Keepers Part II

We continue our look at keepers for each team in my Head to Head league, with the consolation championship runner-up The Balls. John's team has a balanced mix of top pitching and top hitting, with some solid options to fill out the rest of his picks with. Let's dive in.

THE BALLS

Hitters:
Moisés Alou (NYM - OF)
Garrett Atkins (Col - 1B,3B)
Milton Bradley (SD - OF)
Robinson Canó (NYY - 2B)
Michael Cuddyer (Min - 1B,OF)
Rajai Davis (SF - OF)
Cliff Floyd (ChC - OF)
Adrián González (SD - 1B)
Khalil Greene (SD - SS)
José Guillén (Sea - OF)
Xavier Nady (Pit - 1B,OF)
Carlos Peña (TB - 1B)
Mike Piazza (Oak - C)
Albert Pujols (StL - 1B)
Hanley Ramírez (Fla - SS)

Pitchers:
Erik Bedard (Bal - SP)
Jeremy Bonderman (Det - SP)
Mark Buehrle (CWS - SP)
Matt Cain (SF - SP)
Roger Clemens (NYY - SP)
Phil Hughes (NYY - SP)
Scott Kazmir (TB - SP)
Ted Lilly (ChC - SP)
Jake Peavy (SD - SP)
Oliver Pérez (NYM - SP)
Chris Young (SD - SP)


1. Albert Pujols
A no-brainer choice, Pujols was the consensus number one draft pick amongst almost everyone last year; despite a 2007 season that was below his standards, Pujols still placed in the top ten for OPS. His power numbers were lacking his normal "oomph", but his batting average was within his normal levels. This is the type of player you build your team around for the next six or seven years.

2. Hanley Ramirez
Another no-brainer, the former NL Rookie of the Year raised his numbers in almost every offensive categories in his second year. Arguably the best hitter at his position, Ramirez is also a major threat on basepaths, stealing 102 bases in 312 games. Only 23, Ramirez could be a dominant fantasy force at his position for the next decade. Even if concerns about his defense force him to the outfield in a few years, he should still be a great asset for any fantasy team.

3. Jake Peavy
One of the more talented pitchers in the league just keeps getting better. Peavy set career highs in wins, strikeouts, and batting average against last year, placing in the top three in each category, including ERA. Peavy has the talent to be the top starting pitcher every year, and while he plays in a great pitcher's park, he's just as good on the road. I don't usually keep pitchers, but if you have one the best pitchers in the National League in his prime, you have to hold on to him.

4. Erik Bedard
Before he was shutdown by the Orioles with a strained oblique muscle, Bedard was making his case to be considered one of the top pitchers in the AL. He compiled 221 strikeouts in 182 innings to go along with a 3.17 ERA, despite the fact that he plays in a tough park for pitchers. The strained oblique doesn't appear to be serious, as Bedard could have been activated a few days before the end of the season, but the Orioles chose to end his season early. Bedard has great talent, and could lead the AL in most of the major pitching categories in 2008.

5. Robinson Cano
Cano's age and the position he plays make him a solid keeper for 2008. He hit his way into the top five for batting average and slugging percentage among all second basemen, and he was the only second baseman besides Chase Utley to make it to the top five for both. The only thing Cano lacks is speed, but he is surrounded by a great offense, and his youth means he could possibly hit as many as 25 homeruns a year in his prime.

6. Garrett Atkins
Okay, here's where it gets tough, as John's team has a few possible options for these last two spots, and they all happen to play a corner infield position. Since John already has Pujols at first base, I'm going to pick Atkins to fill the third base spot. Atkins plays a shallower position, and despite having an OPS lower than Carlos Pena, his mark of .853 was good enough for seventh among all third basemen. Atkins has shown the ability to hit for average and power. He's definitely a product of Coors Field as shown by his .254 average and .446 slugging percentage on the road, but unless the Rockies trade him away to make room for Ian Stewart, he'll continue to have the benefits of his home field. For more of my thoughts on Atkins vs. Pena, see here.

7. Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzalez or Pena, it's basically comes down to your fantasy philosophy. Pena offers more pure power, aided by the fact that he plays in a park much more conducive to hitting, while Gonzalez has shown himself to be a more well-rounded hitter. Basically it comes down to my belief that Pena will not be able hit .280 with 45-plus homeruns in 2008. I think his batting average will regress closer to his career average of .252. Gonzalez can flat out mash, just look at his slugging percentage of .500 or better over the past two years, which he was able to do even though he has to play half his games at cavernous Petco Park. Even when he's not hitting homeruns, Gonzalez can still help you with his batting average.

The Also-Rans
Carlos Pena was hard to keep off this list, but I just don't see him sustaining that batting average. It's more likely that he'll either strikeout, walk, or hit a homerun, two of which are not bad outcomes, but it's unlikely that he'll help your team any other way. At least Gonzalez will be able to drive in runs without relying on hitting homeruns. I know John has Milton Bradley in high regard for what he was able to do for the Padres while healthy, but he'll miss a large portion of the season to his injury suffered bizarrely last year at the hands of Bud Black. Khalil Greene has a lot of pop for a middle infielder, but that's about it; he doesn't have more overall value than Cano, Atkins, or Bedard. Jose Guillen has a lot of talent; keep an eye on where he signs next year as his home park could enhance his value, but otherwise he's still only a fringe keeper.

All in all, this is a good group of keepers, with some great studs both at the plate and on the mound. Next time I'll be back to look at Ted's Gunny Jetloves.

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Keepers, Keepers, Here Come the Keepers

With the offseason in full-swing, and everyone all a-twitter with thoughts of A-Rod and the rest of the free-agents, there will be lots to discuss in the upcoming weeks. I'll be commenting on the notable transactions and their impact to the fantasy world, but while I have some free time, I'll be using this space to discuss who I think each manager in my fantasy league should keep for next year. Now, unless the Dodgers grossly over pay for Miguel Cabrera by giving up Matt Kemp, Andy Laroche, Clayton Kershaw, and Chad Billingsley, without also getting Dontrelle Willis or Dan Uggla in return, I will be posting these picks every couple of days. If the aforemention scenario does occur, I'll probably be driving out to take a fat dump on Ned Colletti's lawn. Let's get on with the picks.

Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. (For those who are unfamiliar with the strategy, streaming is the practice of picking up and starting as many pitchers as you can each day in order to win in the strikeouts and wins categories. This strategy requires good closers to win the saves category, and to offset the often poor ERA and WHIP totals that result.)

I'll be going through each team by draft order for next season. The first is Dissect Yourself, managed by Micah. He holds the first pick by virtue of being the consolation bracket champion.
Here is his roster, followed by my choices and comments:

Hitters
Josh Barfield (Cle - 2B)
Carlos Delgado (NYM - 1B)
Jason Giambi (NYY - 1B)
Todd Helton (Col - 1B)
Matt Holliday (Col - OF)
Raúl Ibañez (Sea - OF)
Austin Kearns (Was - OF)
Juan Pierre (LAD - OF)
Iván Rodríguez (Det - C,1B)
Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF)
Mark Teahen (KC - 1B,3B,OF)
Troy Tulowitzki (Col - SS)
Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B)

Pitchers
Brian Fuentes (Col - RP)
Jon Garland (CWS - SP)
Orlando Hernández (NYM - SP)
Braden Looper (StL - SP,RP)
Mike Mussina (NYY - SP)
Andy Pettitte (NYY - SP)
J.J. Putz (Sea - RP)
C.C. Sabathia (Cle - SP)
Ben Sheets (Mil - SP)
Javier Vázquez (CWS - SP)
Tim Wakefield (Bos - SP)
Dontrelle Willis (Fla - SP)

My Choices:

1. Matt Holliday
Holliday's an easy choice; the MVP candidate set career highs this past season in almost every meaningful offensive category. He'll be 28 when the season starts, right in the middle of his prime. His numbers are helped by playing half his games at Coors, but he's no slouch on the road, slugging .485 and batting .301. He's a borderline first-rounder, and should continue to be a highly productive player for the next few years.

2. Alfonso Soriano
Despite not rivaling last year's numbers, Soriano had another quality season, matching his career high in slugging percentage and almost equaling his career mark in batting average. He hit more than thirty home runs for the fifth time in his career, and his offensive numbers would have been even better if he hadn't missed most of August with an injured right hamstring. Hampered by the injury, he attempted less than thirty stolen bases for only the second time in his career. He's been a 30/30 threat throughout his career and should still have a few highly productive seasons left.

3. Juan Pierre
Juan Pierre may be overrated as a baseball player, but for fantasy owners looking for stolen bases, he's just right. Having Pierre on his team gives Micah a strong competitive edge in the stolen bases category; add in Soriano, and Micah could possibly have one hundred stolen bases between two players. Because of his poor on-base percentage, Pierre might find it harder to steal 50 plus bases as his legs get older, but he does provide a solid batting batting average, which is made more valuable to fantasy owners because of his high number of at bats. An interesting stat: Pierre has more walks than strikeouts in his career. Pierre rounds out a solid outfield for Micah.

4. Troy Tulowitzki
Tulowitzki is another solid keeper; despite his awful stats away from Coors, he is young enough to improve greatly on those numbers. The Rookie of the Year runner-up needs to cut down on his strikeouts, but he has the talent to hit 30 homeruns a year with a solid average. How he does next year without the anonymity of being a rookie will tell a lot about his abilities as a major leaguer.

5. Dan Uggla
Uggla was a top ten second baseman last year, and he could be top five if he can bring his batting average back up to his rookie mark of .282. Even though his batting average fell thirty points from last year, he increased his walk total by twenty. He offers a lot of pop for his position, leading all second basemen in homeruns despite playing in a park not conducive to them. Uggla was a solid infielder, and if he improves on last year's numbers, Micah will have a great middle infield.

6. C.C. Sabathia
Normally I don't advocate keeping pitchers, preferring to find them through the draft and off the waiver wire, but there aren't too many other viable options on Micah's team, and Sabathia was very good last year, rating behind only Jake Peavy on ESPN's player rater. My only concern is the high number of innings he pitched last season, thirty-one more than his career high (not counting 15.1 playoff innings in which he got shelled.) Sabathia could be poised for a letdown next season, but he has improved in strikeouts, walks and ERA over the last four years, showing his maturation into an elite pitcher.

7. J.J. Putz
While I normally don't advocate keeping starting pitchers, I almost never keep closers. Saves is a very volatile category, as is the closer position; over the past three seasons, only four closers have placed in the top ten for saves more than twice, only two have placed in the top five more than once. There are suprises at the top of the saves list each year, and this year was no exception with Jose Valverde and Joe Borowski coming in first and second with more than 45 saves each. Putz had his second season of 35 or more saves, and he was ranked the number one closer on ESPN's player rater. His strikeout rate was down compared to last year, but so was his Batting Average Against, with a ridiculous .153. He is a solid choice for next year.

The Also-Rans

There were a few players who could be considered as keepers for next year, but I just couldn't justify leaving anyone of this least for these guys. Jason Giambi suffered through injuries all last year, resulting in the second-worst OPS of his career. He most likely won't have first-base eligibility next year, relegating him to the Utility spot. At thirty-six his best years appear to be behind him. Carlos Delgado is another aging All-Star that just missed this list; he couldn't crack the top fifteen first basemen on the player rater and it's not that hard to find players at his position who hit 20-25 homeruns with better batting averages. He's not done yet, so keep an eye on him in the draft. Mark Teahen was a touted third base prospect, but he failed to build on last year's power numbers. With Alex Gordon vying for playing time, Teahen will only be OF eligible in 2008, and even repeats his production from 2006, it's hard to justify keeping a .285/20HR hitting outfielder over any of the guys on this list.

So, those are my picks for who Micah should keep. He definitely has a solid and balanced offense, and a good foundation for his pitching staff. He should be very competitive in 2008.

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Hey Look Everybody, It's Joe Torre!

Joe Torre is coming.

L.A.'s response is cautious optimism, if not downright just cautious.

ESPN's response is a bit more pessimistic, and almost virulent.

While I don't share ESPN's negative views, which had the not so subtle air of a knee jerk reaction to the hype surrounding Torre, I don't believe that Torre will lead the Dodgers to the Promised Land unless Frank McCourt and Ned Coletti can provide him with the talent needed to win.

The Dodgers need to strengthen their rotation and they need a power hitter, which gives them something in common with almost every team in the league. They have possible solutions to their rotation needs, but these solutions need to stay healthy, need time, or need a miracle. The Dodgers have talent, but it is mostly raw, and in some cases, overdone; Torre alone will not be able to drag them into the postseason .

Still, I want to leave you with my unwavering belief about the Joe Torre hire: This is a good thing for Dodger baseball. This makes us relevant. There is an excitement around this season that hasn't been present in a long time. Dodger fans have something to look forward to, the credibility of a Name, which is something that's been lacking since Gary Sheffield was traded.

Joe Torre won't get blood from a stone, but this team will listen to him, and hopefully they will mature under him, and when Torre leaves, hopefully they will be ready to follow his handpicked successor.

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Better Keeper: Carlos Pena or Garrett Atkins

I was talking to John Brubaker the other day, and the topic turned towards our keepers. Both of us are trying to decide on who our seven keepers will be for our twelve team 5x5 category league. John's dilemma was deciding whether Carlos Pena's upside in power was enough to make him more attractive as a keeper than Garrett Atkins.

Let's take a look the pros and cons to both players.

Garret Atkins
Pros: He hits for average, maintaining a .306 batting average over his three full seasons in the majors. He has good lefty/righty splits, and he has a solid walk rate. He's fairly young and could improve on his power. He plays at a great hitter's park.
Cons: His numbers are much poorer away from Coors. His OPS on the road is .163 less than at home, and his batting average is .095 worse when he's away. His unappealing away stats could leave him susceptible to cold streaks. He hasn't shown that he can be a consistent power hitter.

Carlos Pena
Pros: He hit for a ton of power, hitting 46 home runs to go with a .627 slugging percentage, which was second only to Alex Rodriguez. He can get on base through walks, with the fifth best walk rate in the league. His lefty/righty and home/away splits are bearable.
Cons: He's two years older than Atkins, and he's already been given up on by four teams. Even though he walks a lot, he strikes out a lot as well, enough for tenth most in the league. His high strikeout totals might not affect his power production, but they could easily affect his batting average. His .282 average might be a fluke, as it's thirty points above his career average. According to ESPN's Inside Edge, Pena has more holes at the plate than Atkins.

Thoughts
Atkins might have more value than Pena next year purely because of his age, which allows him a bit more upside than Pena. Atkins is a safer risk than Pena, as it is much more likely that Pena fails to repeat his 2007 numbers in 2008 than it is for Atkins. In 2007, third base was a less productive source for power than first; only four third basemen hit 30 or more home runs compared to nine first basemen. Atkins does have the ability to hit thirty home runs, and he has already proven that he can hit for average. Pena has less of a track record than Atkins, so it's hard to predict what he might do next year.

Conclusion
This is one of those decisions could very well end up leaving you kicking yourself in July, but I think Atkins' age, track record, and position scarcity makes him a better keeper pick than Pena. It seems very unlikely that Pena will come close to replicating last year's numbers, and he could end just a poor man's Paul Konerko, which isn't bad value, but it doesn't necessarily make him keeper worthy. Also, since John has Adrian Gonzalez on his roster as well, Pena might be expendable. A close edge to Garrett Atkins.

Questions/Thoughts/Pithy Sayings?

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Centerfielders Revisited

Before I finish up my look at the bottom half of our list of National League centerfielders, I'd like to take a moment to congratulate Nate (Naterade) Swanson on winning our Yahoo fantasy league's 2007 championship. Nate finished second in the regular season standings, and eventually beat Tim Ledoux's Macafeys in a final between the top two teams of the regular season. Nate's lineup was not the strongest, but he was always consistent, only losing by more than one category twice over the season's course. My hat is off to you, Naterade.

Here we are back to the list. The first part can be found here.

Alfredo Amezaga's main value to the Florida Marlins is his defense. He has a strong range factor and a good zone rating, and he while he does provide some speed on the basepaths -- he has 33 stolen bases over the last two seasons -- his success rate is only 63%. (The league average was 74%.) Amezaga posted a career best .682 OPS this year, but he profiles best as a defensive utilityman. The Marlins would rather have started Alejandro De Aza in centerfield this year, but injuries allowed Amezaga to get the majority of playing time.

Mike Cameron's batting average and slugging percentage were well below last year's marks, but he had almost as many home runs and doubles. Both his range factor and his zone rating were also down from last year. Cameron's batting average is the only major detraction to his fantasy value; he needs to hit .260 or better and cut down on his strikeouts in order to be more than a 4th outfielder. An increase in plate selectivity, coupled with his talent for power and speed, would make Cameron a great value for next season.

Bill Hall was a major disappointment to many fantasy owners this year, including myself. Yahoo rated him 93rd among all players at the beginning of the season, and somehow he managed to end up 706th. I didn't expect him to hit 35 homers again this year, but 25 seemed manageable, which is eleven more than he ended up hitting. Hall's slugging percentage was 42 points below his career average, and his four stolen bases were the least he's ever had in a full season. Primarily an infielder, Hall was moved to centerfield this year to make room for Rickie Weeks. His defense has been unremarkable at best, and it is unclear what the Brewers plan to do with him, as he lost time down the stretch to Corey Hart. Hall's value for next year depends on his playing time and his ability to rebound at the plate.

The Washington Nationals started a variety of players at centerfield, but Nook Logan received the majority of the starts there. Logan has little power and a poor on-base percentage, but he is fast, stealing 23 bases in 118 games. Logan is very good defensively, but unless he improves his ability to reach base, he has little value as a starter. The Nationals acquired Wily Mo Pena near the trading deadline, and it seems they would like to start him in right next year and move Austin Kearns to center. Logan should only be on fantasy radars if it appears the Nationals will be giving him playing time, and only those looking for stolen bases shoud be interested.

Baseball America ranked Nate McLouth the Pirates' 10th best prospect in 2005, citing his contact ability and speed as positives. McLouth improved on his offensive numbers from last year, with very large increases in slugging and on-base percentages. He was an underrated source for stolen bases this year, stealing 22 out of 23 attempts. If he gets a full season of playing time, McLouth could be considered a sleeper candidate for a 20 homerun/20 stolen base season in the near future. That is a large if, as the Pirates also gave a lot of playing time in centerfield to Chris Duffy and Nyjer Morgan this year. McLouth is still relatively young, so he is definitely one to watch in larger leagues.

Willy Taveras missed significant portions of August and September due to a strained right groin, ruining his chances at his first 40 stolen base season. He set career highs in batting average, and on-base and slugging percentages. Injuries and poor marks on defense keep him from being higher on this list. Good thing fantasy doesn't count defense; a healthy Taveras is definitely one to watch for next year.

Injuries were also a big factor for the Cardinals' Jim Edmonds, who spent the offseason recovering from toe and shoulder surgeries. Edmonds only started 99 games in center due to injuries, and his production was down for the second year in a row. With his defensive and offensive production slipping, Edmonds stellar career appears close to being over. Do not draft Edmonds next year.

Dave Roberts had his fifth season of 30 stolen bases or more, despite platooning with Rajai Davis for part of the season, so Roberts still has value despite being on the downside of his career. His OPS was his lowest in five years. Given the right opportunity, Roberts is a good source of stolen bases, but it might not be with the Giants as they appear ready to give Rajai Davis, whom they acquired from Pirates this year, a shot at the starting centerfield job. With the Barry Bonds era over in San Francisco, the Giants will probably try to go younger, and Roberts will most likely not fit in their plans.

Well, that's the list. I started this list back on August 20th, with more than a month left in the season to play, so this authority of this list is definitely debateable. Players have done their best and worst to move up and down, and this list is far from definitive. So please, let me know where I got it wrong, or if you're so disposed, where I got it right.

Next thing I'll probably write about will be a look back at my Yahoo fantasy league, and we'll discuss why my inability to stick with a focused strategy enabled me to run my team into the losers' bracket for the second year in a row.

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This is disconcerting.

Not really pertinent to fantasy baseball, but as a Dodger fan, this article by LA Times columnist T.J. Simers about their younger players has me concerned. He refers to Matt Kemp as talented but "also a jerk in the making and one of those gifted athletes who doesn't necessarily have to work hard to get by." He goes on to highlight the questionable attitudes of James Loney and Andy LaRoche, and states that "they have no respect for players like Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez and Nomar Garciaparra, who are on their way out".
This is definitely troubling to hear, as is Simers' comment that manager Grady Little has lost the clubhouse. This season was marred by injuries to the rotation, and a disappointment overall. It is the development of the Dodgers' rookies that have kept the season exciting. If they turn out to be less like Russell Martin and more like headcase Raul Mondesi, a losing season will be less easier to stomach.

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I suppose I should elaborate . . .

So, the title of this blog is "I Hate Matt Berry", which may have caused two small but important questions to wander up through your conciousness and into the forefront of your mind: Who is Matt Berry? and Why does Ben hate him? First things first.

Matt Berry, a.k.a. The Talented Mr. Roto, is a prominent fantasy sports blogger and is ESPN's Senior Director of Fantasy. You can read his lengthy bio here at his fantasy sport site, talentedmrroto.com. Go ahead and read it, I can wait.

Okay, so now that we've established who Matt Berry is, why do I hate him?

Well, I guess to be perfectly honest, I don't really hate Matt Berry. It's more of an extreme personal dislike for the way he writes. His blog content at ESPN.com (which appears to have expired recently, according to his August 9th entry) is split between fantasy analysis and personal anecdotes. Which is fine, after all, this is the Internet, where people can blog about whatever they want, no matter how inane or irrelevant.

But when I go to ESPN for expert fantasy baseball analysis, I don't want to spend half my time wading through blogs and mailbags about problems with dating or thoughts on cool shows. I want facts and analysis and observations that I don't feel like I could come up with myself. I guess that's my main problem with Berry; I feel like he wastes my time. I hate it when he spends his time in the online chats responding to questions and comments that have nothing to do with fantasy. Take this chat here. Just scrolling through it, we can see recurring questions and comments about Jessica Alba, Mr. Belvedere, Hulk Hogan, Matt Berry's nickname. These things do not interest me when I'm trying to find out which players are going to have great second halves or which pitchers are about to take a nosedive. But apparently they interest Berry enough for him to spend a good portion of the chat talking about them, despite the fact that he is supposed to be ESPN's director of fantasy.

(Okay, I'm feeling like things are going to get a little graphic in a second. Skip on ahead a paragraph or two, as things are probably going to start making less sense and start being more vulgar and libelous.)

These chats are Berry's links to the masses, these slimy sycophants from which he gets his validation and adulation. They come to these forums to get on their knees and fellate the fabled Berry cock. Rows upon rows of people all there to service their master. And Matt Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, sits upon his throne, smiling beatifically upon his people, as he digitally offers them a collective fist-bump. Berry pisses smug superiority and shits delusions of grandeur. He's a boy who never grew up, and these chatrooms and websites filled with attention seeking brown-nosers and ass-lickers are his playground. They crawl to him, yearning to wipe his ass, and, oh, does he indulge them.

(That got kind of weird.)

(Sorry about that.)

(Okay I think I'm starting to come out out of it. Just bear with me.)

Berry's chats and blogs come off as an exhibition in glad-handing popularity. Chatters tell him how awesome he is, and he responds by answering their questions. His chats foster an environment where if you profess to like the things he does and laugh at his jokes, he will reward you with his wisdom.

If Berry would just focus on being a fantasy expert, and stop trying to be Bill Simmons, his writing would definitely be more palatable. As it is, I will continue to skip his posts, and focus my attentions on the words of Eric Karabell, Tristan Cockcroft, and Ron Shandler. I can always count on them for the straight shit.

So, anyways, that's why the title of this blog. Don't worry, while I may have to let off some steam from time to time about Mr. Berry, most of my posts won't be about him. And don't let me influence your opinion about him, go find out for yourself what you think. Let me know if I'm wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

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