about keeping him.  The Admirals took Volquez at the right spot, right after all of the proven pitchers were taken.  I had to take Peralta this round since I missed out on Hardy.

Best Pick: Lastings Milledge

He seems primed to take the next step forward after a decent full year in 2008.  He could be a 20/20 player as soon as this season, and he looks like a solid keeper.  The Nationals beefed up their lineup with Adam Dunn, which can only help Milledge’s value.

Worst Pick: James Loney

I’m a big fan of Loney as a player, but I don’t like him nearly as much in fantasy, especially in this round with other corner infielders available.  Loney won’t provide the power that you’d want from his position, though he is a career .303 hitter.  I don’t think he’s going to be much more than what he’s already shown us: a low-power, good-average first baseman.  Is Loney that much more valuable than a guy like Adam LaRoche, who will hit for less average but can provide ten more home runs and similar RBI numbers?  I think Loney is a little more valuable because of his youth, but LaRoche went three rounds later.

Round 5

1. Adrian Beltre          Dissect Yourself

2. Rick Ankiel             Orc Mischief

3. Pablo Sandoval       Order of the Phoenix

4. Jorge Cantu             Butt Admirals

5. Placido Polanco      Summer Fox

6. Jose Lopez             Tossers

7. Alex Gordon           Screaming Lemurs

8. Adam Jones           The $5 Footlongs

9. Matt Capps             Naterade

10. Xavier Nady         The Balls

11. Cameron Maybin  Adrian's Revenge

12. Josh Johnson         Macafey

Comments: I like a lot of picks in this round.  Beltre is a solid pick at third base, providing you 25 HR and double-digit steals.  Pablo Sandoval is a good pick by Mark; when it happened, I didn’t think too much of it, but I like it more now that I realize he is catcher eligible in our league due to the 11 games he played at the position last year.  Alex Gordon could be ready for a breakout season in his third year; his OPS has risen by a hundred points in the second half of his first two seasons, a possible sign that he’s been able to figure pitchers out better the more he plays.  Matt Capps is an underrated closer because of the team he plays for, but I think he’s just as good or better than closers like Jenks or Ryan.  Since Milledge and Adam Jones had already been taken, both of whom I had been targeting as young outfielders with upside, I reached a little for Maybin, who only has 81 career at bats, but he’ll be given the chance to succeed this year as the Marlins’ centerfielder.  Maybin’s talented, and I needed a young player with star-upside to build around, so I’ll be happy if he can put up numbers comparable to Milledge or Jones last year.

Best Pick: Rick Ankiel

Despite his age, last year was Ankiel’s first full-season as a major-league hitter, and he’s talented enough to improve on last year’s numbers.  He’ll hit 30 HR if he can get 500 at bats, which he will do if he stays healthy.  At the very least, he should be a clone of Pat Burrell, who went the previous round.

Worst Pick: Xavier Nady

Brubaker might have been suckered in by this former Padres prospect’s career year, but Nady is a 30-year-old part-time player whose career average is .280 and whose 555 at bats last year represent a career-high.  Nady’s numbers in 59 games with the Yankees are more representative of the type of player he’s been throughout his career. What concerns me is that he’s not guaranteed to have 500 at bats again this year; Nady will have to share playing with Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui among the corner outfield spots and at DH.  I don’t think Nady will come close to last year’s numbers.

Round 6

1. Erik Bedard            Macafey

2. Zack Greinke          Adrian's Revenge

3. Ricky Nolasco         The Balls

4. Miguel Tejada         Naterade

5. Delmon Young       The $5 Footlongs

6. David Price             Screaming Lemurs

7. Jayson Werth          Tossers

8. Ken Griffey Jr.        Summer Fox

9. Ryan Theriot           Butt Admirals

10. Paul Konerko        Order of the Phoenix

11. Max Scherzer        Orc Mischief

12. Carlos Zambrano   Dissect Yourself

Comments: Teams are starting to fill out their pitching staffs, and there are a few intriguing picks here.  Bedard could be a steal in this round if he’s completely recovered from last year’s shoulder injury.  Nolasco could be another great pick if he’s not worn down from last year’s career-high 212 innings pitched.  Zambrano’s stats have been in decline the past few seasons, but this seems like the right place for him to be taken.  Jayson Werth is a solid 20/20 outfielder if he can get to 500 at bats.  We’re still waiting for Delmon Young’s career to take off, but he would be great value here if he can improve in Minnesota, though he will be battling for playing time with three other outfielders.  I don’t like taking Miguel Tejada in this round; he’s an older player whose skills have diminished and whose off-the-field legal problems could overshadow his time with the Astros. 

Best Pick: Zack Greinke

Greinke has improved greatly over the past two years, and I think he’s underrated as a starting pitcher.  Last year in the second half, his 9.08 K/9 ratio was better than CC Sabathia, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Javier Vazquez, Chad Billingsley, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, and Cole Hamels.  His K/BB ratio of 3.95 was better than Lincecum, Burnett, and Shields.  He’s only 25, and I think he’ll be getting better this season.

Worst Pick: Ken Griffey Jr.

Over at ESPN, Griffey’s average draft position is 197.  Rogstad took him with the 152^nd pick.  I don’t think Griffey will hit more than 15 HR this year.  Other offensive players available: Milton Bradley, Adam LaRoche, Willy Taveras, Mark Reynolds, Kelly Johnson, Jim Thome, Orlando Cabrera.  I don’t feel like saying anything more.

Check back tomorrow for the second part of my draft analysis.

 

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First Round Mock Draft

Now that we have everyone’s keepers submitted, we can see which players are going to be available.  I’m going to do a quick mock draft of the first round, just to see how it might play out.  I will list each team’s keepers and then which player I think they should take.  Let’s see how things might play out when we draft this weekend.

Pick 1

Dissect Yourself

Brian Roberts

Troy Tulowitzki

Dan Uggla

Matt Holliday

Alfonso Soriano

Jay Bruce

CC Sabathia

They Draft: Kevin Youkilis

Though there are some ace pitchers still available such as Roy Oswalt, Dissect Yourself already has CC Sabathia and I think they would be best served to fill in one of their corner infield spots.  The best corner infielder available is Youkilis, and they’ll be able to play him at first or third.

Pick 2

Orc Mischief (previously known as Self Indulgence)

Joe Mauer

Carlos Pena

Chipper Jones

Derek Jeter

Matt Kemp

Johnny Damon

Johan Santana

They Draft: Alexei Ramirez

I could see them taking Oswalt as well, or an outfielder like Magglio Ordonez, but I think they have to look at position scarcity here and pick Ramirez.  A lot of people are high on Ramirez this year, and he could be a top-five second baseman this year.  Orc Mischief needs a bit more power on their team, but it’s always easier to find power later on in the draft, and Ramirez will give them a good mixture of power and speed.

Pick 3

Order of the Phoenix (previously known as Val Kilmer’s Asshole)

Lance Berkman

Jose Reyes

Vernon Wells

Josh Hamilton

David Ortiz

Scott Kazmir

Jonathan Papelbon

They Draft: Roy Oswalt

Order of the Phoenix has a solid offense and a dominant closer; what they need here is to solidify their starting rotation.  Oswalt is the best value on the board here, and having him will help if/when Kazmir misses a few starts.

Pick 4

Butt Admirals

Prince Fielder

Dustin Pedroia

Joey Votto

Grady Sizemore

Nate McLouth

Vladimir Guerrero

Dan Haren

They Draft: Chris Davis

I think they have to take an infielder here, though dominant closers like Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, and Brad Lidge are available.  I think there are enough closers available that they will be able to get someone like Brian Fuentes or Jose Valverde with their next two picks.  Davis is only 23 and has a lot of upside, especially as a power hitter.  I think the Admirals have to take him here, if only because he could be a solid keeper for the next six years.

Pick 5

Summer Fox

Brandon Phillips

Stephen Drew

Ichiro Suzuki

Manny Ramirez

Jason Bay

John Lackey

Daisuke Matsuzaka

They Draft: Magglio Ordonez

Summer Fox doesn’t need another pitcher in this round, so they take the best hitter available.  If they don’t take Ordonez, the next best hitters that will fall to them will probably be Aubrey Huff, Raul Ibanez, or Garrett Atkins.  Ordonez won’t give them much power, but he hasn’t hit worse than .292 in the past decade, and he’ll have a shot at 100 RBI again because of the strong offense around him.

Pick 6

Tossers

Conor Jackson

Alex Rodriguez

Michael Young

Corey Hart

Torii Hunter

Jonathan Broxton

Francisco Cordero

They Draft: Francisco Liriano

The Tossers definitely don’t need to take a closer, so I think they go with the pick with the most upside here.  Liriano could be an elite pitcher this year if he’s fully back from Tommy John surgery, which is why I think he should be taken over James Shields.  The Tossers need to swing for the fences with this first pick if they want to get back into playoff contention.  On sadder note, I’m sorry about the Alex Rodriguez injury.  He’ll be impossible to replace for the first month.

Pick 7

Screaming Lemurs

Ian Kinsler

Aramis Ramirez

Ryan Braun

Carl Crawford

Curtis Granderson

Cole Hamels

Brandon Webb

They Draft: Mariano Rivera

I’m not really certain what the Lemurs do here.  They need a power bat, but they’d have to reach to get one with this pick.  They could draft Rafael Furcal and stock up on some speed, but I think they pass on him because of his recent injury history.  I think they go with the best player available, and that’s probably Mariano Rivera.  Joakim Soria and Brad Lidge are also available, but Rivera was lights out last year.  This is a risky pick since Rivera did have shoulder surgery this offseason, but it was deemed minor and he does appear to be healthy.

Pick 8

Dinos

Miguel Cabrera

Chase Utley

Albert Pujols

Carlos Beltran

Jacoby Ellsbury

Bobby Abreu

Tim Lincecum

They Draft: Brad Lidge

The Dinos are pretty set at offense this round, though they could take Furcal to solidify their infield.  James Shields is also an option here, but I think he slides down farther, plus the Dinos are probably feeling pretty good about waiting to draft another starter since they already have Lincecum.  I think they take a closer here, and it will be Lidge over Soria.  Lidge did report some tightness in his forearm in spring training, but he said he felt better after pitching a bullpen session recently.  Lidge plays for a team that will give him more save chances, and he strikeouts out more hitters than Soria.

Pick 9

Naterade

Russell Martin

Justin Morneau

Evan Longoria

Nick Markakis

Justin Upton

Felix Hernandez

Chad Billingsley

They Draft: Jermaine Dye

They could take Furcal or Soria, but I think they take a veteran hitter here with power.  Dye is getting older but he has been pretty consistent the past four years, despite a fluctuating batting average.  Dye should come close to hitting 30 HR again with 100 RBI, so I think he gets picked here.

Pick 10

The Balls

Ryan Howard

Hanley Ramirez

Adrian Gonzalez

Carlos Quentin

Shane Victorino

Jake Peavy

Joe Nathan

They Draft: James Shields

I don’t think Shields can fall any further than here.  Shields is probably the best player available, though I think The Balls could use another hitter, but they’d have to reach for Aubrey Huff or Garrett Atkins.  They don’t need another closer, so I think they add pitching depth and wait for another hitter next round.

Pick 11

Adrian’s Revenge

Brian McCann

Mark Teixiera

Ryan Zimmerman

Carlos Lee

Hunter Pence

Chris B. Young

Ervin Santana

I Draft: Rafael Furcal

This is my pick, and I take the best offensive player available.

Pick 12

Macafeys

Geovany Soto

Derrek Lee

David Wright

Jimmy Rollins

BJ Upton

Alex Rios

Roy Halladay

They Draft: Joakim Soria or Josh Beckett

The Macafeys have two picks in a row, so they can do pretty much whatever they want here.  I think they take a pitcher, and it will probably be Soria or Beckett, though Francisco Rodriguez or Zack Greinke is also available.

Let me know what you think by leaving a comment.  We’ll see how closely the real draft follows this one next week.

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Best of the Best Keepers

With each owner’s seven keepers submitted, let’s take a look at the three teams that I think have the top keepers.  I will list their keepers along with their ESPN and Yahoo ranking, and I will give a few thoughts on why I think their teams have the best keepers.

The Dinos

1. Albert Pujols (3,3)

2. Miguel Cabrera (8,7)

3. Tim Lincecum (12,21)

4. Chase Utley (17,22)

5. Carlos Beltran (25,19)

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (62,51)

7. Bobby Abreu (60,94)

Barring injuries, the Dinos should be set for the next few years with this core.  They have last year’s Cy Young and MVP winners, they have one of the best second baseman in the game, and they have a young speedster who stole 50 bases in his first full season.  Their top-five could all be top-20 players this season.  There’s a decent mix of power and speed, along with an ace to head up the rotation.  The only negative is that Chase Utley should miss most of April, but it sounds like he’s progressing rapidly in his return from surgery.

Macafeys

1. David Wright (4,5)

2. Jimmy Rollins (10,12)

3. BJ Upton (41,14)

4. Roy Halladay (24,58)

5. Alex Rios (44,43)

6. Geovany Soto (71,54)

7. Derrek Lee (55,95)

The Macafeys also have a great foundation of young and talented players, with two first-rounders and a staff ace.  This team has a better mix of speed and power than the Dinos, but the Dinos have a deeper top-five and there are some question marks about some of the Macafeys players.  Will Geovany Soto duplicate last year’s success?  Can Alex Rios put his talents for power and speed together for one season?  Will BJ Upton and Jimmy Rollins find their power strokes again?  This team will be good, but how good remains to be seen.

Screaming Lemurs

1. Ryan Braun (6,8)

2. Ian Kinsler (26,11)

3. Carl Crawford (33,28)

4. Brandon Webb (28,46)

5. Cole Hamels (35,45)

6. Aramis Ramirez (42,39)

7. Curtis Granderson (50,42)

The Lemurs are just completely solid from top to bottom.  Though they don’t have the as many elite players as the Dinos or the Macafeys, all of their players are ranked in the top-50 to begin the season.  That’s pretty impressive, and it’s that level of depth that keeps them right behind these two teams.  There’s a lot of speed on this team, but probably not as much power as the other two teams.  Having two aces means they can focus on hitting for the first few rounds.  This team just needs Ian Kinsler to stay healthy and rebound seasons from Carl Crawford and Curtis Granderson to challenge for the championship. 

Let me know what you think.  There’s also a poll if you feel like giving a vote.  I’m going to try to do a mock draft of the first round by Friday, so there’s that to look forward to.  

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My Keepers - Adrian's Revenge

For posterity’s sake, here’s my roster and the seven players I will be keeping.  I finished second last year, and hopefully I will be in playoff contention in 2009.

Adrian’s Revenge

Erick Aybar (LAA - 2B,SS)  

Nelson Cruz (Tex - OF)         

Brad Hawpe (Col - OF)         

Raúl Ibañez (Phi - OF)           

Kelly Johnson (Atl - 2B)        

Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD - 3B)           

Carlos Lee (Hou - OF)           

Brian McCann (Atl - C)         

Hunter Pence (Hou - OF)      

Jhonny Peralta (Cle - SS)       

Travis Snider (Tor - OF)

Mark Teixeira (NYY - 1B)    

Chad Tracy (Ari - 1B,3B)      

Brandon Wood (LAA - 3B,SS)         

Chris Young (Ari - OF)         

Ryan Zimmerman (Was - 3B)

Matt Capps (Pit - RP)

Joel Hanrahan (Was - SP,RP)

Aaron Harang (Cin - SP)       

Brad Lidge (Phi - RP)

Ted Lilly (ChC - SP)  

Jamie Moyer (Phi - SP)          

Ervin Santana (LAA - SP)     

Javier Vázquez (Atl - SP)      

Todd Wellemeyer (StL - SP,RP)       

Kerry Wood (Cle - RP)          

1. Mark Teixiera

2. Carlos Lee

3. Brian McCann

4. Hunter Pence

5. Chris B. Young

6. Ervin Santana

7. Ryan Zimmerman 

I will leave the analysis up to anyone who wishes to comment.

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Last of the Keepers - Macafeys

Finally, let’s look at the last team in our league, the 2008 champions: the Macafeys.  The Macafeys have had a strong team that past few years; this was the second year in a row that they made the championship round, and this is their first championship.  Will they repeat?

The Macafeys

Elijah Dukes (Was - OF)        

Adam Dunn (Was - 1B,OF)  

Jeff Francoeur (Atl - OF)       

Alex Gordon (KC - 1B,3B)   

Carlos Gómez (Min - OF)      

Derrek Lee (ChC - 1B)          

Magglio Ordóñez (Det - OF) 

Jimmy Rollins (Phi - SS)        

Álex Ríos (Tor - OF)  

Geovany Soto (ChC - C)       

Ian Stewart (Col - 2B,3B)     

B.J. Upton (TB - 2B,OF)       

David Wright (NYM - 3B)    

Cha Seung Baek (SD - SP,RP)          

Grant Balfour (TB - RP)        

Taylor Buchholz (Col - SP,RP)          

Joey Devine (Oak - RP)         

Freddy García (NYM - SP)   

Jesse Litsch (Tor - SP)           

Kyle Lohse (StL - SP)           

Sean Marshall (ChC - SP,RP)

Zach Miner (Det - SP,RP)     

Ross Ohlendorf (Pit - SP,RP)

Josh Outman (Oak - SP,RP)  

The Macafeys are stacked in the infield with Jimmy Rollins and David Wright, both consensus first-round picks.  Wright is 26 and Rollins is 30, so there’s no reason to think that they can’t produce first round numbers again this year.  Rollins missed time early last season due to an ankle injury, but he shouldn’t be bothered by it this year.  Both players are easy picks due to age and track record, though Rollins will lose value if he fails to hit 20 HR again this year. 

B.J. Upton’s value dropped last season when he hit 9 HR after hitting 24 in 2008, but it seems likely that shoulder problems hindered his power output last year.  Offseason surgery will hopefully fix that, though he will miss the first week of the season.  I think Upton will bounce back to hit 20 HR again.  He’s young, and he did manage to hit 7 HR in the playoffs last year.  Throw in 40 steals, and you have a player looking to bounce back to elite outfielder levels.

Last season’s NL Rookie of the Year, Geovany Soto propelled himself near the top of the catchers’ rankings with a great first year.  Soto was inconsistent last year, but he showed flashes of greatness.  I think we can expect another 20 HR season from Soto, maybe more as he gets comfortable with league’s pitching.  He’s definitely a top-five catcher.

The Macafeys have a lot of keepers to choose from, and I almost want to go with Roy Halladay, but rather than choose that elite pitcher, I’m going to go with Alex Rios.  We’ve been waiting for Rios to have a 20/20 or even a 30/30 season for a couple of years now, but I think he puts it together this year.  Rios might never be an elite outfielder, but his ability to hit for average and his speed make him a solid contributor.  The upside his skills represent say that you have to keep him in case he does put it together this year.  I’m encouraged by the power surge he experienced in the second half last year, so I do think he can take that next step forward. 

Two more spots.  I’m going to pass up Halladay again and go with Derrek Lee.  Lee’s not getting any younger, but he’s still a good hitter, providing you middle-tier value at the first base position.  He’s not going to hit 30 HR, but he’ll give you a batting average around .300 and good RBI and Runs totals.  Lee is not elite, but he does represent a solid value, and I don’t think the Macafeys are going to be able to pick up any first baseman close to Lee’s skill level.

I considered a few different players for this last spot.  You know that Adam Dunn will hit for power and hurt your average, and this team could use some more power, but I don’t think this team needs another outfielder.  Besides, Dunn is usually available by the ninth round over at ESPN, so I think that he’ll be available for the Macafeys to draft if they don’t keep him.  Magglio Ordonez is getting older and he doesn’t run or hit for power anymore.  He does hit for average and could provide numbers similar to Rios, minus the steals, but I still don’t think this team needs another outfielder.  I really like Elijah Dukes for his potential if he can stay healthy and stay out of trouble, but he’s not a keeper yet.  I think it’s time to let go of Alex Gordon.  While Gordon still has a chance to have a good career and it’s possible that he breaks out this year, I don’t think he’s valuable enough to be a keeper.  He’ll probably slip due to the fact that he hasn’t measured up to the hype, so wait a few rounds and then draft him.  I think the last spot has to go to Roy Halladay.  I don’t like to keep pitchers and I almost want to take Ordonez instead, but consistently dominant pitchers like Halladay are important in head-to-head.  Halladay will start at least 30 games and give you elite control.  He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he will help you in ERA and WHIP.  All of these other players could fall in our draft, but I don’t think Halladay makes it to the Macafeys in the first round.

All right, that’s it, all the teams have been looked at except for mine.  I will post my keepers on Wednesday, the day keepers are due for our league, and as I said last time, I will try to rank the top-three teams based on their keepers.

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Almost Out Of Keepers - The Balls

As we near the finish line, let’s look at last year’s third-place finisher, The Balls.  Will they be contending for a title in 2009?  Here’s their roster.

The Balls

Garrett Atkins (Col - 1B,3B) 

Mike Aviles (KC - 2B,SS)     

Milton Bradley (ChC - OF)   

Pat Burrell (TB - OF) 

Jack Cust (Oak - OF) 

Mark DeRosa (Cle - 1B,2B,3B,OF)  

Chone Figgins (LAA - 2B,3B,OF)    

Adrián González (SD - 1B)   

Ramón Hernández (Cin - C)  

Ryan Howard (Phi - 1B)        

Carlos Quentin (CWS - OF)  

Hanley Ramírez (Fla - SS)     

Shane Victorino (Phi - OF)    

Randy Winn (SF - OF)          

Bronson Arroyo (Cin - SP)    

Erik Bedard (Sea - SP)          

Zack Greinke (KC - SP,RP)  

Trevor Hoffman (Mil - RP)    

Joe Nathan (Min - RP)           

Ricky Nolasco (Fla - SP)       

Jake Peavy (SD - SP) 

Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP)  

Matt Thornton (CWS - RP)   

Edinson Vólquez (Cin - SP)  

Adam Wainwright (StL - SP)

Chris Young (SD - SP)          

Hanley Ramirez is an easy choice, as he’s typically believed to be one of the top-two players in fantasy baseball.  He’s only 25, he has a career OPS of .906 in three seasons, and he’s averaged 45 SB in his short career.  According to his coach, Ramirez will hit primarily out of third spot this year, possibly limiting his stolen base opportunities but increasing his RBI chances.  Ramirez will give The Balls another elite season.

Ryan Howard is not the first-round fantasy hitter that he was during his MVP season in 2006, mainly because it doesn’t look like he will ever help you in batting average, but his power keeps him among the elite first basemen in the league.  Howard has averaged 51 HR in the last three seasons, and he should come close to hitting 50 again this year.  Howard is surrounded by a strong offense, so he’ll have a lot of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Carlos Quentin was one of Arizona’s best prospects, but he was never able to put things together until he was traded to the White Sox, where he put together a great year until he missed all of September because of a fractured wrist.  Quentin might lose some power because of last year’s wrist injury, but he should be able to repeat his other stats from last year.

The Padres tried to dump his contract during the offseason, but that doesn’t mean you should think about getting rid of Jake Peavy.  Peavy missed some time last year with an elbow injury, but he pitched great when healthy, and he’s been an elite talent for the past few years.  If Peavy can bring last year’s K/9 rate up to his career numbers, he’ll be in for another great season.

Adrian Gonzalez is another Padre, but unlike Peavy, playing at Petco doesn’t help his value.  Gonzalez has put up solid power numbers since joining the Padres, but most of his best work is done on the road, where his OPS is over .100 points higher than at home.  He’s only 26 and he had his most homers yet for the Padres last year, so there’s hope that we might one day see him hit 40 HR in a season.  Even if it’s not this year, expect another 30 HR season from Gonzalez.

Shane Victorino might not ever be a 20/20 player, but there’s nothing wrong with being a 15/30 player.  Victorino will give you close to 100 Runs and an average around .290, but the steals are where he gets most of his value.  Not a bad outfielder to have, he’s being drafted in the 8^th round on average over at ESPN. 

For the final pick, I’m going to eschew my normal guidelines and take Joe Nathan, a closer.  I took Joe Nathan instead of guys like Chone Figgins and Garrett Atkins because I feel he gives you the best value.  Nathan has never had less than 36 Saves in a season, and he rarely walks anyone, giving your team a good WHIP and ERA.  Nathan’s K/9 rate has been dropping from its formerly elite levels over the past couple of years, but he still strikes out a batter per inning which is more than closers such as Huston Street, Joakim Soria, and Matt Capps did last year.  I think Nathan is the guy to go with here.

As far as Figgins and Atkins go, I like Atkins better, but I’m not sold on Atkins ever developing the power that you want from a corner infielder.  Don’t be seduced by Figgins’ steals totals over the past few seasons; he will not give you much of anything else.  This team already has Ramirez and Victorino, so they should be fine with the speed they have going into the draft.  Figgins has been running less over the past couple of years because of injuries, but don’t expect him to suddenly steal 45 bases this year.

All right, just one more team to go, last year’s champion Macafeys.  I hope to get to their keepers next week, and then once everyone submits their 2009 keepers, I will do a short rundown of the top 3.  

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