Thursday, March 12, 2009

Draft Analysis - Part 3

Allow me to present our third and final installment of my analysis of our league’s recent draft.  With just six rounds left, I will be dispensing with the best and worst picks for each round, because at this point in the draft most teams are filling out their roster positions and you really can’t go very wrong no matter who you pick once we get into the end rounds.  You can easily figure out which players I like or don’t like from commentary.

Round Thirteen

1. Chris Dickerson      Dissect Yourself

2. Mike Cameron        Orc Mischief

3. Manny Parra            Order of the Phoenix

4. John Maine              Butt Admirals

5. John Smoltz            Summer Fox

6. Coco Crisp              Tossers

7. Elijah Dukes            Screaming Lemurs

8. Jorge Posada           The $5 Footlongs

9. Troy Percival           Naterade

10. Jair Jurrjens           The Balls

11. Andy Sonnanstine Adrian's Revenge

12. Mike Jacobs          Macafey

Comments:  This was a tough round for me.  I had been planning on getting either Parra or Jurrjens this round, and then get Mike Jacobs with my next pick, but it all went wrong.  Brubaker took Jurrjens and I got pissed off and took Sonnanstine, not realizing that Tim would take Jacobs.  I ended up taking Carlos Guillen with my next pick.  I was not happy with that turn of events.  I’m not sure about Chris Dickerson; I haven’t really read anything that makes me think he’ll be a .300/20/20 guy this year.  Maybe he’ll be good, but he might not be better than Mike Cameron, who has been an underrated 20/20 player for most of the past five years.  He missed the first month of the season due to a suspension, but he still hit 25 HR and stole 17 bases.  I think he’ll come close to 20/20 again this year, though his batting average does leave something to be desired.  I also like Elijah Dukes in this round as a possible 20/20 candidate; he should get it if he can stay healthy on the field and out of trouble off it.  I don’t like Jorge Posada for this year, not when other catching options are available such as Kelly Shoppach (21 HR in 352 AB last year), Ramon Hernandez (15 HR last year) or AJ Pierzynski (13 HR, .281 BA).  I’m surprised no one took a chance on one of the Rangers’ catching prospects.  I’m beginning to think that Rogstad has a thing for pitchers over 40.

Round Fourteen

1. Adam Lind             Macafey

2. Carlos Guillen         Adrian's Revenge

3. Kaz Matsui              The Balls

4. Troy Glaus             Naterade

5. Hideki Matsui         The $5 Footlongs

6. Travis Snider           Screaming Lemurs

7. Jesse Litsch             Tossers

8. Jack Cust                 Summer Fox

9. Jeremy Hermida      Butt Admirals

10. Hank Blalock        Order of the Phoenix

11. Joe Saunders         Orc Mischief

12. Jason Motte           Dissect Yourself

Comments: I would have been happy to take Lind to fill my UT spot, but Tim took him and now I’m stuck with Carlos Guillen.  At least he should hit for average and provide Runs and RBI.  I’ve been reading a lot about how Lind is going to be better than Snider this year, and I think I agree.  Lind was once a hyped hitting prospect a couple of seasons ago, and though he didn’t pan out right away, he’s now had some seasoning at the major league level and could be ready to take the next step forward.  Snider is young, and he could just as easily struggle as Lind once did.  There were quite a few players taken this round that could put up interesting numbers if they can get 450-500 at bats this season.  I think Blalock does it, but not Glaus or Matsui.  Saunders and Litsch seem like pretty interchangeable pitchers; neither misses many bats and they’re both usually done by the seventh inning.  I like Litsch better since he didn’t issue as many free passes last year as Saunders did, and Saunders was recently experiencing tightness in his shoulder.  Most pitchers in these rounds are replaceable. 

Round Fifteen

1. Dan Wheeler           Dissect Yourself

2. Brandon Lyon         Orc Mischief

3. Alexi Casilla            Order of the Phoenix

4. Clint Barmes           Butt Admirals

5. Colby Rasmus         Summer Fox

6. JJ Putz                     Tossers

7. Edgar Renteria        Screaming Lemurs

8. Oliver Perez            The $5 Footlongs

9. Eric Byrnes             Naterade

10. Justin Duchscherer The Balls

11. Kevin Gregg         Adrian's Revenge

12. Manuel Corpas      Macafey

Comments: Gregg is still in contention with Marmol for the Cubs’ closer role, and he could win the role based on his previous closing experience and the fact that Marmol is a much more versatile reliever.  This could be a great pick for me if he wins the role and gets 30 saves.  Brandon Lyon is another reliever looking to win the closer role, and ESPN has him at the top of the Tigers’ closer depth chart.  I think he’ll be the closer for the Tigers and this will be a good pick for Clint.  Wheeler should give Micah a few save opportunities when Percival misses games, which he will.  Brubaker took Duchscherer in the right round; this is a risky pick because of the threat of injury to Duchscherer, but he’s talented and could provide solid value here.  Tim could get some saves from Corpas, but everything I’ve read seems to indicate that the Rockies will have Huston Street close in order to maximize his trade value.  I think Corpas will get some saves this year.  Byrnes was great two years ago, but he missed most of last year with injury and he has yet to play in spring training.  He could provide some steals if he gets playing time but he’ll be fighting with Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy for playing time in the outfield.  Naterade has already dropped him for Randy Winn, which I think is a good move.  Rogstad was able to draft Rasmus again, and hopefully he’ll be able to play him sometime this year.

Round Sixteen

1. Felipe Lopez           Macafey

2. Jeremy Guthrie        Adrian's Revenge

3. Kevin Kouzmanoff The Balls

4. Brandon Wood       Naterade

5. Mike Pelfrey           The $5 Footlongs

6. Kenshin Kawakami Screaming Lemurs

7. Jason Giambi           Tossers

8. Hideki Okajima       Summer Fox

9. Ryan Garko             Butt Admirals

10. Ben Sheets            Order of the Phoenix

11. Denard Span         Orc Mischief

12. Ubaldo Jimenez    Dissect Yourself

Comments: I’m a fan of Kouzmanoff for this round; he’ll give you 20 HR and a serviceable batting average.  He’s a good guy to fill in your UT spot.  Same with Jason Giambi, who I think will be good for 25 HR.  I would rather have Jimenez over Sheets, especially since Sheets will make 15 starts at the most this season.  Sheets will lose value if he signs with a team like Texas, which seems likely since that’s where he’s been rehabbing.  Jimenez was wild last year, but he strikes out a lot of guys and he could improve in his second full year in the league.  Will Kawakami be more like Hiroki Kuroda or Kaz Ishii?  This is a good upside pick.  It’s good to take risks on pitchers in these rounds since they can be replaced fairly easily.  Brandon Wood could be a good pick, and if he gets enough at bats I think 20 HR is easily possible, though his batting average will hurt you.  Span is a good speculative pick for his ability to steal bases, but how many steals he gets will depend on how playing time shakes out in that crowded outfield. 

Round Seventeen

1. Gaby Sanchez         Dissect Yourself

2. Juan Rivera             Orc Mischief

3. Brad Penny            Order of the Phoenix

4. Noah Lowry            Butt Admirals

5. Casey Blake            Summer Fox

6. Freddy Sanchez      Tossers

7. Jonathan Sanchez    Screaming Lemurs

8. David DeJesus        The $5 Footlongs

9. Rafael Soriano        Naterade

10. Phil Hughes           The Balls

11. Paul Maholm         Adrian's Revenge

12. Matt Gamel           Macafey

Comments: Gaby Sanchez appears to be the favorite to win the Marlins’ first base job, and I’m interested to see what he’ll do based on the numbers he had in Double A last year.  David DeJesus can be boring, but he won’t hurt you anywhere.  Matt Gamel has had a very good minor league career, but his defense might keep him from being a regular at third.  He hasn’t played yet in spring training, but his bat is one to stash away because at some point the Brewers will tire of Bill Hall and Mike Lamb.  I don’t think Phil Hughes starts for the Yankees this year unless someone gets injured, and Brubaker has already dropped him.  I think Jonathan Sanchez is a good pick, because of his elite strikeout ability when healthy.  Freddy Sanchez hit .344 two years ago, but he’s been in decline since then.  He doesn’t steal bases or hit for much power, but he’s a decent player to stash on your bench in case he gets hot.  Brad Penny has yet to pitch in spring training due to shoulder issues, and I don’t think he’ll be much more than a matchups guy this year.  Juan Rivera has been overlooked in recent years due to injury, but he can hit when healthy and it’s assumed that the Angels will give him at bats because of the three-year contract they signed him to. 

Round Eighteen

1. Nick Swisher           Macafey

2. Josh Fields              Adrian's Revenge

3. Dioner Navarro       The Balls

4. Jerry Owens            Naterade

5. Kosuke Fukudome  The $5 Footlongs

6. Grant Balfour          Screaming Lemurs

7. Cody Ross              Tossers

8. David Murphy        Summer Fox

9. Takashi Saito           Butt Admirals

10. Josh Anderson      Order of the Phoenix

11. Andruw Jones       Orc Mischief

12. Wandy Rodriguez Dissect Yourself

Comments: It’s the last round, and owners are filling out bench spots by speculating on steals, playing time, power and upside.  Most of these players will not finish the year on the same team, and in fact a few have already been dropped.  Navarro is a serviceable catcher, but Brubaker dropped him for Kelly Shoppach, a move with which I agree.  I needed more power on my team, and I was happy to get Josh Fields since he should get most of the playing time at third base for the White Sox, and he has the upside to hit 25 HR.  Andruw Jones could pull a Sammy Sosa for the Rangers, but I don’t think he’ll be anything more than a part-time player for them.  Josh Anderson looks like the front-runner for the Braves centerfield spot, and he could be a good source for steals and batting average.  Same with Jerry Owens if he can get playing time.  Cody Ross has decent power and could hit 20 HR this year.  Not a bad player to have on your bench.  How much value David Murphy has this year will depend on how much playing time he gets, but he’s a good speculative bench fodder pick.  I think Wandy Rodriguez will have a lot of value because of his strikeout ability, especially as a matchups guy.

Well, there you have it, my analysis of our 2009 league draft.  Thanks for the comments and I hope to be back next week with some more comments and speculation.


Nate said...

when do we get power rankings

Ben Westrup said...

I'd like to do a power ranking closer to opening day. Power rankings can often be time consuming, so I may only do them sporadically or with only basic thoughts on each team.

Ben Westrup said...

One thing I am trying to figure out is what to right next. What kind of posts would you guys prefer that I write about our league?

jon said...

maybe some historical notes from previous years... maybe funny or odd occurances, or success of people's different strategies.