The Holiday Blog Dump of 2007

So it's been awhile since my last post; I've found it hard to find the time to sit down and write anything with all of the holiday preparations to be done this month. I also had strep throat this month, which made me not want to do anything for about a week. Anyways, let's see how much I can get done today. I've a feeling that there won't be too much fantasy analysis, but bear with me. Also, I'm planning on doing the next part of my keeper series sometime in the next week, so keep checking. Here we go.

Let's see, what to talk about. We had a blockbuster trade, a few minor moves, one big-name pitcher that stayed put (for now), a falling out between A-Rod and his agent, anything else? That's about it for big news this month, right? Nothing else except . . .

Oh yeah, that.

Even though I’d rather not, I feel somewhat compelled to discuss it. Of course by “it”, I’m referring to the news story that won’t go away, the Mitchell Report.

The Mitchell Report has released the names of 80 or more baseball players connected or implicated in the use of performance enhancing drugs (or PEDs as all the cool kids are calling them.) Most of them are minor, such as F.P. Santangelo and Glenallen Hill, but there are some All-Stars, including future Hall-of-Famer Roger Clemens. A lot of the players are implicated in “he said, she said” statements by trainer Brian McNamee and steroid supplier Kirk Radomski, but not all accusations have been supported with corroborating evidence. Here’s a convenient list of players named in the report and why.

What do I feel about the report’s findings? What was my first reaction?

Nothing. It didn’t bother me one bit.

It didn’t bother me to find out that Clemens may have injected Winstrol into his buttocks with the help of trainer McNamee.

It doesn’t bother me that former and current stars like Mo Vaughn, Kevin Brown, Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi, Troy Glaus, and Gary Sheffield may have used or are suspected of having used performance enhancing drugs. To be honest, you could accuse anyone from the last twenty years and it wouldn’t surprise me. (Though for some reason I think I’d be horrified to know if Shawn Green used steroids. Just can’t imagine him doing it.)

It doesn’t bother me that former Dodgers catcher and fan-favorite Paul LoDuca may have introduced Dodgers players such as Eric Gagne, Kevin Brown, Todd Hundley, Matt Herges and others to Radomski, and helped them order supplies of HGH.

It doesn’t bother me that the 80 odd names supplied in this report are definitely just the tip of the iceberg for a sport that has looked the other way for almost two decades.

This won’t affect how I feel about the players named. LoDuca is still the scrappy team leader I remember. Gagne will still be “Game Over” to me. Clemens is still a great pitcher who deserves to go to the Hall of Fame. This does not change how I view baseball for the last two decades. Nor should it change anything for anyone else. And it won’t. Baseball will survive, and the game will move on.

This is not to say that I condone the use of steroids. I don’t, and I never will. I hope that this leads to stringent testing rules and I look forward to the day when I can (almost) confidently state that game is steroid-free. As far as the history and sanctity of the game, I will not look at the stats of the so-called Steroid Era as cheap or sullied. I will take into account the environment of the game, as I do when examining the pitching dominated years of the sixties and seventies, or the deadball era of the early 1900s. I will take to the records of the nineties with a grain of salt, as I do with Cy Young’s 511 career wins. They are records set in different times, in different environments. The environment of the Steroid Era just happened to be conducive to enhancing your performance pharmaceutically, conducive on all levels of the sport.

It’s the fact that it appears to have been an incredibly widespread and open secret throughout major league baseball that keeps me from vilifying the players named in the report. I sympathize with them more for feeling pressured to compete at a higher level and to come back from injuries quicker and stronger, and heck if the competition is using it and the guy fighting for your job is using it, why not? The reason I don’t view it as cheating is that major league baseball seems to have condoned it. They made money off of it. Everyone loved the long ball, and Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire saved the sport in its post-strike years with a homerun race fueled by andro and other performance enhancing drugs. Everyone looked the other way when guys showed up in spring training with 15-20 extra pounds of muscle. People, including the press, joked about it, but no one at the upper levels of MLB management seemed willing to investigate it. At least not until Jose Canseco came out with his book, saying that around 85% of players in the game were juicing, soon followed by the BALCO case which pointed the fingers at Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, and Gary Sheffield.

I’m just waiting for the steroid furor to subside, and for MLB to clean up the game. Everything else is just noise to me.

Curt Schilling believes that if Clemens is guilty, he should forfeit the four Cy Young awards he’s won since 1997.
I don’t agree with this for a lot of the reasons previously stated. Schilling says that the awards should go to the runners-up, but how can we know that they weren’t on steroids as well. It seems we have to assume that everyone was on steroids, and if that’s the case, then Clemens was the best pitcher in an era dominated by cheating.

ESPN’s Jayson Stark says that the case against Clemens isn’t airtight and wouldn’t hold up in court without further corroborating evidence.

Andy Pettite admits to using HGH once in 2002. Brian Roberts also admits to using steroids once in 2003. ESPN’s writers call such accusations “a joke” and demand for them to come clean.
I’m all for everyone coming clean, but one thing that annoys me is the “holier than thou” attitude that seems to frame every sportswriters’ articles these days. Look kids, it’s a race to see who’s the most morally outraged.

Here’s LA Times’ columnist Bill Plaschke taking the lead.

Uh-oh, here’s a team effort from various Hall of Fame voters.

Plaschke’s colleague at the Times, Helen Elliot, gets the first moral judgment on Dodgers’ owner Frank McCourt’s recent signing.

Oh, incredible, Plaschke pulls back into the lead with an article bemoaning the Dodgers’ “sullied history”. (Extra points for the use of the word sullied.)

· Here’s a good article from Buster Olney’s blog examining the lack of critical insight of the Mitchell Report. He makes some good points about what the commissioner’s office should have done over the last decade and why the report may have wrongly tarnished some players’ images.

· TJ Simers sums up my thoughts nicely. Hopefully I won’t feel the need to write anything else about steroids for a long time.

· Detroit makes a huge trade with Florida, dealing two highly prized prospects for young uber-stud Miguel Cabrera and pitcher Dontrelle Willis. Cabrera will slot nicely into the middle of Detroit’s order, giving them one of the most impressive in major league baseball. Willis strengthens the back of their rotation behind Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander and Kenny Rogers. The Tigers signed Willis to a three-year extension worth $29 million, less than what the Mariners gave Carlos Silva, who has a career 4.31 ERA. I like the Willis contract, because even though he’s moving to a tougher league, I think being near the back of the rotation will take the pressure off him and allow him to focus on returning to the pitcher he was two years ago. I don’t think he’ll ever be more than a middle of the rotation type guy, but his upside and talent makes him worth the risk.

Rob Neyer disagrees, and has the stats to back it up.

· Dodgers sign Japanese pitcher Hiroki Kuroda to a three-year deal worth $35.3 million. While the market for starting pitching may have forced them to overpay, it appears they’ve found a solid pitcher to start behind Chad Billingsley, Brad Penny, and Derek Lowe. The main thing I don’t like about the deal is that they’ll be paying him $13 million to pitch when he’s 35 years old. Hopefully he’s more Hideo Nomo than Kaz Ishii.

Jim Allen likes the deal, while Tristan Cockcroft is less excited from a fantasy standpoint.

· Eric Karabell has a nice blog post on players to avoid for next year. Not to spoil it for you, but he includes Carlos Pena (who I advised Brubaker not to keep over Garrett Atkins), Hunter Pence, and Ryan Zimmerman, two inclusions that are disconcerting to myself as I want to keep both of them.

Since we’re on the subject of players to avoid, here’s a brief list of pitchers that I think will be overrated next year. All four pitchers had sub-4.00 ERA’s in 2007, but don’t pick them too early. They throw a lot of pitches and walk too many to be efficient.
1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Tom Gorzelanny
3. Matt Cain
4. Orlando Hernandez

· One non-fantasy related item before I go. I caught VH1’s 1oo Greatest Songs of the 90’s this weekend. Some thoughts: the music of the 90’s is not nearly as enjoyable as the music of the 80’s. With a few exceptions in the first hour, nearly every song on the 100 Greatest Songs of the 80’s countdown will get you fired up and pumped. Not so for the 90’s countdown; everything’s a lot more acoustic and mellow, and a large amount of music influenced by the artists of Lillith Fair. Of course there’s the few grunge hits, poppy boy band hits, rap hits and metal hits on the list, but most of it is angsty and angry but in the softer way. When they got to the end of the countdown, which was topped of course by Nirvana’s “Smells Like Teen Spirit”, I was livid with the omissions. No Rage Against the Machine? No Smashing Pumpkins? No Foo Fighters, Sublime, No Doubt, or Dave Matthews? Sure Canadian’s answer to Shaggy makes the list with fucking “Informer”, but no “Bullet With Butterfly Wings” or “Everlong”? These were great bands with multiple hits throughout the 90’s. Plus so many bands on this list received only one spot, when they should have had more. Nirvana, Pearl Jam, and Green Day only had one song each on the list? Ridiculous.

· Oh well, there’s always this decade. In nine years, I’ll be watching the members of Sum 41 and Linkin Park on VH1’s special 100 Greatest Songs of the 00’s talk about how great it was when people bought there music. Merry Christmas.

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Andruw Jones gets $36 million from the Dodgers

The Dodgers decide to admit that they overpaid last year for a centerfielder by overpaying for a centerfielder this year. The Dodgers signed centerfielder Andruw Jones to a two year contract worth $36 million. The amazing thing is that despite batting for his worst average since his rookie year, Jones is getting a $4 million-a-year raise. The Dodgers did pay market price, as set by the Torii Hunter contract of $90 million over five years, but they are definitely paying superstar money for an outfielder who's not in the top ten. The Dodgers are getting a bit of a break on this contract though; it is only for two years and Jones's agent Scott Boras had originally wanted $100 million for his client. The Dodgers get Jones in the latter stages of his prime, and they won't be overpaying him when he really starts to decline.

And it does appear as if the decline is just around the corner, as Jones had his worst offensive season in years, though at Jones's worst, he still would have led the Dodgers in homeruns last year. Jones could hit 40 homeruns, though I'm predicting closer to 30, and moving to Dodgers Stadium should have no effect on his offensive numbers, as it had a better park factor for homeruns than Turner Field last year. Jones's batting average was better on the road by fifty points than at home, so there's hope that he can rebound and hit closer to his .263 career average. It's heartening that Jones hit .290 last year against the Dodgers division rivals, including 10 for 26 against the Padres. Jones could rebound as he fights to establish himself for one last big contract; it's not impossible to see him hitting .250 with 30 homeruns and over 100 RBI. The Dodgers finally have a slugger in the middle of their lineup, now all they need to do is somehow package Juan Pierre and Andre Ethier for Erik Bedard and Joe Blanton, though it might take a miracle to make that happen.

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Keepers Part III

Moving on in our keepers series, let's look at the roster for Ted's Gunny Jetloves. Ted's team has a lot of aging veterans, with some stars near the top, but not too much depth to fill the team out. Before we look at which seven I think he should keep, a quick recap of our league's structure:

Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. I will be going through each team's keeper in their draft order for 2008.

Gunny Jetloves

Hitters
Craig Biggio (Hou - 2B)
Casey Blake (Cle - 1B,3B,OF)
Orlando Cabrera (CWS - SS)
Chris Duffy (Pit - OF)
Jermaine Dye (CWS - OF)
Pedro Feliz (SF - 3B)
Nomar Garciaparra (LAD - 1B,3B)
Troy Glaus (Tor - 3B,SS)
Luis Gonzalez (LAD - OF)
Geoff Jenkins (Mil - OF)
Derek Jeter (NYY - SS)
Chipper Jones (Atl - 3B)
Joe Mauer (Min - C)
Magglio Ordonez (Det - OF)
Sammy Sosa (Tex - OF)
Brad Wilkerson (Tex - 1B,OF)
Dmitri Young (Was - 1B)

Pitchers
Bronson Arroyo (Cin - SP)
Jeff Francis (Col - SP)
Jeremy Guthrie (Bal - SP,RP)
Greg Maddux (SD - SP)
Hideki Okajima (Bos - RP)
Johan Santana (Min - SP)
Claudio Vargas (Mil - SP,RP)
Carlos Villanueva (Mil - SP,RP
Chien-Ming Wang (NYY - SP)
Jered Weaver (LAA - SP)

1. Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer ended up 6th among all catchers last year on ESPN's player rater, but he has the talent to be top three every year. Mauer's year was hurt by injuries; he appeared in only 109 games, but his numbers compare favorably to his 2005 season and it's not unimaginable that he could have broke into the double-digits for homeruns for the second year in a row. Mauer could still hit 20 homeruns some day, but for right now expect 10-15 with an average around .300. One interesting stat: Mauer hit .342 on the road last year and .248 at home.

2. Johan Santana
Johan Santana is arguably the best pitcher of the past decade. His career ERA is 3.22, and opponents have batted only .221 against him since he first came in the league. Santana is right in the middle of his prime, averaging 245 strikeouts over the past four years, and he's young enough to dominate like that for at least another three years. Santana had a rough second half in 2007, getting lit for an ERA of 4.04, but that number is skewed by a particularly bad September. Despite the high ERA, opponents only hit .236 against Santana after the break. One stat to watch: Santana gave up 33 homeruns last year, third most in the league. Still, Santana will compete in 2008 for the title of best pitcher, and he's definitely one to keep.

3. Derek Jeter
Derek Jeter is often derided in fantasy circles as overrated, but while he isn't a top-five fantasy shortstop, he does provide solid value for his position. He's durable, averaging 639 atbats over the past four seasons. He provides a good batting average, can hit 15 or more home runs, has the ability to steal 15-25 stolen bases, and he scores a lot of runs by playing in a high-powered offense. Derek Jeter might not be a fantasy superstar, but he's a solid multicategorical producer.

4. Chipper Jones
Chipper Jones is someone who I consistently write off, but at the age of 35, Jones put in a season that rivaled some of his best during his prime. Jones always misses a few games each year, he's averaged 122 over the past four seasons, but when he's healthy, he produces. He's slugged close to .600 over the past two years, and even though he'll start the 2008 as a 36 year-old, there's no reason to assume he can't hit 25 or more homeruns with an batting average near .300. His numbers have no where to go but down, but it seems like he has the talent to slow the decline over the next couple of years.

5. Magglio Ordonez
Magglio Ordonez had an incredible MVP-caliber season last year. He hit .363/.434/.595 compared to his career averages of .312/.370/.522. Ordonez is highly unlikely to repeat last year's numbers, and it would be foolish to expect 30 or more homeruns, as it's been a long time since Ordonez last did that. Ordonez is getting older, but he's in a very solid lineup, especially with the addition of Miguel Cabrera, and he shouldn't feel pressed to shoulder all of the offensive burden. One hopeful sign is the patience Ordonez showed at the plate last year; his walks per plate appearance in 2007 was a career high of .112, up from .070 in 2006. Ordonez should easily hit 25 homeruns with an average around .315.

6. Jermaine Dye
Jermaine Dye had a horrible first half last year, batting .214 before the break, but he rebounded nicely in the last two months, hitting .300. He's near the end of his prime, but he does have the talent to hit 30 homeruns, though I would put that number at the high-end of my expectations for next year. His strong finish to the 2007 season hopefully signals a strong 2008; with any luck, he'll hit around .275-.280 next year. Dye is a solid second-tier outfielder and he's not a bad keeper for next year.

7. Troy Glaus
Low-average, high-power has always been Troy Glaus's calling card, but last year represented a significant drop-off in power. Glaus only played in 115 games in 2007, so he could still easily hit 30 homeruns over a full season. Glaus had a good first-half, hitting .277, but a batting average around .250 is more what you should expect. Hopefully the Blue Jays will bat him fifth, where he hit .353 in 102 at bats, as opposed to 4th, where he hit .229 in 175 at bats. There will be streaks, but Glaus is a decent source of power. His inclusion is more a statement of the talent on Ted's team than of Glaus's own.

The Also-Rans
There weren't too many other players I considered keeping. Most of the rest of Ted's hitters are aging former stars like Nomar Garciaparra, Craig Biggio, Geoff Jenkins, and Luis Gonzalez. Chien-Ming Wang is a solid source for WHIP and wins, but he doesn't provide any strikeouts. Jeff Francis is solid across the board, but he's not quite keeper worthy.

All right, time to get back to the weekend. Until next time, stay thirsty my friends.

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Hunter signs with Angels

Taking a break from our look at league keepers, we stop to take a look at a free agent who has actually signed with a new team. Torii Hunter signed a five-year contract worth $90 million dollars to play centerfield for the Angels. That seems reasonable for a market where Mike Lowell gets $12 million a year despite being a year older than Hunter and not nearly as consistent, but the truth is that Hunter was overpaid. The Angels did what they had to do to get the number one centerfielder on the market, but I'm sure they'll regret paying making him an $18 million a year player until he's 37. Let's look at some fantasy ramifications.

Torii Hunter has averaged over the past three years 24 homeruns, 87 RBI, 17 stolen bases, and a .279 batting average, despite only playing 98 games in 2005. It seems reasonable to expect those numbers or better next year with the Angels. He'll probably have more than 20 stolen bases next year due to more stolen base attempts; the Angels attempted 52 more stolen bases as a team last year than the Twins. Hunter's RBI chances should go up as well; the Angels scored 104 more runs than the Twins last year, and, while Orlando Cabrera (who has been traded to the White Sox) accounted for 101 runs last year, their offense should be able to replace his .345 on-base percentage at the top of the order. Hunter also benefits from moving to the AL West; against the Angels' division rivals last year, he hit .333 with three homeruns in 80 at bats. The only division team that seems to have his number is Oakland; Hunter hit .182 against them last year. One stat to note: Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN points at that while Hunter is very good at hitting lefthanded pitching (.314 BA, .356 OBP, .550 SLG), there aren't as many southpaws in the AL West as there are in the AL Central. Read more here.


Hunter's defense in centerfield should be a bit of an improvement over the incumbent, Gary Matthews Jr. Matthews' range factor (2.90) was actually a bit better than Hunter's (2.68) last year, but Hunter's zone rating (.894) was far better than Matthew's (.851). Hunter's zone rating ranked 7th among all centerfielders, while Matthews' ranked 17th.

Hunter's signing allows the Angels to move Gary Matthews Jr. over to leftfield, a likely waste of his defensive talents, but one necesitated by the fact that he has no where else to play, with Garrett Anderson probably at DH and Vladimir Guerrero in right. Having another RBI-man in the middle of the order will allow Matthews to focus on getting on base; Matthews hit .281 when leading off last year and only .240 when hit in the 4th and 5th spots in the lineup, which are traditionally power spots. Batting leadoff, Matthews' OBP was .340, nearly equal to Cabrera's last year; it's not impossible to believe that Matthew could come close to equaling Cabrera's run totals from last year. Matthew's could be a bit of a sleeper next year based on his disappointing season last year and depending on where he hits next year.

The player who loses the most value in 2008 because of this signing is Reggie Willits. Willits was third on the team in OBP with .391, and was second on the team with 27 stolen bases in 430 at bats. Willits provided cheap value last year in runs, batting average and stolen bases, but that value should drop next year as the Angels will struggle to find him playing time in the outfield. Personally, I'd rather play Willits than Matthews; Willits gets on base better and he's more patient. Willits was very productive last year, mainly hitting out of the nine-hole or leadoff, but the only way he'll be productive next year is if he or Matthews is traded.

In fact, it does seem like first-year GM Tony Reagins is stockpiling pieces for a trade. With his acquisition of starting pitcher Jon Garland, Reagins now has a few intriguing outfielders and starting pitchers that could be packaged with a prospect or two in order to land a solid position player, such as Miguel Cabrera and/or Miguel Tejada. I'm predicting more moves to come from Anaheim.

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Keepers Part II

We continue our look at keepers for each team in my Head to Head league, with the consolation championship runner-up The Balls. John's team has a balanced mix of top pitching and top hitting, with some solid options to fill out the rest of his picks with. Let's dive in.

THE BALLS

Hitters:
Moisés Alou (NYM - OF)
Garrett Atkins (Col - 1B,3B)
Milton Bradley (SD - OF)
Robinson Canó (NYY - 2B)
Michael Cuddyer (Min - 1B,OF)
Rajai Davis (SF - OF)
Cliff Floyd (ChC - OF)
Adrián González (SD - 1B)
Khalil Greene (SD - SS)
José Guillén (Sea - OF)
Xavier Nady (Pit - 1B,OF)
Carlos Peña (TB - 1B)
Mike Piazza (Oak - C)
Albert Pujols (StL - 1B)
Hanley Ramírez (Fla - SS)

Pitchers:
Erik Bedard (Bal - SP)
Jeremy Bonderman (Det - SP)
Mark Buehrle (CWS - SP)
Matt Cain (SF - SP)
Roger Clemens (NYY - SP)
Phil Hughes (NYY - SP)
Scott Kazmir (TB - SP)
Ted Lilly (ChC - SP)
Jake Peavy (SD - SP)
Oliver Pérez (NYM - SP)
Chris Young (SD - SP)


1. Albert Pujols
A no-brainer choice, Pujols was the consensus number one draft pick amongst almost everyone last year; despite a 2007 season that was below his standards, Pujols still placed in the top ten for OPS. His power numbers were lacking his normal "oomph", but his batting average was within his normal levels. This is the type of player you build your team around for the next six or seven years.

2. Hanley Ramirez
Another no-brainer, the former NL Rookie of the Year raised his numbers in almost every offensive categories in his second year. Arguably the best hitter at his position, Ramirez is also a major threat on basepaths, stealing 102 bases in 312 games. Only 23, Ramirez could be a dominant fantasy force at his position for the next decade. Even if concerns about his defense force him to the outfield in a few years, he should still be a great asset for any fantasy team.

3. Jake Peavy
One of the more talented pitchers in the league just keeps getting better. Peavy set career highs in wins, strikeouts, and batting average against last year, placing in the top three in each category, including ERA. Peavy has the talent to be the top starting pitcher every year, and while he plays in a great pitcher's park, he's just as good on the road. I don't usually keep pitchers, but if you have one the best pitchers in the National League in his prime, you have to hold on to him.

4. Erik Bedard
Before he was shutdown by the Orioles with a strained oblique muscle, Bedard was making his case to be considered one of the top pitchers in the AL. He compiled 221 strikeouts in 182 innings to go along with a 3.17 ERA, despite the fact that he plays in a tough park for pitchers. The strained oblique doesn't appear to be serious, as Bedard could have been activated a few days before the end of the season, but the Orioles chose to end his season early. Bedard has great talent, and could lead the AL in most of the major pitching categories in 2008.

5. Robinson Cano
Cano's age and the position he plays make him a solid keeper for 2008. He hit his way into the top five for batting average and slugging percentage among all second basemen, and he was the only second baseman besides Chase Utley to make it to the top five for both. The only thing Cano lacks is speed, but he is surrounded by a great offense, and his youth means he could possibly hit as many as 25 homeruns a year in his prime.

6. Garrett Atkins
Okay, here's where it gets tough, as John's team has a few possible options for these last two spots, and they all happen to play a corner infield position. Since John already has Pujols at first base, I'm going to pick Atkins to fill the third base spot. Atkins plays a shallower position, and despite having an OPS lower than Carlos Pena, his mark of .853 was good enough for seventh among all third basemen. Atkins has shown the ability to hit for average and power. He's definitely a product of Coors Field as shown by his .254 average and .446 slugging percentage on the road, but unless the Rockies trade him away to make room for Ian Stewart, he'll continue to have the benefits of his home field. For more of my thoughts on Atkins vs. Pena, see here.

7. Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzalez or Pena, it's basically comes down to your fantasy philosophy. Pena offers more pure power, aided by the fact that he plays in a park much more conducive to hitting, while Gonzalez has shown himself to be a more well-rounded hitter. Basically it comes down to my belief that Pena will not be able hit .280 with 45-plus homeruns in 2008. I think his batting average will regress closer to his career average of .252. Gonzalez can flat out mash, just look at his slugging percentage of .500 or better over the past two years, which he was able to do even though he has to play half his games at cavernous Petco Park. Even when he's not hitting homeruns, Gonzalez can still help you with his batting average.

The Also-Rans
Carlos Pena was hard to keep off this list, but I just don't see him sustaining that batting average. It's more likely that he'll either strikeout, walk, or hit a homerun, two of which are not bad outcomes, but it's unlikely that he'll help your team any other way. At least Gonzalez will be able to drive in runs without relying on hitting homeruns. I know John has Milton Bradley in high regard for what he was able to do for the Padres while healthy, but he'll miss a large portion of the season to his injury suffered bizarrely last year at the hands of Bud Black. Khalil Greene has a lot of pop for a middle infielder, but that's about it; he doesn't have more overall value than Cano, Atkins, or Bedard. Jose Guillen has a lot of talent; keep an eye on where he signs next year as his home park could enhance his value, but otherwise he's still only a fringe keeper.

All in all, this is a good group of keepers, with some great studs both at the plate and on the mound. Next time I'll be back to look at Ted's Gunny Jetloves.

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Keepers, Keepers, Here Come the Keepers

With the offseason in full-swing, and everyone all a-twitter with thoughts of A-Rod and the rest of the free-agents, there will be lots to discuss in the upcoming weeks. I'll be commenting on the notable transactions and their impact to the fantasy world, but while I have some free time, I'll be using this space to discuss who I think each manager in my fantasy league should keep for next year. Now, unless the Dodgers grossly over pay for Miguel Cabrera by giving up Matt Kemp, Andy Laroche, Clayton Kershaw, and Chad Billingsley, without also getting Dontrelle Willis or Dan Uggla in return, I will be posting these picks every couple of days. If the aforemention scenario does occur, I'll probably be driving out to take a fat dump on Ned Colletti's lawn. Let's get on with the picks.

Our league is a 12 team, 5x5 category, Head to Head league. Each team consists of 25 players, and each manager gets to keep seven players with no restriction. There is no limit to innings pitched, so starting pitchers are devalued somewhat by constant streaming. (For those who are unfamiliar with the strategy, streaming is the practice of picking up and starting as many pitchers as you can each day in order to win in the strikeouts and wins categories. This strategy requires good closers to win the saves category, and to offset the often poor ERA and WHIP totals that result.)

I'll be going through each team by draft order for next season. The first is Dissect Yourself, managed by Micah. He holds the first pick by virtue of being the consolation bracket champion.
Here is his roster, followed by my choices and comments:

Hitters
Josh Barfield (Cle - 2B)
Carlos Delgado (NYM - 1B)
Jason Giambi (NYY - 1B)
Todd Helton (Col - 1B)
Matt Holliday (Col - OF)
Raúl Ibañez (Sea - OF)
Austin Kearns (Was - OF)
Juan Pierre (LAD - OF)
Iván Rodríguez (Det - C,1B)
Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF)
Mark Teahen (KC - 1B,3B,OF)
Troy Tulowitzki (Col - SS)
Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B)

Pitchers
Brian Fuentes (Col - RP)
Jon Garland (CWS - SP)
Orlando Hernández (NYM - SP)
Braden Looper (StL - SP,RP)
Mike Mussina (NYY - SP)
Andy Pettitte (NYY - SP)
J.J. Putz (Sea - RP)
C.C. Sabathia (Cle - SP)
Ben Sheets (Mil - SP)
Javier Vázquez (CWS - SP)
Tim Wakefield (Bos - SP)
Dontrelle Willis (Fla - SP)

My Choices:

1. Matt Holliday
Holliday's an easy choice; the MVP candidate set career highs this past season in almost every meaningful offensive category. He'll be 28 when the season starts, right in the middle of his prime. His numbers are helped by playing half his games at Coors, but he's no slouch on the road, slugging .485 and batting .301. He's a borderline first-rounder, and should continue to be a highly productive player for the next few years.

2. Alfonso Soriano
Despite not rivaling last year's numbers, Soriano had another quality season, matching his career high in slugging percentage and almost equaling his career mark in batting average. He hit more than thirty home runs for the fifth time in his career, and his offensive numbers would have been even better if he hadn't missed most of August with an injured right hamstring. Hampered by the injury, he attempted less than thirty stolen bases for only the second time in his career. He's been a 30/30 threat throughout his career and should still have a few highly productive seasons left.

3. Juan Pierre
Juan Pierre may be overrated as a baseball player, but for fantasy owners looking for stolen bases, he's just right. Having Pierre on his team gives Micah a strong competitive edge in the stolen bases category; add in Soriano, and Micah could possibly have one hundred stolen bases between two players. Because of his poor on-base percentage, Pierre might find it harder to steal 50 plus bases as his legs get older, but he does provide a solid batting batting average, which is made more valuable to fantasy owners because of his high number of at bats. An interesting stat: Pierre has more walks than strikeouts in his career. Pierre rounds out a solid outfield for Micah.

4. Troy Tulowitzki
Tulowitzki is another solid keeper; despite his awful stats away from Coors, he is young enough to improve greatly on those numbers. The Rookie of the Year runner-up needs to cut down on his strikeouts, but he has the talent to hit 30 homeruns a year with a solid average. How he does next year without the anonymity of being a rookie will tell a lot about his abilities as a major leaguer.

5. Dan Uggla
Uggla was a top ten second baseman last year, and he could be top five if he can bring his batting average back up to his rookie mark of .282. Even though his batting average fell thirty points from last year, he increased his walk total by twenty. He offers a lot of pop for his position, leading all second basemen in homeruns despite playing in a park not conducive to them. Uggla was a solid infielder, and if he improves on last year's numbers, Micah will have a great middle infield.

6. C.C. Sabathia
Normally I don't advocate keeping pitchers, preferring to find them through the draft and off the waiver wire, but there aren't too many other viable options on Micah's team, and Sabathia was very good last year, rating behind only Jake Peavy on ESPN's player rater. My only concern is the high number of innings he pitched last season, thirty-one more than his career high (not counting 15.1 playoff innings in which he got shelled.) Sabathia could be poised for a letdown next season, but he has improved in strikeouts, walks and ERA over the last four years, showing his maturation into an elite pitcher.

7. J.J. Putz
While I normally don't advocate keeping starting pitchers, I almost never keep closers. Saves is a very volatile category, as is the closer position; over the past three seasons, only four closers have placed in the top ten for saves more than twice, only two have placed in the top five more than once. There are suprises at the top of the saves list each year, and this year was no exception with Jose Valverde and Joe Borowski coming in first and second with more than 45 saves each. Putz had his second season of 35 or more saves, and he was ranked the number one closer on ESPN's player rater. His strikeout rate was down compared to last year, but so was his Batting Average Against, with a ridiculous .153. He is a solid choice for next year.

The Also-Rans

There were a few players who could be considered as keepers for next year, but I just couldn't justify leaving anyone of this least for these guys. Jason Giambi suffered through injuries all last year, resulting in the second-worst OPS of his career. He most likely won't have first-base eligibility next year, relegating him to the Utility spot. At thirty-six his best years appear to be behind him. Carlos Delgado is another aging All-Star that just missed this list; he couldn't crack the top fifteen first basemen on the player rater and it's not that hard to find players at his position who hit 20-25 homeruns with better batting averages. He's not done yet, so keep an eye on him in the draft. Mark Teahen was a touted third base prospect, but he failed to build on last year's power numbers. With Alex Gordon vying for playing time, Teahen will only be OF eligible in 2008, and even repeats his production from 2006, it's hard to justify keeping a .285/20HR hitting outfielder over any of the guys on this list.

So, those are my picks for who Micah should keep. He definitely has a solid and balanced offense, and a good foundation for his pitching staff. He should be very competitive in 2008.

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Hey Look Everybody, It's Joe Torre!

Joe Torre is coming.

L.A.'s response is cautious optimism, if not downright just cautious.

ESPN's response is a bit more pessimistic, and almost virulent.

While I don't share ESPN's negative views, which had the not so subtle air of a knee jerk reaction to the hype surrounding Torre, I don't believe that Torre will lead the Dodgers to the Promised Land unless Frank McCourt and Ned Coletti can provide him with the talent needed to win.

The Dodgers need to strengthen their rotation and they need a power hitter, which gives them something in common with almost every team in the league. They have possible solutions to their rotation needs, but these solutions need to stay healthy, need time, or need a miracle. The Dodgers have talent, but it is mostly raw, and in some cases, overdone; Torre alone will not be able to drag them into the postseason .

Still, I want to leave you with my unwavering belief about the Joe Torre hire: This is a good thing for Dodger baseball. This makes us relevant. There is an excitement around this season that hasn't been present in a long time. Dodger fans have something to look forward to, the credibility of a Name, which is something that's been lacking since Gary Sheffield was traded.

Joe Torre won't get blood from a stone, but this team will listen to him, and hopefully they will mature under him, and when Torre leaves, hopefully they will be ready to follow his handpicked successor.

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