First Trade of the Year

I was happy to be a part of the first trade of the year in our league as I and Orc Mischief swapped players.   Orc Mischief looks to have improved their chances of success this year and I have added some risk in the hopes that I will have greater success in the near future.  I tend to make at least one bad trade each year (Adam Dunn for Morgan Ensberg in 2006, Brian Roberts for Kelly Johnson in 2008) and hopefully this trade won't bite me in the ass this  year.

Here's the trade: I get Matt Kemp and Joe Mauer and Orc Mischief gets Brian McCann and Carlos Lee.  

Orc Mischief has greatly improved their team by moving an injured catcher for a better one and adding one of the best and most consistent sluggers in the game.  Both are solid keepers for next year.  I gave up a lot, but I did get younger by adding Kemp, whose steals should make up for Lee's power, and my hope is that he will be a solid star for years to come.  Lee is a great player but he probably can play at an elite level for only a couple more years.  Getting Kemp greatly improves my keepers for next year, though I may have hurt by team's ability to be competitive in 2009.  How I do will depend on how many games Joe Mauer misses this year.  If Mauer only misses a month, I could still be in the hunt for the playoffs, because when he's a great hitter when healthy.  I think McCann is a better fantasy player, but Mauer is not far behind.  I think both teams got a fair deal from this trade.

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Here's my ESPN team

Just for kicks, here's another team I've drafted over at ESPN.  It's a league setup by some commenters over at razzball.com.  The league I'm in is just one of many for that website, and the best team out of all the leagues gets $50 worth of Taco Bell coupons, so wish me luck.  It's a 12-team league and I had the 2nd pick.  Let me know what you think.

C         Ramon Hernandez, Cin         

1B       Albert Pujols, StL

2B       Brandon Phillips, Cin

3B       Adrian Beltre, Sea

SS        Derek Jeter, NYY

2B/SS  Ryan Theriot,

1B/3B  Ian Stewart, Col

OF       Matt Kemp, LAD

OF       Nate McLouth, Pit

OF       Curtis Granderson, Det

OF       Justin Upton, Ari

OF       Adam Jones, Bal

UTIL   Mike Jacobs, KC

Bench  Joe Mauer, Min

Bench  Wladimir Balentien, Sea

Bench  Jason Giambi, Oak

P          Roy Oswalt, Hou

P          John Lackey, LAA

P          Brad Lidge, Phi

P          Kevin Slowey, Min

P          Matt Capps, Pit

P          Gil Meche, KC

P          Chris Volstad, Fla

P          Mark Lowe, Sea

P          Andy Sonnanstine, TB 

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Here Are 6 Pitchers That Could Have Some Value If They Make The Rotation

None of these pitchers were drafted in our league, but I'm going to be watching how their first few weeks go if they make their teams' rotations.  These are merely speculative picks and deep sleepers that could give fantasy teams some value during the year.  

1. Clay Buchholz (BOS)

2. J.A. Happ (PHI)

3. Scott Lewis (CLE)

4. Yusmeiro Petit (ARI)

5. Garrett Mock (WAS)

6. Clayton Richard (CWS)

As a bonus, here is one pitcher that has secured a rotation spot and could provide some value, but wasn't drafted in our league.  Keep him in the back of your mind.

David Purcey (TOR)

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Draft Analysis - Part 3

Allow me to present our third and final installment of my analysis of our league’s recent draft.  With just six rounds left, I will be dispensing with the best and worst picks for each round, because at this point in the draft most teams are filling out their roster positions and you really can’t go very wrong no matter who you pick once we get into the end rounds.  You can easily figure out which players I like or don’t like from commentary.

Round Thirteen

1. Chris Dickerson      Dissect Yourself

2. Mike Cameron        Orc Mischief

3. Manny Parra            Order of the Phoenix

4. John Maine              Butt Admirals

5. John Smoltz            Summer Fox

6. Coco Crisp              Tossers

7. Elijah Dukes            Screaming Lemurs

8. Jorge Posada           The $5 Footlongs

9. Troy Percival           Naterade

10. Jair Jurrjens           The Balls

11. Andy Sonnanstine Adrian's Revenge

12. Mike Jacobs          Macafey

Comments:  This was a tough round for me.  I had been planning on getting either Parra or Jurrjens this round, and then get Mike Jacobs with my next pick, but it all went wrong.  Brubaker took Jurrjens and I got pissed off and took Sonnanstine, not realizing that Tim would take Jacobs.  I ended up taking Carlos Guillen with my next pick.  I was not happy with that turn of events.  I’m not sure about Chris Dickerson; I haven’t really read anything that makes me think he’ll be a .300/20/20 guy this year.  Maybe he’ll be good, but he might not be better than Mike Cameron, who has been an underrated 20/20 player for most of the past five years.  He missed the first month of the season due to a suspension, but he still hit 25 HR and stole 17 bases.  I think he’ll come close to 20/20 again this year, though his batting average does leave something to be desired.  I also like Elijah Dukes in this round as a possible 20/20 candidate; he should get it if he can stay healthy on the field and out of trouble off it.  I don’t like Jorge Posada for this year, not when other catching options are available such as Kelly Shoppach (21 HR in 352 AB last year), Ramon Hernandez (15 HR last year) or AJ Pierzynski (13 HR, .281 BA).  I’m surprised no one took a chance on one of the Rangers’ catching prospects.  I’m beginning to think that Rogstad has a thing for pitchers over 40.

Round Fourteen

1. Adam Lind             Macafey

2. Carlos Guillen         Adrian's Revenge

3. Kaz Matsui              The Balls

4. Troy Glaus             Naterade

5. Hideki Matsui         The $5 Footlongs

6. Travis Snider           Screaming Lemurs

7. Jesse Litsch             Tossers

8. Jack Cust                 Summer Fox

9. Jeremy Hermida      Butt Admirals

10. Hank Blalock        Order of the Phoenix

11. Joe Saunders         Orc Mischief

12. Jason Motte           Dissect Yourself

Comments: I would have been happy to take Lind to fill my UT spot, but Tim took him and now I’m stuck with Carlos Guillen.  At least he should hit for average and provide Runs and RBI.  I’ve been reading a lot about how Lind is going to be better than Snider this year, and I think I agree.  Lind was once a hyped hitting prospect a couple of seasons ago, and though he didn’t pan out right away, he’s now had some seasoning at the major league level and could be ready to take the next step forward.  Snider is young, and he could just as easily struggle as Lind once did.  There were quite a few players taken this round that could put up interesting numbers if they can get 450-500 at bats this season.  I think Blalock does it, but not Glaus or Matsui.  Saunders and Litsch seem like pretty interchangeable pitchers; neither misses many bats and they’re both usually done by the seventh inning.  I like Litsch better since he didn’t issue as many free passes last year as Saunders did, and Saunders was recently experiencing tightness in his shoulder.  Most pitchers in these rounds are replaceable. 

Round Fifteen

1. Dan Wheeler           Dissect Yourself

2. Brandon Lyon         Orc Mischief

3. Alexi Casilla            Order of the Phoenix

4. Clint Barmes           Butt Admirals

5. Colby Rasmus         Summer Fox

6. JJ Putz                     Tossers

7. Edgar Renteria        Screaming Lemurs

8. Oliver Perez            The $5 Footlongs

9. Eric Byrnes             Naterade

10. Justin Duchscherer The Balls

11. Kevin Gregg         Adrian's Revenge

12. Manuel Corpas      Macafey

Comments: Gregg is still in contention with Marmol for the Cubs’ closer role, and he could win the role based on his previous closing experience and the fact that Marmol is a much more versatile reliever.  This could be a great pick for me if he wins the role and gets 30 saves.  Brandon Lyon is another reliever looking to win the closer role, and ESPN has him at the top of the Tigers’ closer depth chart.  I think he’ll be the closer for the Tigers and this will be a good pick for Clint.  Wheeler should give Micah a few save opportunities when Percival misses games, which he will.  Brubaker took Duchscherer in the right round; this is a risky pick because of the threat of injury to Duchscherer, but he’s talented and could provide solid value here.  Tim could get some saves from Corpas, but everything I’ve read seems to indicate that the Rockies will have Huston Street close in order to maximize his trade value.  I think Corpas will get some saves this year.  Byrnes was great two years ago, but he missed most of last year with injury and he has yet to play in spring training.  He could provide some steals if he gets playing time but he’ll be fighting with Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy for playing time in the outfield.  Naterade has already dropped him for Randy Winn, which I think is a good move.  Rogstad was able to draft Rasmus again, and hopefully he’ll be able to play him sometime this year.

Round Sixteen

1. Felipe Lopez           Macafey

2. Jeremy Guthrie        Adrian's Revenge

3. Kevin Kouzmanoff The Balls

4. Brandon Wood       Naterade

5. Mike Pelfrey           The $5 Footlongs

6. Kenshin Kawakami Screaming Lemurs

7. Jason Giambi           Tossers

8. Hideki Okajima       Summer Fox

9. Ryan Garko             Butt Admirals

10. Ben Sheets            Order of the Phoenix

11. Denard Span         Orc Mischief

12. Ubaldo Jimenez    Dissect Yourself

Comments: I’m a fan of Kouzmanoff for this round; he’ll give you 20 HR and a serviceable batting average.  He’s a good guy to fill in your UT spot.  Same with Jason Giambi, who I think will be good for 25 HR.  I would rather have Jimenez over Sheets, especially since Sheets will make 15 starts at the most this season.  Sheets will lose value if he signs with a team like Texas, which seems likely since that’s where he’s been rehabbing.  Jimenez was wild last year, but he strikes out a lot of guys and he could improve in his second full year in the league.  Will Kawakami be more like Hiroki Kuroda or Kaz Ishii?  This is a good upside pick.  It’s good to take risks on pitchers in these rounds since they can be replaced fairly easily.  Brandon Wood could be a good pick, and if he gets enough at bats I think 20 HR is easily possible, though his batting average will hurt you.  Span is a good speculative pick for his ability to steal bases, but how many steals he gets will depend on how playing time shakes out in that crowded outfield. 

Round Seventeen

1. Gaby Sanchez         Dissect Yourself

2. Juan Rivera             Orc Mischief

3. Brad Penny            Order of the Phoenix

4. Noah Lowry            Butt Admirals

5. Casey Blake            Summer Fox

6. Freddy Sanchez      Tossers

7. Jonathan Sanchez    Screaming Lemurs

8. David DeJesus        The $5 Footlongs

9. Rafael Soriano        Naterade

10. Phil Hughes           The Balls

11. Paul Maholm         Adrian's Revenge

12. Matt Gamel           Macafey

Comments: Gaby Sanchez appears to be the favorite to win the Marlins’ first base job, and I’m interested to see what he’ll do based on the numbers he had in Double A last year.  David DeJesus can be boring, but he won’t hurt you anywhere.  Matt Gamel has had a very good minor league career, but his defense might keep him from being a regular at third.  He hasn’t played yet in spring training, but his bat is one to stash away because at some point the Brewers will tire of Bill Hall and Mike Lamb.  I don’t think Phil Hughes starts for the Yankees this year unless someone gets injured, and Brubaker has already dropped him.  I think Jonathan Sanchez is a good pick, because of his elite strikeout ability when healthy.  Freddy Sanchez hit .344 two years ago, but he’s been in decline since then.  He doesn’t steal bases or hit for much power, but he’s a decent player to stash on your bench in case he gets hot.  Brad Penny has yet to pitch in spring training due to shoulder issues, and I don’t think he’ll be much more than a matchups guy this year.  Juan Rivera has been overlooked in recent years due to injury, but he can hit when healthy and it’s assumed that the Angels will give him at bats because of the three-year contract they signed him to. 

Round Eighteen

1. Nick Swisher           Macafey

2. Josh Fields              Adrian's Revenge

3. Dioner Navarro       The Balls

4. Jerry Owens            Naterade

5. Kosuke Fukudome  The $5 Footlongs

6. Grant Balfour          Screaming Lemurs

7. Cody Ross              Tossers

8. David Murphy        Summer Fox

9. Takashi Saito           Butt Admirals

10. Josh Anderson      Order of the Phoenix

11. Andruw Jones       Orc Mischief

12. Wandy Rodriguez Dissect Yourself

Comments: It’s the last round, and owners are filling out bench spots by speculating on steals, playing time, power and upside.  Most of these players will not finish the year on the same team, and in fact a few have already been dropped.  Navarro is a serviceable catcher, but Brubaker dropped him for Kelly Shoppach, a move with which I agree.  I needed more power on my team, and I was happy to get Josh Fields since he should get most of the playing time at third base for the White Sox, and he has the upside to hit 25 HR.  Andruw Jones could pull a Sammy Sosa for the Rangers, but I don’t think he’ll be anything more than a part-time player for them.  Josh Anderson looks like the front-runner for the Braves centerfield spot, and he could be a good source for steals and batting average.  Same with Jerry Owens if he can get playing time.  Cody Ross has decent power and could hit 20 HR this year.  Not a bad player to have on your bench.  How much value David Murphy has this year will depend on how much playing time he gets, but he’s a good speculative bench fodder pick.  I think Wandy Rodriguez will have a lot of value because of his strikeout ability, especially as a matchups guy.

Well, there you have it, my analysis of our 2009 league draft.  Thanks for the comments and I hope to be back next week with some more comments and speculation.

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Draft Analysis- Part Two

Time for the second installment in our three-part look at our recent fantasy baseball draft.  Please see the previous post for the first part.

Round Seven

1. Ian Stewart             Dissect Yourself

2. Mark Reynolds       Orc Mischief

3. Justin Verlander      Order of the Phoenix

4. Chris Carpenter       Butt Admirals

5. Willy Taveras          Summer Fox

6. Adam LaRoche       Tossers

7. Javier Vazquez        Screaming Lemurs

8. Matt Cain                The $5 Footlongs

9. Rickie Weeks          Naterade

10. Derek Lowe          The Balls

11. Scott Baker           Adrian's Revenge

12. Milton Bradley      Macafey

Comments: There’s a lot of picks to like here.  I’m glad I got Scott Baker; he’s one of the top pitchers I wanted to get in the middle rounds.  Derek Lowe and Matt Cain are good picks as well.  Mark Reynolds is a solid source of power as a corner infielder, though he will hurt your batting average.  Ian Stewart’s bat will play well due to his eligibility at second base.  I know Weeks has disappointed owners in the past, but he does provide you with double-digit HR and SB as a middle infielder.  He’s only 26, so a breakout year is still possible, but his poor batting average is a killer.  I’m not a Milton Bradley fan, as his production is tied to his health, and his health has never been good.  He can hit for average, but last year was the first time he ever hit more than 20 HR in a season.  At age 30, there’s not much upside here.  Justin Verlander is a good pick as I think he can be good again if he’s healthy.

Best Pick: Javier Vazquez

I think Vazquez is underrated.  He is a great source for strikeouts and he’s very durable.  He hasn’t ever had good ERA seasons, but I feel that the move to the NL can only help him.  I think he’s a great pick here.

Worst Pick: Chris Carpenter

Carpenter has made 4 starts in the last two seasons because of injury.  He has talent and could still be a great pitcher, but I don’t think you can roster the risk he represents when so many other consistent and talented pitchers are still on the board like Vazquez, Cain, Lowe and Baker.  This is a very risky pitcher being added to a staff already saddled with risk.

Round Eight

1. Jim Thome   Macafey

2. Mark DeRosa          Adrian's Revenge

3. Carlos Gomez         The Balls

4. Billy Butler             Naterade

5. Kerry Wood            The $5 Footlongs

6. Matt Garza              Screaming Lemurs

7. Ted Lilly                 Tossers

8. Ryan Dempster       Summer Fox

9. Huston Street          Butt Admirals

10. Kelly Johnson       Order of the Phoenix

11. Brad Ziegler          Orc Mischief

12. Chris Young          Dissect Yourself

Comments: I wish Weeks had made it to me, but he didn’t so I ended up taking DeRosa.  I was hoping that Kelly Johnson would stick around for my next pick, but Mark scooped him up.  Ted Lilly is another underrated pitcher who will give you good strikeouts and a decent ERA.  More closers are taken off the board, though it isn’t certain as of now if Ziegler will be closing over Joey Devine in Oakland.  Jim Thome was a good pick here because he can still provide power.  His stats last year were not far off from Dunn’s, though Thome is a decade older.  Gomez has speed, but he needs to learn how to hit.  Apparently he’s a great defender, so hopefully that will keep him in the field when his bat goes cold.

Best Pick: Ryan Dempster

Dempster is not likely to repeat last year’s numbers, but he has talent and I think he’ll have a good season.  People weren’t buying into last year’s performance, so he slid and the Summer Fox was able to capitalize.  Good value for this round.

Worst Pick: Billy Butler

Butler really hasn’t shown much in the his one and a half seasons in the league; though he is very young and could show growth this year, there were a few offensive players still to be had in later rounds with more proven track records.  Butler will be 23 this year, and he still has time to be a good player, but I’m not sure it will be this year.

Round Nine

1. Michael Bourn        Dissect Yourself

2. Orlando Cabrera     Orc Mischief

3. Fausto Carmona      Order of the Phoenix

4. Brian Wilson           Butt Admirals

5. Mike Napoli            Summer Fox

6. Chris Iannetta         Tossers

7. Heath Bell               Screaming Lemurs

8. Trevor Hoffman      The $5 Footlongs

9. Clayton Kershaw    Naterade

10. Brett Myers           The Balls

11. Orlando Hudson   Adrian's Revenge

12. Yunel Escobar       Macafey

Comments: This round is mostly catchers, middle infielders, and closers as teams try to round out their rosters.  Of the two Orlandos taken in this round, I’d rather have Cabrera, if only because Hudson might not be completely healthy this year.  Carmona solid pick if he can come close to repeat his success from 2007; he’s only 25 and he was hurt last year, so a rebound is definitely possible.  Michael Bourn is similar to Carlos Gomez in that they were both speedsters with batting average issues, but Bourn hit worse last year and he’s probably on a shorter leash since the Astros didn’t give up the best pitcher in baseball to get him.  I’m not a fan of Bourn. 

Best Pick: Chris Iannetta

I think Iannetta is a great value for this round and I think he could possibly be a top-five catcher this year.  I like him better than Mike Napoli, but only because of the Coors Field factor and the fact that Napoli is recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be ready for Opening Day. 

Worst Pick: Trevor Hoffman

I am not a Hoffman fan (even though he is from my hometown); I think he’s too old and I think he’ll miss pitching at Petco.  Hoffman should get saves and is not a bad option at closer because he’ll have the role to himself, but I look at the closers that were taken the next round and I think that Jonathan could have taken a better option.  I think Joel Hanrahan will be better than Hoffman this year, and I think guys like Matt Lindstrom and Joey Devine could be just as good (though Devine is still battling Brad Ziegler for the closer’s role).  Troy Percival went four rounds later than Hoffman and I think he’s a comparable reliever for this season.  There was better value to be had this round.

Round Ten

1. Brandon Morrow    Macafey

2. Joel Hanrahan         Adrian's Revenge

3. Frank Francisco       The Balls

4. Matt Lindstrom       Naterade

5. Kevin Slowey         The $5 Footlongs

6. Chris Perez              Screaming Lemurs

7. Aaron Harang         Tossers

8. Joey Devine                        Summer Fox

9. Bengie Molina         Butt Admirals

10. Mike Gonzalez      Order of the Phoenix

11. Chien-Ming Wang Orc Mischief

12. Chris Volstad        Dissect Yourself

Comments: What began in the previous round has turned into a full-blown run on closers as six closer candidates are taken this round.  I think all of the closers taken in this round will be handed the role for their respective teams on Opening Day.  I think Bengie Molina was a good pick this round; he tends to be underrated, but he had a really good season last year and he’s one of the few decent offensive players that the Giants have, so he’ll get a lot of chances for RBI.  I think Harang is underrated as well this year; he had a subpar season last year, possibly due to overuse, but he did finish the year strong with a good September.  I think he rebounds somewhat this year, probably not to his 2006-2007 numbers, but enough put him among the top 30 pitchers.

Best Pick: Kevin Slowey

I really like Slowey, and I think people look at the 3.99 ERA and don’t realize how good he actually was last year.  He’s a control artist who can still give you good strikeout numbers, and he had a better BB/9 ratio than everyone except Greg Maddux last year.  He’ll be 25 this year and I think he’s going to be at least a top-25 pitcher in 2009.

Worst Pick: Brandon Morrow

Morrow has talent, but I don’t think he’s going to show that talent as a starter, at least not based on his 2008 splits.  He was amazing as a reliever, with a miniscule 0.90 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 11.43, but those numbers dropped 1.46 and 9.00 in his 5 starts last year.  I’m not certain that he’s best suited as a starter, and I can’t advocate taking him over pitchers such as Harang and Slowey.  Though this news wasn’t available at the time of the draft, it looks like Morrow is suffering from a sore elbow and might miss the start of the season.  I can’t penalize Tim for not being aware of this when he picked Morrow since it hadn’t been reported yet, but it does represent some of the risk that comes with drafting starters who are converting from relief.

Round Eleven

1. Chad Qualls            Dissect Yourself

2. Jose Gullen              Orc Mischief

3. Jeff Francoeur         Order of the Phoenix

4. Chase Headley        Butt Admirals

5. Hiroki Kuroda         Summer Fox

6. Travis Hafner          Tossers

7. John Danks             Screaming Lemurs

8. Edwin Encarnacion The $5 Footlongs

9. Randy Johnson       Naterade

10. Gavin Floyd          The Balls

11. Melvin Mora         Adrian's Revenge

12. Jose Arredondo     Macafey

Comments: Edwin Encarnacion was a solid pick by Jonathan this round, and it threw me off as I had to scramble to find someone to fill my CI spot.  I ended up taking Mora, but I should have taken Mike Jacobs.  Kuroda is a good pitcher, and Rogstad made a good choice taking him here.  Qualls looks like he could be a solid choice for saves this year.  I’m not a Chase Headley fan, but I think he’ll have numbers comparable to JD Drew and Francoeur, but with a bit more upside.  Speaking of Francoeur, I’m not really certain what happened to him last year, but he’s young enough to bounce back.  I don’t think he hits .290 with 30 HR, but he should improve on last year’s numbers.  Jose Arredondo won’t be the closer to start the season, but he has a lot of talent and could quickly replace Brian Fuentes if Fuentes falters or is hurt. 

Best Pick: Randy Johnson

I think Johnson has one more season left in the tank.  At the very least he gives you great strikeout totals, and he’ll be moving to a much more pitcher-friendly park this year.  I think Johnson will slip into the top 30 pitchers by the end of the season.

Worst Pick: Gavin Floyd

I think this was a bad pick considering the pitchers that went in the next couple of rounds.  Floyd had great win totals last year, but he gives up too many walks and too many home runs.  That’s a bad combination for a pitcher to have.  I think Brubaker was seduced by his Wins and ERA in 2008, but I don’t think Floyd will be that pitcher in 2009.

Round Twelve

1. George Sherrill        Macafey

2. Gil Meche               Adrian's Revenge

3. Shin-Soo Choo        The Balls

4. Jered Weaver          Naterade

5. Chris Ray                The $5 Footlongs

6. Johnny Cueto          Screaming Lemurs

7. Mark Buehrle          Tossers

8. Jamie Moyer            Summer Fox

9. Elvis Andrus           Butt Admirals

10. Matt LaPorta         Order of the Phoenix

11. Fernando Rodney Orc Mischief

12. JD Drew                Dissect Yourself

Comments: I was happy to take Meche in this round; he’s underrated because of the team he plays for, but he won 14 games for them to go with 183 strikeouts.  He made up for a poor first month by never having an ERA over 3.65 the rest of the season.  George Sherrill was named the Orioles’ closer last week, but Chris Ray will be ready to step in if he blows it.  I have no idea who will have more saves, but I’m leaning towards Sherrill right now since he’s the manager’s choice to close.  Andrus is very young and will probably be inconsistent, but he can run and should chip in 20 steals if he gets a full season’s worth of playing time.  LaPorta is a solid minor-league prospect, but it seems that Mark will have to wait a little while for him to be promoted.  Rodney could be the Tigers’ closer this season, but it seems just as likely that it could be Brandon Lyon. 

Best Pick: Johnny Cueto

I wanted to get Cueto, but he probably wasn’t going to last another round.  Cueto had a rough first season in 2008, causing this once-hyped prospect’s draft stock to fall, but he still has the skills he showed in the minors and I think he’ll improve on last year’s numbers in his second time around.  Cueto had a great K/9 rate last year, and I think he just needs some more major league experience to season his ability.  Remember, he’s only 23.

Worst Pick: Jamie Moyer

Moyer has had a long and successful career, but does anyone really expect him to win 16 games again?  He doesn’t strike anyone out, and last year’s ERA of 3.71 was the first time he’s had an ERA under 4.00 since 2003.  I’m not saying Moyer doesn’t have value, but there were better pitchers available.

Check back tomorrow for our third and final installment in our league's draft analysis.  

 

 

 

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Draft Analysis - Part One

Let’s take a look at our recently concluded draft.  I will list the results for each round, followed by a few summary remarks and what I feel were the best and worst picks for each round.  This will be posted in three parts over the next couple of days.  I have a feeling it will engender some debate among our league and I look forward to being deemed a “noob” by Mark.  For those who aren’t part of this league and are wondering about its structure, this is a 12-team keeper league in a Head-to-Head format at Yahoo.  Each team keeps 7 players from last year without penalty.  Here are each team’s keepers:

Dissect Yourself

Owner: Micah

1. Brian Roberts

2. Troy Tulowitzki

3. Dan Uggla

4. Matt Holliday

5. Alfonso Soriano

6. Jay Bruce

7. CC Sabathia

Orc Mischief

Owner: Clint

1. Carlos Peña

2. Chipper Jones

3. Derek Jeter

4. Joe Mauer

5. Matt Kemp

6. Johnny Damon

7. Johan Santana

Order of the Phoenix

Owner: Mark

1. Lance Berkman

2. José Reyes

3. Vernon Wells

4. Josh Hamilton

5. David Ortiz

6. Scott Kazmir

7. Jonathan Papelbon

Butt Admirals

Owner: Kimball

1. Prince Fielder

2. Dustin Pedroia

3. Joey Votto

4. Grady Sizemore

5. Nate McLouth

6. Vladimir Guerrero

7. Dan Haren

Summer Fox

Owner: Rogstad

1. Brandon Phillips

2. Stephen Drew

3. Ichiro Suzuki

4. Manny Ramírez

5. Jason Bay

6. John Lackey

7. Daisuke Matsuzaka

Tossers

Owner: Troost

1. Conor Jackson

2. Álex Rodríguez

3. Michael Young

4. Corey Hart

5. Torii Hunter

6. Jonathan Broxton

7. Francisco Cordero

Screaming Lemurs

Owner: Ben P.

1. Ian Kinsler

2. Aramis Ramírez

3. Ryan Braun

4. Carl Crawford

5. Curtis Granderson

6. Cole Hamels

7. Brandon Webb

The $5 Footlongs! (previously known as the Dinos)

Owner: Jonathan

1. Miguel Cabrera

2. Chase Utley

3. Albert Pujols

4. Carlos Beltrán

5. Jacoby Ellsbury

6. Bobby Abreu

7. Tim Lincecum

Naterade

Owner: Nate

1. Russell Martin

2. Justin Morneau

3. Evan Longoria

4. Nick Markakis

5. Justin Upton

6. Félix Hernández

7. Chad Billingsley

The Balls

Owner: Brubaker

1. Ryan Howard

2. Hanley Ramírez

3. Adrián González

4. Carlos Quentin

5. Shane Victorino

6. Jake Peavy

7. Joe Nathan

Adrian's Revenge

Owner: Ben W.

1. Mark Teixeira

2. Carlos Lee

3. Brian McCann

4. Hunter Pence

5. Ryan Zimmerman

6. Chris Young

7. Ervin Santana

Macafey

Owner: Tim

1. Geovany Soto

2. Derrek Lee

3. David Wright

4. Jimmy Rollins

5. B.J. Upton

6. Álex Ríos

7. Roy Halladay

Round One

1. Chris Davis             Dissect Yourself

2. Alexei Ramirez       Orc Mischief

3. Francisco Liriano    Order of the Phoenix

4. Brad Lidge              Butt Admirals

5. Kevin Youkilis        Summer Fox

6. Roy Oswalt             Tossers

7. Adam Dunn            Screaming Lemurs

8. Rafael Furcal           The $5 Footlongs

9. Robinson Cano       Naterade

10. Aubrey Huff         The Balls

11. Magglio Ordonez  Adrian's Revenge

12. Matt Wieters         Macafey

Comments: Pretty different from the way I thought things were going to turn out.  I felt that Adam Dunn was a little bit of a reach for the first round, but I find no fault with the Lemurs taking him here since he might not have been there the next time around.  It seems like the Butt Admirals reached on Brad Lidge, since there were other comparable closers available the next round.  A lot of teams are trying to find their next keepers in this round; I had a later pick so I just went with the best hitter available. 

Best Pick: Rafael Furcal

I think he’s going to be healthy and have a really good season in ’09.  I wish he had fallen a few more spots to me.

Worst Pick: Matt Wieters

This pick’s status as the worst depends on what roster moves Tim makes during the season.  Matt Wieters is probably the best hitting prospect in the league, but Tim already has a young catcher in Geovany Soto.  Taking Wieters doesn’t really make sense here since it’s not certain that he won’t spend the first two months of the season in the minors.  This pick only makes sense if Tim is planning on trading one of these two catchers sometime during the season.  If that happens, how we will look on this pick in the future will depend on who Tim receives in return. 

Round Two

1. Yovani Gallardo     Macafey

2. James Shields          Adrian's Revenge

3. Jermaine Dye          The Balls

4. Josh Beckett            Naterade

5. Mariano Rivera       The $5 Footlongs

6. Victor Martinez       Screaming Lemurs

7. Cliff Lee                    Tossers

8. Garrett Atkins         Summer Fox

9. Rich Harden            Butt Admirals

10. Ryan Ludwick      Order of the Phoenix

11. Jon Lester              Orc Mischief

12. Francisco Rodriguez Dissect Yourself

Comments: A couple more closers go in this round.  I think Gallardo is primed to have a good year.  I am not a Cliff Lee fan, and I think Troost would have been better off passing on him and getting someone like Jon Lester or Adam Wainwright.  It’s my opinion that Victor Martinez will bounce back this year; the Lemurs probably could have waited to take another catcher like Kelly Shoppach or Bengie Molina, but I’m not certain who they would have taken in this round instead.

Best Pick: Jon Lester

I really like Lester and I think he’ll have a strong season, better than Lee or Harden.

Worst Pick: Rich Harden

Harden has average 14 starts a season for the past 4 years, and he’s only made 25 or more starts in a season twice.  He has talent, but I think the injury risk he represents is too great to for him to be a good pick in this round, especially with so many other options available.

Round Three

1. Ryan Doumit          Dissect Yourself

2. Brad Hawpe            Orc Mischief

3. Brian Fuentes          Order of the Phoenix

4. Chone Figgins         Butt Admirals

5. Carlos Delgado       Summer Fox

6. Raul Ibanez             Tossers

7. JJ Hardy                 Screaming Lemurs

8. Howie Kendrick     The $5 Footlongs

9. Andre Ethier           Naterade

10. Mike Aviles           The Balls

11. Joakim Soria          Adrian's Revenge

12. Adam Wainwright Macafey

Comments: Owners focused mostly on offensive players this round, with a couple closers taken as well.  There’s a small focus on middle infielders with the picks of Hardy, Kendrick and Aviles.  I like Brad Hawpe, and I think he’ll have a good year as he tries to replace Matt Holliday’s RBI production.  Raul Ibanez is another decent pick; he’s on a three-year roll in which he’s never had less than 105 RBI or hit worse than .289.  He’s also averaged 157 games played over that same period, a testament to his durability.  He should post similar numbers for the Phillies, as he’s moving to a better team and a better ballpark.

Best Pick: J.J. Hardy

I think Hardy is going to have a great season, but he’s the best pick in this round because he was the best middle infielder available, and it’s a long drop to the next best available middle infielder.  The Lemurs are not going to have to worry about choosing between players like Kaz Matsui and Clint Barmes later on.

Worst Pick: Chone Figgins

I’m not a Figgins fan.  He hasn’t been very durable the past two years, and he really doesn’t provide you good value in any category aside from stolen bases, which have been in decline for the past four seasons.  He’s had one stellar season of batting average in the past three years, which seems to skew his perceived value upwards, sandwiched by two mediocre ones.  I think Kimball could have picked a player with more offensive talent in this round, like Hawpe or Pat Burrell.  It’s possible that Figgins would have still been around by Kimball’s next pick.

Round Four

1. Nelson Cruz            Macafey

2. Jhonny Peralta         Adrian's Revenge

3. Carlos Marmol        The Balls

4. Lastings Milledge   Naterade

5. A.J. Burnett            The $5 Footlongs

6. James Loney           Screaming Lemurs

7. Bobby Jenks            Tossers

8. Joba Chamberlain    Summer Fox

9. Edinson Volquez    Butt Admirals

10. Pat Burrell             Order of the Phoenix

11. Jose Valverde        Orc Mischief

12. BJ Ryan                Dissect Yourself

Comments: I think Tim reached for Cruz in this round; Cruz is a good speculative pick, but he had a very poor track record in the majors prior to last season, and I’m not certain that he’ll be this year’s Ryan Ludwick.  Tim could have taken Lastings Milledge instead, who showed promise over nearly a full season last year and has more room for growth than Cruz.  Marmol is a fantastic reliever, but I’ve read that Kevin Gregg is the front runner for the closer’s spot so far this spring.  Four more relievers are taken from the board this round.  I’m surprised Mark didn’t try to take Burnett before this round since he was thinking about keeping him.  The Admirals took Volquez at the right spot, right after all of the proven pitchers were taken.  I had to take Peralta this round since I missed out on Hardy.

Best Pick: Lastings Milledge

He seems primed to take the next step forward after a decent full year in 2008.  He could be a 20/20 player as soon as this season, and he looks like a solid keeper.  The Nationals beefed up their lineup with Adam Dunn, which can only help Milledge’s value.

Worst Pick: James Loney

I’m a big fan of Loney as a player, but I don’t like him nearly as much in fantasy, especially in this round with other corner infielders available.  Loney won’t provide the power that you’d want from his position, though he is a career .303 hitter.  I don’t think he’s going to be much more than what he’s already shown us: a low-power, good-average first baseman.  Is Loney that much more valuable than a guy like Adam LaRoche, who will hit for less average but can provide ten more home runs and similar RBI numbers?  I think Loney is a little more valuable because of his youth, but LaRoche went three rounds later.

Round 5

1. Adrian Beltre          Dissect Yourself

2. Rick Ankiel             Orc Mischief

3. Pablo Sandoval       Order of the Phoenix

4. Jorge Cantu             Butt Admirals

5. Placido Polanco      Summer Fox

6. Jose Lopez             Tossers

7. Alex Gordon           Screaming Lemurs

8. Adam Jones           The $5 Footlongs

9. Matt Capps             Naterade

10. Xavier Nady         The Balls

11. Cameron Maybin  Adrian's Revenge

12. Josh Johnson         Macafey

Comments: I like a lot of picks in this round.  Beltre is a solid pick at third base, providing you 25 HR and double-digit steals.  Pablo Sandoval is a good pick by Mark; when it happened, I didn’t think too much of it, but I like it more now that I realize he is catcher eligible in our league due to the 11 games he played at the position last year.  Alex Gordon could be ready for a breakout season in his third year; his OPS has risen by a hundred points in the second half of his first two seasons, a possible sign that he’s been able to figure pitchers out better the more he plays.  Matt Capps is an underrated closer because of the team he plays for, but I think he’s just as good or better than closers like Jenks or Ryan.  Since Milledge and Adam Jones had already been taken, both of whom I had been targeting as young outfielders with upside, I reached a little for Maybin, who only has 81 career at bats, but he’ll be given the chance to succeed this year as the Marlins’ centerfielder.  Maybin’s talented, and I needed a young player with star-upside to build around, so I’ll be happy if he can put up numbers comparable to Milledge or Jones last year.

Best Pick: Rick Ankiel

Despite his age, last year was Ankiel’s first full-season as a major-league hitter, and he’s talented enough to improve on last year’s numbers.  He’ll hit 30 HR if he can get 500 at bats, which he will do if he stays healthy.  At the very least, he should be a clone of Pat Burrell, who went the previous round.

Worst Pick: Xavier Nady

Brubaker might have been suckered in by this former Padres prospect’s career year, but Nady is a 30-year-old part-time player whose career average is .280 and whose 555 at bats last year represent a career-high.  Nady’s numbers in 59 games with the Yankees are more representative of the type of player he’s been throughout his career. What concerns me is that he’s not guaranteed to have 500 at bats again this year; Nady will have to share playing with Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui among the corner outfield spots and at DH.  I don’t think Nady will come close to last year’s numbers.

Round 6

1. Erik Bedard            Macafey

2. Zack Greinke          Adrian's Revenge

3. Ricky Nolasco         The Balls

4. Miguel Tejada         Naterade

5. Delmon Young       The $5 Footlongs

6. David Price             Screaming Lemurs

7. Jayson Werth          Tossers

8. Ken Griffey Jr.        Summer Fox

9. Ryan Theriot           Butt Admirals

10. Paul Konerko        Order of the Phoenix

11. Max Scherzer        Orc Mischief

12. Carlos Zambrano   Dissect Yourself

Comments: Teams are starting to fill out their pitching staffs, and there are a few intriguing picks here.  Bedard could be a steal in this round if he’s completely recovered from last year’s shoulder injury.  Nolasco could be another great pick if he’s not worn down from last year’s career-high 212 innings pitched.  Zambrano’s stats have been in decline the past few seasons, but this seems like the right place for him to be taken.  Jayson Werth is a solid 20/20 outfielder if he can get to 500 at bats.  We’re still waiting for Delmon Young’s career to take off, but he would be great value here if he can improve in Minnesota, though he will be battling for playing time with three other outfielders.  I don’t like taking Miguel Tejada in this round; he’s an older player whose skills have diminished and whose off-the-field legal problems could overshadow his time with the Astros. 

Best Pick: Zack Greinke

Greinke has improved greatly over the past two years, and I think he’s underrated as a starting pitcher.  Last year in the second half, his 9.08 K/9 ratio was better than CC Sabathia, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Javier Vazquez, Chad Billingsley, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, and Cole Hamels.  His K/BB ratio of 3.95 was better than Lincecum, Burnett, and Shields.  He’s only 25, and I think he’ll be getting better this season.

Worst Pick: Ken Griffey Jr.

Over at ESPN, Griffey’s average draft position is 197.  Rogstad took him with the 152^nd pick.  I don’t think Griffey will hit more than 15 HR this year.  Other offensive players available: Milton Bradley, Adam LaRoche, Willy Taveras, Mark Reynolds, Kelly Johnson, Jim Thome, Orlando Cabrera.  I don’t feel like saying anything more.

Check back tomorrow for the second part of my draft analysis.

 

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First Round Mock Draft

Now that we have everyone’s keepers submitted, we can see which players are going to be available.  I’m going to do a quick mock draft of the first round, just to see how it might play out.  I will list each team’s keepers and then which player I think they should take.  Let’s see how things might play out when we draft this weekend.

Pick 1

Dissect Yourself

Brian Roberts

Troy Tulowitzki

Dan Uggla

Matt Holliday

Alfonso Soriano

Jay Bruce

CC Sabathia

They Draft: Kevin Youkilis

Though there are some ace pitchers still available such as Roy Oswalt, Dissect Yourself already has CC Sabathia and I think they would be best served to fill in one of their corner infield spots.  The best corner infielder available is Youkilis, and they’ll be able to play him at first or third.

Pick 2

Orc Mischief (previously known as Self Indulgence)

Joe Mauer

Carlos Pena

Chipper Jones

Derek Jeter

Matt Kemp

Johnny Damon

Johan Santana

They Draft: Alexei Ramirez

I could see them taking Oswalt as well, or an outfielder like Magglio Ordonez, but I think they have to look at position scarcity here and pick Ramirez.  A lot of people are high on Ramirez this year, and he could be a top-five second baseman this year.  Orc Mischief needs a bit more power on their team, but it’s always easier to find power later on in the draft, and Ramirez will give them a good mixture of power and speed.

Pick 3

Order of the Phoenix (previously known as Val Kilmer’s Asshole)

Lance Berkman

Jose Reyes

Vernon Wells

Josh Hamilton

David Ortiz

Scott Kazmir

Jonathan Papelbon

They Draft: Roy Oswalt

Order of the Phoenix has a solid offense and a dominant closer; what they need here is to solidify their starting rotation.  Oswalt is the best value on the board here, and having him will help if/when Kazmir misses a few starts.

Pick 4

Butt Admirals

Prince Fielder

Dustin Pedroia

Joey Votto

Grady Sizemore

Nate McLouth

Vladimir Guerrero

Dan Haren

They Draft: Chris Davis

I think they have to take an infielder here, though dominant closers like Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, and Brad Lidge are available.  I think there are enough closers available that they will be able to get someone like Brian Fuentes or Jose Valverde with their next two picks.  Davis is only 23 and has a lot of upside, especially as a power hitter.  I think the Admirals have to take him here, if only because he could be a solid keeper for the next six years.

Pick 5

Summer Fox

Brandon Phillips

Stephen Drew

Ichiro Suzuki

Manny Ramirez

Jason Bay

John Lackey

Daisuke Matsuzaka

They Draft: Magglio Ordonez

Summer Fox doesn’t need another pitcher in this round, so they take the best hitter available.  If they don’t take Ordonez, the next best hitters that will fall to them will probably be Aubrey Huff, Raul Ibanez, or Garrett Atkins.  Ordonez won’t give them much power, but he hasn’t hit worse than .292 in the past decade, and he’ll have a shot at 100 RBI again because of the strong offense around him.

Pick 6

Tossers

Conor Jackson

Alex Rodriguez

Michael Young

Corey Hart

Torii Hunter

Jonathan Broxton

Francisco Cordero

They Draft: Francisco Liriano

The Tossers definitely don’t need to take a closer, so I think they go with the pick with the most upside here.  Liriano could be an elite pitcher this year if he’s fully back from Tommy John surgery, which is why I think he should be taken over James Shields.  The Tossers need to swing for the fences with this first pick if they want to get back into playoff contention.  On sadder note, I’m sorry about the Alex Rodriguez injury.  He’ll be impossible to replace for the first month.

Pick 7

Screaming Lemurs

Ian Kinsler

Aramis Ramirez

Ryan Braun

Carl Crawford

Curtis Granderson

Cole Hamels

Brandon Webb

They Draft: Mariano Rivera

I’m not really certain what the Lemurs do here.  They need a power bat, but they’d have to reach to get one with this pick.  They could draft Rafael Furcal and stock up on some speed, but I think they pass on him because of his recent injury history.  I think they go with the best player available, and that’s probably Mariano Rivera.  Joakim Soria and Brad Lidge are also available, but Rivera was lights out last year.  This is a risky pick since Rivera did have shoulder surgery this offseason, but it was deemed minor and he does appear to be healthy.

Pick 8

Dinos

Miguel Cabrera

Chase Utley

Albert Pujols

Carlos Beltran

Jacoby Ellsbury

Bobby Abreu

Tim Lincecum

They Draft: Brad Lidge

The Dinos are pretty set at offense this round, though they could take Furcal to solidify their infield.  James Shields is also an option here, but I think he slides down farther, plus the Dinos are probably feeling pretty good about waiting to draft another starter since they already have Lincecum.  I think they take a closer here, and it will be Lidge over Soria.  Lidge did report some tightness in his forearm in spring training, but he said he felt better after pitching a bullpen session recently.  Lidge plays for a team that will give him more save chances, and he strikeouts out more hitters than Soria.

Pick 9

Naterade

Russell Martin

Justin Morneau

Evan Longoria

Nick Markakis

Justin Upton

Felix Hernandez

Chad Billingsley

They Draft: Jermaine Dye

They could take Furcal or Soria, but I think they take a veteran hitter here with power.  Dye is getting older but he has been pretty consistent the past four years, despite a fluctuating batting average.  Dye should come close to hitting 30 HR again with 100 RBI, so I think he gets picked here.

Pick 10

The Balls

Ryan Howard

Hanley Ramirez

Adrian Gonzalez

Carlos Quentin

Shane Victorino

Jake Peavy

Joe Nathan

They Draft: James Shields

I don’t think Shields can fall any further than here.  Shields is probably the best player available, though I think The Balls could use another hitter, but they’d have to reach for Aubrey Huff or Garrett Atkins.  They don’t need another closer, so I think they add pitching depth and wait for another hitter next round.

Pick 11

Adrian’s Revenge

Brian McCann

Mark Teixiera

Ryan Zimmerman

Carlos Lee

Hunter Pence

Chris B. Young

Ervin Santana

I Draft: Rafael Furcal

This is my pick, and I take the best offensive player available.

Pick 12

Macafeys

Geovany Soto

Derrek Lee

David Wright

Jimmy Rollins

BJ Upton

Alex Rios

Roy Halladay

They Draft: Joakim Soria or Josh Beckett

The Macafeys have two picks in a row, so they can do pretty much whatever they want here.  I think they take a pitcher, and it will probably be Soria or Beckett, though Francisco Rodriguez or Zack Greinke is also available.

Let me know what you think by leaving a comment.  We’ll see how closely the real draft follows this one next week.

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