Thursday, March 5, 2009

First Round Mock Draft

Now that we have everyone’s keepers submitted, we can see which players are going to be available.  I’m going to do a quick mock draft of the first round, just to see how it might play out.  I will list each team’s keepers and then which player I think they should take.  Let’s see how things might play out when we draft this weekend.

Pick 1

Dissect Yourself

Brian Roberts

Troy Tulowitzki

Dan Uggla

Matt Holliday

Alfonso Soriano

Jay Bruce

CC Sabathia

They Draft: Kevin Youkilis

Though there are some ace pitchers still available such as Roy Oswalt, Dissect Yourself already has CC Sabathia and I think they would be best served to fill in one of their corner infield spots.  The best corner infielder available is Youkilis, and they’ll be able to play him at first or third.

Pick 2

Orc Mischief (previously known as Self Indulgence)

Joe Mauer

Carlos Pena

Chipper Jones

Derek Jeter

Matt Kemp

Johnny Damon

Johan Santana

They Draft: Alexei Ramirez

I could see them taking Oswalt as well, or an outfielder like Magglio Ordonez, but I think they have to look at position scarcity here and pick Ramirez.  A lot of people are high on Ramirez this year, and he could be a top-five second baseman this year.  Orc Mischief needs a bit more power on their team, but it’s always easier to find power later on in the draft, and Ramirez will give them a good mixture of power and speed.

Pick 3

Order of the Phoenix (previously known as Val Kilmer’s Asshole)

Lance Berkman

Jose Reyes

Vernon Wells

Josh Hamilton

David Ortiz

Scott Kazmir

Jonathan Papelbon

They Draft: Roy Oswalt

Order of the Phoenix has a solid offense and a dominant closer; what they need here is to solidify their starting rotation.  Oswalt is the best value on the board here, and having him will help if/when Kazmir misses a few starts.

Pick 4

Butt Admirals

Prince Fielder

Dustin Pedroia

Joey Votto

Grady Sizemore

Nate McLouth

Vladimir Guerrero

Dan Haren

They Draft: Chris Davis

I think they have to take an infielder here, though dominant closers like Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, and Brad Lidge are available.  I think there are enough closers available that they will be able to get someone like Brian Fuentes or Jose Valverde with their next two picks.  Davis is only 23 and has a lot of upside, especially as a power hitter.  I think the Admirals have to take him here, if only because he could be a solid keeper for the next six years.

Pick 5

Summer Fox

Brandon Phillips

Stephen Drew

Ichiro Suzuki

Manny Ramirez

Jason Bay

John Lackey

Daisuke Matsuzaka

They Draft: Magglio Ordonez

Summer Fox doesn’t need another pitcher in this round, so they take the best hitter available.  If they don’t take Ordonez, the next best hitters that will fall to them will probably be Aubrey Huff, Raul Ibanez, or Garrett Atkins.  Ordonez won’t give them much power, but he hasn’t hit worse than .292 in the past decade, and he’ll have a shot at 100 RBI again because of the strong offense around him.

Pick 6

Tossers

Conor Jackson

Alex Rodriguez

Michael Young

Corey Hart

Torii Hunter

Jonathan Broxton

Francisco Cordero

They Draft: Francisco Liriano

The Tossers definitely don’t need to take a closer, so I think they go with the pick with the most upside here.  Liriano could be an elite pitcher this year if he’s fully back from Tommy John surgery, which is why I think he should be taken over James Shields.  The Tossers need to swing for the fences with this first pick if they want to get back into playoff contention.  On sadder note, I’m sorry about the Alex Rodriguez injury.  He’ll be impossible to replace for the first month.

Pick 7

Screaming Lemurs

Ian Kinsler

Aramis Ramirez

Ryan Braun

Carl Crawford

Curtis Granderson

Cole Hamels

Brandon Webb

They Draft: Mariano Rivera

I’m not really certain what the Lemurs do here.  They need a power bat, but they’d have to reach to get one with this pick.  They could draft Rafael Furcal and stock up on some speed, but I think they pass on him because of his recent injury history.  I think they go with the best player available, and that’s probably Mariano Rivera.  Joakim Soria and Brad Lidge are also available, but Rivera was lights out last year.  This is a risky pick since Rivera did have shoulder surgery this offseason, but it was deemed minor and he does appear to be healthy.

Pick 8

Dinos

Miguel Cabrera

Chase Utley

Albert Pujols

Carlos Beltran

Jacoby Ellsbury

Bobby Abreu

Tim Lincecum

They Draft: Brad Lidge

The Dinos are pretty set at offense this round, though they could take Furcal to solidify their infield.  James Shields is also an option here, but I think he slides down farther, plus the Dinos are probably feeling pretty good about waiting to draft another starter since they already have Lincecum.  I think they take a closer here, and it will be Lidge over Soria.  Lidge did report some tightness in his forearm in spring training, but he said he felt better after pitching a bullpen session recently.  Lidge plays for a team that will give him more save chances, and he strikeouts out more hitters than Soria.

Pick 9

Naterade

Russell Martin

Justin Morneau

Evan Longoria

Nick Markakis

Justin Upton

Felix Hernandez

Chad Billingsley

They Draft: Jermaine Dye

They could take Furcal or Soria, but I think they take a veteran hitter here with power.  Dye is getting older but he has been pretty consistent the past four years, despite a fluctuating batting average.  Dye should come close to hitting 30 HR again with 100 RBI, so I think he gets picked here.

Pick 10

The Balls

Ryan Howard

Hanley Ramirez

Adrian Gonzalez

Carlos Quentin

Shane Victorino

Jake Peavy

Joe Nathan

They Draft: James Shields

I don’t think Shields can fall any further than here.  Shields is probably the best player available, though I think The Balls could use another hitter, but they’d have to reach for Aubrey Huff or Garrett Atkins.  They don’t need another closer, so I think they add pitching depth and wait for another hitter next round.

Pick 11

Adrian’s Revenge

Brian McCann

Mark Teixiera

Ryan Zimmerman

Carlos Lee

Hunter Pence

Chris B. Young

Ervin Santana

I Draft: Rafael Furcal

This is my pick, and I take the best offensive player available.

Pick 12

Macafeys

Geovany Soto

Derrek Lee

David Wright

Jimmy Rollins

BJ Upton

Alex Rios

Roy Halladay

They Draft: Joakim Soria or Josh Beckett

The Macafeys have two picks in a row, so they can do pretty much whatever they want here.  I think they take a pitcher, and it will probably be Soria or Beckett, though Francisco Rodriguez or Zack Greinke is also available.

Let me know what you think by leaving a comment.  We’ll see how closely the real draft follows this one next week.

9 comments:

Nate said...

This is a sweet post - but I don't see myself taking Dye...

Ben Westrup said...

Yeah, you're usually pretty consistent about taking younger players. Would you go for a closer or Furcal with this pick?

Order of the Phoenix said...

If i take a pitcher im going younger than Oswalt, i want a keeper with 3rd pick.

Ben Westrup said...

I think I misjudged Chris Davis's value in our league. I don't think he slips past the third pick.

Jonathan B said...

impossible - pujols and lidge can never coexist on the same team!

Clint said...

You may be correct in that assumption, Ben.

Nate said...

Yeah I would consider taking Furcal if he does get to me (but i doubt he does).

John Rogstad said...

Escobar is better than Furcal, draft him.

Anonymous said...

Ouch, a closer run for our first round. never. Im holding my breath that I dont miss that draft and someone actually drafts me beckett and soria, this would bore me to a quick fantasy end. I think this post is just draft strategy by the writer.